Jump to content
Binky

The Road to Qatar.

Recommended Posts

My understanding is that points are actually recalculated on a daily basis. Our second win against Cuba was worth less since the first win widened our point spread against them. If you want exact numbers you will have to recalculate the world on a daily basis. I hope the federation has a good spreadsheet or program for figuring out how to make the top six if they are doing future scenarios.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/5/2019 at 9:29 AM, Floortom said:

Again - I don’t see us having a chance in hell of getting a top 6 slot.

what I am hoping for is Panama passing El Salvador. That will give us a better chance at being the number 4 qualifier and getting that playoff spot. 

Well we definitely have a chance now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually trying to get an understanding of the ranking and on the subject of co-efficient

"05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
15 – Nations League matches (group stage)

..."

Friendlies inside the window seem high to me. The logic there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got this from someone else

10 September

League A
Cuba(945) vs. Canada(1317) 0-1
1 - (1/(10^(-372/600) + 1)) = 0.1935
25 * 0.1935 = 4.8375
CAN +5 CUB -5

Haiti(1276) vs. Curacao(1321) 1-1
0.5 - (1/(10^(45/600) + 1)) = 0.0431
25 * 0.0431 = 1.0775
HAI +1 CUW -1

League B
Dominican Republic(1028) vs. El Salvador(1347) 1-0
1 - (1/(10^(319/600) + 1)) = 0.7728
25 * 0.7728 = 19.32
DOM +19 SLV -19

Friendlies
USA(1544) vs. Uruguay(1640) 1-1
0.5 - (1/(10^(96/600) + 1)) = 0.0911
10 * 0.0911 = 0.911
USA +1 URU -1

Honduras(1352) vs. Chile(1583) 2-1
1 - (1/(10^(231/600) + 1)) = 0.7082
10 * 0.7082 = 7.082
HON +7 CHI -7

Argentina(1610) vs. Mexico(1608) 4-0
1 - (1/(10^(-2/600) + 1)) = 0.4981
10 * 0.4981 = 4.981
ARG +5 MEX -5

MEX 1603 (-1)
USA 1545 (-3)
CRC 1442 (-3)
JAM 1434 (+9)
HON 1359 (+9)
SLV 1328 (-14)
-----------------
CAN 1322 (+10) [+1]
CUW 1320 (+11) [+1]
PAN 1316 (-15) [-2]
HAI 1277 (-11)
TRI 1226
ATG 1137 (+1)
(point change since last official rankings)
[position change since last official rankings]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since it is clear that it is mathematically possible for us to make the hex without playing any friendlies, I'm now dreading the potential situation where we schedule a friendly or two and lose them, and have those lost points be the difference between making the hex and not. I can't imagine what the discussions on this board would be like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/4/2019 at 12:37 PM, ardsa said:

I know, but it is the semantics of it I am referring to. Rankings seem to come out 8 days after an international window closes, or a major tournament finishes. Points are calculated on a daily basis, but not published right away.

The June 2020 window is 1-9 June. This is when the Nations League semi-finals and finals will be. Canada will either compete in these matches or schedule friendlies ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Rankings should be published June 17th.

Is it too hard for Concacaf to be clear that it is the June 17th rankings that will determine the hex? Make it clear that it is not the rankings as of June 1 or 30th. What is stopping us from scheduling more friendlies outside of the June window to scrape a few points until the end of June?

 

The CONCACAF press release states:

Hexagonal format, will be contested between the top six ranked Concacaf Member Associations based on the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020.

Sounds pretty clear to me that this would be the June 17th rankings that you refer to. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

Edited by sstackho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Kent said:

Since it is clear that it is mathematically possible for us to make the hex without playing any friendlies, I'm now dreading the potential situation where we schedule a friendly or two and lose them, and have those lost points be the difference between making the hex and not. I can't imagine what the discussions on this board would be like.

the_darkest_timeline.gif.0a5fa649a06a888e6d67904a045e3aab.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sstackho said:

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

Gold Cup qualification would start in March for them if they finish second. And yes, it would give them more ooportunities, but PSO calculator would only happen if you have 2 draws with the same results since it's home and away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Actually trying to get an understanding of the ranking and on the subject of co-efficient

"05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
15 – Nations League matches (group stage)

..."

