The Road to Qatar.

[SpursFlu]

52 minutes ago, Addona said:

If they really wanted out of the hex, wouldn’t they just schedule us and “not play their best” 

Because if your going out you go out in a blaze of dollar bills

[Red and White]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

Ps: why is Qatar playing qualifiers? Interesting 

Because AFC World Cup Qualifying doubles as qualifying for the Asian Cup. If Qatar qualify for the Asian Cup, they stop World Cup qualifying.

[CrimeanWish]

Well, I think that Canada still has many possibilities to classify to the hexagonal, obviously depending on the rivals that the federation chooses for the friendly matches of the month of March. Before I knew the next rivals of El Salvador I didn't have much hope, but knowing that they will play against the United States and Iceland, my perspective has changed. Against the United States El Salvador has a negative balance, in 23 games they have only been able to beat them on 1 occasion, 5 draws and 17 defeats. At the other hand, El Salvador have never played against Iceland, but the Icelanders are on a relatively good run, on the last FIFA dates of November they played as visitors against Turkey and Moldova, tied against the first and beat the second in the Eurocup qualifier. And with the showed current level of El Salvador (which has not been good in general against weaker rivals) I don't see them getting good results in either of these two games.

As I mentioned, I think that Canada has a great opportunity to sneak into the hexagonal yet, but it depends a lot on the smart ones that are in the Canadian federation when choosing rivals that are sufficiently accessible to beat and also that they score enough points to the FIFA ranking.

Edited November 23, 2019 by CrimeanWish

[Shortdutchcanuck]

1 hour ago, CrimeanWish said:

As I mentioned, I think that Canada has a great opportunity to sneak into the hexagonal yet, but it depends a lot on the smart ones that are in the Canadian federation when choosing rivals that are sufficiently accessible to beat and also that they score enough points to the FIFA ranking.

This is where you lost me 😉

[lamptern]

17 hours ago, Obinna said:

With 4 games remaining, China is second in their semi-final round group and I don't think they are catching Syria to advance to the final round. They have a game in hand, but they are 8 points back. That's one name from Asia we can scratch off the list.

Saudis are in a tight battle with Uzbekistan, so it remains to be seen how that plays out, but UAE are languishing second from the bottom in their group. I don't know what happened there, but they are cooked as well.

The likely teams to advance are:

Japan, Korea, Syria, Australia, Iraq, Vietnam, Uzbekistan/Saudi, and Oman/Qatar.

....I suppose this place is good as any to track other confederation WCQ, so long as it pertains to who Canada may play.

Ps: why is Qatar playing qualifiers? Interesting 

Asian just finished first half of it's 2nd round of WCQ which consisting 40 teams. All first place teams and 4 best 2nd teams from 8 groups would get into the 3rd round for the 12 team competition. If Qatar took the first or one of 4 best second place in their group, they are qualified for Asian Cup Finals directly. No matter what the result Qatar get in the group they won't compete in the next round of WCQ. If they took the first place of the group which is most likely so far,  then the fifth best 2nd place team of all 8 groups will advance to the 12 team round.

That being said, the potential 12 teams would be : Syria, China/Philippines, Australia, Kuwait/ Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain/ Iran, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Japan, Kyrgyzstan/ Tajikistan, Vietnam, Thailand/ Malaysia/ UAE, Turkmenistan, Korea/ Lebanon/ DPR Korea. Looks crazy, but just like CONCACAF, so many subpar countries on the rise and few traditional powerhouses on a free fall. It's definitely a wild guess who could emerge at this time.

Here's mine:

Guaranteed:  Syria, Australia, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Oman, Japan, Vietnam, Turkmenistan, Korea.

On the verge: China, Kuwait, Iran, UAE, Turkmenistan

The 3rd round will have two HEX groups. Top two countries in each group quality for WC. The two third place teams play a home and home series for the 0.5 spot.

