The Road to Qatar.

[CanadaFan123]

9 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

Yes we just beat the US, but I don’t know much about Austria and yes we have improved, but unless you think we are at the level of Portugal then yes play Ukraine, otherwise no because yes we had a draw against them years ago but in the Euro qualifiers Ukraine had a 0-0 draw against Portugal in Portugal then beat them 2-1 in Ukraine topping there Euro Qualifying Group in First place ahead of Portugal and Serbia and almost have there squad plays in the premier league, budensliga or is in the champions league.

 

As for your point to grow us yes I agree but we need points to get into the hex right now we don’t want to take for sure losses or atleast a high high percentage for a loss we need to play teams we know we can beat to get the points then after we make the hex or don’t play teams that can grow us.

You're heading down a confusing path if you want to do the 3rd party results comparison.. the USA also drew France in 2018.  

I followed Ukraine in qualifiers, they are very impressive but I still think we could take them.   We have some pretty impressive players too..  3 of the players on Ukraine are David's club mates at Gent, including one who scored against Portugal, but none are as valuable as him.  Then they have Zinchenko... we have Davies who is arguably better as well.  Still, I'd say they're a tier ahead of us but there's nothing overly intimidating about them where I would rule out a result.  In 10 matches they would probably win 6, draw 3 and lose 1 against us.    

Edited January 9, 2020 by CanadaFan123

[N1ckbr0wn]

16 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

You're heading down a confusing path if you want to do the 3rd party results comparison.. the USA also drew France in 2018.  

I followed Ukraine in qualifiers, they are very impressive but I still think we could take them.   We have some pretty impressive players too..  3 of the players on Ukraine are David's club mates at Gent, including one who scored against Portugal, but none are as valuable as him.  Then they have Zinchenko... we have Davies who is arguably better as well.  Still, I'd say they're a tier ahead of us but there's nothing overly intimidating about them where I would rule out a result.  In 10 matches they would probably win 6, draw 3 and lose 1 against us.    

This. I never insinuated that we are EQUAL with them, yet the gap between us and these teams is a lot smaller then it used to be and that gap is getting smaller by the year. None of those teams blow us out of the water 

[N1ckbr0wn]

And maybe Davies can do a little talking to Lewy about Poland taking it a little easy on us for buddies sake 😉

[apbsmith]

I was thinking more along the lines of these teams if going Euro based in March:

Scotland, Bulgaria, Albania, North Macedonia our all ahead of us & think we have a legit shot at a Win with Euro based A squad.

Belarus, Georgia, Cyprus, Estonia, Faroe Islands slightly below us and think we have a legit shot for a win with Euro based A squad.

@Kyle_The_Hill any chance we can get the points total for those Euro teams?

I'm sure the CSA is crunching the numbers like crazy, prolly hired an expert, but it's fun as supporters also doing this.

[archer21]

1 hour ago, CanadaFan123 said:

You're heading down a confusing path if you want to do the 3rd party results comparison.. the USA also drew France in 2018.  

I followed Ukraine in qualifiers, they are very impressive but I still think we could take them.   We have some pretty impressive players too..  3 of the players on Ukraine are David's club mates at Gent, including one who scored against Portugal, but none are as valuable as him.  Then they have Zinchenko... we have Davies who is arguably better as well.  Still, I'd say they're a tier ahead of us but there's nothing overly intimidating about them where I would rule out a result.  In 10 matches they would probably win 6, draw 3 and lose 1 against us.    

Sure we can beat Ukraine 1 out of 10 but why is that worth the risk? You’re saying there’s a 60% chance playing that game would eliminate us. And even a draw gets us 2 points which is less than we’d get for beating a minnow so what’s the point. I’d prefer to play a team around our ranking to get 5 points. It really all depends on what happens against Iceland though because we’ll only need 9 points with a win, 12 with a draw and 14 or 15 with a loss I believe (approximately, I’m too lazy to look back at the exact totals). 

