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The Road to Qatar.


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3 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

We seem to be causing controversy among other pundits in the region.

I don't speak Spanish but as best as I can tell these Spanish-speaking pundits (I'm assuming Mexican) about 10 minutes into this video claim that Canada is a threat but mostly because Victor Montagliani is the Concacaf President. The guy who mentions this also points out that in addition to Davies, we also have Kaye, Osorio and Cavallini although the mention of the latter's name almost sends the outspoken one, Jorge Ramos, into disdainful convulsions. I generally get the impression that Ramos thinks that not only is Canada complete shit but so is everyone else in the region in comparison to Mexico & the US, although again, it has to be stressed that I am gleaning more than I am translating.

 

this Jorge Ramos guy reminds me  of the some of the NHL pundits  on TSN and Shitsnet  that wrote off  the Montreal Canadiens during the Leaf series  Fuck Him . The female pundit is cute

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23 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

We seem to be causing controversy among other pundits in the region.

I don't speak Spanish but as best as I can tell these Spanish-speaking pundits (I'm assuming Mexican) about 10 minutes into this video claim that Canada is a threat but mostly because Victor Montagliani is the Concacaf President. The guy who mentions this also points out that in addition to Davies, we also have Kaye, Osorio and Cavallini although the mention of the latter's name almost sends the outspoken one, Jorge Ramos, into disdainful convulsions. I generally get the impression that Ramos thinks that not only is Canada complete shit but so is everyone else in the region in comparison to Mexico & the US, although again, it has to be stressed that I am gleaning more than I am translating.

 

I hope folks continue to underestimate us.  I am still more comfortable with us being the underdog.  

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How I predict the Octagonal standings to look like:

1- Mexico (qualifies directly for Qatar)

2- United States (return to the World Cup and qualify directly for Qatar)

3- Jamaica (qualify directly for Qatar and return to the World Cup for the first time in over 24 years since France 1998)

4- Canada (goes to the Intercontinental playoff)

5- Costa Rica 

6- Honduras

7- Panama

8- El Salvador 

 

Canada by us going to the Intercontinental playoff, we could be drawn with an Asian team or an Oceania team which could end up being New Zealand then Canada would be almost guaranteed to qualify for Qatar

If we end up being drawn with a South American team well the 5th place team from CONMEBOL, we have no chance at qualifying no matter who it is especially if it is Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, or Ecuador or even God forbid Argentina.

 

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3 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

How I predict the Octagonal standings to look like:

1- Mexico (qualifies directly for Qatar)

2- United States (return to the World Cup and qualify directly for Qatar)

3- Jamaica (qualify directly for Qatar and return to the World Cup for the first time in over 24 years since France 1998)

4- Canada (goes to the Intercontinental playoff)

5- Costa Rica 

6- Honduras

7- Panama

8- El Salvador 

 

Canada by us going to the Intercontinental playoff, we could be drawn with an Asian team or an Oceania team which could end up being New Zealand then Canada would be almost guaranteed to qualify for Qatar

If we end up being drawn with a South American team well the 5th place team from CONMEBOL, we have no chance at qualifying no matter who it is especially if it is Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, or Ecuador or even God forbid Argentina.

 

How do we have “no chance” against the likes of Paraguay and Ecuador?

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1 minute ago, archer21 said:

How do we have “no chance” against the likes of Paraguay and Ecuador?

Well considering the star power in South America...when is the last time a team from CONCACAF beat a team from South America in the playoffs to get to a World Cup? It has been decades and South American teams usually in the playoffs tend to get by whoever they face no matter who the team is. Which is why I said it could be any of the South American teams in the playoffs and if that happens, our chances wouldn't even look good if we're being honest here.

Which is why I said if we do become a playoff team by finishing 4th, we would have to hope for an Asian team or an Oceania team. 

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1 minute ago, TGAA_Star said:

Well considering the star power in South America...when is the last time a team from CONCACAF beat a team from South America in the playoffs to get to a World Cup? It has been decades and South American teams usually in the playoffs tend to get by whoever they face no matter who the team is. Which is why I said it could be any of the South American teams in the playoffs and if that happens, our chances wouldn't even look good if we're being honest here.

Which is why I said if we do become a playoff team by finishing 4th, we would have to hope for an Asian team or an Oceania team. 

It’s definitely better to play an Asian or Oceania team but I’d give us a shot of beating the lower half of CONMEBOL, even if we aren’t necessarily favourites.

