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So for those of us who gloss over when you guys talks coefficients, spread sheets and formulas, does this give us any sort of realistic shot at the hex for this cycle?   It seems like other countries would have the same numerical benefit in their CNL matches - no?

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2 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

So for those of us who gloss over when you guys talks coefficients, spread sheets and formulas, does this give us any sort of realistic shot at the hex for this cycle?   It seems like other countries would have the same numerical benefit in their CNL matches - no?

Other countries would benefit, but not as much as us bc our opponent USA is highly ranked. If we beat them, that would be a major boost in points. Of course if Panama beats Mexico, we're finished.

Realistically, we are already finished as the gap is too wide and El Salvador and Panama both need to crash out badly, picking up next to no points between now and June.

Only if we beat USA home and away should we dare start dreaming of a miracle.

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31 minutes ago, ardsa said:

There is new information from the Gold Cup 2021 thread. These games are now assigned an importance of a Gold Cup Qualifier, (I = 25 instead of 15). Therefore there are 1.66 times more points up for grabs.

Games vs Cuba worth about 5 points for a win or loss (actual points in game 2 depend on revised team points following game 1)

Games vs USA worth about 17.8  points instead of 10.7 

 

 

So

A.Canada would need to be perfect in group stage (4 wins, 0 loss) with a meltdown from
  • Honduras (Trinidad-Martinique group) should win the group but Martinique gets you 0 points
  • Panama(Mexico-Bermuda group) should remain in League A, no playoffs
  • El Salvador (Dominican Republic-St.Lucia-Monserrat) League B means no playoffs
B.If Honduras wins the group, Canada MUST also advance
  • Canada must reach the finals by winning its semifinals (Avoiding Mexico)
  • Honduras must lose its semifinals (losing to Mexico)
C.If Canada wins the whole tournament, they should leapfrog to #6 but barely
  • They will need to play and win against good teams in the remaining windows to maintain their 6th spot
Edited by Ansem

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See Concacaf updates seems to see a thriller: you never know how new it will come out. 

For now, for this first round of matches, Panama's victory against Bermuda in Hamilton is not guaranteed. A draw would help Canada. On the other hand, El Salvador plays at home against St Lucia: 3 easy points.

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1 minute ago, xabuep2 said:

See Concacaf updates seems to see a thriller: you never know how new it will come out. 

For now, for this first round of matches, Panama's victory against Bermuda in Hamilton is not guaranteed. A draw would help Canada. On the other hand, El Salvador plays at home against St Lucia: 3 easy points.

However, they can't advance to playoffs

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As we are thinking of scenarios, keep in mind that the Nations League Playoffs (top team from each of the four League A groups) will playoff in June 2020. These will I have I=25 (Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions), but there should be no loss of points if we don't win those games. Of course the FIFA document only references "competitive tournaments" - Nations League should apply. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but these matches may count for the Hex top 6.

 

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4 minutes ago, ardsa said:

As we are thinking of scenarios, keep in mind that the Nations League Playoffs (top team from each of the four League A groups) will playoff in June 2020. These will I have I=25 (Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions), but there should be no loss of points if we don't win those games. Of course the FIFA document only references "competitive tournaments" - Nations League should apply. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but these matches may count for the Hex top 6.

 

The whole tournament will count!

All 35 FIFA-affiliated national teams from CONCACAF will enter qualification. Teams will be seeded based on their June 2020 FIFA rankings.

Source: Wikipedia

Edited by Ansem

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I'm just echoing everyone's frustration, but Concacaf really needs to do better in laying out their four year schedules in advance and advising teams of the "Importance" factor of every game. This is amateur hour, and not just for Canada. Panama has apparently scheduled a bunch of friendlies that may not accomplish what they wanted them to do now that the Nations League games are worth more. They may have wasted millions of dollars with their plans as well.

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11 minutes ago, ardsa said:

I'm just echoing everyone's frustration, but Concacaf really needs to do better in laying out their four year schedules in advance and advising teams of the "Importance" factor of every game. This is amateur hour, and not just for Canada. Panama has apparently scheduled a bunch of friendlies that may not accomplish what they wanted them to do now that the Nations League games are worth more. They may have wasted millions of dollars with their plans as well.

Hard to disagree, even if the recent announcement may benefit us.

These qualifying processes should be laid out and accessible well in advance.  This kind of ad hoc decision making is not in anyone's best interest. 

