The Road to Qatar.

[Obinna]

29 minutes ago, Scottie said:

This is a total nitpick, but the long memory of voyageurs always amuses me. The Ukraine friendly was nearly 10 years ago in october 2010, while the Austria friendly was 14 years ago in february 2006!

Feels like yesterday

[grigorio]

What it kinda feels some of us are forgetting here is that we need to amass way more points than ES to make up the ground and get ahead. Sure they maybe stayed “in hiding” this month but that won’t remain true. They’ve shown a willingness to play friendlies. Assuming that picks back up they can just play the same likes of teams we are suggesting we play to stay ahead forcing us to roll the dice big. At some point we have to do something BIG that they can’t. 

[archer21]

1 minute ago, grigorio said:

What it kinda feels some of us are forgetting here is that we need to amass way more points than ES to make up the ground and get ahead. Sure they maybe stayed “in hiding” this month but that won’t remain true. They’ve shown a willingness to play friendlies. Assuming that picks back up they can just play the same likes of teams we are suggesting we play to stay ahead forcing us to roll the dice big. At some point we have to do something BIG that they can’t. 

Agreed, but let’s make them start playing games first of all. Say we do what I suggested and go for 8 points in March. They may decide to play 2 weak teams to try to get 6 points. If they lose one of those games, now we’re in the lead heading into the final window. If they win, THEN we go all out in the final window and play some really big teams.

[dyslexic nam]

Yeah, all we can do is just put pressure on them by winning games and getting points.  If they waste the next window as well with “pointless” games, we can close the ground even more.  After that, we can reassess what is needed and whether or not we need to go for the Hail Mary by playing risky teams for higher potential points.  

[Shway]

This is what I think about when I see everyone trying to figure out how much points we need to get to the hex!

 I can't keep up with the hypotheticals. 

 

[Daryn27]

15 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

You're heading down a confusing path if you want to do the 3rd party results comparison.. the USA also drew France in 2018.  

I followed Ukraine in qualifiers, they are very impressive but I still think we could take them.   We have some pretty impressive players too..  3 of the players on Ukraine are David's club mates at Gent, including one who scored against Portugal, but none are as valuable as him.  Then they have Zinchenko... we have Davies who is arguably better as well.  Still, I'd say they're a tier ahead of us but there's nothing overly intimidating about them where I would rule out a result.  In 10 matches they would probably win 6, draw 3 and lose 1 against us.    

Ok yes we have Davies, and David they have Zinchenko, Yarmelenko, Tskangkov and Konyplanka Ukraine is in the top Tier of Europe now they just won their Nations League Group and are now in League A, they easily won their Euro Qualifying group and can easily compete it seems with the top nations of Europe. If you think we shouldn’t be “overly intimidated” by them then Canada and we can compete on an consistent basis with them we should have no problem in the Hex or with Mexico or the USA on a regular basis.

 

Ukraine would be the team to beat right now in CONCACAF if they had the squad they do now and played in our region or atleast on even par with Mexico as atleast Ukraine had made it to the Round of 8 in a World Cup.(And yes I know you said we would only beat them 1 time but I think that’s a stretch when was the last time we beat Mexico it took us 34 years to beat the USA and Ukraine is way stronger than them).

Edited January 10, 2020 by Daryn27

[Rivaldo]

12 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Also something to consider but may not be feasible given the added costs of hosting a friendly, we would have a huge advantage playing in Toronto in March against warm weather nations. I would be super confident in us coming out with 7 points from a Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago doubleheader.

If we have a home match in March it will be in Vancouver. Canada has never (in modern history, anyway) played a home match outside BC in March or even April. No nation will agree to play a friendly in Toronto (or Edmonton, etc.) in March.

On 1/8/2020 at 2:50 PM, N1ckbr0wn said:

For March window, I think viable opponents who will get us good ranking points AND we have a chance of beating are:

Sweden, Poland, USA, Wales, Ukraine, Austria

theyre all tough bouts but that’s the type of situation we’re in right now. I feel like we’re around the level of all those teams

The USA won't play us again so soon after the two Nations League matches.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

There's been a June FIFA ranking published every year since 2010, so I don't know how much I believe this schedule. But, if Concacaf base the seeding on July rankings instead of June it makes this process even more complicated.