It could as hard as in Concacaf  to pick who would be that 0.5, but I have a bold estimate again: 

Australia/Iraq/Uzbekistan/ Vietnam 

ps: It won't be a easy job for Canada if we didn't get our back line fixed by then.

Edited November 23, 2019 by lamptern

[archer21]

Assuming we were to schedule friendlies in the new year, when would that need to be done by? When would it likely be announced?

[TFC2017]

On 11/22/2019 at 7:14 PM, trc2014 said:

https://m.elsalvador.com/deportes/selecciones/fesfut-gestiona-nacionalizacion-de-bryan-gil/660004/2019/

Per this article El Salvador is playing the US on Feb. 1.  They want out of the Hex....

I don't really blame them though, they'd be the weakest team (on paper at least) in the hex with a 10game fixture list involving Mexico, Usa, Costa Rica, Honduras and Jamaica and coming 4th would take a decent sized miracle. In the other route they stand a better chance in knockout rounds with home and away legs. 

[dyslexic nam]

So, just so I understand the theory...

They wanted to win their CNL group to get promoted, but they will now proceed to throw away ranking points so that they drop out of the hex.

An alternative explanation for the friendlies is that they recognize they will need to challenge themselves and improve to be in any way competitive in the hex.

I sure hope it is the former since we would be direct beneficiaries, but it just seems unlikely.  A series of games against high profile opponents seems like it would be preferable insofar as they are unlikely to make the WC anyway.

[TFC2017]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

So, just so I understand the theory...

They wanted to win their CNL group to get promoted, but they will now proceed to throw away ranking points so that they drop out of the hex.

An alternative explanation for the friendlies is that they recognize they will need to challenge themselves and improve to be in any way competitive in the hex.

I sure hope it is the former since we would be direct beneficiaries, but it just seems unlikely.  A series of games against high profile opponents seems like it would be preferable insofar as they are unlikely to make the WC anyway.

That makes too much sense 

[SpursFlu]

1 hour ago, TFC2017 said:

That makes too much 

2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

So, just so I understand the theory...

They wanted to win their CNL group to get promoted, but they will now proceed to throw away ranking points so that they drop out of the hex.

An alternative explanation for the friendlies is that they recognize they will need to challenge themselves and improve to be in any way competitive in the hex.

I sure hope it is the former since we would be direct beneficiaries, but it just seems unlikely.  A series of games against high profile opponents seems like it would be preferable insofar as they are unlikely to make the WC anyway.

 

Winning their group qualified them for Gold Cup plus I'm sure loosing to those teams is not acceptable by ES supporters. Also their th spot is a huge asset. There is no way Canada has not at least called them a bout a friendly. I'm sure the response was.. how much? Also higher seeding will no doubt be a benefit in the qualifying group also. For a team like ES there are a few tough opponents even in the group stage.  I wouldn't call it a slam dunk theory but it makes some sense

 

You want to talk conspiracy theory.  Talk to me if the ES USA game ends in a draw

[Alex]

2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

Winning their group qualified them for Gold Cup plus I'm sure loosing to those teams is not acceptable by ES supporters. Also their th spot is a huge asset. There is no way Canada has not at least called them a bout a friendly. I'm sure the response was.. how much? Also higher seeding will no doubt be a benefit in the qualifying group also. For a team like ES there are a few tough opponents even in the group stage.  I wouldn't call it a slam dunk theory but it makes some sense

 

You want to talk conspiracy theory.  Talk to me if the ES USA game ends in a draw

If you’re the USA who would you rather have in the hex, El Salvador or Canada.... for sure not us.  

[aloyol]

2 minutes ago, Alex said:

If you’re the USA who would you rather have in the hex, El Salvador or Canada.... for sure not us.  

So the US want to lose that game because they want ES in the Hex but ES want to lose as well because they know they don't stand a chance in the Hex. When we have a scenario like that, we need to remember that "only in CONCACAF" 1994 Barbados-Grenada game:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados_4–2_Grenada_(1994_Caribbean_Cup_qualification)

[kacbru]

5 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

An alternative explanation for the friendlies is that they recognize they will need to challenge themselves and improve to be in any way competitive in the hex.