[Kyle_The_Hill]

37 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

I was thinking more along the lines of these teams if going Euro based in March:

Scotland, Bulgaria, Albania, North Macedonia our all ahead of us & think we have a legit shot at a Win with Euro based A squad.

Belarus, Georgia, Cyprus, Estonia, Faroe Islands slightly below us and think we have a legit shot for a win with Euro based A squad.

@Kyle_The_Hill any chance we can get the points total for those Euro teams?

I'm sure the CSA is crunching the numbers like crazy, prolly hired an expert, but it's fun as supporters also doing this.

All these nations are unavailable due to UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying play-offs.

Here's the nations around them.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

Sure we can beat Ukraine 1 out of 10 but why is that worth the risk? You’re saying there’s a 60% chance playing that game would eliminate us. And even a draw gets us 2 points which is less than we’d get for beating a minnow so what’s the point. I’d prefer to play a team around our ranking to get 5 points. It really all depends on what happens against Iceland though because we’ll only need 9 points with a win, 12 with a draw and 14 or 15 with a loss I believe (approximately, I’m too lazy to look back at the exact totals). 

First of all our chances of beating Ukraine are much greater than 1 out of 10 times.

It's subjective, but I say 3 out of 10 times we win, 2 out of 10 we draw and 5 out of 10 we lose. 

I think we tied them last time we played (in Ukraine), although both squads were much different. Simeone Jackson was at Norwich City and Josh Simpson was tearing it up in Turkey. Those were our top attackers...

Secondly, we may grab 5 points with a win against someone of our calibre, but we lose 5 points if we lose, which is equally likely. That for me is the real gamble, isn't it?

The benefit of playing stronger teams is that we lose less if we lose, gain more if we win, and get a small increase if we draw. 

I do believe we are better than our ranking because a) for years we have done without official games, which dragged our ranking down and b) we have a young, talented generation coming up.

And since we are better than our ranking suggests I am comfortable with playing higher ranked teams. Not the super teams, but your mid tier uefa or south American teams.

We already played these teams in friendlies in the recent past and did decently well, and that was with a weaker squad. When we played Equador or Peru they never had to deal with Davies or David.

Like I said though, the real risk, if you ask me, is losing to a team around our ranking and lose as many fifa points as we could win. I think that proposition has the lowest value to us.

Unless we are playing such a team we are comfortable beating, like Curacao and to a lesser extent Panama, I would stay away from teams in the 60 to 80 neighborhood...

Edited January 9, 2020 by Obinna

[Obinna]

^ Case in point, I would rather try and beat Ukraine and pick up 7 points, because a draw also gets us 2 and a loss is only -3, then...

Play Albania, slip up and lose -5. A win against them gets us +5 and a draw gets us nothing. 

Playing a team around our ranking is not something I am overly comfortable with unless it's a team we know. I would rather play Nicaragua and pick up a cool 3 points, because I know them and I really do not think they would beat or draw us, though if they did we'd be cooked.

The benefit of playing a bigger team such as Ukraine is that if we do win we likely force El Salvador out of hiding, where they can possibly drop even more points. 

Or we can keep playing weaker teams and inch closer and hope a freak result doesn't destroy us.

Also, perhaps if we want to take the "gamble" of playing a big team it makes sense to do it in March and not in June? That way we have time to correct if we fail...

Edited January 9, 2020 by Obinna

[jtpc]

If we were looking at CONCACAF opposition, I still like Trinidad & Tobago as a potential matchup. They're right underneath similarly ranked teams to us (Curacao, Panama, Haiti) and they're high enough that we would still receive 4 points for a win. We defeated them 2-0 just last year, right before the Gold Cup. Just my own gut feeling, but I would rather take a little less risk and have an excellent chance to gain 4 points than try for a 5 or 6 point team and end up with a draw or a loss.

