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5 hours ago, Kent said:

I just used the points simulator to see what would happen if the higher ranked team won every game, with the exception of Canada getting 4 points from USA. The end result was Canada being 2 points outside of the top 6 (behind El Salvador) and 33 points behind Honduras.

This is ok.  We'd just have to win our Nations League semifinal against Honduras or Costa Rica to get into the Hex.

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3 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

This is ok.  We'd just have to win our Nations League semifinal against Honduras or Costa Rica to get into the Hex.

Yeah, I meant to point out the simulator only goes through November. We would be positioned very well in the scenario I outlined.

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I doubt Trinidad can take points off Honduras.  They were rubbish in the Gold Cup and underwhelmed against Martinique. 

 

Might get a point in Trinidad, but on the road there's no chance.  

 

Not to mention Honduran fans are a b!tch.... literally

(finds excuse to post tweet)

 

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan
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On ‎9‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:29 PM, apbsmith said:

Yes, I do, Panama is a VERY VERY GOOD home team ( hence Auto-qualifying to the WC last year as top 3 in hex).

The 4 November friendlies are: Nicaragua, Bolivia, UAE, Suriname.  To be honest, I think they go 4-0-0, but I hope I am wrong. The games are all in Panama and much more important to Panama. I think Bolivia and/or UAE brings some of their B team, which only helps Panama get the result.  UAE's fifa ranking is currently inflated IMO, Panama is a much stronger team, especially at home.

I prefer using ELO to confirm fixtures https://www.eloratings.net/fixtures  (you can CTRL+F and search Panama)

According to ELO, Panama have 6 home friendlies to close out 2019 ( 1 september, 1 october, 4 in november). We really want Mexico to beat them in both Nation League games because there is a very good chance Panama goes 6-0-0 in their home friendlies. I think one of countless reasons Panama have scheduled so many friendlies is that they are anticipating to take the point hit vs Mexico.

Cheers.

 

It's interesting that of those 6 friendlies Panama scheduled to close out 2019, 3 of them no longer appear on ELO. It looks like their September 25th friendly against Saint Kitts and Nevis never happened as it's not listed under results, their October 10th friendly against Curacao has been deleted, and so has one of their November friendlies (November 19th against the UAE).

If ELO is accurate, Panama's only match now in the October window is Mexico away. El Salvador plays 2 away matches, one in Montserrat and the other in Saint Lucia. Hopefully Montserrat can give El Salvador a real run for their money again like they did in Nations League qualifying. Honduras plays twice, but can only earn ranking points from their match in Trinidad and Tobago. Curacao plays once, in Costa Rica. CanMNT and the US is getting closer as it's basically 2 weeks away now!

Edited by jtpc
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1 hour ago, Blackdude said:

Haiti's playing Bolivia on October 15th after their Costa Rica match. However, Haiti's probably the one team that needs a lot of help to get there, they are 50 points back of El Salvador and they actually need to get some upsets going ot have a shot at the Hex.

Point is they are trying to arrange their own fate. I think we will arrange a friendly in November only I we don't win next week. 

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24 minutes ago, Shway said:

Point is they are trying to arrange their own fate. I think we will arrange a friendly in November only I we don't win next week. 

We should arrange a friendly even if we win. People are missing that EL Salvador is still in the drivers seat even with a Canadian win next week. We need to figure out a way to grab some extra points. 

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5 minutes ago, Floortom said:

We should arrange a friendly even if we win. People are missing that EL Salvador is still in the drivers seat even with a Canadian win next week. We need to figure out a way to grab some extra points. 

Sh¡t, I thought we were good with a win!! 

I always think we should be scheduling friendlies whenever we can... I just know the "cash strapped association" has their own algorithm of when they decide what's "necessary" 

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6 hours ago, Floortom said:

We should arrange a friendly even if we win. People are missing that EL Salvador is still in the drivers seat even with a Canadian win next week. We need to figure out a way to grab some extra points. 

I'm not sure exactly how you define the drivers seat, but if Canada beats USA and El Salvador wins their games against Montserrat and St. Lucia, Canada will be about 3 points ahead of El Salvador, with more big point games on the horizon, USA of course, and also a good chance of advancing to the semi finals of the nations league.

Edit: I should add that if your comment was based on crunching numbers with the site below, they are still using the wrong importance coefficient for CONCACAF Nations League games, not taking into consideration that they are also Gold Cup qualifiers.

http://www.football-ranking.com/calculate

Edited by Kent
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39 minutes ago, Kent said:

I'm not sure exactly how you define the drivers seat, but if Canada beats USA and El Salvador wins their games against Montserrat and St. Lucia, Canada will be about 3 points ahead of El Salvador, with more big point games on the horizon, USA of course, and also a good chance of advancing to the semi finals of the nations league.

Edit: I should add that if your comment was based on crunching numbers with the site below, they are still using the wrong importance coefficient for CONCACAF Nations League games, not taking into consideration that they are also Gold Cup qualifiers.

http://www.football-ranking.com/calculate

https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html

Use this points simulator - it uses the correct coefficient. 

 

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On 10/2/2019 at 6:11 PM, Floortom said:

https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html

Use this points simulator - it uses the correct coefficient. 

 

Great example, it confirms my numbers. If Canada beats USA and El Salvador wins it’s two games, Canada is ahead by three points.

