king1010 Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Alex said: We should line up a friendly vs El Salvador in March for all the marbles. If they're ahead of us, there is little chance they'd be open to that. All to lose, nothing to gain for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkuseisLoose Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 The cooks island have had a schocking window Bdog, JuicyHam, CanadianSoccerFan and 9 others 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpursFlu Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Alex said: We should line up a friendly vs El Salvador in March for all the marbles. They're not dumb. I think ESalvadore only hope is to duck for cover and hope everything plays out in their favour. Not a good team king1010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
costarg Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, to70 said: Canada plays US home and away Panama plays Mexico home and away Curacao plays Costa Rica home away El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia. Curacao seems to have the best seat, they're only 2 points behind us and Costa Rica is no where near as good as they were the past 2-4 years. For the pure thrill of it, i'd rather be in our shoes, but the mountain is way higher to climb for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtpc Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 (edited) We started the month 30 points behind El Salvador and 19 points behind Panama. Now we're only 5 points behind El Salvador and Panama trails us by 6 points. I'm getting really excited about next month. What a chance to gain points, a 25 multiplier against the US at home, while El Salvador plays 2 away matches. Curacao is in a very good position as well, so hopefully Costa Rica can take care of business and prevent Curacao from advancing past the group stage. Let's get that November friendly finalized. It would be great if there was a country with a super-inflated ranking and the logistics worked out perfectly, but if not and we're looking within our region, I think the mid-tier underneath Haiti would be ideal. Perhaps an Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago. High enough that we would feel good about our ability to get a result (we've defeated Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 and Saint Kitts and Nevis 1-0 recently) but not low enough that the points would be almost meaningless. Even if the friendly only gave us another 3 points, I would rather play it safe and take that, than shoot for the moon by playing a very high ranked team and lose. Edited September 19, 2019 by jtpc ted, lamptern and ESG Shawn 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obinna Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, to70 said: Canada plays US home and away Panama plays Mexico home and away Curacao plays Costa Rica home away El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia. What an exciting fall this is shaping up to be! 3 of the 4 teams in the mix play 3 of the biggest teams in Concacaf, plus there is a twist with El Salvador, the 4th team in contention, playing in league B. Big matches coming up! Normally everyone would just be playing friendlies and waiting for the WCQ semi-final round to start. You can't say this is not more exciting! Edited September 19, 2019 by Obinna MtlMario and johnyb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestHamCanadianinOxford Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 (edited) Does Martinique not being in FIFA completely take Honduras out of the equation for a big enough drop or would 2 bad results against T&T make it interesting? Edit - Or I guess first question, does Martinique not being in FIFA make a difference? Edited September 19, 2019 by WestHamCanadianinOxford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Club Linesman Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 hour ago, king1010 said: If they're ahead of us, there is little chance they'd be open to that. All to lose, nothing to gain for them. The only reason they would play us is if we passed them at which point it would make no sense for us to play them. Of course these games would need to be lined up in advance so who knows what would happen after the next set of games. Alex’s idea about the all the marbles game right before June 2020 would make for great spectacle and probably add hundreds of subscriptions to One Soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
to70 Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 37 minutes ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said: Does Martinique not being in FIFA completely take Honduras out of the equation for a big enough drop or would 2 bad results against T&T make it interesting? Edit - Or I guess first question, does Martinique not being in FIFA make a difference? Those games don't count towards FIFA rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grigorio Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 What was that Duane Rollins said about it being completely impossible for Canada to crack the top 6 in CONCACAF again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestHamCanadianinOxford Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 minute ago, to70 said: Those games don't count towards FIFA rankings That is what I thought logically makes sense because you need the difference in ranking for the formula. I just could not see it explicitly stated anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
