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The Road to Qatar.


Binky
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Good on Panama for going for it with 7 friendlies scheduled, wonder if they hired the Fifa point experts, like a few other countries have. 

Panama directly qualifying last time via top 3 in the Hex ( I had them as #5 in hex before it started), so they clearly see the value and variance of the hex path. 

I think this hex's 4th place team will probably be USA, Costa Rica or Honduras.  I put Mexico a lock and then wide open. I think one of the "underdog countries" will direct qualify via top 3.

Hoping for a good showing vs USA in Nations League, if it goes well, I hope we start playing tons of friendlies.

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We will have to play a ton of friendlies if John Herdman and the CSA are serious about trying to make the HEX, which so far does not seem to be the case. Looking at how the CONCACAF top-ten countries fared in the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings from the June 14th rankings to the July 25th rankings, which included the Gold Cup tournament, the results are as follows:

+47 points - Mexico

+53 points - United States

-08 points - Costa Rica

+28 points - Jamaica

-00 points - Honduras

-00 points El Salvador

+09 points Panama

-02 points Canada

+07 points Curacao

+69 points Haiti (thanks to Herdman)

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If Canada fails to qualify for the HEX, we better be ranked no worse than 7th or 8th come June 2020, or else our path in the lower-seeded round will force us to play against the 7th or 8th ranked CONCACAF country in the semi-finals of the knockout stage, as opposed to at worst the 9th or 10th ranked CONCACAF country in the semi-finals of the knockout stage. Currently Canada holds down the 8th spot, but Curacao is in 9th place only 3 points behind us. If Curacao happens to beat Panama in their scheduled friendly on October 10th, and we don't play any friendlies, then Panama stands a good chance of not making the HEX, and Curacao will surely pass us in the rankings. Either outcome in the Panama vs Curacao friendly will make the Road to Qatar that much more difficult for Canada, if Herdman chooses to stay inactive.

Lower-seeded round[edit]

The 29 teams ranked from 7 to 35 in the FIFA rankings of June 2020 will enter into the lower-seeded round, featuring a group stage followed by a knockout stage.

Group stage[edit]

The participants of the lower-seeded round will be split into eight groups. Five groups (A to E) will feature four teams, while three groups (F to H) will feature three teams. Matches will take place in September, October and November 2020, with the eight group winners advancing to the knockout stage.

Group A[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
4 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group B[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
4 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group C[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
4 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group D[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
4 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group E[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
4 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group F[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group G[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Group H[edit]

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification   TBD TBD TBD
1 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Advance to knockout stage   TBD '20 TBD '20
2 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     TBD '20 TBD '20
3 TBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   TBD '20 TBD '20
First match(es) will be played on September 2020. Source: CONCACAF
Rules for classification: Tiebreakers

Knockout stage[edit]

The eight group winners will advance to the knockout stage, featuring the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final. Teams will face each other over two legs, with the winner of the knockout stage advancing to the play-off round.

Bracket[edit]

  Quarter-finals   Semi-finals   Final
                                   
  Group winner        
  Group winner        
    Quarter-final winner        
   
    Quarter-final winner        
  Group winner      
 
  Group winner        
      Semi-final winner      
   
    Semi-final winner      
  Group winner        
 
  Group winner        
    Quarter-final winner      
   
    Quarter-final winner        
  Group winner      
 
  Group winner        

Quarter-finals[edit]

Team 1 Agg. Team 2 1st leg 2nd leg
Group winner QF1 Group winner Mar '21 Mar '21
Group winner QF2 Group winner Mar '21 Mar '21
Group winner QF3 Group winner Mar '21 Mar '21
Group winner QF4 Group winner Mar '21 Mar '21

Semi-finals[edit]

Team 1 Agg. Team 2 1st leg 2nd leg
Quarter-final winner SF1 Quarter-final winner Jun '21 Jun '21
Quarter-final winner SF2 Quarter-final winner Jun '21 Jun '21

Final[edit]

Team 1 Agg. Team 2 1st leg 2nd leg
Semi-final winner F Semi-final winner Sep '21 Sep '21
Edited by Binky
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What's this @Binky sh_t? There is no  @Binky. Just Binky! I not on the twitter, and I don't do Facebook, and I also don't own a smart phone, or post on one, or watch streamed soccer games on one. I'm just an old fashioned big-screen commercial broadcast kinda guy. As to when it comes to copying and pasting no-discernible-value stuff, I find that there is a whole bunch of worse no-discernible-value stuff that gets posted on this board than the statistical material that I post. So my answer to you is, respectfully, NO!

Might I respectfully suggest you invest in a MacBook Air, or a MacBook Pro, and that way you will not experience the frustrations one has to put up with when depending so heavily on a smartphone!