[Obinna]

5 minutes ago, jtpc said:

If we were looking at CONCACAF opposition, I still like Trinidad & Tobago as a potential matchup. They're right underneath similarly ranked teams to us (Curacao, Panama, Haiti) and they're high enough that we would still receive 4 points for a win. We defeated them 2-0 just last year, right before the Gold Cup. Just my own gut feeling, but I would rather take a little less risk and have an excellent chance to gain 4 points than try for a 5 or 6 point team and end up with a draw or a loss.

I kinda like the idea of T&T, but Ryan Telfer makes me nervous...

The soccer gods, y'know? 

[Obinna]

On second thought, T&T are kinda unpredictable. They can lose to us 2-0, but they can beat the States in WCQ?

Hmmm....

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Also something to consider but may not be feasible given the added costs of hosting a friendly, we would have a huge advantage playing in Toronto in March against warm weather nations. I would be super confident in us coming out with 7 points from a Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago doubleheader.

[Alex]

15 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Also something to consider but may not be feasible given the added costs of hosting a friendly, we would have a huge advantage playing in Toronto in March against warm weather nations. I would be super confident in us coming out with 7 points from a Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago doubleheader.

But that's against 4 teams!!!! ;)

[JuicyHam]

I would love a friendly against Jamaica in Toronto in March. Tougher but not unbeatable, people might show up, and it'll be chilly 

[Obinna]

45 minutes ago, JuicyHam said:

I would love a friendly against Jamaica in Toronto in March. Tougher but not unbeatable, people might show up, and it'll be chilly 

I actually like that idea. We get the home field advantage, home weather advantage and Jamaica get support at BMO. They might go for it.

What do we get from them? +6 for a win, +1 for a draw and -4 for a loss?

[SkuseisLoose]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Also something to consider but may not be feasible given the added costs of hosting a friendly, we would have a huge advantage playing in Toronto in March against warm weather nations. I would be super confident in us coming out with 7 points from a Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago doubleheader.

No more Toronto games please.

[apbsmith]

19 minutes ago, SkuseisLoose said:

No more Toronto games please.

When is the last time we took an L at Toronto?

Geo-politics aside, all I care about is a WIN! Pretty sure we have an awesome record and win rate at BMO.

Full Disclosure: I'm basically an 8 hour drive away now, so all I care about is the Win.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

20 minutes ago, SkuseisLoose said:

No more Toronto games please.

It can be in Saskatoon. I don't care as long as its cold and outdoors. In response to Juicy, if we draw or lose to Iceland, I agree we should get two of Jamaica, Curacao, Panama and Haiti to come.

[archer21]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

First of all our chances of beating Ukraine are much greater than 1 out of 10 times.

It's subjective, but I say 3 out of 10 times we win, 2 out of 10 we draw and 5 out of 10 we lose. 

I think we tied them last time we played (in Ukraine), although both squads were much different. Simeone Jackson was at Norwich City and Josh Simpson was tearing it up in Turkey. Those were our top attackers...

Secondly, we may grab 5 points with a win against someone of our calibre, but we lose 5 points if we lose, which is equally likely. That for me is the real gamble, isn't it?

The benefit of playing stronger teams is that we lose less if we lose, gain more if we win, and get a small increase if we draw. 

I do believe we are better than our ranking because a) for years we have done without official games, which dragged our ranking down and b) we have a young, talented generation coming up.

And since we are better than our ranking suggests I am comfortable with playing higher ranked teams. Not the super teams, but your mid tier uefa or south American teams.

We already played these teams in friendlies in the recent past and did decently well, and that was with a weaker squad. When we played Equador or Peru they never had to deal with Davies or David.

Like I said though, the real risk, if you ask me, is losing to a team around our ranking and lose as many fifa points as we could win. I think that proposition has the lowest value to us.

Unless we are playing such a team we are comfortable beating, like Curacao and to a lesser extent Panama, I would stay away from teams in the 60 to 80 neighborhood...