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9 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I hope folks continue to underestimate us.  I am still more comfortable with us being the underdog.  

Again I could be wrong as I don't speak Spanish, but I got the distinct impression that most on the panel were overestimating us, and for the wrong reasons - not because we have the likes of Larin, David & Eustaquio (who don't seem to get a mention from the panel - they only seem to be aware of players that have played in Mexico or against Mexican competition in the CCL, the one exception being they have heard of Davies), but because we apparently have  Victor Montagliani suiting up for us as well.

The one guy who seemed to be derisive of Canada & every other non-Mexican team, I can't really blame too much if he's Mexican as I'm not really sure they have too much to be fretting about in terms of qualifying. It would be interesting to see if the pundits from the other nations think they have absolutely nothing to worry about from us though.

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2 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Well considering the star power in South America...when is the last time a team from CONCACAF beat a team from South America in the playoffs to get to a World Cup? It has been decades and South American teams usually in the playoffs tend to get by whoever they face no matter who the team is. Which is why I said it could be any of the South American teams in the playoffs and if that happens, our chances wouldn't even look good if we're being honest here.

Which is why I said if we do become a playoff team by finishing 4th, we would have to hope for an Asian team or an Oceania team. 

Our chances are best against a non-South American team, and while I agree with you that in general that is the toughest confederation to face, I think it honestly depends on who we face. I have been watching this years copa america here and there, and several of these teams seem pretty beatable. Anyone else notice that, or is that just me. Teams like Chile, Colombia and Ecuador have bigger reputations than Canada, obviously, but reputation doesn't win you games. I wouldn't consider us favoruites against any of those teams, but I wouldn't be scared either. The problem with South America is that is could be Uruguay or Argentina we face if either of them slip up, and that would be a death sentence, especially Argentina. Uruguay would be slightly better, but I would still consider us basically done.

And conversely, although I would want to face Asia there are some good teams there I would want to avoid. Japan and Korea for sure I wouldn't feel comfortable with, and Australia I would probably put in that category as well. Same with Iran too, I guess. All of those teams are likely as problematic as any of the South American, except of course Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil.

The only true gimmie is Oceania.

 

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5 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

What I want to know is what's the hold up in announcing who we'll (COCACAF) be facing and if we (2026) get automatic qualification? I just don't get what the big mystery is all about. Could someone ask Mont Vic in the next interview? 

I know right and considering if we are hosts in 2026, we should be gifted an automatic spot. However, I wouldn't be surprised if as a co host we have to take part in qualifying for our own home tournament. I mean same thing has happened to teams like Qatar for 2022 and South Africa for 2010 having to compete in qualifying for your own World Cup. Case in point in 2010 South Africa took part in qualifying and didn't qualify but were still able to play at their own World Cup. My point being if Canada isn't given an automatic spot, then we should at the very least be gifted a spot in the Hex or Octagonal.

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18 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

What I want to know is what's the hold up in announcing who we'll (COCACAF) be facing and if we (2026) get automatic qualification? I just don't get what the big mystery is all about. Could someone ask Mont Vic in the next interview? 

I'm predicting that Canada and Mexico will not get auto qualification.

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10 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

We seem to be causing controversy among other pundits in the region.

I don't speak Spanish but as best as I can tell these Spanish-speaking pundits (I'm assuming Mexican) about 10 minutes into this video claim that Canada is a threat but mostly because Victor Montagliani is the Concacaf President. The guy who mentions this also points out that in addition to Davies, we also have Kaye, Osorio and Cavallini although the mention of the latter's name almost sends the outspoken one, Jorge Ramos, into disdainful convulsions. I generally get the impression that Ramos thinks that not only is Canada complete shit but so is everyone else in the region in comparison to Mexico & the US, although again, it has to be stressed that I am gleaning more than I am translating.

 

I enjoy the fact that a lot of Anglo media call it "the ocho" and Spanish speaking media are calling it "el octagonal"

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23 minutes ago, narduch said:

I'm predicting that Canada and Mexico will not get auto qualification.

That would be a slap in the face, but there may be benefit to going through qualifying. Having that pressure is ahead of the tournament is a good thing, and given our trajectory we should expect to qualify in the 2026 cycle, especially considering it will be expanded.

The downsides are that a) we could miss out (obviously) and b) we wouldn't have a high seed as host, which could put us in a very challenging group.

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31 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I enjoy the fact that a lot of Anglo media call it "the ocho" and Spanish speaking media are calling it "el octagonal"

I just do it as an homage to the Dodgeball.

