The Road to Qatar.

[Yoginess]

28 minutes ago, Ruud said:

US at home in January?  Bc place or Big O?

I’d say BC Place in January. Save the Montreal games for Saputo 

[SkuseisLoose]

BC Place for November and January Hopefully. CSA would probably love another packed 50k plus crowd vs Mexico. Could see similar numbers vs the USA as well.

[jtpc]

CONCACAF has tweeted out confirmed September, October, January, and March Octagonal dates:

September 2, 5, 8
October 7, 10, 13
November TBA
January 27, 30, February 2
March 24, 27, 30

September 2 Home vs. Honduras
September 5 Away at USA
September 8 Home vs. El Salvador

October 7 Away at Mexico
October 10 Away at Jamaica
October 13 Home vs. Panama

January 27 Away at Honduras
January 30 Home vs. USA
February 2 Away at El Salvador

March 24 Away at Costa Rica
March 27 Home vs. Jamaica
March 30 Away at Panama

 

[JohnnyFranchise]

34 minutes ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

The disadvantage of playing away in heat is much more than the reverse of other teams playing in the cold. Heat is harder to play through. I think playing away in Jan is an advantage on balance. But not flying back and forth over long distances.

💯

people also aren't thinking about the possibility that maybe OUR guys don't want to play in the freezing cold either. i'll be surprised if november and january games aren't in bc place.

[SpursFlu]

I'm thinking September in Vancouver/Edmonton - October in Toronto/Montreal 

I personally would not want to see games played in November or March outdoors but im sure they will. I could see those windows rotating between MTL and Toronto 

January v USA BC Place. Looking at the schedule im thinking that will be the crucial game.  Considering how rarely the US plays in Seattle that game will be sold out like that

 

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by SpursFlu

[Watchmen]

2 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

BC Place for November and January Hopefully. CSA would probably love another packed 50k plus crowd vs Mexico. Could see similar numbers vs the USA as well.

I would not anticipate BC allowing 50k crowds in November. The province/BC Lions/Whitecaps have been discussing crowds of 4500 for Aug/Sept, so while I'm sure that the number allowed will be higher by November (and may even exceed their original discussions for Aug/Sep) I would not think it would be up to 50k by then.

[xabuep2]

I hope the government of Canada will allow  the home game against Honduras in September. This game is vital and the catrachos should not be given any advantage. Please keep updated on any news in this regard. By the way, congratulations! welcome to the ocho! well deserved Canada 💪

[Blackjack15]

 

I say 4th is realistic

[Ruud]

Who plays the first of 3 October games will be fascinating.  Mex away then Jamaica and Pan.  
 

Man management will be crazy

[Kent]

6 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

January v USA BC Place. Looking at the schedule im thinking that will be the crucial game.  Considering how rarely the US plays in Seattle that game will be sold out like that

If you are suggesting having the game there to be able to sell a lot of tickets to Americans, that for me isn't a good argument. We want home field advantage. That being said, the game probably pretty much has to be in BC Place in January.

But I do hope the games are spread out, not just all in Toronto. These 14 games are the marketing opportunity this team (and OneSoccer) needs to get the country behind this team. We really need Canada to get out to a fast start to capitalize on this. If we lose our first 3 games or something like that then the momentum will be stopped in its tracks.

[TGAA_Star]

4 hours ago, Blackjack15 said:

 

I say 4th is realistic

I say 4th place Inter continental playoffs is the most realistic target for 🇨🇦

[narduch]

Well played TFC

 

[CanMNT Memes]

[Juan]

10 hours ago, nolbertos said:

"Now I can’t wait to see if the boys become men, or fall into Honduras and El Salvador antics and lose there cool.  If we don’t make a Top 5 finish, time to move on from Herdman."

I would say if we don't make it to the WC, it's time to move on from Herdman. Top5 isn't good enough 

[dyslexic nam]

The hot takes just keep coming.  