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7 minutes ago, Ansem said:

The whole tournament will count!

All 35 FIFA-affiliated national teams from CONCACAF will enter qualification. Teams will be seeded based on their June 2020 FIFA rankings.

Source: Wikipedia

I know, but it is the semantics of it I am referring to. Rankings seem to come out 8 days after an international window closes, or a major tournament finishes. Points are calculated on a daily basis, but not published right away.

The June 2020 window is 1-9 June. This is when the Nations League semi-finals and finals will be. Canada will either compete in these matches or schedule friendlies ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Rankings should be published June 17th.

Is it too hard for Concacaf to be clear that it is the June 17th rankings that will determine the hex? Make it clear that it is not the rankings as of June 1 or 30th. What is stopping us from scheduling more friendlies outside of the June window to scrape a few points until the end of June?

 

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I'm feeling pretty excited about this change, knowing that the Nations League matches will be worth more. Excellent! Now we just have to take care of our business and hope that El Salvador is held to a draw maybe once or twice by Montserrat, Dominican Republic, or Saint Lucia. It's a shame we only have 4 group stage matches when El Salvador, qualifying in a lower group, plays 6.

Thinking way too far ahead to after the group stage, you'll notice they didn't draw placeholder matchups for the semi-finals when the group stage draws were made. I'm assuming they want to see who wins each group first before determining those. Should we end up with a scenario where the group winners are us, Mexico, Honduras, and someone from Group D, we have to avoid playing Mexico in the semi. Best case scenario, Honduras would get Mexico in the semi while we played the Group D winner.

It will be fun to see how it all plays out now with the higher multipliers. I'm really hoping we see an October and November friendly develop. Even if they only get us 2 or 3 extra points each window, that could literally make all the difference by next June.

Edited by jtpc

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4 minutes ago, jtpc said:

If you really wanted to roll the dice on a top 6 finish, a Canada/Honduras semi would be fascinating because if we won, Honduras would lose the same number of points that we would gain. Just as an example, you could close a 20 point ranking differential very quickly from one match since one team wins 10 points and the other team loses 10.

I'm not sure it is possible to decrease points in the semi-final or finals. Those matches should be:
 

I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions

Competitive matches in championship tournaments are now distinguished between group stage matches and late-stage knock-out matches in order to reward the most successful teams in the most difficult competitions. Furthermore, to mitigate the negative consequences of losing matches in championship tournaments, losses in the knock-out rounds of final competitions will not result in point deductions for the losing team.

source:
https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a

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I can’t easily check right now, but aren’t the nations league playoffs in March rather than June? As for the people pointing out El Salvador doesn’t have an opportunity for nations league playoffs, they do seem to have a chance at gold cup qualifying playoffs if they win their group. When are those games to be played?

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34 minutes ago, Kent said:

I can’t easily check right now, but aren’t the nations league playoffs in March rather than June? As for the people pointing out El Salvador doesn’t have an opportunity for nations league playoffs, they do seem to have a chance at gold cup qualifying playoffs if they win their group. When are those games to be played?

Nations League Playoffs are in June. 

If El Salvador wins their group, they are in the Gold Cup without needing a playoff. Playoffs are only for teams finishing 3rd in League A, 2nd in League B and 1st in League C. 

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45 minutes ago, Kent said:

I can’t easily check right now, but aren’t the nations league playoffs in March rather than June?

https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup

Quote

The Concacaf Nations League Finals, originally scheduled for March of 2020, will now take place in June

Canada, Honduras, and Panama have 4 + 2 possible games in Nations League. Honduras has the easier opponents.

Canada is in tough and it may be impossible to make the hex. Mexico, US, and Costa Rica are likely guaranteed. Jamaica and El Salvador have 6 easy high point games. Honduras has an easier schedule and likely cannot be caught.

I may get ambitious tonight with a spreadsheet, but I don't think we have a shot at top 6 points in June 2020  without winning all of our games through at least semi-finals if not the final of Nations League.

edit:

Honduras is in a group with Martinique and those won't accrue points. They have 2 guaranteed games.

 

 

 

Edited by ardsa
errors

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The other BS thing about this change to the system is the Non-FIFA games now.  Having non FIFA teams in CONCACAF League and gold cup really screws up the calculations and makes it a crap shoot.

I see Honduras is getting burned now but how much has this effected our ranking?