I didn’t go beyond that, but if you are saying if we both win all of our October and November games El Salvador will be ahead (I don’t know if that is the case) please note that it doesn’t factor in the semi finals and finals of the nations league, which we would qualify for in that scenario and El Salvador wouldn’t.

Edit: Just to double check, I went through that simulator to see what happens if we win both games against the USA and El Salvador wins all 4 of their games (note, I made all other games a draw, including El Salvador's and Canada's opponents, which would play some small part in the rankings I suppose). In that scenario we are 10 points ahead of El Salvador instead of only 3 points ahead. If we give El Salvador 4 wins and Canada a win and a draw against USA, that does put us 3 points behind, of course with us having another 25 importance factor game in the Nations League semi final coming up.

So yeah, I reiterate, I don't know what you mean by El Salvador being in the drivers seat, but if there is a way to make that true, it seems pretty subjective (ie: assuming El Salvador will always win and we will not).

Edited by Kent
note instead of not
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13 hours ago, Kent said:

Great example, it confirms my numbers. If Canada beats USA and El Salvador wins it’s two games, Canada is ahead by three points.

I didn’t go beyond that, but if you are saying if we both win all of our October and November games El Salvador will be ahead (I don’t know if that is the case) please not that it doesn’t factor in the semi finals and finals of the nations league, which we would qualify for in that scenario and El Salvador wouldn’t.

Edit: Just to double check, I went through that simulator to see what happens if we win both games against the USA and El Salvador wins all 4 of their games (note, I made all other games a draw, including El Salvador's and Canada's opponents, which would play some small part in the rankings I suppose). In that scenario we are 10 points ahead of El Salvador instead of only 3 points ahead. If we give El Salvador 4 wins and Canada a win and a draw against USA, that does put us 3 points behind, of course with us having another 25 importance factor game in the Nations League semi final coming up.

So yeah, I reiterate, I don't know what you mean by El Salvador being in the drivers seat, but if there is a way to make that true, it seems pretty subjective (ie: assuming El Salvador will always win and we will not).

Well El Salvador is in the drivers seat because all they need to do is win the games they’re supposed to win. We need generational results to pass them. They have already slipped up and could do so again but they are clearly in a much better position than we are.

Edited by Floortom
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2 hours ago, Floortom said:

Well El Salvador is in the drivers seat because all they need to do is win the games they’re supposed to win. We need generational results to pass them. They have already slipped up and could do so again but they are clearly in a much better position than we are.

+1. The last Canada win of any significance was 4 years ago against Honduras (and even that was at home). The game before that? 7 years ago we squeaked by Panama (also at home). Before that? 10 years ago we beat Jamaica at the Gold Cup. 3 wins of note in the last decade. 

So yeah, our record winning games that matter against opponents that are any better than us is pretty horrific. 

Edited by grigorio
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5 hours ago, grigorio said:

+1. The last Canada win of any significance was 4 years ago against Honduras (and even that was at home). The game before that? 7 years ago we squeaked by Panama (also at home). Before that? 10 years ago we beat Jamaica at the Gold Cup. 3 wins of note in the last decade. 

So yeah, our record winning games that matter against opponents that are any better than us is pretty horrific. 

Sure, but the whole conversation is predicated on the idea that we have  more talented squad and have a better chance of actually getting a result. 

If we go into the WCQ process assuming we will get the same result as previous cycles, WTF is the point. 

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9 hours ago, Floortom said:

Well El Salvador is in the drivers seat because all they need to do is win the games they’re supposed to win. We need generational results to pass them. They have already slipped up and could do so again but they are clearly in a much better position than we are.

Yes, this is true. The reason why I brought it up is because you were talking about a scenario where we beat the USA in the home game. "People are missing that EL Salvador is still in the drivers seat even with a Canadian win next week."

But of course, even if we had that win in our back pocket, getting some sort of a result in Orlando will be even more difficult.

Anyways, I'm interested in seeing how all these games shake down. I don't expect Canada to win both it's games against the USA, but to be honest I don't expect El Salvador to win all 4 of it's remaining games either.  12 more days till game day!

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  • 2 weeks later...

What an amazing night at BMO Field! Thrilled to have been there to see such a significant victory for CanMNT.

The next FIFA ranking update is October 24th. I think it will look something like this. (Thanks, Kent, for crunching all the numbers on the previous page for the countries that were close to us!)

5. Honduras 1368
6. Canada 1339
7. El Salvador 1336
8. Curacao 1323
9. Panama 1310

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17 minutes ago, Ruffian said:

How many games does El Salvador have left? How many points will they gain if they win each of those?

Two games in the November window of Nations league group B. Against Montserrat and Dominican Republic. It seems they're getting rewarded for being in Nations League B. After those games I believe they have some friendlies lined up in the new year. 

We need to take care of our own business against the states and the reassess where we sit in points relative to other teams. If we lose against the states we need to line up friendlies against beatable top 50 teams and pray for a small miracle :(. 

Don't sleep on Curacao either. 

Edited by king1010
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Games up until the end of the Nations League count for points in qualification for the hexagonal.
If Canada can manage to win their group in the Nations League, then they will have two more games in which to pick up extra FIFA ranking points.  El Salvador does not have that option, so in theory that may put Canada in charge of their own destiny in qualification for the hex.

Edited by spinrack
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