The Road to Qatar.

[Kent]

23 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

The other BS thing about this change to the system is the Non-FIFA games now.  Having non FIFA teams in CONCACAF League and gold cup really screws up the calculations and makes it a crap shoot.

I see Honduras is getting burned now but how much has this effected our ranking?

I've taken a stab at answering this question. There isn't going to be a perfect way to do this, but what I did was looked at the current ELO rankings (https://www.eloratings.net/) of French Guiana and Martinique. Martinique are currently 91st and French Guiana is 132nd. I then looked at the number of FIFA points the 91st and 132nd ranked teams have to get a ballpark estimate for how many points these 2 countries would have if they were FIFA nations. So that gave me 1265 for Martinique and 1091 for French Guiana. Canada's current points are 1312.

We played Martinique in the Gold Cup group stage this year, so that gives the match an importance coefficient of 35. We played French Guiana in a Nations League qualifier, which I'm not sure but I'm thinking it's importance coefficient is 10, the same as a friendly in a FIFA window. Plug those numbers in the formula and I believe you get just shy of 19 points. If you also include the French Guiana Gold Cup game from 2017 (but that was before this ranking system was introduced) that would be an additional 10.5 points, for a total of 29 extra points from our last 3 non-FIFA games.

But wait, there's more. I also did the same exercise for the nations around us in the rankings. Haiti and El Salvador didn't have any matches against non-FIFA nations from the 2017 Gold Cup on. Honduras, Panama and Curacao did have games against non-FIFA nations. Here are what the rankings would look like after my number crunching.

Actual FIFA rankings
Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1350
El Salvador 1342
Panama 1331
Canada 1312
Curacao 1309
 

Using non-FIFA results dating back to when the new ranking procedure was introduced.

Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1350
El Salvador 1342
Panama 1331
Canada 1331 (19 points above actual)
Curacao 1311 (2 points above actual)

Using non-FIFA results dating back to the 2017 Gold Cup (plus I threw in a Caribbean Cup win for Curaco a month earlier)

Mexico 1604
USA 1548
Costa Rica 1445
Jamaica 1425
Honduras 1359 (9 points above actual)
Panama 1346 (15 points above actual)
El Salvador 1342
Canada 1341 (29 points above actual)
Curacao 1322 (13 points above actual)

Note: I didn't do the calculations for the top 4 teams because they are sufficiently out of reach, so they maybe would have a bit more or less if they played against any non-FIFA countries.

So yeah, we got hurt significantly more than others. We would be in 7th (first calculation) or 8th (second calculation) and instead of being 30 points out of 6th we would be 11 points out (first calculation) or 5 points out (second calculation).

Math/ranking nerds, let me know if I screwed something up or if you've got a better way of doing this.

[Kent]

On 9/3/2019 at 2:05 PM, Redpunkfiddle said:

With much appreciation for Maplebanana, Kent and others who did early crunch work on the FIFA ranking points calculations, I came across this site which is posting all international matches with FIFA point implications. 

http://www.football-ranking.com/calculate

 

 

Darn it, this site still has the importance coefficient at 15 instead of 25 for the nations league games.

[baulderdash77]

@Kent  I think this is roughly what I was thinking.  It wouldn’t necessarily move us up as much but it would certainly give us margin for error.

 

[Kent]

I think these are the points at stake for the most important games for us in this window. The win column are the points awarded to El Salvador, Canada, or Panama for a win. The Lose and Draw columns are the points deducted from El Salvador, Canada, or Panama for the respective result.

	Win	Lose	Draw
El Salvador vs St. Lucia	4.916666667	20.08333333	7.583333333
Canada vs Cuba	4.983333333	20.01666667	7.516666667
El Salvador vs Dominican Republic	5.75	19.25	6.75
Panama vs Bermuda	5.033333333	19.96666667	7.466666667

Panama already won their first game against Bermuda, but they still have one more. These points are calculated based on their points before that match because I'm lazy. It will still be basically 5 points gained or 20 points lost. So really we need to win our games more so to avoid losing big points, rather than to gain big points. With the right results (however unlikely that is) we could move into 6th place by the end of this window.

