The Road to Qatar.

[Redpunkfiddle]

Just now, Redpunkfiddle said:

This is wise and just. It was always unlikely, but still possible mathematically to qualify for the hex.

 

[lamptern]

1 hour ago, LACanadian said:

If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation	Previous	Game 1	Game 2	New
El Salvador	1342	5.4	-18.7	1328.7
Canada	1314	5.6	5.6	1325.2

Is it Canada PTS 1312 on FIFA ranking now?

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by lamptern

[LACanadian]

My bad looks like I grabbed the 1314 from previous points, probably wishful thinking 

[baulderdash77]

Crazy that both Panama and El Salvador lost and we could make the Hex with a good result against the US.

The big question is can our very best get a home win against the US.  That’s a big task.  

[Bison44]

So a win against USA gets us est 16-17pts, tie gets 5-6 pts, what does a loss cost us??  Another minus 5-6??  

[LACanadian]

Updated: Looks like I was also using the wrong exponent... Is it confirmed that these games have a coefficient of 25?

Nation	Previous	Game 1	Game 2	New
El Salvador	1342	4.9	-19.2	1327.7
Canada	1312	5.2	5.2	1322.4
	-30	0.3	24.4	-5.3

[LACanadian]

34 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

So a win against USA gets us est 16-17pts, tie gets 5-6 pts, what does a loss cost us??  Another minus 5-6??  

Under current points and coefficient of 25 I have the following vs the US;

W 17.8

L -7.2

Tie  5.3

[ardsa]

My understanding is that points are actually recalculated on a daily basis. Our second win against Cuba was worth less since the first win widened our point spread against them. If you want exact numbers you will have to recalculate the world on a daily basis. I hope the federation has a good spreadsheet or program for figuring out how to make the top six if they are doing future scenarios.

[BuzzAndSting]

On 9/5/2019 at 9:29 AM, Floortom said:

Again - I don’t see us having a chance in hell of getting a top 6 slot.

what I am hoping for is Panama passing El Salvador. That will give us a better chance at being the number 4 qualifier and getting that playoff spot. 

Well we definitely have a chance now.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

Actually trying to get an understanding of the ranking and on the subject of co-efficient

"05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
15 – Nations League matches (group stage)

..."

Friendlies inside the window seem high to me. The logic there?

[Ansem]

Got this from someone else

10 September

League A
Cuba(945) vs. Canada(1317) 0-1
1 - (1/(10^(-372/600) + 1)) = 0.1935
25 * 0.1935 = 4.8375
CAN +5 CUB -5

Haiti(1276) vs. Curacao(1321) 1-1
0.5 - (1/(10^(45/600) + 1)) = 0.0431
25 * 0.0431 = 1.0775
HAI +1 CUW -1

League B
Dominican Republic(1028) vs. El Salvador(1347) 1-0
1 - (1/(10^(319/600) + 1)) = 0.7728
25 * 0.7728 = 19.32
DOM +19 SLV -19

Friendlies
USA(1544) vs. Uruguay(1640) 1-1
0.5 - (1/(10^(96/600) + 1)) = 0.0911
10 * 0.0911 = 0.911
USA +1 URU -1

Honduras(1352) vs. Chile(1583) 2-1
1 - (1/(10^(231/600) + 1)) = 0.7082
10 * 0.7082 = 7.082
HON +7 CHI -7

Argentina(1610) vs. Mexico(1608) 4-0
1 - (1/(10^(-2/600) + 1)) = 0.4981
10 * 0.4981 = 4.981
ARG +5 MEX -5

MEX 1603 (-1)
USA 1545 (-3)
CRC 1442 (-3)
JAM 1434 (+9)
HON 1359 (+9)
SLV 1328 (-14)
-----------------
CAN 1322 (+10) [+1]
CUW 1320 (+11) [+1]
PAN 1316 (-15) [-2]
HAI 1277 (-11)
TRI 1226
ATG 1137 (+1)
(point change since last official rankings)
[position change since last official rankings]

[Kent]

Since it is clear that it is mathematically possible for us to make the hex without playing any friendlies, I'm now dreading the potential situation where we schedule a friendly or two and lose them, and have those lost points be the difference between making the hex and not. I can't imagine what the discussions on this board would be like.

[sstackho]

On 9/4/2019 at 12:37 PM, ardsa said:

I know, but it is the semantics of it I am referring to. Rankings seem to come out 8 days after an international window closes, or a major tournament finishes. Points are calculated on a daily basis, but not published right away.