[CanadaFan123]

8 hours ago, Daryn27 said:

Ok yes we have Davies, and David they have Zinchenko, Yarmelenko, Tskangkov and Konyplanka Ukraine is in the top Tier of Europe now they just won their Nations League Group and are now in League A, they easily won their Euro Qualifying group and can easily compete it seems with the top nations of Europe. If you think we shouldn’t be “overly intimidated” by them then Canada and we can compete on an consistent basis with them we should have no problem in the Hex or with Mexico or the USA on a regular basis.

 

Ukraine would be the team to beat right now in CONCACAF if they had the squad they do now and played in our region or atleast on even par with Mexico as atleast Ukraine had made it to the Round of 8 in a World Cup.(And yes I know you said we would only beat them 1 time but I think that’s a stretch when was the last time we beat Mexico it took us 34 years to beat the USA and Ukraine is way stronger than them).

We would have a better chance of beating Ukraine than Mexico, period.  I think that's all you need to know about this conversation.  Ukraine is good but not a team that is super scary.  Ukraine is not "way stronger" than the USA - they're both tier 2 teams. 

[apbsmith]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

There's been a June FIFA ranking published every year since 2010, so I don't know how much I believe this schedule. But, if Concacaf base the seeding on July rankings instead of June it makes this process even more complicated.

Crazy.

Honestly if I'm the CSA, I wait until the very last minute to officially announce our March friendlies.  That will put even extra pressure on ES,  especially if they don't know what we are going to do. Keep chipping away and really force them in June.

 

[dyslexic nam]

10 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Crazy.

Honestly if I'm the CSA, I wait until the very last minute to officially announce our March friendlies.  That will put even extra pressure on ES,  especially if they don't know what we are going to do. Keep chipping away and really force them in June.

 

Exactly. 

[baulderdash77]

I think the strategy has to be to play 2 friendlies in March against “good” beatable opponents to pick up 5 points.

Then it will all come down to the June window.  Honestly it would be great if CONCACAF could somehow persuade El Salvador to play is 2x in June.  Then it’s right out in the open.  I realize they won’t of course.  

It’s likely that El Salvador plays 2 winnable games in June to stay in front of us unfortunately.
 

[ted]

21 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Also something to consider but may not be feasible given the added costs of hosting a friendly, we would have a huge advantage playing in Toronto in March against warm weather nations. I would be super confident in us coming out with 7 points from a Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago doubleheader.

What kind of fantasy world are you living in?!?!

What "warm weather nations" would even consider playing us at home in March?!?!

Edited January 10, 2020 by ted

[Daryn27]

2 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

We would have a better chance of beating Ukraine than Mexico, period.  I think that's all you need to know about this conversation.  Ukraine is good but not a team that is super scary.  Ukraine is not "way stronger" than the USA - they're both tier 2 teams. 

Well Ukraine as of now is at the same level or above  Portugal and there is no disputing that 2 head to head matches, Ukraine had 1 Win and a Draw, also in Nations League A and was in the top pot with all of Europe’s best nations for the Draw  so unless you think the US is at the same level as Europe’s Elite nations then ya they are way stronger.

Since 2018 they are 12 wins 7 draws and a loss going up against countries like Italy, Portugal, Japan, Serbia, Turkey, and Nigeria which are all better as of now then the US. There only loss was to Slovakia in which they played a B squad against Slovakia’s top squad in Nations League since they were already guaranteed top spot and Slovakia needed the win to stop them from being relegated. 
 

I’m all for Canada to play stronger countries just after we find out if we will make the hex or not I’d say if we played them best 11 vs 11 we would be 0W-2D-8L for every 10 games. We are more the level of Scotland and the third Tier European countries where they are the bottom of the Tier 1 European Countries.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Daryn27

[archer21]

3 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

There's been a June FIFA ranking published every year since 2010, so I don't know how much I believe this schedule. But, if Concacaf base the seeding on July rankings instead of June it makes this process even more complicated.

If there are no June rankings and they go off of the most recent rankings in June (April) were totally screwed either way. Can’t imagine this would be the case though.

[MtlMario]

........ahh if only we win

 that %^&%$# Haiti game and even tied the US we wouldn't be using up all this energy.😠  .......   and of course if we would of played a few friendlies.........................................................

Edited January 10, 2020 by MtlMario

[Alex]

20 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

........ahh if only we win

 that %^&%$# Haiti game and even tied the US we wouldn't be using up all this energy.😠  .......   and of course if we would of played a few friendlies.........................................................