to70 Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Honduras does play T&T in a home and away series as well as Martinique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestHamCanadianinOxford Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Just now, to70 said: Honduras does play T&T in a home and away series as well as Martinique. Yeah that was part of my initial thought (see above). I would guess two losses would be pretty devastating but wonder if draws or one draw and one loss might drag them into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kadenge Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 hour ago, to70 said: Honduras does play T&T in a home and away series as well as Martinique. Let's hope Ryan Telfer has 2 big games against them! johnyb, dyslexic nam and ghostknownunknown 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 20 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said: Yeah that was part of my initial thought (see above). I would guess two losses would be pretty devastating but wonder if draws or one draw and one loss might drag them into the mix. In the next window, if Canada beats the USA (+17.5 points) and Honduras loses to T&T (-15.6 points), Canada will be only 5 points behind them. Here is a table of all the possible results for the next window for Canada and Honduras. We Win Draw Loss Canada v USA 0.2982188216 17.54452946 5.044529461 -7.455470539 Honduras vs T&T 0.6249017304 9.377456739 -3.122543261 -15.62254326 Ignore the "We" column (unless you are rankings calculator nerd) and the bottom empty row. I can't seem to get rid of them. lamptern, SpecialK and WestHamCanadianinOxford 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 OK, I'm a bit more organized now, so I can do these calculations faster. Here are the possible points for the most relevant games to us in the October window. Again, sorry about the We column. The Win/Draw/Loss columns are for the first listed team (so Canada, Honduras, El Salvador, Curacao, or Panama). We Win Draw Loss Canada v USA 0.2982188216 17.54452946 5.044529461 -7.455470539 Honduras vs T&T 0.6249017304 9.377456739 -3.122543261 -15.62254326 El Salvador vs Montserrat 0.8309845899 4.225385252 -8.274614748 -20.77461475 El Salvador vs St. Lucia 0.7980056212 5.04985947 -7.45014053 -19.95014053 Curacao vs Costa Rica 0.3850441906 15.37389524 2.873895236 -9.626104764 Panama vs Mexico 0.2494770688 18.76307328 6.26307328 -6.23692672 apbsmith, johnyb, Ansem and 6 others 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ansem Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 So GO!!! Costa Rica, Mexico, Trinidad and Montserrat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floortom Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 (edited) https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html Points simulator Will still be very tough to get into the top 6. A win AND a draw versus US would probably be enough but that will be tough. If we win once (or draw twice) vs US we would then need need EL Salvador to lose once (or draw twice) against Montserat & St. Lucia. A draw and a loss or two losses vs US would end our hopes for all intents and purposes. If Panama and Curacao can upset Mexico / Costa Rica respectively than that makes things even tougher for us. Edited September 20, 2019 by Floortom Lofty and Kent 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InBorjanWeTrust Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 We need to also remember that we still have 9 months to go until the teams are confirmed for the Hex. If we manage to keep it close in the November break, we will still have a shot at making it into the hex in March. Either through the semis of the nations league or carefully selected friendlies. I know none of us has any faith in the CSA, and for good reason. But I have a real sense that Herdman and the crew are going all out for the hex. I'm cautiously optimistic about this. Not gonna lie though, Curacao are scaring the sh*t outta me though. Kadenge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
costarg Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Floortom said: https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html Points simulator Will still be very tough to get into the top 6. A win AND a draw versus US would probably be enough but that will be tough. If we win once (or draw twice) vs US we would then need need EL Salvador to lose once (or draw twice) against Montserat & St. Lucia. A draw and a loss or two losses vs US would end our hopes for all intents and purposes. If Panama and Curacao can upset Mexico / Costa Rica respectively than that makes things even tougher for us. At this point and the way both teams are playing, I don't think Curacao beating Costa Rica is an upset. I'm pretty sure they're the better team at the moment. CanadianSoccerFan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestHamCanadianinOxford Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 23 minutes ago, costarg said: At this point and the way both teams are playing, I don't think Curacao beating Costa Rica is an upset. I'm pretty sure they're the better team at the moment. Curacao I would think are favourite to get in the 6 because they have a better chance to get better results that we do, as you say on form. We match them we do better of course, so that part at least is in our hands. But overall that is why I was wondering how easy it would be to catch Honduras and we both go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kadenge Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 (edited) We just have to focus on our games vs the US. The rest is not in our control. I was at the game we last played the US at BMO. Think it was just before the 2014 WCQ pre Hex round. We should have won it on a Simeon Jackson goal but he shanked a tap in just 2 feet from goal. The US iirc had a full squad. I don't know for sure if we are stronger now but the US is probably weaker than back in 2013. We just have to go for it at BMO and hope our key players have strong performances. This is going to be a massive game for the players, JH, CSA, fans, media you name it. We need to sell out BMO field. Edited September 20, 2019 by Kadenge apbsmith and Kent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Floortom said: https://natfan9.github.io/Making-the-Hex/index.html Points simulator That's awesome. Did you make it? xabuep2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floortom Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Kent said: That's awesome. Did you make it? Nope! it was posted over on the /CanadianPL sub-Reddit Kent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 I just used the points simulator to see what would happen if the higher ranked team won every game, with the exception of Canada getting 4 points from USA. The end result was Canada being 2 points outside of the top 6 (behind El Salvador) and 33 points behind Honduras. Addona 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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