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The Road to Qatar.


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1 minute ago, SpursFlu said:

Not qualifying should be viewed as a failure 

Losing in the cross over would be understandable but I think top4 in the Octa should be the expectation. Top 6 meh not good. Less than that, big fail

Playoff if we go up against a South American team then losing would be understandable but if in the IC playoff we face either an Oceania team or an Asian team, then I really like Canada's chances to qualify

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4 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Playoff if we go up against a South American team then losing would be understandable but if in the IC playoff we face either an Oceania team or an Asian team, then I really like Canada's chances to qualify

Yah its a big variable. And its 1 game vs a good team, so who knows

Here is my scorecard

Top 4 = Thumbs up

5 - 6 = Thumb sideways 

Below 6 = Thumbs down

No Octagon = Epic failure 

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11 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah its a big variable. And its 1 game vs a good team, so who knows

Here is my scorecard

Top 4 = Thumbs up

5 - 6 = Thumb sideways 

Below 6 = Thumbs down

No Octagon = Epic failure 

I agree with that. If we finished below 6, it would basically be how our last few qualification campaigns went.

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If we get the half spot and ultimately lose to a team that's better than us, I will be disappointed but proud of the effort of our team. However, if we lose to a team in the intercontinental with less pedigree than us, not only will I be disappointed, but I would put our effort in the failure category. It really depends on who we play and what the situation is.

Generally speaking though, I agree with Spurs Flu. Anything less than top for of the Octagon will be a failure for me, considering the players we currently have. 

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27 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

I really don't like the idea of treating this as prep for 2026, which is something I've heard. It's a guaranteed spot (probably) but a 4 year wait is a 4 year wait. I'm trying to be very realistic about our chances in general, but I think 4th in the Oct is something we have to drive at instead of treating like a cherry on top.

Don’t get me wrong.  My pre-game motivational speech wouldn’t be about just getting to the Octo.  I am just trying to be pragmatic.  

We have a long history of underperforming, and we haven’t made it to the final qualification stage in our region in decades.   Yes, we have upgraded the quality of our squad, but many of those talented players are young and we are chewing our collective nails nervously about the idea of taking on Haiti and Suriname.  4th in CONCACAF is possible but I would put our odds well under 50%.   That is why I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations.  

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4th in the Octagonal we would realistically have to compete with the likes of Jamaica, Panama, Honduras for that spot

Because top 3 will end up most likely being USA, Mexico and Costa Rica even though Costa Rica is an aging squad to say the least

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

4th in the Octagonal we would realistically have to compete with the likes of Jamaica, Panama, Honduras for that spot

Because top 3 will end up most likely being USA, Mexico and Costa Rica even though Costa Rica is an aging squad to say the least

I’d argue Costa Rica has fallen into our tier and Panama has fallen out of it.

This is solely on paper though...and we all know how predictions on Canada made my paper have gone in the past. They have experience, something we don’t have

Edited by ADP10
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2 minutes ago, ADP10 said:

I’d argue Costa Rica has fallen into our tier and Panama has fallen out of it.

This is solely on paper though...and we all know how predictions on Canada made my paper have gone in the past. They have experience, something we don’t have

Exactly we don't but currently as far as a footballing Renaissance goes, we Canada are currently in one right now as far as our men's program. We continue to evolve and our talent just gets deeper as we head into 2022 and 2026. So let's just say I ultimately like us getting to the Octo.

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2 minutes ago, ADP10 said:

I’d argue Costa Rica has fallen into our tier and Panama has fallen out of it.

This is solely on paper though...and we all know how predictions on Canada made my paper have gone in the past. They have experience, something we don’t have

Exactly. Costa Rica on paper is looking almost like Panama did last cycle - the same players you're used to but aging. I think the same can be said about Honduras too. 

But as we see time and time again these teams can put it together when it counts. 

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12 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Don’t get me wrong.  My pre-game motivational speech wouldn’t be about just getting to the Octo.  I am just trying to be pragmatic.  

We have a long history of underperforming, and we haven’t made it to the final qualification stage in our region in decades.   Yes, we have upgraded the quality of our squad, but many of those talented players are young and we are chewing our collective nails nervously about the idea of taking on Haiti and Suriname.  4th in CONCACAF is possible but I would put our odds well under 50%.   That is why I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations.  

I can appreciate you are trying to manage your expectations, but I think well under 50% for top 4 is way too pessimistic.

Even if you were to put the odds of top 4 exactly at 50%, I would still consider that slightly pessimistic. 

We shouldn't just forget our history of failure when factoring in our chances, of course, but how do we weight that against the fact this is a different, more talented group, with players that are at least used to winning things at the club level?

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9 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Costa Rica is certainly not top tier anymore. I’m not sure I would favor them over a full Jamaica or Canada said at all. The #3 spot will be relatively up for grabs. 

I agree that Costa Rica, Jamaica and Canada (should we get there) all must be considered viable 3rd place candidates, but we shouldn't sleep on Honduras. They are the least sexy team on paper, but they've had great success at the youth levels, and they are in the Nations League A semifinals. They should be firmly in contention for that 3rd spot as well. 

I see 3 tiers here:

1. MEXICO/USA

2. COSTA RICA/JAMAICA/CANADA/HONDURAS

3. CURACAO(PANAMA)/EL SALVADOR

I think we'll see the top 2 teams pull away from the pack, at least Mexico for sure (I still think the Americans have a little slip-up in them), but that middle group is probably going to be fighting right down to the final match day. The bottom two teams are ultimately not going to be in contention on the final matchday, although I could see Curacao/Panama hanging around for a while leading up to that.