 

[BrennanFan]

Good article with quotes from Herdman on possible upcoming friendlies:

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/soccer/news/canada-looks-to-make-big-rankings-jump-with-concacaf-nations-league-friendly-matches/1nn9rfndtb6ll15dkfq2abzfe2

[Bison44]

Geepers!!  He never once acknowledged that more games would probably help the program, irregardless of points.  You skip camps, play as few games as possible for 2 years but now that you realize you need fifa points you try and get games.   As if they didnt serve any purpose before.  I want to be positive but everytime he opens his mouth it drives me crazy.  

[RS]

35 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Geepers!!  He never once acknowledged that more games would probably help the program, irregardless of points.  You skip camps, play as few games as possible for 2 years but now that you realize you need fifa points you try and get games.   As if they didnt serve any purpose before.  I want to be positive but everytime he opens his mouth it drives me crazy.  

 

[Bison44]

Again...so frustrating.  He has had plenty of time to get games against other tougher teams.  First he says these CNL games are great we love the competetive nature, blah blah, no more meaningless friendlies.  Then its a 180 flip.....now he doesnt want the CNL games he wants the friendlies He avoided like the plague for the almost 2 years.  If we lose to the USA he'll have another story about how he had another team in mind for that window but was forced to play USA.  Quit trying to spin things all the time it just mkaes you sound more like a snake oil salesman...the tune up friendlies against decent opponents are a good idea and always were.  The CNL isnt all bad either, but with the CNL you take your lumps, sometimes you'll play Costa rica or USA, sometimes u have to play Cuba or ST kitts.  Its not all geared to help you game the system.  

[BrennanFan]

17 minutes ago, RS said:

 

Glad this idea has finally dawned on Herdman. Better late than never I guess.

[Kent]

Finally got to see the Canada vs Cuba game, so I lifted my blackout. Panama lost to Bermuda! That's actually huge. If my calculations are correct, we are just ahead of Panama in the rankings right now (but it's not updated of course) and another win against Cuba on Tuesday will maintain that position and show in the next rankings.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

One game at a time and all that but really has to be results against the States doesn't it?   

(Apologise; still getting a handle on the minutiae of math on this - how many points is actually too many to make up, for instance )

One problem with this format is that the teams around us are:

1) playing in a easier group A and should pick up results (Honduras) 

2) playing in group B and should pick up results  (El Salvador) 

3) Playing in a group A where the "big team" (Costa Rica) is beatable but really would have to work hard to lose the cushion they have for staying in the Hex (103 points last rankings)  - (Curacao)

Panama looks catchable by schedule and recent results (19 points difference) but we have to catch 2 (El Salvador difference is at 30) and hold off 1 realistically. 

I guess one thing going for us is the US is probably over-ranked at this point. 

Please feel free to pick that apart and correct me.   

[Kent]

3 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

One game at a time and all that but really has to be results against the States doesn't it?   

(Apologise; still getting a handle on the minutiae of math on this - how many points is actually too many to make up, for instance )

One problem with this format is that the teams around us are:

1) playing in a easier group A and should pick up results (Honduras) 

2) playing in group B and should pick up results  (El Salvador) 

3) Playing in a group A where the "big team" (Costa Rica) is beatable but really would have to work hard to lose the cushion they have for staying in the Hex (103 points last rankings)  - (Curacao)

Panama looks catchable by schedule and recent results (19 points difference) but we have to catch 2 (El Salvador difference is at 30) and hold off 1 realistically. 

I guess one thing going for us is the US is probably over-ranked at this point. 

Please feel free to pick that apart and correct me.   

The thing about El Salvador, is that yes they will be expected to win each individual game, but each game is worth a small number of points if they win. However, if they are upset, they lose a lot of points. As my chart in the previous page of this thread shows for example, a win against Dominican Republic is worth 5 or 6 points, but a tie loses them 6 or 7, and a loss means they lose about 19 points. With them playing 6 games you have to think there is a decent chance of them slipping up once or twice. Let's say they get a loss and a tie and 4 wins at about 5 points per win and 15 points for a loss, and 5 points lost for a draw (rough numbers for easy math). Their 4 wins would give them 20 points, and their loss and draw would cost them 20 points, so they sit still. If they lose 2 and win 4, they fall back 10 points.