Someone should tell the CSA that this is one of the reasons to play friendlies...

[Kent]

1 hour ago, aloyol said:

So the US want to lose that game because they want ES in the Hex but ES want to lose as well because they know they don't stand a chance in the Hex. When we have a scenario like that, we need to remember that "only in CONCACAF" 1994 Barbados-Grenada game:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados_4–2_Grenada_(1994_Caribbean_Cup_qualification)

Holy crap. Thank you for this. I hadn't heard of this, and it's incredible.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

The US are trying to convince people their program is rebuilding.  That win against us is not going to mean much, if they start taking dives because they are scared of us being in the Hex.  

Stranger things have happened but I can't see it.  

Means we need to schedule some games and win them.

Edited November 26, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[SpursFlu]

11 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

The US are trying to convince people their program is not is rebuilding.  That win against us is not going to mean much, if they start taking dives because they are scared of us being in the Hex.  

Stranger things have happened but I can't see it.  

Means we need to schedule some games and win them.

But also remember it will only feature domestic players. Likely a u23 type team. It's not a dive but in a mean nothing game throwing out a group of domestic u23 players in a hostile environment could get interesting

Edited November 26, 2019 by SpursFlu

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

5 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

But also remember it will only feature domestic players. Likely a u23 type team

They still should and need to win it for optics.   

Edit:  The bad news is that El Salvador only loses between around 1.5 and 1.7 points if they lose. 

Edited November 26, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford

[SpursFlu]

26 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

They still should and need to win it for optics.   

Edit:  The bad news is that El Salvador only loses between around 1.5 and 1.7 points if they lose. 

Yah the 20 American fans in attendance will be sad. The keyboard warriors will be fired for 20 minutes and then on to next outrage. It really won't matter at all to the American public if a domestic u23 team ties ES 1-1

If a tree falls in the forest 

Edited November 26, 2019 by SpursFlu

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

14 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah the 20 American fans in attendance will be sad. The keyboard warriors will be fired for 20 minutes and then on to next outrage. It really won't matter at all to the American public if a domestic u23 team ties ES 1-1

If a tree falls in the forest 

(A draw gets El Salvador less than a point, it is a lot of scrutiny and possible trouble to arrange such a result for almost no gain)  The US need to appear they are making strides beyond CONCACAF, being CONCACAF-like even with a domestic team is not doing that. Just like the US being able to adapt for our last game, I guess I agree to disagree on this. 

[apbsmith]

9 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

Winning their group qualified them for Gold Cup plus I'm sure loosing to those teams is not acceptable by ES supporters. Also their th spot is a huge asset. There is no way Canada has not at least called them a bout a friendly. I'm sure the response was.. how much? Also higher seeding will no doubt be a benefit in the qualifying group also. For a team like ES there are a few tough opponents even in the group stage.  I wouldn't call it a slam dunk theory but it makes some sense

 

You want to talk conspiracy theory.  Talk to me if the ES USA game ends in a draw

Conspiracy theory, USA beat El Salvador by 5 goals...

The Americans would rather have revenge at BMO instead of bags of piss thrown at them El Salvador away in the hex.

Edited November 27, 2019 by apbsmith

[Yoginess]

Well if we have to go through the loser bracket at least we can see David break the goal scoring record soon.

 

seriously what other situation can you think of where we’ll have a long string of wildly important games against minnows.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Yoginess

[An Observer]

2 hours ago, Yoginess said:

Well if we have to go through the loser bracket at least we can see David break the goal scoring record soon.

 

seriously what other situation can you think of where we’ll have a long string of wildly important games against minnows.

The best thing is that we will likely still be in the thick of World Cup qualifying until middle to late 2021 at least.  Normally we are eliminated about 2 years out from the World Cup!

[TFC2017]

I'm still confident in winning the "loser tournament". It's time we show that we mean business. Our toughest competition is Curacao, Haiti, Panama and Trinidad. If the team would fail to win this tournament we don't deserve to be in the Hex. 