[mrstepp817]

Saw this on twitter....how many points will it take to crack the top four?? Twenty minimum? Top 3 are we thinking 25 points? Charting the path to those points is the interesting part

[Treppy2]

Just for fun, here are the total number of wins, by each country in the Octo, in all six editions of the Hex (from '98 to '18):

United States: 32
Mexico: 30
Costa Rica: 29
Honduras: 16
Jamaica: 5
El Salvador: 4
Panama: 4
Canada: 1

[SpursFlu]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

If you are suggesting having the game there to be able to sell a lot of tickets to Americans, that for me isn't a good argument. We want home field advantage. That being said, the game probably pretty much has to be in BC Place in January.

But I do hope the games are spread out, not just all in Toronto. These 14 games are the marketing opportunity this team (and OneSoccer) needs to get the country behind this team. We really need Canada to get out to a fast start to capitalize on this. If we lose our first 3 games or something like that then the momentum will be stopped in its tracks.

I'm not suggesting that at all. Im just saying it will sell out fast and it will be a great atmosphere. It would sell out without Americans but with that factor it will be an extremely hot ticket.

KJ suggested 18pts minimum 

El Salvador 6pts

Panama 3pts

Costa Rica 3pt

Honduras 3pts

Jamaica 3pt

There's a simple way of getting to 18pts. Then you have 8 games to find 2 or 3 ties. Very doable

Edited June 16, 2021 by SpursFlu

[sebdeserio]

IMO 14 points or 4 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses at home is entirely realistic. Then if we could manage 1 or 2 wins and 2 or 3 ties away, which also seems doable, I think we're in.

[Kent]

1 hour ago, mrstepp817 said:

Saw this on twitter....how many points will it take to crack the top four?? Twenty minimum? Top 3 are we thinking 25 points? Charting the path to those points is the interesting part

Here are the points per game for the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the Hex the last 4 cycles.

2018 - 1.3, 1.3
2014 - 1.5, 1.1
2010 - 1.6, 1.6
2006 - 1.6, 1.3

1.6 ppg translates to 22.4 points. 1.3 translates to 18.2. The points per game needed might even be a bit higher than it has been historically, since there are 2 more teams in it, so the field is theoretically diluted.

How do we get to 23 points? Wins at home against all the non-big-2 teams gives us 15 points. That would leave us needing 8 more points from 7 away games + 2 home games against USA/Mexico. So 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses from those games. It's going to be a tough road! Can't wait!

[dyslexic nam]

[JohnnyFranchise]

38 minutes ago, sebdeserio said:

IMO 14 points or 4 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses at home is entirely realistic. Then if we could manage 1 or 2 wins and 2 or 3 ties away, which also seems doable, I think we're in.

honestly, i think we need at least 6 wins at home. ambitious i know, but trying to rely on road wins in concacaf is a tough go.

[youllneverwalkalone]

I don't know, 23 points seems more doable than what I thought it would take.

[JohnnyFranchise]

i live in vancouver and i don't want that USA game anywhere near here. it's too vital a game to want a "cool atmosphere" if that means having 15,000 american fans there.

unfortunately, i'm pretty sure it will be here, so 🤷‍♂️

maybe we can set up ticketmaster to require a postal code, no zip codes allowed! 😅

[El Hombre]

52 minutes ago, Kent said:

Here are the points per game for the 3rd and 4th place finishers in the Hex the last 4 cycles.

2018 - 1.3, 1.3
2014 - 1.5, 1.1
2010 - 1.6, 1.6
2006 - 1.6, 1.3

1.6 ppg translates to 22.4 points. 1.3 translates to 18.2. The points per game needed might even be a bit higher than it has been historically, since there are 2 more teams in it, so the field is theoretically diluted.

How do we get to 23 points? Wins at home against all the non-big-2 teams gives us 15 points. That would leave us needing 8 more points from 7 away games + 2 home games against USA/Mexico. So 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses from those games. It's going to be a tough road! Can't wait!

Yeah, KJ said specifically that it would take between 18 and 23 points which perfectly fits with what you have above.  Not as daunting as I thought.  Maybe Panama and Costa Rica will already be out by the time we play them away in March.

Also, if we thoroughly embarrass Honduras in Tegucigalpa, FIFA might give us four points for the win...