So yes it is an easier schedule for them, but they don't have a ton to gain but have a lot to lose. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes down.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Kent
"easy math" not "each math"

[shorty]

I actually believe that Monserrat can take points from ES. They were seconds away from doing so in the CNL qualifying and barely missed qualifying for the Gold Cup.  Go for 2 wins against the US because that’s what we need to do on a regular basis if we have ambitions of inhabiting a higher level, but I suspect from a points perspective a pair of draws might even be enough now to get us in the hex thanks to Bermuda. Go Monserrat!!!

[dyslexic nam]

Based on historical let downs and soul crushing collapses, I refuse to get optimistic about these scenarios.  I maintains a high level of expectation for our team, but am highly skeptical that the starts will align for us.  History just doesn’t support that kind of mindset. 

[Alex]

Don’t count on El Salvador running the table at 6-0. They only beat st Lucia (the weakest team of the 4) 3-0 at home and it was 1-0 into the 70th minute. I expect Montserrat and Dominican Republic to be tougher tests. 

[Obinna]

Does anyone know if margin of victory factors into these equations? 

[Redpunkfiddle]

29 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Does anyone know if margin of victory factors into these equations? 

For Fifa points? Nope. No home advantage weighting. Its all based on the difference in the ranking points between the two teams, times the importance of the match.

For our CNL group games? Yep, its a tiebreaker for the group.

[An Observer]

9 hours ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

For Fifa points? Nope. No home advantage weighting. Its all based on the difference in the ranking points between the two teams, times the importance of the match.

For our CNL group games? Yep, its a tiebreaker for the group.

I assume Group A matches don't have more importance than Group B ones? If so, seems wrong.  You should be rewarded for qualifying to that level 

[SkuseisLoose]

20 minutes ago, An Observer said:

I assume Group A matches don't have more importance than Group B ones? If so, seems wrong.  You should be rewarded for qualifying to that level 

They don’t as it’s all based on what the tournament purpose is. As it’s serving as qualifying for the 2021 gold cup they’re all considered continental qualifiers by fifa and are given an importance of 25.

[Kent]

I'm really not sure, but I think if we beat USA on October 15th, we will be ahead of El Salvador even if they win both of their October Nations League games. I really need to wait for the next rankings and start fresh before I can say for sure, but I think we will be a couple points ahead of them in that scenario.

Of course if Panama beats Mexico or Curacao beats Costa Rica, we would likely be behind them, but I haven't actually run the numbers on all that.

[dyslexic nam]

Aside from Curaçao equalizing, this round of matches basically went as well as they could for us. That is encouraging.  

[Kent]

16 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Aside from Curaçao equalizing, this round of matches basically went as well as they could for us. That is encouraging.  

A week or so ago, definitely before the announcement of the Gold Cup qualifying details it looked like even if we ran the table in Nations League, including the semi and final, we would need a lot of help to have a chance at the hex. Now it looks like we already have that help. I'm sure if we were to run the table (incredibly unlikely) we would easily be in the hex. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. I'm ready for the October games to start now please.

[dyslexic nam]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

A week or so ago, definitely before the announcement of the Gold Cup qualifying details it looked like even if we ran the table in Nations League, including the semi and final, we would need a lot of help to have a chance at the hex. Now it looks like we already have that help. I'm sure if we were to run the table (incredibly unlikely) we would easily be in the hex. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. I'm ready for the October games to start now please.

And with this round done, we can all start voodoo hexing the other teams and hoping for an encore of stumbles by our competition.  

[LACanadian]

If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation	Previous	Game 1	Game 2	New
El Salvador	1342	5.4	-18.7	1328.7
Canada	1314	5.6	5.6	1325.2

[Redpunkfiddle]

52 minutes ago, LACanadian said:

If the coefficient is actually i=25 (and my calcs are actually correct) then we made up 24.5 points on El Salvador this window so we should only be trailing them by 3 or 4 points depending on decimals...

Nation	Previous	Game 1	Game 2	New
El Salvador	1342	5.4	-18.7	1328.7
Canada	1314	5.6	5.6	1325.2

This is wise and just.