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The Road to Qatar.

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1 hour ago, narduch said:

I wonder what the Venn diagram is for people who are ok with this format and people who support keeping Herdman in charge. 

Why don't you run a poll.  I would think it's no more than 25%...like the percentage who want Herdman gone now.

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6 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Why don't you run a poll.  I would think it's no more than 25%...like the percentage who want Herdman gone now.

That sounds complicated

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2 hours ago, king1010 said:

ppl are more than willing to accept something new. 

but not something that has 85% of teams vying for 0.5 of a place. 

not something having ranking points from 3 years ago retroactively deciding if you are in or out of the hex

not having a scenario where teams like Canada have played 3 official matches in the past 2 years against non fifa teams therefore unable to gain FIFA points versus some teams that are in the hex. 

Like if you're going to use the top 6 teams automatically in the HEX, use the damn Concacaf rankings index which actually take into consideration games against non FIFA opponents. 

In what world is the US Virgin Islands finishing top 3 in the HEX? Your 85% vying for a .5 spot is laughable

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5 hours ago, Alex said:

Or how about we go back to the semi final round and play Mexico, Trinidad and panama like in 2000. And lose.

or we go there and play Guatemala, Costa Rica and Honduras and lose again. Like in 2004.

what about playing jamaica, Mexico and Honduras like in 2008. Ahh we lost again! 

Maybe we would have better luck in 2012. Cuba, Panama and Honduras. Nope we lost.

2016 was our year right? Mexico, El Salvador and Honduras, I mean we beat them at home! Nope still lost.

My point is we lost every semi final round since qualifying for the 98 hex. Sure we might go all the way and lose to Brazil. I’d take that over the last 5 nightmarish early exits I had to witness. 

Based on these facts, it makes me feel like we will smash 3 minnows and lose the first home and home quarter final round or semi final round :(.

I'm usually optimistic, but home and home matchups have a higher variance then more people think. Just look at UEFA CL, often times better team gets upset.  I would not like our chances of having to 4 home and home's just to get the .5 spot 

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Posted (edited)

With the current top 6 rankings, the only clear team I really see auto qualifying is Mexico. 

I definitely do not think it will be Mexico, USA, Costa rica 1-2-3.

I think all the other 5 hex teams would be fairly optimistic and like there chances of being top 4. Go for top 3 but still not out of it if you end up 4th.

I also think there are going to be tons of ties in the hex side of the bracket, which will open it up for the teams #2-#6. Mainly because the teams this year.

I actually don't mind the format per say but I think spots #4-#12 to get into the hex should have been done differently. That to me is what is irritating and extremely unfair.

Oh well.... Spinning in circles at this point. Giddy up for Nations League.

Edited by apbsmith

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2 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Dino Rossi indicating the CSA knew about this for a while.  

image.png.985f36b6754d80cd6e7094a8ee05e4fa.png 

I don’t see how we could possibly justify not arranging friendlies if this was true.  We obviously need FIFA points in this format so forgoing the chance to accumulate points would be suicide (barring the uber-conspiracy that we are aiming to be 7th and qualify that way)

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The obvious : in a tournament (eg World Cup and World Cup qualifying) you play head-to-head games between teams to determine who is better. Ideally, everybody plays everybody and there is no argument whatsoever. eg. CONEMBOL. Most of the time this is impractical. So you do your best to design the tournament so that using seedings based on rankings/past performance is used as little as possible and so that each team has the same path to victory as much as possible. This format violates these principles more than any other tournament I can think of. Although this year's Canadian Championship comes to mind!

I've liked what Vic Montagliani has done at CONCACAF up til now. But this seems so bush. I can see that he probably has the laudable goal of trying to give the lesser CONCACAF nations more meaningful games and I suppose that it does. But at the cost of being so unfair? It's a travesty.

It's interesting to note a phenomenon that occurs in the chess world. Chess players' ratings are an important part of what tournaments they will get invited to (bigger or smaller prize money) including the Candidates tournament which determines who will challenge the current World Champion. The top 8-10 rated players in the world tend to play a majority of their games against each other and few games against lower-rated players. This tends to keep their ratings higher and at the same time makes it hard for lower rated players to improve their rating. Now we're gonna have the same rating BS in soccer. Not to mention how poor the rating system is to begin with.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

In what world is the US Virgin Islands finishing top 3 in the HEX? Your 85% vying for a .5 spot is laughable

You’re right. Its 85% vying for for .25 of a spot because the winner of the 35 actually have to playoff against hex 4th before playing intercontinental. It is absolutely laughable.  