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8 minutes ago, Binky said:

What's this @Binky sh_t? There is no  @Binky. Just Binky! I not on the twitter, and I don't do Facebook, and I also don't own a smart phone, or post on one, or watch streamed soccer games on one. I'm just an old fashioned big-screen commercial broadcast kinda guy. As to when it comes to copying and pasting no-discernible-value stuff, I find that there is a whole bunch of worse no-discernible-value stuff that gets posted on this board than the statistical material that I post. So my answer to you is, respectfully, NO!

Might I respectfully suggest you invest in a MacBook Air, or a MacBook Pro, and that way you will not experience the frustrations one has to put up with when depending so heavily on a smartphone!

 

tumblr_oa4y31KiHP1teygvgo4_250.gif

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6 minutes ago, Binky said:

What's this @Binky sh_t? There is no  @Binky. Just Binky! I not on the twitter, and I don't do Facebook, and I also don't own a smart phone, or post on one, or watch streamed soccer games on one. I'm just an old fashioned big-screen commercial broadcast kinda guy. As to when it comes to copying and pasting no-discernible-value stuff, I find that there is a whole bunch of worse no-discernible-value stuff that gets posted on this board than the statistical material that I post. So my answer to you is, respectfully, NO!

Might I respectfully suggest you invest in a MacBook Air, or a MacBook Pro, and that way you will not experience the frustrations one has to put up with when depending so heavily on a smartphone!

I'm not going to be reading this website on a MacBook Air on a subway. I like stats more than most normal human beings, but a bunch of 0's to represent games that haven't been played yet hardly constitute stats. And for the record, I saw your post and responded to it on a laptop. Posting a link, and maybe a short description of why you are posting a link, or even copying a short excerpt from it are sufficient.

As for the @, I'm not on twitter either. It just gives you a notification so I figure it makes it more likely you'll see it.

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On 8/9/2019 at 7:34 PM, nolando said:

 

tumblr_oa4y31KiHP1teygvgo4_250.gif

Yes, that's exactly what it's like living in a country, whose national soccer association and national team coach do not want the national men's soccer team to be a top-6 CONCACAF country.

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On 8/9/2019 at 10:23 PM, Binky said:

What's this @Binky sh_t? There is no  @Binky. Just Binky! I not on the twitter, and I don't do Facebook, and I also don't own a smart phone, or post on one, or watch streamed soccer games on one. I'm just an old fashioned big-screen commercial broadcast kinda guy. As to when it comes to copying and pasting no-discernible-value stuff, I find that there is a whole bunch of worse no-discernible-value stuff that gets posted on this board than the statistical material that I post. So my answer to you is, respectfully, NO!

Might I respectfully suggest you invest in a MacBook Air, or a MacBook Pro, and that way you will not experience the frustrations one has to put up with when depending so heavily on a smartphone!

Sorry to tell you old man but this site is social media and you are a trendy hipster no matter how much you dislike it.

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Has it been confirmed that they will even rank the teams 1-8 in the non-hex side? Everywhere I have read says it will be a draw, maybe I missed it?

I'm hoping they seed it into 2 pots 1-4 & 5-8 or set up the entire tournament ranking format #1-#8. From what I'm understanding though is there will be draws after every round of the 8 team tournament? 

With CONCACAF who knows what they decided, but there could potentially be some very sweaty 1st round matchups for some countries, if the draw is not seeded.

 

 

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It looks like Honduras has their September friendlies confirmed since they don't start Nations League until October. Elo lists them as playing 2 home matches, September 5th against Puerto Rico and September 10th against Chile.

If our Nations League match against Cuba is only expected to earn us around 3 FIFA points, Honduras will earn even less than that since their match is only a friendly. If their match against Chile goes how you'd think it would, hopefully they lose more points than they gain and they finish the September window lower than 1350 points.

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  • 2 weeks later...

If I was someone at Canada Soccer looking at friendly results within CONCACAF and comparing them to the current FIFA rankings so that I could try and maximize our points to get us closer to the top 6, I would be thinking that the group of 3 countries right underneath Curacao and Haiti (Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis) would be ideal opponents if you don't want to set up a friendly with a country you're also competing with for a top 6 spot. Those 3 countries are just 3, 4, and 5 spots below us in the FIFA rankings so they would be the next best thing.

We defeated Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 in the closed door friendly and Saint Kitts and Nevis 1-0 in Nations League Qualifying. Saint Kitts and Nevis just hosted Antigua and Barbuda for 2 matches the last 3 days and defeated them 3-0 and 4-3. They would be ideal opponents, if possible, at some point before June 2020 and would earn us more points than minnows, who we shouldn't be considering anyway.

