The Road to Qatar.

[Shway]

 

Quote

[ESPNFutbolArgentina] Christian Martin confirms that Emi Martinez, Emi Buendia, Cuti Romero and Gio Lo Celso WILL travel to South America for the WCQ

JFF there's hope!

[theaub]

2 hours ago, maplebanana said:

By any chance did you base this on a simulation, or just by taking prior Hex results and scaling to Ocho based on points-per-game?

I am really considering writing a simple MATLAB based simulation to actually figure out the median and confidence interval for 3rd and 4th.

I got someone smarter than me to run a real simulation and that's what it came up with.  

It was pre-GC so if anything the newer ELO rankings would favour us even more in outlier scenarios for 3rd.

 

[sstackho]

KJ did the math.

 

[Floortom]

Wrong thread 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Floortom

[maplebanana]

15 minutes ago, sstackho said:

KJ did the math.

 

Yeah, I saw that earlier but that's still based on a PPG basis, using past data. I would love to see a proper simulation that can get 1000's of combinations in so we can see what the confidence interval is. I imagine the story changes quite significantly the more asymmetric the field is. i.e. if 2 teams dominate and win every game and the other 6 are all coin tosses (and a lot of draws), then the 3rd place needs significantly less points. 

[TOcanadafan]

1 hour ago, maplebanana said:

Yeah, I saw that earlier but that's still based on a PPG basis, using past data. I would love to see a proper simulation that can get 1000's of combinations in so we can see what the confidence interval is. I imagine the story changes quite significantly the more asymmetric the field is. i.e. if 2 teams dominate and win every game and the other 6 are all coin tosses (and a lot of draws), then the 3rd place needs significantly less points. 

Also need to find some way to factor in Central American sketchiness for final couple of games.

Edited August 27, 2021 by TOcanadafan

[SpursFlu]

You know what I would love... to just watch the games in real life. That will likely be 100% accurate 

Starts in a week

Edited August 28, 2021 by SpursFlu

[youllneverwalkalone]

We've built up some great depth for this cycle. This group of 23 on paper would look pretty good against much of our competition: Breza, Hasal, St. Clair, Cornelius, James, Waterman, Gutierrez, Bassong, ZBG, Cordova, Teibert, Baldisomo, Priso, Arfield, Chapman, Edwards, M. Choiniere,  Akinola, Corbeanu, Akindele, Pasher,  Ennin,  Amanda.

That 23 excludes all the CPLers, which would be unheard of for Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jebbison/Flores, and younger MLSers still trying to prove themselves in Okello, Nelson, Tabla, Marshall-Rutty, Bahiya, Schaffleburg, Peruzza and Raposo, and a couple decent pros in H. Paton, B. Paton, Twardek, Elva,  Bair, and Zanatta playing at slightly sus levels.

Didn't even mention Ferdi or Tomori.

[archer21]

4 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

We've built up some great depth for this cycle. This group of 23 on paper would look pretty good against much of our competition: Breza, Hasal, St. Clair, Cornelius, James, Waterman, Gutierrez, Bassong, ZBG, Cordova, Teibert, Baldisomo, Priso, Arfield, Chapman, Edwards, M. Choiniere,  Akinola, Corbeanu, Akindele, Pasher,  Ennin,  Amanda.

That 23 excludes all the CPLers, which would be unheard of for Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jebbison/Flores, and younger MLSers still trying to prove themselves in Okello, Nelson, Tabla, Marshall-Rutty, Bahiya, Schaffleburg, Peruzza and Raposo, and a couple decent pros in H. Paton, B. Paton, Twardek, Elva,  Bair, and Zanatta playing at slightly sus levels.

Didn't even mention Ferdi or Tomori.

Missed Millar as well.

[maplebanana]

23 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

You know what I would love... to just watch the games in real life. That will likely be 100% accurate 

Starts in a week

Doing analytics to gain some insight is not mutually exclusive with watching the games. I'll do that, too, of course.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 8/27/2021 at 4:22 PM, maplebanana said:

Yeah, I saw that earlier but that's still based on a PPG basis, using past data. I would love to see a proper simulation that can get 1000's of combinations in so we can see what the confidence interval is. I imagine the story changes quite significantly the more asymmetric the field is. i.e. if 2 teams dominate and win every game and the other 6 are all coin tosses (and a lot of draws), then the 3rd place needs significantly less points. 

