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Binky

The Road to Qatar.

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Posted (edited)

I don't follow Fifa points system enough, but how many points would have the recent win in our "unofficial friendly vs T&T" given us if it was official?... Since it appears the CSA didn't want to pay the fee for making the friendly official.

Edited by apbsmith
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1 minute ago, apbsmith said:

I don't follow Fifa points system enough, but how much would have  our recent win in our "unofficial friendly vs T&T" given us.... Since it appears we didn't want to pay the fee for playing the friendly.

Zero.  Our win against Martinique? Also Zero. 

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Just now, BrennanFan said:

Zero.  Our win against Martinique? Also Zero. 

Sorry I was unclear.... If it was an official friendly, how many points.

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41 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Sorry I was unclear.... If it was an official friendly, how many points.

FIFA ranking points are tough to calculate.  We were ranked higher than TnT at the time so its not a big loss of points given it was only a friendly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings#Current_calculation_method

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Unless we get to the nations league final, I don't see us getting into the top 6.

Therefore (after the easy group stage with the minnows) we will be scrapping it out in home and away ties with the likes of:

 El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Trinidad, Cuba, Curacao, Bermuda, Nicaragua and Guyana.

Looks doable to me. 

A home and away playoff against Jamaica, Panama or Honduras also seems doable.   

Doable.

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So based on the rumor it is going to be 4  spots and not 3.5? Or would we go through all of that to secure the .5 spot? 

I do agree though, long journey but we can bang it out with all those teams, at least on paper.

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Posted (edited)

So the battle for the 6th hex spot will be between Panama & El Salvador. 

I wouldn't be 100% convinced that Costa Rica secures the #3 spot in that hex though, they could very well finish 4.

Definitely an interesting qualifying rumour, hopefully we will know the true qualifying format soon enough!

Edited by apbsmith

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@Edgar  has released a preview of the July ranking based on the Gold Cup results.  We lost 2 ranking points.  The B team against Mexico and the collapse to Haiti looking like massive missed opportunities.  

http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/07/fifa-ranking-july-2019-probable-ranking.html

image.png.64adfb438942ca42feb31edad91a151a.png

 

The most f###ed up part of this is Jamaica and El Salvador are in League B of the Nations League yet they're top 6 in the rankings.  Jamaica has 6 easy wins on tap.  El Salvador has Montserrat in their group who could potentially beat them but still....  

Honduras is in League A with Martinique and Trinidad.  No ranking points won or lost with Martinique but Trinidad stinks so I see them winning both of those games.

We basically have to do something nuts between now and March with Nations League and friendlies.

We need a 10 game Camp Poutine in January

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12 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

So based on the rumor it is going to be 4  spots and not 3.5? Or would we go through all of that to secure the .5 spot? 

I do agree though, long journey but we can bang it out with all those teams, at least on paper.

It's still 3.5 and there's a 33% chance the .5 spot goes through CONMEBOL.  

So, win a group of minnows and then win 4 consecutive knockout ties with the last possibly being against the 5th team from South America.  Insane!

I can see what Vic's doing here.  He's structured it so that he can hold another Nations League in the fall of 2021.  Nations League can go f### off!  Between now and November 2021 there were 26 dates available to have a fair and equitable qualifying competition and instead he's only using 10 to 12 of them.  WCQ should not be a f###ing knockout cup competition

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20 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

So the battle for the 6th hex spot will be between Panama & El Salvador. 

I wouldn't be 100% convinced that Costa Rica secures the #3 spot in that hex though, they could very well finish 4.

Definitely an interesting qualifying rumour, hopefully we will know the true qualifying format soon enough!

It's not being reported as a rumour.  ESPN Deportes is reporting it as a done deal based on Concacaf documents they have received. 

Other latin american media outlets also indicated today they have the new format but couldn't release it for 48 hours.  It seems ESPN just went ahead and leaked it. 

The winner of "the rest" mini tournament will be playing off against Hex 4th place for the .5 spot.  Very likely the winner will play the South American 5th place team.  Probably one of Peru, Chile, Paraguay, Ecuador.

