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Binky

The Road to Qatar.

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If we’re only having 2 rounds before the semi final round it could go something like this. The 4 group winners automatically qualify for the semifinal round if Martinique wins their group the second place teams take their place. Next you have 31 fifa nations left because all the non fifa nations are removed. The top remaining nation gets a bye to the second round and the remaining 30 nations play a home and away round (1v 30,2 v 29...) leaving us with 15 nations. Next the top nation is put back in so we have 16 teams they play a home and away and the winners joins the semi final round.

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There is a FIFA "rule" stating that WCQ has to be seeded using FIFA rankings.  During the Blatter era, UEFA was forced to change from their previous policy of using their own UEFA National Team coefficient.  

However, since Infantino took over it seems everything that was once policy"is now very flexible.  Leaving the draws up to the confederations rather than holding a centralized draw is a hint.  Also, UEFA have indicated they will be giving 2 WCQ playoff places to Nations League teams. They will finalize their format in September

https://www.apnews.com/d30c09518ce940ac8e86a8f04c34dee3

In CONCACAF, Vic has repeatedly claimed that Nations League will be used to seed qualifying so UEFA's not alone in disregarding the "rule"

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4 hours ago, Kent said:

For anyone who is curious how this is similar/different from the 2018 qualifying process, this has 2 knockout rounds, whereas for 2018 there were 3. In 2018 it was 14 teams in the first round (7 move on). 13 teams join those 7 in the 2nd round (10 move on). 2 more teams join those 10 (6 move on).

For it to be 2 rounds, I'm not sure what other combinations could be done to make it work, but I think I came up with something that works math-wise. There are 35 total teams, trying to end up with 12 for the semi final round.

1st round: 9 teams have a bye, the remaining 26 teams play a home and away to eliminate 13 teams. Left with 22 teams total.

2nd round: 2 teams have a bye, the remaining 20 teams play a home and away to eliminate 10 teams. Left with 12 teams total.

It would be sensible to cutoff the teams at League B of the Nations League after this year's results. That gives every team a chance to either get promoted to League B or stay there so everyone has a chance. Also gives more meaning to leagues B and C.

That would cut the March 2020  starting field to 28 or less depending on the non-FIFA members.  Teams 5 to 28 could play a knockout round in March to cut the field to as little as 16. 

 

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19 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

However, since Infantino took over it seems everything that was once policy"is now very flexible.  Leaving the draws up to the confederations rather than holding a centralized draw is a hint.  Also, UEFA have indicated they will be giving 2 WCQ playoff places to Nations League teams. They will finalize their format in September.

I'm not sure that I'm understanding you correctly here. Are you saying that Portugal and Holland may have possibly qualified already for World Cup Final Qatar 2022?

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Binky said:

I'm not sure that I'm understanding you correctly here. Are you saying that Portugal and Holland may have possibly qualified already for World Cup Final Qatar 2022?

No, the next UEFA Nations League starts September of next year.  Teams from that Nations League will potentially get WCQ playoff places (those last chance 2 leg knockout rounds).  UEFA will sort it out in a few months when they decide how this is all going to work.

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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It appears that the Nation Leagues were established to segregate the good from the weak, so that countries like England, Germany, France, Spain and Italy don't have to waste time playing World Cup qualifiers against the likes of Luxembourg and San Marino. Very much like the Champions Leagues for clubs. In the long-term, such a system is not going to be benefit a lot of countries like Canada.

With the World Cup Finals soon expanding to 48 countries, Infantino might as well quit wasting time and go for the gusto by eliminating the qualifiers altogether and just invite all 211 member associations to the Final.

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1 minute ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

No, the next UEFA Nations League starts September of next year.  Teams from that Nations League will potentially get WCQ playoff places.  UEFA will sort it out in a few months when they decide how this is all going to work.

Are you kidding me!!! You mean a poor country like Germany, who were relegated in the recently completed Nations League competition, would not be eligible for these 2 spots. That's just so unfair. Oh, those dirty, rotten Dutch bastards!!! 😂😂😂😂🤣🤣

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7 hours ago, Binky said:

True enough, but the World Cup has always been staged during the summer and that's not happening this time around, and also the fact that the CONCACAF Nations League is a new tournament, which is going to have an impact on the seeding for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, I'd say that the circumstances are slightly different this time around, wouldn't you? Bearing this in mind, shouldn't CONCACAF fully disclose the details of the format it intends to use before the next ball is kicked in the CONCACAF Nations League, which in this case is September 5, 2019, so that everyone knows in advance what's up? And if Victor Montagliani happens to be dragging his heels in doing so, wouldn't it be Gianni Infantino's responsibility to point out to Victor Montagliani the urgency of doing so a.s.a.p.?