I really don’t think it matters that much that we’d lose more points against a team around our ranking than a team like Ukraine. Even if we lose only 3 points, we’re cooked either way. We can’t lose any games in March or it’s essentially game over. If the goal is to force ES to play competitive matches, we need to finish March within at least 5 points of them. That can’t really happen if we lose 3 points in 1 of the matches, unless you want to play 2 teams of that caliber, which would be suicide IMO.

[Alex]

49 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

When is the last time we took an L at Toronto?

Geo-politics aside, all I care about is a WIN! Pretty sure we have an awesome record and win rate at BMO.

Full Disclosure: I'm basically an 8 hour drive away now, so all I care about is the Win.

I believe we have only lost once at BMO. 2-0 versus Peru in 2010.

[Obinna]

59 minutes ago, archer21 said:

I really don’t think it matters that much that we’d lose more points against a team around our ranking than a team like Ukraine. Even if we lose only 3 points, we’re cooked either way. We can’t lose any games in March or it’s essentially game over. If the goal is to force ES to play competitive matches, we need to finish March within at least 5 points of them. That can’t really happen if we lose 3 points in 1 of the matches, unless you want to play 2 teams of that caliber, which would be suicide IMO.

Interesting perspective. I am not sure if I agree, but let me entertain both scenarios for a second...

Assuming we gain maximum points in this camp, we are 9 back of El Salvador,  right? Then if we lose 3 points against Ukraine in March, we are still only 12 back. Difficult but not imsurmountable.

We could pair a difficult Ukraine game with an easy one against a minnow (a "guaranteed" 2-3 points), so that way we could also make up the lost points against Ukraine and still be 9 back with 1 offical window remaining.

That's the loss against Ukraine win against minnow scenario.

Now, if we look at the "easier" path and opt to play 2 or even 3 games in March against minnows we can perhaps gain a maximum of 5 to 6 points. That would put us 3 to 4 points back of El Salvador before June, assuming they remain inactive, of course.

I guess that may be the safest play, but we'd have to be certain of victory. The minnows would have to be Barbados level and we'd probably need to play 3 matches. Just to be super duper safe.

That also makes me nervous though, because I kinda want to be ahead of El Salvador before June if possible, just to be on the safe side.

I would almost rather 2 march games, 1 being a guaranteed 2-3 points and the other a bit of a risk where we lose no more than 2-3 points (Ukraine, let's say). 

The guaranteed win would negate a "probable" Ukraine loss, while an "improbable" win against Ukraine would put is ahead of the Salvadorians going into June. 

Then we can safely ride out the June window with 2 or 3 more guaranteed wins against minnows, giving us a little bit of cushion.

Even if we only draw Ukraine, which I think is a realistic result, we end March with 5 points (draw + beating a minnow).

That basically puts us in the same situation as playing and beating 3 minnows in March, except we give ourselves a chance to overtake El Salvador before June, not to mention getting a quality game. We don't learn anything against these minnows anyway and furthermore, taking the easy road in March cannot put us level or ahead of El Salvador going into June, no matter what.

Thoughts?

 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Obinna

[archer21]

49 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Interesting perspective. I am not sure if I agree, but let me entertain both scenarios for a second...

Assuming we gain maximum points in this camp, we are 9 back of El Salvador,  right? Then if we lose 3 points against Ukraine in March, we are still only 12 back. Difficult but not imsurmountable.

We could pair a difficult Ukraine game with an easy one against a minnow (a "guaranteed" 2-3 points), so that way we could also make up the lost points against Ukraine and still be 9 back with 1 offical window remaining.

That's the loss against Ukraine win against minnow scenario.

Now, if we look at the "easier" path and opt to play 2 or even 3 games in March against minnows we can perhaps gain a maximum of 5 to 6 points. That would put us 3 to 4 points back of El Salvador before June, assuming they remain inactive, of course.

I guess that may be the safest play, but we'd have to be certain of victory. The minnows would have to be Barbados level and we'd probably need to play 3 matches. Just to be super duper safe.