Friendlies inside the window seem high to me. The logic there?

Nations league matches have a coefficient of 25 as they are qualification matches for the Gold Cup.

https://www.concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup

Quote

For the FIFA Men’s World Ranking, all  2019-2020 Concacaf Nations League matches will be granted a coefficient score which corresponds to qualification matches to a Confederations final competition, rather than friendly international matches played during FIFA International Match Calendar window.

 

 

Edited by ghostknownunknown

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, sstackho said:

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

So let me get this straight - this effectively means that the more unsuccessful El Salvador is as top seed in a League B group (never mind League A), the better it is for their chances of making the Hex.

Nice job Concacaf in thinking through this qualification process. So glad that they are making this system foolproof to ensure that the best teams are guaranteed spots in the Hex.🙄

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

So let me get this straight - this effectively means that the more unsuccessful El Salvador is as top seed in a League B group (never mind League A), the better it is for their chances of making the Hex.

Nice job Concacaf in thinking through this qualification process. So glad that they are making this system foolproof to ensure that the best teams are guaranteed spots in the Hex.🙄

 

Well, no. They just gained a couple points for a win against St. Lucia and lost 18 or 19 points for losing to Dominican Republic. For them to finish 2nd in their group they will have to at a bare minimum lose another game in their last 4 games. They have already lost significant points over their first 2 games combined, and they will lose more points over their last 4 games if they have 3 wins and 1 loss.

Then their first round of playoffs would be against the Group C winners, which would get them very minimal points unless they beat Guatemala. Even the following round against the relegated League A teams, you are likely looking at teams like Cuba, Bermuda, T&T or Martinique (Martinique would give 0 points), and Haiti. Cuba and Bermuda wouldn't give them many points, and Martinique would give them 0 points.

El Salvador would have been better off to win all 6 of their games and not have these playoffs. But it is a bit weird to have an extra chance at points that could potentially make the difference for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

Things not looking as gloomy now. GO CANADA GO

Still gotta get through the US though.  And while it seems like things are lining up for our best chance to do that, it still will be a huge test for us.

Fingers crossed...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Canada plays US home and away

Panama plays Mexico home and away

Curacao plays Costa Rica home away

El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Alex said:

We should line up a friendly vs El Salvador in March for all the marbles.

They're not dumb. I think ESalvadore only hope is to duck for cover and hope everything plays out in their favour. Not a good team

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, to70 said:

Canada plays US home and away

Panama plays Mexico home and away

Curacao plays Costa Rica home away

El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia.

Curacao seems to have the best seat, they're only 2 points behind us and Costa Rica is no where near as good as they were the past 2-4 years. 

For the pure thrill of it, i'd rather be in our shoes, but the mountain is way higher to climb for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We started the month 30 points behind El Salvador and 19 points behind Panama.

Now we're only 5 points behind El Salvador and Panama trails us by 6 points.

I'm getting really excited about next month. What a chance to gain points, a 25 multiplier against the US at home, while El Salvador plays 2 away matches. Curacao is in a very good position as well, so hopefully Costa Rica can take care of business and prevent Curacao from advancing past the group stage.

Let's get that November friendly finalized. It would be great if there was a country with a super-inflated ranking and the logistics worked out perfectly, but if not and we're looking within our region, I think the mid-tier underneath Haiti would be ideal. Perhaps an Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago. High enough that we would feel good about our ability to get a result (we've defeated Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 and Saint Kitts and Nevis 1-0 recently) but not low enough that the points would be almost meaningless. Even if the friendly only gave us another 3 points, I would rather play it safe and take that, than shoot for the moon by playing a very high ranked team and lose.

Edited by jtpc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, to70 said:

Canada plays US home and away

Panama plays Mexico home and away

Curacao plays Costa Rica home away

El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia.

What an exciting fall this is shaping up to be!

3 of the 4 teams in the mix play 3 of the biggest teams in Concacaf, plus there is a twist with El Salvador, the 4th team in contention, playing in league B.

Big matches coming up!

Normally everyone would just be playing friendlies and waiting for the WCQ semi-final round to start. You can't say this is not more exciting!

Edited by Obinna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...