Those things happen in sport, plus we beat the USA which we hoped for but nobody honestly expected. That result made up for the bad Haiti game. 

What we should all be more pissed about is the fact that we soundly beat both French Guiana and Martinique (2 decent teams) in OFFICIAL competition and have nothing to show for it. It’s completely unfair having non fifa members mixed in to tournaments where you’re obligated to play them and in the end it’s a detriment to you.

[Yoginess]

On 1/8/2020 at 10:07 AM, dyslexic nam said:

A CPL-based team would likely be able to still get results against Caribbean minnows and they wouldn’t be in season. Plus it would be good pre-season for those selected and increase the exposure/profile (a bit) for those players. 

Kind of like the thought of our much broader player pool contributing to our WCQ too. Risky but feels like a really nation effort.

[Alex]

On 1/8/2020 at 11:34 AM, Kyle_The_Hill said:

You can only play 2 matches during official FIFA windows.

I think we should be looking at friendlies of nations around our ranking or slightly below.

 

I came across this the other day regarding the thought that we can only play 2 games per window.

Antigua and Barbuda played in the nations league on November 15 (lost to Jamaica), November 18 (beat Aruba) then they played a friendly vs Guatemala November 21st. It looks as though the Guatemala game was outside the window. So if we played 2 friendlies during the official window in March and/or June and then tried to play a game a few days later we would be screwed because everyone would have to go back to their clubs. 

[jtpc]

I like Antigua and Barbuda as a possible opponent for us if we were looking to set something up within CONCACAF. They're right underneath Trinidad and Tobago, in that next tier underneath Curacao, Panama, and Haiti. They lost 8-0 to Guatemala in November, but their ranking is still high enough that we would get 3 points from a win against them. Play them twice and you're looking at a great chance for 6 more points. 

[dyslexic nam]

39 minutes ago, jtpc said:

I like Antigua and Barbuda as a possible opponent for us if we were looking to set something up within CONCACAF. They're right underneath Trinidad and Tobago, in that next tier underneath Curacao, Panama, and Haiti. They lost 8-0 to Guatemala in November, but their ranking is still high enough that we would get 3 points from a win against them. Play them twice and you're looking at a great chance for 6 more points. 

Sounds like a team we could play a back to back against with a 1.5 type squad and still expect to win.  

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

16 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Sounds like a team we could play a back to back against with a 1.5 type squad and still expect to win.  

I think the current plan is to play two friendlies in March and then play in Europe in late May with some kind of "1.5 squad."

The play two more games during the window in June.

The game in late May might be against a weaker European side or perhaps India, http://www.hindustantimes.com/football/indian-football-in-2019-time-for-the-sleeping-giant-to-rebuild-once-again/story-3ZPNkTsKf84WBaOSfBulcI.html , who are looking to set up a training camp in Europe with plenty of friendlies.

 

El Salvador actually had to pay fines to the USA because they cancelled their friendly so late. http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/selecta-grecia-hungria-suiza-costa-rica-amistosos-ranking-fifa/676202/2020/

It seems like they have lost some money with their indecisive attitude.

[trc2014]

Which one of you beauties is the Wikipedia updater?  Bassong and Brym now have a nice little international section, which they didn’t have a week ago.

[saintjoes]

[Removed: Noticed someone already noted only 2 matches allowed per window unfortunately..]

Edited January 12, 2020 by saintjoes

[Kyle_The_Hill]

7 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I think the current plan is to play two friendlies in March and then play in Europe in late May with some kind of "1.5 squad."

The play two more games during the window in June.

The game in late May might be against a weaker European side or perhaps India, http://www.hindustantimes.com/football/indian-football-in-2019-time-for-the-sleeping-giant-to-rebuild-once-again/story-3ZPNkTsKf84WBaOSfBulcI.html , who are looking to set up a training camp in Europe with plenty of friendlies.

 

El Salvador actually had to pay fines to the USA because they cancelled their friendly so late. http://www.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/selecta-grecia-hungria-suiza-costa-rica-amistosos-ranking-fifa/676202/2020/

It seems like they have lost some money with their indecisive attitude.

"Now we are talking with the professor to define possible rivals for March, which would be Greece, Hungary, Switzerland and I spoke with another promoter to see options with Costa Rica"

Would love to see Hungary and Switzerland play them off the park in March