Oh I definitely agree with you that we should already know the qualifying format. I thought we should know before Nations League qualifying! It's quite annoying at the very least to not know already. And in the worst case scenario if they wait too long after results have rolled in it might feel like they are chosing the format based on the results. Ex: USA and Mexico finished top 2, let's give the top 2 a bye. Or USA finishes 7th, let's give byes to the top 8!

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

Oh I definitely agree with you that we should already know the qualifying format. I thought we should know before Nations League qualifying! It's quite annoying at the very least to not know already. And in the worst case scenario if they wait too long after results have rolled in it might feel like they are chosing the format based on the results. Ex: USA and Mexico finished top 2, let's give the top 2 a bye. Or USA finishes 7th, let's give byes to the top 8!

Back in May of 2016, when Victor Montagliani was elected president of CONCACAF for the first time, his vision for a united CONCACAF included the following:

https://www.canadasoccer.com/canada-soccer-president-victor-montagliani-elected-concacaf-president--p159508

Good Governance: A commitment to reforms and ensuring accountability and transparency within the organization through aligning governance best practices.

Strategic Planning (Competitions & Commercial Enterprise): Building a CONCACAF brand reflecting trust and integrity by reviewing all competitions and enhancing efficiencies, commercial enterprise, development and inclusiveness.

Invest in Football First (Development & Infrastructure): Strategic plan and vision to be implemented over two World Cup cycles with an infrastructure program focused on putting football first through leadership training, grassroots programming, and generating opportunities for league creation.

Strong Leadership: Based on the concept of leadership as service, the leadership must model the highest standards of ethical behaviour, acting honestly and in good faith, in the best interests of CONCACAF and its member associations at all times.

Now, more than three years later and into his second term as president of CONCACAF, we are still waiting for him to implement his vision and those values, with the start of the CONCACAF Nations League matches that will have a direct impact on 2022 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying matches only 65 days hence, when CONCACAF countries will start taking their first steps on the Road to Qatar. 

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The nagging question I have for Mr. Victor Montagliani is:

"Why weren't all of the details regarding the seeding for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, based on the results of the CONCACAF Nations League competition, ironed out in advance of launching the inaugural CONCACAF Nations League competition?

The absence of definitive clarity as to how CONCACAF intends to meld these two competitions leaves all theCONCACAF member associations and fans with plenty of uncertainty, and in no way reflects the values of transparency, trust and integrity that Victor Montagliani promised to deliver when he was elected president of CONCACAF in May of 2016. This uncompleted format also leaves the door open to possible manipulation of the seeding for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.

At the time of his election, Mr. Montagliani spoke of providing strong leadership: Based on the concept of leadership as service, the leadership must model the highest standards of ethical behaviour, acting honestly and in good faith, in the best interests of CONCACAF and its member associations at all times. Yet with all but 12 countries having been eliminated from the current CONCACAF Nations League competition, I have seen absolutely  no evidence of Mr. Montagliani practicing what he preached.

 

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22 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

I think I need to buy THE Voyageur tin foil hat.

I had one for sale on the site for more than a year and no one bought one.

I was very disappointed. 

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1 hour ago, Blackdude said:

I think I need to buy THE Voyageur tin foil hat.

I happen to have an extra one. I'll mail it to you. Is your address still the same?

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3 minutes ago, Binky said:

I happen to have an extra one. I'll mail it to you. Is your address still the same?

Hey now... we're gonna need those in the coming years.  Don't be so quick to give it away.

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2 minutes ago, admin said:

Hey now... we're gonna need those in the coming years.  Don't be so quick to give it away.

What's your hat size?

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25 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Binky = Robert?  

Oh wait, nothing on John van’t Schip yet.  Never mind.

I'd happily opt out of the witness-protect program, however, when I tried my name I was informed that it was already being used. Go figure?

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Just now, Binky said:

I'd happily opt out of the witness-protect program, however, when I tried my name I was informed that it was already being used. Go figure?

Your account should work. I can fix that now if you want. 

It should work. 

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2 minutes ago, admin said:

I had mine surgically implanted. 

It must be incredibly difficult the first time you tell your doctor that you would like to transition. Do you pass well?