The June 2020 window is 1-9 June. This is when the Nations League semi-finals and finals will be. Canada will either compete in these matches or schedule friendlies ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Rankings should be published June 17th.

Is it too hard for Concacaf to be clear that it is the June 17th rankings that will determine the hex? Make it clear that it is not the rankings as of June 1 or 30th. What is stopping us from scheduling more friendlies outside of the June window to scrape a few points until the end of June?

 

The CONCACAF press release states:

Hexagonal format, will be contested between the top six ranked Concacaf Member Associations based on the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020.

Sounds pretty clear to me that this would be the June 17th rankings that you refer to. 

[Lansdude]

Good news that El Salvador has four more matches against weak opponents but I think I'd prefer a friendly or two so we can take matters in our own hands.

[sstackho]

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

Edited September 11, 2019 by sstackho

[Califax]

49 minutes ago, Kent said:

Since it is clear that it is mathematically possible for us to make the hex without playing any friendlies, I'm now dreading the potential situation where we schedule a friendly or two and lose them, and have those lost points be the difference between making the hex and not. I can't imagine what the discussions on this board would be like.

[Blackdude]

3 hours ago, sstackho said:

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

Gold Cup qualification would start in March for them if they finish second. And yes, it would give them more ooportunities, but PSO calculator would only happen if you have 2 draws with the same results since it's home and away.

[ghostknownunknown]

11 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

Actually trying to get an understanding of the ranking and on the subject of co-efficient

"05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
15 – Nations League matches (group stage)

..."

Friendlies inside the window seem high to me. The logic there?

Nations league matches have a coefficient of 25 as they are qualification matches for the Gold Cup.

https://www.concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup

Quote

For the FIFA Men’s World Ranking, all  2019-2020 Concacaf Nations League matches will be granted a coefficient score which corresponds to qualification matches to a Confederations final competition, rather than friendly international matches played during FIFA International Match Calendar window.

 

 

Edited September 12, 2019 by ghostknownunknown

[Gian-Luca]

8 hours ago, sstackho said:

Although it's nice to have El Salvador drop points, should they finish second in their group then they enter the Gold Cup qualification playoffs in June.  This gives them more opportunity to gain points.  I don't think they are proteted from losing points in the playoffs (as I don't think this is a "knock-out round of a final competition"), but I'm not 100% sure.

FIFA: 

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points

So let me get this straight - this effectively means that the more unsuccessful El Salvador is as top seed in a League B group (never mind League A), the better it is for their chances of making the Hex.

Nice job Concacaf in thinking through this qualification process. So glad that they are making this system foolproof to ensure that the best teams are guaranteed spots in the Hex.🙄

 

[Kent]

13 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

So let me get this straight - this effectively means that the more unsuccessful El Salvador is as top seed in a League B group (never mind League A), the better it is for their chances of making the Hex.

Nice job Concacaf in thinking through this qualification process. So glad that they are making this system foolproof to ensure that the best teams are guaranteed spots in the Hex.🙄

 

Well, no. They just gained a couple points for a win against St. Lucia and lost 18 or 19 points for losing to Dominican Republic. For them to finish 2nd in their group they will have to at a bare minimum lose another game in their last 4 games. They have already lost significant points over their first 2 games combined, and they will lose more points over their last 4 games if they have 3 wins and 1 loss.

Then their first round of playoffs would be against the Group C winners, which would get them very minimal points unless they beat Guatemala. Even the following round against the relegated League A teams, you are likely looking at teams like Cuba, Bermuda, T&T or Martinique (Martinique would give 0 points), and Haiti. Cuba and Bermuda wouldn't give them many points, and Martinique would give them 0 points.

El Salvador would have been better off to win all 6 of their games and not have these playoffs. But it is a bit weird to have an extra chance at points that could potentially make the difference for them.

[to70]

 

The latest FIFA rankings that came came out with El Salvador in 6th place in CONCACAF

72	El Salvador	1327
75	Canada	1322
76	Curacao	1320

77

Panama

1316

[MtlMario]

Things not looking as gloomy now. GO CANADA GO

[dyslexic nam]

22 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

Things not looking as gloomy now. GO CANADA GO

Still gotta get through the US though.  And while it seems like things are lining up for our best chance to do that, it still will be a huge test for us.

Fingers crossed...

[to70]

Canada plays US home and away

Panama plays Mexico home and away

Curacao plays Costa Rica home away

El Salvador which is in the "B" level of the Nations League plays Montserrat home and away, Dominican Republic at home and has an away game at St. Lucia.

[Alex]

We should line up a friendly vs El Salvador in March for all the marbles.