[TFC2017]

The more I think about it, doesn't it make more sense (in terms of our chances of qualification) if we go through the loser tournament? 

 

Assume we make the Hex: 

Mexico, USA, Honduras, Jamaica, and Costa Rica. 

We need to be ready to go and grab points in every game starting in September 2020. That's our best guys needing to be at 100%. 

I think realistically we'll grab around 12 points. I think we'd lose to Mexico at home but we'd beat Honduras and Jamaica, and likely at least 1 win between Costa Rica and USA at home. Then the away trips would all be dreadful. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica all likely losses. What are the odds we march into Honduras and Jamaica needing a result and actually pull it off? I can't see us winning down there even though we have a superior squad. Better teams have gone down there (Mexico) and lost. 

 

Overall I think we pull: 0 points from Mexico, 1 or 3 points from USA, 1 or 3 points from Costa Rica,  3 or 4 points from Honduras, and 3 or 4 points from Jamaica. Looking at it from a worst case scenario we would grab 8 points.. From a best case scenario we would grab 14 points. 

We'd likely come 4th or 5th place. 

 

Assume we go through "Loser tournament"

We'll draw 3 minnows first, beat up on them, gives us a chance to integrate some players if any are deserving of a spot (Canadian Premier League standouts or young players playing overseas) to give them a look to see if they could be useful later on. By the time we are in crunch matches our best players (Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David) will be even better than how they are now. They'll have had an extra year of development in Europe. Davies may have taken the starting spot at Bayern and David may have moved on to a bigger club in a bigger league. 

We can beat the minnows using younger players who need to be given opportunities. Such as: Kamal Miller, Liam Millar, Adonijah Reid, Jordan Perruzza, Mathieu Choiniere, Noah Verhoeven, Ballou Tabla, and Shamit Shome. 

[Obinna]

8 minutes ago, TFC2017 said:

The more I think about it, doesn't it make more sense (in terms of our chances of qualification) if we go through the loser tournament? 

 

Assume we make the Hex: 

Mexico, USA, Honduras, Jamaica, and Costa Rica. 

We need to be ready to go and grab points in every game starting in September 2020. That's our best guys needing to be at 100%. 

I think realistically we'll grab around 12 points. I think we'd lose to Mexico at home but we'd beat Honduras and Jamaica, and likely at least 1 win between Costa Rica and USA at home. Then the away trips would all be dreadful. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica all likely losses. What are the odds we march into Honduras and Jamaica needing a result and actually pull it off? I can't see us winning down there even though we have a superior squad. Better teams have gone down there (Mexico) and lost. 

 

Overall I think we pull: 0 points from Mexico, 1 or 3 points from USA, 1 or 3 points from Costa Rica,  3 or 4 points from Honduras, and 3 or 4 points from Jamaica. Looking at it from a worst case scenario we would grab 8 points.. From a best case scenario we would grab 14 points. 

We'd likely come 4th or 5th place. 

 

Assume we go through "Loser tournament"

We'll draw 3 minnows first, beat up on them, gives us a chance to integrate some players if any are deserving of a spot (Canadian Premier League standouts or young players playing overseas) to give them a look to see if they could be useful later on. By the time we are in crunch matches our best players (Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David) will be even better than how they are now. They'll have had an extra year of development in Europe. Davies may have taken the starting spot at Bayern and David may have moved on to a bigger club in a bigger league. 

We can beat the minnows using younger players who need to be given opportunities. Such as: Kamal Miller, Liam Millar, Adonijah Reid, Jordan Perruzza, Mathieu Choiniere, Noah Verhoeven, Ballou Tabla, and Shamit Shome. 

You're not alone in thinking this. I have kept saying the Hex is a potential trap for us, given where we are at.

I think our chances of qualifying are roughly the same, perhaps even better in the lower tournament. 

Con: we won't be playing the best teams.

Pro: we can grow our player pool.