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In that media scrum with Vic I posted in the Gold Cup thread he casually mentions "the next hex" when listing the upcoming events in CONCACAF.  No sarcasm in my translation this time ;)

I think it's safe to say the hex will happen.  Just remains to be seen if the preliminary rounds will differ from the past and if/how the Nations League will tie in.

 

 

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It is only a matter of time to know how the Concacaf format will be. AFC will make its draw on July 17 using the June 2019 FIFA ranking to make the 8 groups of 5 countries. They  even have the match  calendar of each pot

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_AFC_Second_Round

If we randomly select a country we can even check in what stadium the home matches will be played. 

Surely once the Gold Cup finishes, Concacaf will unveil the mystery ;)

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, gigi riva said:

with the emergence of Haiti , Curacao, Jamiaca The road to Qatar has become diffulcult

I agree. With 42 teams participating in CONCACAF qualifying for Qatar, I expect the competition for the 3 - 3.5 CONCACAF berths to be as fiercely as it has ever been. If the Hex, as CanadianSoccerFan points out above, is indeed to be employed again for this cycle, then whittling those 42 countries down to six means that 36 countries will need to be eliminated between now and the end of next year.

Theoretically, with these numbers, Montagliani could format 6 groups consisting of 6 countries each, with the group winners advancing to the Hex. In that case Canada's chances don't look that good right now. That way each country would be guaranteed 5 home and 5 away match.

Alternatively, Montagliani could also opt for a format of 6 groups consisting of 5 countries each, with the 6 group winners advancing to a semi-final round, in which they would be joined by 6 countries entering the qualifying at that stage, much the same as in the past.

If Montagliani uses the FIFA rankings to seed countries, in which Canada for the month of June sits 8th overall in CONCACAF and possibly lower after the Gold Cup matches are factored in, it is almost guaranteed that Canada will not receive a bye into a semi-final round if such a format is employed. Potentially a good thing because the CMNT would get to play more competitive matches, which it definitely needs, but also running the chance of getting eliminated by a country such as Haiti, Curacao, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama, and the likes.

If Montagliani opts to use the CONCACAF Nations League matches for seeding 6 countries directly into a semi-final qualifying round, in which Canada currently sits in 7th place, we would miss the bye into the semi-final round by one place. Therefore, if Montagliani chooses to wait with revealing his format until during or after the League A CONCACAF Nations League matches in September and October (to see if Canada can improve its Nations League ranking by one place), then Canada still has a shot at getting one of the six byes. However, this option would really cramp the schedule for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying schedule.

Edited by Binky

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2 hours ago, Binky said:

I agree. With 42 teams participating in CONCACAF qualifying for Qatar, I expect the competition for the 3 - 3.5 CONCACAF berths to be as fiercely as it has ever been. If the Hex, as CanadianSoccerFan points out above, is indeed to be employed again for this cycle, then whittling those 42 countries down to six means that 36 countries will need to be eliminated between now and the end of next year.

Theoretically, with these numbers, Montagliani could format 6 groups consisting of 6 countries each, with the group winners advancing to the Hex. In that case Canada's chances don't look that good right now. That way each country would be guaranteed 5 home and 5 away match.

Alternatively, Montagliani could also opt for a format of 6 groups consisting of 5 countries each, with the 6 group winners advancing to a semi-final round, in which they would be joined by 6 countries entering the qualifying at that stage, much the same as in the past.

If Montagliani uses the FIFA rankings to seed countries, in which Canada for the month of June sits 8th overall in CONCACAF and possibly lower after the Gold Cup matches are factored in, it is almost guaranteed that Canada will not receive a bye into a semi-final round if such a format is employed. Potentially a good thing because the CMNT would get to play more competitive matches, which it definitely needs, but also running the chance of getting eliminated by a country such as Haiti, Curacao, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama, and the likes.

If Montagliani opts to use the CONCACAF Nations League matches for seeding 6 countries directly into a semi-final qualifying round, in which Canada currently sits in 7th place, we would miss the bye into the semi-final round by one place. Therefore, if Montagliani chooses to wait with revealing his format until during or after the League A CONCACAF Nations League matches in September and October (to see if Canada can improve its Nations League ranking by one place), then Canada still has a shot at getting one of the six byes. However, this option would really cramp the schedule for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying schedule.

There are only 35 fifa nations and only 41 concacaf nations. And 1/2 of the teams are out before we’ll even get in so it’s hardly any different than any other WCQ cycle.

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