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23 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

The other BS thing about this change to the system is the Non-FIFA games now.  Having non FIFA teams in CONCACAF League and gold cup really screws up the calculations and makes it a crap shoot.

I see Honduras is getting burned now but how much has this effected our ranking?

I've taken a stab at answering this question. There isn't going to be a perfect way to do this, but what I did was looked at the current ELO rankings (https://www.eloratings.net/) of French Guiana and Martinique. Martinique are currently 91st and French Guiana is 132nd. I then looked at the number of FIFA points the 91st and 132nd ranked teams have to get a ballpark estimate for how many points these 2 countries would have if they were FIFA nations. So that gave me 1265 for Martinique and 1091 for French Guiana. Canada's current points are 1312.

We played Martinique in the Gold Cup group stage this year, so that gives the match an importance coefficient of 35. We played French Guiana in a Nations League qualifier, which I'm not sure but I'm thinking it's importance coefficient is 10, the same as a friendly in a FIFA window. Plug those numbers in the formula and I believe you get just shy of 19 points. If you also include the French Guiana Gold Cup game from 2017 (but that was before this ranking system was introduced) that would be an additional 10.5 points, for a total of 29 extra points from our last 3 non-FIFA games.

But wait, there's more. I also did the same exercise for the nations around us in the rankings. Haiti and El Salvador didn't have any matches against non-FIFA nations from the 2017 Gold Cup on. Honduras, Panama and Curacao did have games against non-FIFA nations. Here are what the rankings would look like after my number crunching.

Actual FIFA rankings
Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1350
El Salvador 1342
Panama 1331
Canada 1312
Curacao 1309
 

Using non-FIFA results dating back to when the new ranking procedure was introduced.

Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1350
El Salvador 1342
Panama 1331
Canada 1331 (19 points above actual)
Curacao 1311 (2 points above actual)

Using non-FIFA results dating back to the 2017 Gold Cup (plus I threw in a Caribbean Cup win for Curaco a month earlier)

Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1359 (9 points above actual)
Panama 1346 (15 points above actual)
El Salvador 1342
Canada 1341 (29 points above actual)
Curacao 1322 (13 points above actual)

Note: I didn't do the calculations for the top 4 teams because they are sufficiently out of reach, so they maybe would have a bit more or less if they played against any non-FIFA countries.

So yeah, we got hurt significantly more than others. We would be in 7th (first calculation) or 8th (second calculation) and instead of being 30 points out of 6th we would be 11 points out (first calculation) or 5 points out (second calculation).

Math/ranking nerds, let me know if I screwed something up or if you've got a better way of doing this.

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On 9/3/2019 at 2:05 PM, Redpunkfiddle said:

With much appreciation for Maplebanana, Kent and others who did early crunch work on the FIFA ranking points calculations, I came across this site which is posting all international matches with FIFA point implications. 

http://www.football-ranking.com/calculate

 

 

Darn it, this site still has the importance coefficient at 15 instead of 25 for the nations league games.

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I think these are the points at stake for the most important games for us in this window. The win column are the points awarded to El Salvador, Canada, or Panama for a win. The Lose and Draw columns are the points deducted from El Salvador, Canada, or Panama for the respective result.

  Win Lose Draw
El Salvador vs St. Lucia 4.916666667 20.08333333 7.583333333
Canada vs Cuba 4.983333333 20.01666667 7.516666667
El Salvador vs Dominican Republic 5.75 19.25 6.75
Panama vs Bermuda 5.033333333 19.96666667 7.466666667


Panama already won their first game against Bermuda, but they still have one more. These points are calculated based on their points before that match because I'm lazy. It will still be basically 5 points gained or 20 points lost. So really we need to win our games more so to avoid losing big points, rather than to gain big points. With the right results (however unlikely that is) we could move into 6th place by the end of this window.

 

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Geepers!!  He never once acknowledged that more games would probably help the program, irregardless of points.  You skip camps, play as few games as possible for 2 years but now that you realize you need fifa points you try and get games.   As if they didnt serve any purpose before.  I want to be positive but everytime he opens his mouth it drives me crazy.  

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35 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Geepers!!  He never once acknowledged that more games would probably help the program, irregardless of points.  You skip camps, play as few games as possible for 2 years but now that you realize you need fifa points you try and get games.   As if they didnt serve any purpose before.  I want to be positive but everytime he opens his mouth it drives me crazy.  

 

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