With regards to USVI i have no idea what you’re talking about 

Edited by king1010

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9 minutes ago, king1010 said:

You’re right. Its 85% vying for for .25 of a spot because the winner of the 35 actually have to playoff against hex 4th before playing intercontinental. It is absolutely laughable.  

With regards to USVI i have no idea what you’re talking about 

Well if you don't know what I'm talking about I guess it's s pointless conversation. 

 

I'm excited for qualifying to start in September. Home and away v the USA.. what a way to kick it off. Should be great

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1 minute ago, CanSuffer said:

The obvious : in a tournament (eg World Cup and World Cup qualifying) you play head-to-head games between teams to determine who is better. Ideally, everybody plays everybody and there is no argument whatsoever. eg. CONEMBOL. Most of the time this is impractical.

 

But it's NOT.  Everybody says this when it's not true.  There's 26 matchdays between now and November 2021 and most of them are being wasted on the stupid Nations League or being left unused altogether for no f###ing reason.  You could double the size of the hex and still have 4 matchdays to spare.  

If the minnows want more games then give them a marathon Gold Cup qualifying campaign.  

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2 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

But it's NOT.  Everybody says this when it's not true.  There's 26 matchdays between now and November 2021 and most of them are being wasted on the stupid Nations League or being left unused altogether for no f###ing reason.  You could double the size of the hex and still have 4 matchdays to spare.  

If the minnows want more games then give them a marathon Gold Cup qualifying campaign.  

Just to be clear it is impractical to have all 41 teams play each other. But I totally agree you could and should double (at least) the Hex.

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Under the new format introduced by Victor Montagliani there will be no more major upsets in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, considering that the highest ranked nation in the Hex will not be facing any country ranked weaker than 6th in the confederation. That's more elitist than the UEFA Champions League, where there are still remote possibilities of a team like Ajax upsetting the likes of Juventus and Real Madrid. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Dino Rossi indicating the CSA knew about this for a while.  

image.png.985f36b6754d80cd6e7094a8ee05e4fa.png 

Also a similar response from the Panamanian federation  who are in a much better position than we are to reach #6 but whose fans/media are seemingly putting up way more of a stink than we are (basically we knew about this format in 2017 and were just waiting to rubber stamp it once we knew it would be a 32 team World Cup and not 48 teams.)

https://twitter.com/panamaamerica/status/1149490376606023682?s=21

if it’s true the CSA knew about this and did absolutely nothing to help schedule friendlies to help our rankings dump the entire lot!

 

Edited by TOcanadafan

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4 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

Also a similar response from the Panamanian federation  who are in a much better position than we are to reach #6 but whose fans/media are seemingly putting up way more of a stink than we are (basically we knew about this format in 2017 and were just waiting to rubber stamp it once we knew it would be a 32 team World Cup and not 48 teams.)

https://twitter.com/panamaamerica/status/1149490376606023682?s=21

if it’s true the CSA knew about this and did absolutely nothing to help schedule friendlies to help our rankings dump the entire lot!

 

According to this it was approved at the 2017 CONCACAF Congress.  How the hell did nobody leak this to the press for two whole years???  This is what happens when you have no journalists covering these events.  

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Posted (edited)
On 7/10/2019 at 7:09 PM, apbsmith said:

Thanks for pointing me to that guys twitter, I love the probability # stuff. 

Here is a specific tweet for those interested in the difference between #6 & #7 from him 

 

Screenshot_20190710-200623.png

Working my way through this thread but I have to comment on this. It is a classic case of garbage in, garbage out.

The method is correct but it is only as good as the chosen percentages, which are clearly wrong.

Let's look at those 29 teams from another perspective. One of them will win. If they are all equal, the chances of winning are 100/29 = 3.5%. But they are not all equal. For the great majority of them, the chances of winning are virtually zero. Let us say there are 6 teams that have a non trivial chance. If those 6 teams are all equal, the chances of winning are 100/6 = 16.7%. But they are not all equal. And we would surely be one of the strongest, if not THE strongest. Our chances of coming out on top of the 29 teams are MUCH higher than 2%!!