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Posted (edited)

Top 4 teams on paper(no particular order) are Mexico, US, Canada, Jamaica 

But as we know.. games are not played on paper

I also basically agree with the above way of looking at it. Top 2 then a group of 4

Edited by SpursFlu
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Just to keep everyone updated on round 1, here are the current group leaders

A - Antigua & Barbuda 

B - Canada

C - Curacao

D - Dominican Republic

E - Nicaragua

F - St. Kitts

Also interesting that Canada has the best goal difference (+15) of all teams, followed by Suriname (+9)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_First_Round

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2 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Just to keep everyone updated on round 1, here are the current group leaders

A - Antigua & Barbuda 

B - Canada

C - Curacao

D - Dominican Republic

E - Nicaragua

F - St. Kitts

Also interesting that Canada has the best goal difference (+15) of all teams, followed by Suriname (+9)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_First_Round

Ya but who is second in both groups and how close is it. ALL these groups still have it all to play for... most importantly for us group E(with HAITI!!! and even Belize I think are technically still in)

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Tyson M said:

Ya but who is second in both groups and how close is it. ALL these groups still have it all to play for... most importantly for us group E(with HAITI!!! and even Belize I think are technically still in)

El Salvador is level on points with Antigua, but trail on goal difference. They play each other on the final matchday. 

We know the situation with Suriname and Canada, so no need to rehash.

Guatemala is level with Curacao, but trail on goal difference. They also play each other on the final matchday.

Panama-Dominican republic same situation.

Haiti is actually in 3rd, but level on points with Belize (2nd) and Nicaragua (1st). However, they play Turks and Caicos who are already eliminated with a -11 GD, and Belize/Nicaragua do not.

So the good news for Haiti is that they have the chance to make up the goal difference. Belize and Nicaragua play each other as well, so points will be lost, which could help Haiti depending on how the results go. Haiti play Nicaragua on the final match day, and it will probably come down to one of those teams, since Belize has played an extra game. 

Haiti really needs to crush the Turks and Caicos, because if they don't and Nicaragua beat Belize, they could be in trouble.

Right now, Haiti is trailing Nicaragua by a goal difference of 5, and that'll at least be 6 if they beat Belize. However, Haiti could very realistically overturn a 6 goal difference, considering Nicaragua beat the Turks and Caicos by 7 goals. 

To make it simple though, Haiti basically has to beat Nicaragua and they are good, regardless of what the central Americans do against Belize.

Edited by Obinna
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Group E sounds more interesting than group B(ours) to me. I think we have excellent odds, what's interesting is we have all but thought a trip to Haiti is coming, but the other alternative Nicaragua is seeming very possible. I would rather play Haiti(although that last game still haunts me). Not sure we should be playing there though, with the security issues.

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2 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

So are we all just hanging out shooting the breeze cuz we expect the team to be announced any moment?

pretty much. 

Confirmed list(more or less):

NONE

usually isn't there more rumours and things slipping from family members social media accounts? Where are the Voyeurs of the Voyageurs???

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1 minute ago, Tyson M said:

Group E sounds more interesting than group B(ours) to me. I think we have excellent odds, what's interesting is we have all but thought a trip to Haiti is coming, but the other alternative Nicaragua is seeming very possible. I would rather play Haiti(although that last game still haunts me). Not sure we should be playing there though, with the security issues.

Yeah for sure. 

By the way, group F is pretty interesting as well. St. Kitts actually leads T&T by 2 points, with those teams playing each other on the final match day, so T&T could be in trouble. 

The twist is that Granada, who are closely in 3rd, can not only do them a favor by beating St. Kitts, but could put themselves in contention with a win. That would put them level on points with T&T (who will beat lowly Bahamas), meaning that St. Kitts may actually be the ones finding themselves playing the role of party spoilers, while Granada would have to take care of Puerto Rico, who are a long shot.

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13 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

So are we all just hanging out shooting the breeze cuz we expect the team to be announced any moment?

Are we expecting it today? Or is this kind of a “sometime this week thing”. Which knowing CSA means Friday 

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1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah its a big variable. And its 1 game vs a good team, so who knows

Here is my scorecard

Top 4 = Thumbs up

5 - 6 = Thumb sideways 

Below 6 = Thumbs down

No Octagon = Epic failure 

If we make the Oct, I’ll be pretty disappointed if we don’t come top 4. Over 14 matches, the best teams really should separate themselves, and I think we have a top 4 team in CONCACAF. There are no excuses in a group stage that large, because you can’t blame failure on one lucky bounce or the ref screwing you over. 

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Posted (edited)

Bummer, I was thinking the team would come out this morning but I forgot its the CSA we're talking about. We just have to rely on our social media super sluths as per usual 

Here's my 24

Cavallini, Larin, David, Davies, Hoilett, Corbeanu, Millar

Arfield, Atiba, Eustaquio, Osorio, Piette, MAK 

Gutierrez, Adekugbe, Vitoria, Henry, Ferreira, Cornelius, Laryea, ZBG

Borjan, Crepeau, Pantemis

Would like to include Wotherspoon but would have to drop a forward

Edited by SpursFlu
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