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The Road to Qatar.

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Again...so frustrating.  He has had plenty of time to get games against other tougher teams.  First he says these CNL games are great we love the competetive nature, blah blah, no more meaningless friendlies.  Then its a 180 flip.....now he doesnt want the CNL games he wants the friendlies He avoided like the plague for the almost 2 years.  If we lose to the USA he'll have another story about how he had another team in mind for that window but was forced to play USA.  Quit trying to spin things all the time it just mkaes you sound more like a snake oil salesman...the tune up friendlies against decent opponents are a good idea and always were.  The CNL isnt all bad either, but with the CNL you take your lumps, sometimes you'll play Costa rica or USA, sometimes u have to play Cuba or ST kitts.  Its not all geared to help you game the system.  

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Finally got to see the Canada vs Cuba game, so I lifted my blackout. Panama lost to Bermuda! That's actually huge. If my calculations are correct, we are just ahead of Panama in the rankings right now (but it's not updated of course) and another win against Cuba on Tuesday will maintain that position and show in the next rankings.

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One game at a time and all that but really has to be results against the States doesn't it?   

(Apologise; still getting a handle on the minutiae of math on this - how many points is actually too many to make up, for instance )

One problem with this format is that the teams around us are:

1) playing in a easier group A and should pick up results (Honduras) 

2) playing in group B and should pick up results  (El Salvador) 

3) Playing in a group A where the "big team" (Costa Rica) is beatable but really would have to work hard to lose the cushion they have for staying in the Hex (103 points last rankings)  - (Curacao)

Panama looks catchable by schedule and recent results (19 points difference) but we have to catch 2 (El Salvador difference is at 30) and hold off 1 realistically. 

I guess one thing going for us is the US is probably over-ranked at this point. 

Please feel free to pick that apart and correct me.   

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3 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

One game at a time and all that but really has to be results against the States doesn't it?   

(Apologise; still getting a handle on the minutiae of math on this - how many points is actually too many to make up, for instance )

One problem with this format is that the teams around us are:

1) playing in a easier group A and should pick up results (Honduras) 

2) playing in group B and should pick up results  (El Salvador) 

3) Playing in a group A where the "big team" (Costa Rica) is beatable but really would have to work hard to lose the cushion they have for staying in the Hex (103 points last rankings)  - (Curacao)

Panama looks catchable by schedule and recent results (19 points difference) but we have to catch 2 (El Salvador difference is at 30) and hold off 1 realistically. 

I guess one thing going for us is the US is probably over-ranked at this point. 

Please feel free to pick that apart and correct me.   

The thing about El Salvador, is that yes they will be expected to win each individual game, but each game is worth a small number of points if they win. However, if they are upset, they lose a lot of points. As my chart in the previous page of this thread shows for example, a win against Dominican Republic is worth 5 or 6 points, but a tie loses them 6 or 7, and a loss means they lose about 19 points. With them playing 6 games you have to think there is a decent chance of them slipping up once or twice. Let's say they get a loss and a tie and 4 wins at about 5 points per win and 15 points for a loss, and 5 points lost for a draw (rough numbers for easy math). Their 4 wins would give them 20 points, and their loss and draw would cost them 20 points, so they sit still. If they lose 2 and win 4, they fall back 10 points.

So yes it is an easier schedule for them, but they don't have a ton to gain but have a lot to lose. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes down.

Edited by Kent
"easy math" not "each math"

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I actually believe that Monserrat can take points from ES. They were seconds away from doing so in the CNL qualifying and barely missed qualifying for the Gold Cup.  Go for 2 wins against the US because that’s what we need to do on a regular basis if we have ambitions of inhabiting a higher level, but I suspect from a points perspective a pair of draws might even be enough now to get us in the hex thanks to Bermuda. Go Monserrat!!!

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Based on historical let downs and soul crushing collapses, I refuse to get optimistic about these scenarios.  I maintains a high level of expectation for our team, but am highly skeptical that the starts will align for us.  History just doesn’t support that kind of mindset. 

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Don’t count on El Salvador running the table at 6-0. They only beat st Lucia (the weakest team of the 4) 3-0 at home and it was 1-0 into the 70th minute. I expect Montserrat and Dominican Republic to be tougher tests. 

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29 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Does anyone know if margin of victory factors into these equations? 

For Fifa points? Nope. No home advantage weighting. Its all based on the difference in the ranking points between the two teams, times the importance of the match.

For our CNL group games? Yep, its a tiebreaker for the group.

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9 hours ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

For Fifa points? Nope. No home advantage weighting. Its all based on the difference in the ranking points between the two teams, times the importance of the match.

For our CNL group games? Yep, its a tiebreaker for the group.

I assume Group A matches don't have more importance than Group B ones? If so, seems wrong.  You should be rewarded for qualifying to that level 

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20 minutes ago, An Observer said:

I assume Group A matches don't have more importance than Group B ones? If so, seems wrong.  You should be rewarded for qualifying to that level 

They don’t as it’s all based on what the tournament purpose is. As it’s serving as qualifying for the 2021 gold cup they’re all considered continental qualifiers by fifa and are given an importance of 25.

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I'm really not sure, but I think if we beat USA on October 15th, we will be ahead of El Salvador even if they win both of their October Nations League games. I really need to wait for the next rankings and start fresh before I can say for sure, but I think we will be a couple points ahead of them in that scenario.

Of course if Panama beats Mexico or Curacao beats Costa Rica, we would likely be behind them, but I haven't actually run the numbers on all that.

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16 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Aside from Curaçao equalizing, this round of matches basically went as well as they could for us. That is encouraging.  

A week or so ago, definitely before the announcement of the Gold Cup qualifying details it looked like even if we ran the table in Nations League, including the semi and final, we would need a lot of help to have a chance at the hex. Now it looks like we already have that help. I'm sure if we were to run the table (incredibly unlikely) we would easily be in the hex. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. I'm ready for the October games to start now please.

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3 minutes ago, Kent said:

A week or so ago, definitely before the announcement of the Gold Cup qualifying details it looked like even if we ran the table in Nations League, including the semi and final, we would need a lot of help to have a chance at the hex. Now it looks like we already have that help. I'm sure if we were to run the table (incredibly unlikely) we would easily be in the hex. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. I'm ready for the October games to start now please.

And with this round done, we can all start voodoo hexing the other teams and hoping for an encore of stumbles by our competition.  

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If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation Previous Game 1     Game 2      New 
El Salvador 1342 5.4 -18.7 1328.7
Canada 1314 5.6 5.6 1325.2

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52 minutes ago, LACanadian said:

If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation Previous Game 1     Game 2      New 
El Salvador 1342 5.4 -18.7 1328.7
Canada 1314 5.6 5.6 1325.2

This is wise and just.

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1 hour ago, LACanadian said:

If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation Previous Game 1     Game 2      New 
El Salvador 1342 5.4 -18.7 1328.7
Canada 1314 5.6 5.6 1325.2

Is it Canada PTS 1312 on FIFA ranking now?

 

Screenshot (15).png

Edited by lamptern

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34 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

So a win against USA gets us est 16-17pts, tie gets 5-6 pts, what does a loss cost us??  Another minus 5-6??  

Under current points and coefficient of 25 I have the following vs the US;

W 17.8

L -7.2

Tie  5.3

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