Those 3 countries aren't available for the October or November window unfortunately where we need to have a 2nd match scheduled. Saint Kitts and Nevis and Antigua and Barbuda both have 2 Nations League matches in October and November. Trinidad and Tobago was available for a 2nd match in October until Mexico snapped them up for an early October friendly. Panama and Curacao (currently ranked 7th and 9th in CONCACAF) each only had 1 October match (Nations League), but they have created a 2nd match for themselves by playing a friendly against each other on October 10. The clock is ticking to get a 2nd October match set up, and within our own region, the number of good, comparable teams available are diminishing.

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17 minutes ago, Club Linesman said:

Don't hold your breathe.  We need to win out (or close to it) in Nations League to have a hope in hell of making the top 6.

This especially with Jamaica in group B playing lesser opponents. The reggae boys drew a nice card with them not getting into League A of CNL. 

They'll most likely stay in the top 6.

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I have a legit question.. what's in it for the US as far as Nations League goes. If we beat them twice is it possible they drop out of the top 6?

I ask because I think they genuinely dont look very good and they could get caught between 2 minds. They kinda need Bradley and Altidore but it's also kinda pointless to play them at the moment because they'll be past it come Qatar

Edited by SpursFlu
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43 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I have a legit question.. what's in it for the US as far as Nations League goes. If we beat them twice is it possible they drop out of the top 6?

I ask because I think they genuinely dont look very good and they could get caught between 2 minds. They kinda need Bradley and Altidore but it's also kinda pointless to play them at the moment because they'll be past it come Qatar

I dont think they could even fall that far.

They are ranked 22 and Costa Rica are 43 I think and Jamaica are 57 or something. Even if they lose all their games I don't think they can slip that far.

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8 hours ago, Shway said:

This especially with Jamaica in group B playing lesser opponents. The reggae boys drew a nice card with them not getting into League A of CNL. 

They'll most likely stay in the top 6.

Again showing how asinine these League A's and B's are given they mean jack shit now. 

Edited by grigorio
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22 minutes ago, PopePouri said:

We still should have been playing friendlies to develop as a cohesive unit and bring in different sets of players to test out their full abilities. 

This still isn't an excuse for one friendly in 18 months.

If the CSA's logic was "we're already guarantted the hex so we don't need to play any friendlies" then that was flat out wrong. Friendlies should have been played regardless. 

Edited by king1010
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5 minutes ago, king1010 said:

We still should have been playing friendlies to develop as a cohesive unit and bring in different sets of players to test out their full abilities. 

This still isn't an excuse for one friendly in 18 months.

If the CSA's logic was "we're already guarantted the hex so we don't need to play any friendlies" then that was flat out wrong. Friendlies should have been played regardless. 

And U-23 camps, and a camp poutine whether we had a game or not.  

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“We were originally notified that it was a CONCACAF-rankings table and we were tracking everything and building all our planning on the CONCACAF rankings, and that’s what had originally been presented when the Nations League was formally presented to the member associations,” Herdman said in a conference call with a select group of media outlets Wednesday announcing the squad selection for the game against Cuba. “That changed in July 2019. So we woke up one morning and the rankings table isn’t there anymore, it’s gone. We changed gears, that’s in the past and the future is the future now. We’re focused now on what we can control and what we have to do now to put ourselves in the best position to qualify for the HEX (top-six).”

I'm glad the boss still wants us to make the top 6 and make the Hex, at least try. Herdman still executed to be in the top 6 in CONCACAF rankings and originally make the hex. These 2 matches vs Cuba would have gotten us tons of CONCACAF points & 1 result vs USA and we probably in. What an annoyance, additional annoyance is we played FG & Martinique basically earning 0 Fifa points.

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4 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

“We were originally notified that it was a CONCACAF-rankings table and we were tracking everything and building all our planning on the CONCACAF rankings, and that’s what had originally been presented when the Nations League was formally presented to the member associations,” Herdman said in a conference call with a select group of media outlets Wednesday announcing the squad selection for the game against Cuba. “That changed in July 2019. So we woke up one morning and the rankings table isn’t there anymore, it’s gone. We changed gears, that’s in the past and the future is the future now. We’re focused now on what we can control and what we have to do now to put ourselves in the best position to qualify for the HEX (top-six).”

I'm glad the boss still wants us to make the top 6 and make the Hex, at least try. Herdman still executed to be in the top 6 in CONCACAF rankings and originally make the hex. These 2 matches vs Cuba would have gotten us tons of CONCACAF points & 1 result vs USA and we probably in. What an annoyance, additional annoyance is we played FG & Martinique basically earning 0 Fifa points.

If FIFA Rankings are the only  acceptable way to seed teams for WCQ then CONCACAF really needs to somehow address allowing non FIFA members into Gold Cup and Nations League. There just isn't a level playing field if teams are playing one maybe two games a tournament against non FIFA opponents. 

Edited by king1010
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