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8 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I can see what Vic's doing here.  He's structured it so that he can hold another Nations League in the fall of 2021.  Nations League can go f### off!  Between now and November 2021 there were 26 dates available to have a fair and equitable qualifying competition and instead he's only using 10 to 12 of them.  WCQ should not be a f###ing knockout cup competition

Not sure how that will work because the last Concacaf home and away playoff is set to take place October 2021.

The Intercontinental playoffs are set for March 2022.

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3 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

Not sure how that will work because the last Concacaf home and away playoff is set to take place October 2021.

The Intercontinental playoffs are set for March 2022.

Nations League is groups of 3 so you only play 4 out of the 6 dates in fall of 2021 leaving 2 available for the WCQ playoff.  

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So if this is true it’s the biggest piece of concacaf ******** in the history of ******* concacaf. All but 6 teams ****** before it even starts. Concacaf just wants to guarantee all the teams they want are in the hex and no upset is possible, the pieces of ****. If this is the format I ******* hope there uproar from the other 29 associations and from the 6 who will make it. If this is true victor Mongalini should step down for being the biggest clown in the history of ******* Concacaf. ****.

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Posted (edited)

Should be a clause if you win your Nations League group and not in top 6 you make the hex, but there won't be.

Jamaica & El Salvador played tons of friendlies and now in B league of Nations League and now likely both will make hex.

Also, hope the media rips CSA a new one... 1 official friendly in what the last 18 months!? Jamaica has played  8 FRIENDLIES since March 2018. El Salvador 6, CSA ignorance really eating dirt on this one. 

Good thing they fired OZ who DEMANDED we play more friendlies. 

I'm so rattled right now, I don't know if I should punch a bag or just cry haha.

Edited by apbsmith

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4 minutes ago, Binky said:

Were Canada's chances of qualifying for Qatar under the old system better, worse, or the same?

I would say the new system makes it notably more difficult for us. Not like we had a great chance either way but now I’m pretty pessimistic 

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6 minutes ago, Binky said:

Were Canada's chances of qualifying for Qatar under the old system better, worse, or the same?

I'd give us an honest 40/60 chance in the hex.... to finish 3 or 4. I think we can bang it out with Jamaica, Honduras, El Salvador, and even Costa Rica provided we lineup right. 

This new one I dunno, maybe we win the mini tourney, just maybe, but it's so many games and I feel our weaknesses will get exposed when it matters over time.

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Time to organize some friendlies vs top 25 teams in the world, and hope they bring their b-c team? Maaaaannn this is pretty whacked in so many ways but CONCACAF will always be CONCACAF

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Time to organize some friendlies vs top 25 teams in the world, and hope they bring their b-c team? Maaaaannn this is pretty whacked in so many ways but CONCACAF will always be CONCACAF

I'd love to see the Netherlands play a friendly in Canada. That would be worth a point or two. That way if Canada loses we can sign Dwight Lodeweges right after the game.

Edited by Binky

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There was so much riding on this Gold Cup that we weren't even aware of!  Haiti picked up 69 ranking points at the Gold Cup.  If we had picked up a similar amount we'd be sitting 5th right now!!

http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/07/fifa-ranking-july-2019-probable-ranking.html

 

 

 

 

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Man I dont know whats worse. The fact the CSA cant get its **** together and take the mens national team serious, or the fact I'm a sucker for punishment and keep supporting this shitshow.

The little league mentality of the CSA is so frustrating. They keep trying to do all this experimental type **** in an effort to save money. First they hire womens coach, and give him impunity for the foreseeable future. Then they act like we have this big plan to revive soccer from the ground up in this country, meanwhile they refuse to schedule matches for the men. The entire focus of the CSA should be trying put every penny into the national team to reach a World Cup. Great way to fundraise is sell some ******* tickets!! Although I dont understand the claim it costs too much to arrange matches, soccer is the most played sport in the country. With this current team we should not be going through all this crap.

Sorry to rant, but man this gets old.

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