I'm going to use the CanPL method. 🍁

8 teams in the league, and, very conveniently, 14 matches for each team have been played so far!

https://canpl.ca/standings

22 points gets you 4th place, the current standing of Forge.

I'll take that as an omen.

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[narduch]

15 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I'm going to use the CanPL method. 🍁

8 teams in the league, and, very conveniently, 14 matches for each team have been played so far!

https://canpl.ca/standings

22 points gets you 4th place, the current standing of Forge.

I'll take that as an omen.

 

When you making the match thread?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

2 minutes ago, narduch said:

When you making the match thread?

Tomorrow evening when all the guys have played their last club match prior to flying out.

I wanted to include some history in the opening post; the Figueroa vs Hutchinson WCQ rivalry goes back to 2004!

Works for you?

 

[apbsmith]

10 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Tomorrow evening when all the guys have played their last club match prior to flying out.

I wanted to include some history in the opening post; the Figueroa vs Hutchinson WCQ rivalry goes back to 2004!

Works for you?

 

You took my glory from 2019 Gold Cup ... But I'm happy you did. It's all you now moving forward my friend :). 

[Sal333]

12 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I'm going to use the CanPL method. 🍁

8 teams in the league, and, very conveniently, 14 matches for each team have been played so far!

https://canpl.ca/standings

22 points gets you 4th place, the current standing of Forge.

I'll take that as an omen.

 

Those CPL standings are not a bad indicator except for two minor points. There probably is more parity in the CPL than the WCQs and the home and away games are not evenly distributed yet in the CPL standings.

Also do we really want to finish 4th?

Other than that it works.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Sal333

[narduch]

Interesting.

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

5 hours ago, Sal333 said:

Those CPL standings are not a bad indicator except for two minor points. There probably is more parity in the CPL than the WCQs and the home and away games are not evenly distributed yet in the CPL standings.

Also do we really want to finish 4th?

Other than that it works.

1) With the rise of our beloved #CanMNT and a weaker Costa Rica, I feel there could be more parity than expected.

2) We don't want to finish 4th but that is obviously the minimum to avoid going home.

3) Away/Home matches are not like we are used to; reduced crowd size might lessen the psychological "home" factor and crazy 3-match travel windows might produce some shock results.

22 points feels like a safe number to (realistically) "aim" for.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Stryker911]

When is the latest Jamaica can release a roster?

[Floortom]

6 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

When is the latest Jamaica can release a roster?

Jamaican press is saying it will be released tomorrow but certain details have been leaked.

apparently Antonio, and a few others in England,will only be called for the home match versus Panama. 

[king1010]

24 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Jamaican press is saying it will be released tomorrow but certain details have been leaked.

apparently Antonio, and a few others in England,will only be called for the home match versus Panama. 

Theyre lucky Jamaica didn’t go into the UK redzone otherwise even a single game callup woukdve been unlikely. 

[Atlantic]

I’m guessing Jamaica will only call up so many EFL players because then it would just destroy their bench for the other games they cannot attend 

[dyslexic nam]

Someone on FB posed an intriguing question:

- If you could lock us in as the 4th place playoff spot right now, would you do it?

If I knew we would get the Oceanna winner in the playoff round, I wound take it.  But with the other playoff possibilities, including a CONMEBOL team that will likely be very strong, I would probably roll the dice for 3rd.  

[youllneverwalkalone]

[Floortom]

2 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Someone on FB posed an intriguing question:

- If you could lock us in as the 4th place playoff spot right now, would you do it?

If I knew we would get the Oceanna winner in the playoff round, I wound take it.  But with the other playoff possibilities, including a CONMEBOL team that will likely be very strong, I would probably roll the dice for 3rd.  

A guaranteed 4th place finish would probably give us a ~ 50/50 chance of earning a World Cup spot.

I guess the question is do you think we currently have a 50/50 of being third or higher in the Octagonal - to me thats probably a no. I think having a guaranteed 4th spot would give us a better chance of making the Qatar than does playing in the Octagonal

[Stryker911]

I was curious what people's thoughts were on who do you cheer for in the other games? Do you want US and Mexico to win all their games? Do you cheer against Honduras regardless of opponent?