If you want to work out how much higher, a much more accurate method would be to write down the list of teams that have a non zero chance and assign each a percentage (maybe assume all the others combined have a 1-2% chance). I think most of us would probably have Canada come out at around 25% to 30%, or in that neighbourhood.

To get the final percentage chance of qualifying, it does then make sense to multiply by the chances of beating Hexagonal 4th and multiply that by chances of winning inter continental play-off. 

Edited by Lofty

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Posted (edited)

I would analyze the two paths as follows.

I assume the chance of winning the first playoff game, Hexagonal 4th vs. Winner 29 = 50% (for either team!). And the average chance of winning the inter continental play off, given we don't know which confederation, is 40%. So the chance of qualifying via play offs is 20%.

1. Making the hexagonal:

Chance of coming in top 3: 5%

Chance of coming 4th: 15%

Chance of coming 5th/6th: 80%

Chance of qualifying after coming 4th = 15% × 20% = 3%.

Total chance of qualifying via hexagonal = 5% + 3% = 8%.

2. Not making the hexagonal:

Chance of qualifying = 30% × 20% = 6%.

So yes, based on those assumptions (which could be way off so please feel free to revise with your own) the hexagonal wins, but not by much.

Edited by Lofty

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I’d like to think that we could outclass/outscore teams in the lower bracket and thus our chances would be better.  Playing in the upper tier our defence will be tested more and that’s clearly our weak spot.  I think we have higher odds than 30% but I completely agree with what you’re putting out there formula wise.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, narduch said:

I wonder what the Venn diagram is for people who are ok with this format and people who support keeping Herdman in charge. 

Ah, that is funny!

I also wonder what the Venn diagram looks like for people who have been complaining for ages that we don't play enough matches and are now outraged that we may have to play some!

Edited by Lofty

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Another reason we need to make the HEX:

We are a young team which is lacking the experience of nailing do or die game (example:  Haiti game).  

To grab that 0.5 spot, we need to get through  4 rounds of grinding fights.

It's really a tall order despite the round of intercontinental game. 

The luxury of being a part of HEX is that we could be still alive after a couple of hiccups.

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Posted (edited)

I simply cannot make up my mind about this format. As I said above, I don't think it is bad for Canada and I honestly think our chances are fairly similar either way.

The thing I like is that no matter what, we will be playing competitive matches until late in the game.

One thing that people talking about us being screwed by the lack of friendlies seem to be missing is that you can LOSE points by playing matches! Playing more matches would NOT have guaranteed a better ranking!

Further, after a quick look at what is on wikipedia, the point system looks asymmetric in that it seems as though the losing team can lose more points than the winner gains. Maybe wikipedia is wrong or maybe my cursory analysis is wrong. But if not, this could result in points being continually bled from the system, which would be absolutely hilarious as teams eventually approached zero! (With ELO, points gained and lost in a match were always the same.)

Edited by Lofty

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, An Observer said:

I dont have a problem with them giving the top 6 a chance to play for the top 2 spots but then they have the next 2 In the Hex plus the top 2 in the rest of the qualifying play for the 1.5 spots; or better, they use the nation league to generate the 6 by having the 4 winners plus the second place finishers playoff to generate the next 2.  That is the fairest as that is not wholly relying on dubious rankings and was subject to play in where sides actually had to beat each other in a competition to qualify. 

At the very least , yes, the sides outside of the hex should have been given a chance to win a full spot at the world cup instead of having to play in the intercontinental playoff.  

I dont know if the intercontinental playoff will include Uefa and or Conmebol so the frustrating and unjust aspect, that irritates me, is that a concacaf side outside that top six could end up playing in the intercontinental playoff and face the kind of teams that Mexico would would be an underdog against.  whereas Mexico, because of the format, can qualify be facing easier opponents in its own region.

Edited by Free kick

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Posted (edited)

Can someone tell me what happened with the FIFA/Coca-Cola CONCACAF rankings between June 7, 2018 and August 16, 2018? I was checking how many points the 6th place country in CONCACAF has had over the past year, and the number of points changed quite drastically. Is it possible such a drastic change may happen again between now and next year?

1,342 - June 14, 2019

1,344 - April 4, 2019

1,327 - February 7, 2019

1,327 - December 20, 2018

1,327 - November 29, 2018

1,335 - October 25, 2018

1,339 - September 20, 2018

1,343 - August 16, 2018

0,508 - June 7, 2018

0,530 - May 17, 2018

0,530 - April 12, 2018

Edited by Binky

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