That also makes me nervous though, because I kinda want to be ahead of El Salvador before June if possible, just to be on the safe side.

I would almost rather 2 march games, 1 being a guaranteed 2-3 points and the other a bit of a risk where we lose no more than 2-3 points (Ukraine, let's say). 

The guaranteed win would negate a "probable" Ukraine loss, while an "improbable" win against Ukraine would put is ahead of the Salvadorians going into June. 

Then we can safely ride out the June window with 2 or 3 more guaranteed wins against minnows, giving us a little bit of cushion.

Even if we only draw Ukraine, which I think is a realistic result, we end March with 5 points (draw + beating a minnow).

That basically puts us in the same situation as playing and beating 3 minnows in March, except we give ourselves a chance to overtake El Salvador before June, not to mention getting a quality game. We don't learn anything against these minnows anyway and furthermore, taking the easy road in March cannot put us level or ahead of El Salvador going into June, no matter what.

Thoughts?

 

The only way I’d be comfortable playing Ukraine is if we knew that Ukraine would be sending a B team. Against their A team, I think our chances would be too low to be worth it. To be fair to your argument, the fact that we’d be fighting for our lives while they don’t really care about the result could level the odds a bit. Hopefully if we do get risky, this will help us, but I still don’t think it’s necessary if we win these next 2 matches 
 

To my understanding, we can only play 2 matches in March, so we can’t just beat up on 3 minnows.

If we’re only down 9 points I wouldn’t mind playing 2 “minnows” depending on your classification of a minnow. For example, beating Suriname and Solomon Islands would get us about 6 points, putting us down by only 3 with 2 games to go. This would force ES to play 2 matches, where they’d likely trip up on at least 1. 
 

What I’d really like to do is play someone like Suriname and someone like Curaçao, both games that I like our chances in. That would put us 1 point back of ES and force them to play the same caliber of team that we do in the final window, where both teams would have to earn their way into the hex.

Edited January 9, 2020 by archer21

[SkuseisLoose]

2 hours ago, apbsmith said:

When is the last time we took an L at Toronto?

Geo-politics aside, all I care about is a WIN! Pretty sure we have an awesome record and win rate at BMO.

Full Disclosure: I'm basically an 8 hour drive away now, so all I care about is the Win.

I mean fair enough but most of our home games are minnows at this point. I know I’m biased but it would be nice for them to play around the country more often.

[Obinna]

44 minutes ago, archer21 said:

The only way I’d be comfortable playing Ukraine is if we knew that Ukraine would be sending a B team. Against their A team, I think our chances would be too low to be worth it. To be fair to your argument, the fact that we’d be fighting for our lives while they don’t really care about the result could level the odds a bit. Hopefully if we do get risky, this will help us, but I still don’t think it’s necessary if we win these next 2 matches 
 

To my understanding, we can only play 2 matches in March, so we can’t just beat up on 3 minnows.

If we’re only down 9 points I wouldn’t mind playing 2 “minnows” depending on your classification of a minnow. For example, beating Suriname and Solomon Islands would get us about 6 points, putting us down by only 3 with 2 games to go. This would force ES to play 2 matches, where they’d likely trip up on at least 1. 
 

What I’d really like to do is play someone like Suriname and someone like Curaçao, both games that I like our chances in. That would put us 1 point back of ES and force them to play the same caliber of team that we do in the final window, where both teams would have to earn their way into the hex.

I like your suggestion and I like our odds in those matches. Even if we play away games and fail and miss the Hex as a result, the silver lining would be that we gain experience in two new Caribbean environments none of our players have experience in. It wouldn't be happy experience, but it's experience nonetheless that could prove valuable if we face either team in the lower qualification phase.

[Scottie]

9 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

our last matches against Ukraine and Austria were a draw and a win respectively and we have improved significantly since then.

This is a total nitpick, but the long memory of voyageurs always amuses me. The Ukraine friendly was nearly 10 years ago in october 2010, while the Austria friendly was 14 years ago in february 2006!