If TSN had an "ocho" channel, it would probably feature the World Cup of Pickleball.

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1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said:

I know right and considering if we are hosts in 2026, we should be gifted an automatic spot. However, I wouldn't be surprised if as a co host we have to take part in qualifying for our own home tournament. I mean same thing has happened to teams like Qatar for 2022 and South Africa for 2010 having to compete in qualifying for your own World Cup. Case in point in 2010 South Africa took part in qualifying and didn't qualify but were still able to play at their own World Cup. My point being if Canada isn't given an automatic spot, then we should at the very least be gifted a spot in the Hex or Octagonal.

South Africa for 2010 and Qatar for 2022 participated in World Cup Qualifying because it doubled as qualifying for their continental championships as well. That's the only reason.

As for CONMEBOL, I think they are 6-1 in inter confederation playoffs (only loss was to Australia in 2006 in penalties). It has been close in several of those wins, but it would be an absolute mountain to climb if we had to play them for a chance to get in.

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4 hours ago, MtlMario said:

What I want to know is what's the hold up in announcing who we'll (COCACAF) be facing and if we (2026) get automatic qualification? I just don't get what the big mystery is all about. Could someone ask Mont Vic in the next interview? 

He "confirmed" automatic qualification in this interview 14:00. But yes, nothing official from FIFA or CONCACAF

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2 hours ago, Kent said:

South Africa for 2010 and Qatar for 2022 participated in World Cup Qualifying because it doubled as qualifying for their continental championships as well. That's the only reason.

As for CONMEBOL, I think they are 6-1 in inter confederation playoffs (only loss was to Australia in 2006 in penalties). It has been close in several of those wins, but it would be an absolute mountain to climb if we had to play them for a chance to get in.

Exactly what I'm saying more or less which is why Canada if they finish 4th, you almost have to hope to draw an Asian or Oceania team to try to qualify for Qatar

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52 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I've said this before but the most fair way to do the Intercontinental playoff is to have all 4 teams play a neutral site round robin.  It will be in June so there is time for 3 matches.  Far more fair than a random draw.

In addition to being more fair this may also be more pragmatic, considering the potential for logistical challenges due to government restrictions.

They can perhaps market it as a play-in tournament and generate a real buzz. Furthermore, they could host it in Qatar to give them more of a dry run. It would be like a world cup appetizer. 

Downside would be that you'd lose the passion that comes with playing home and away for a spot in the world cup, but at least for this cycle it would arguably make sense.

Edited by Obinna
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9 minutes ago, Obinna said:

In addition to being more fair this may also be more pragmatic, considering the potential for logistical challenges due to government restrictions.

They can perhaps market it as a play-in tournament and generate a real buzz. Furthermore, they could host it in Qatar to give them more of a dry run. It would be like a world cup appetizer. 

Downside would be that you'd lose the passion that comes with playing home and away for a spot in the world cup, but at least for this cycle it would arguably make sense.

The other factor is climate.  If a team from the Middle East is involved then June temperatures would make their playoff home game a challenge. 

Qatar may be possible for a neutral site because several of the new stadiums are retractable roofs with air conditioning.  

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5 hours ago, Obinna said:

Downside would be that you'd lose the passion that comes with playing home and away for a spot in the world cup, but at least for this cycle it would arguably make sense.

This. Like Canada celebrating in an empty stadium when we made it to the Octagonal. You can't get perfect fairness. Maybe it's not fair that one team has to travel 5000km and another team 500km to get to the neutral site. Maybe the team that plays the CONMEBOL team last gets an easier game because the CONMEBOL team was already through, as an example.

I think the last year and a bit has made it more evident to me that games in front of fans is massively important. I'd rather the unfairness of how it is now than to have a fairer neutral site tourney.

Edited by Kent
that -> when
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1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I've said this before but the most fair way to do the Intercontinental playoff is to have all 4 teams play a neutral site round robin.  It will be in June so there is time for 3 matches.  Far more fair than a random draw.

This is how it's done for qualification to the Rugby World Cup, with a 4 team round robin at a neutral site for a single spot. 

For those non rugby fans, the 2019 World Cup repechage tournament for the final spot was won by .... Canada.

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6 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I enjoy the fact that a lot of Anglo media call it "the ocho" and Spanish speaking media are calling it "el octagonal"

I was waiting for someone to bring this up (too many names). I will from now on call it the "Otto" (8 in Italian). Waiting for all my paesano's to agree. Everyone else is welcome.

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