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The Road to Qatar.

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13 hours ago, Floortom said:

I have to agree. I’m surprised at the level of optimism (naïveté) shown by the federations.

I suspect a year as then World Cup qualifying can start next autumn in the same format we have now (or perhaps in the summer of 2021). By next autumn, I think the likelihood of a vaccine is pretty high and I suspect the Olympics will be held in August next year probably with the athletes, support staff and possibly foreign fans (especially family members) having been vaccinated. 

Asia has already binned the autumn qualifying and I just don’t see it happening in South America with or without European players in spite of what the federation is currently saying as cases are spiking again in many countries there.  Europe doesn’t start until March so there is much more flexibility there but they will just be coming out of the winter and I highly suspect the caseload will be very high then with no vaccine readily available. 
 

They could move to mini tournaments possibly next summer as you can’t play those in a 2 match window but that conflicts with regional championships like the Euros and Gold Cup so I don’t see that happening. And summer of 2022 is just too late. Plus I think it starts to undermine the legitimacy of qualifying if you compromise it too much. I think you can get away with what Concacaf is doing in the early rounds as no one really cares about the minnows globally (and I include Canada in that) but having a Brazil or Germany miss out as they lose a single match against a Peru or Ireland in a mini-tournament is just too great a risk. 

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If Trinidad and Tobago has to forfeit any of their WCQ matches and doesn't advance from Group F, imagine the path to the Octagonal for the winner of Group A. If all the top seeds from the first round advance, they were already going to get the lowest-ranked top seed anyway in round two, but if that team is out, you win your first round group and all that stands between you and the Octagonal is a home and away series win against a country that's not even in the top 11 in the region.

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On 8/19/2020 at 1:34 PM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

So, unless COVID19 spoils the established schedule (very likely folks!), it would be:

Thursday, October 8th: Canada vs Bermuda
Sunday, October 11th: Cayman Islands vs Canada

Saturday, November 14th: Aruba vs Canada
Tuesday, November 17th: Canada vs Suriname

Ya, as we all expected, those dates are almost certainly not happening.

The Cayman Islands don't think so:

https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/08/27/caymans-world-cup-qualifying-campaign-may-be-postponed/

At best they should cancel the October window and make the November one longer.

 

At worse (or if FIFA gets smart), this first round needs to be played in a bubble in one country. Everyone arrives and isolates for 12 days (not 14 it's a waste of time but I don't think Canada will switch their quarantine rules*) with testing if required. The games are played over a period of 16 days. 

 

*https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-basics
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period/

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6 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Ya, as we all expected, those dates are almost certainly not happening.

The Cayman Islands don't think so:

https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/08/27/caymans-world-cup-qualifying-campaign-may-be-postponed/

At best they should cancel the October window and make the November one longer.

 

At worse (or if FIFA gets smart), this first round needs to be played in a bubble in one country. Everyone arrives and isolates for 12 days (not 14 it's a waste of time but I don't think Canada will switch their quarantine rules*) with testing if required. The games are played over a period of 16 days. 

 

*https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-basics
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period/

I am constantly amazed at the info you are able to dig up. Thanks for this!

It’s nice to know there is at least one confederation that is looking into if this is actually possible.

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Posted (edited)

People aren't really scared anymore and as more and more things start to happen it will be tough for people to shut things down. They are getting creative. But ultimately I think Oct 1 seems to be a benchmark date that enough has already taken place successfully that things will be fine. Fingers crossed right guys

Edited by SpursFlu

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1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

People aren't really scared anymore and as more and more things start to happen it will be tough for people to shut things down. They are getting creative. But ultimately I think Oct 1 seems to be a benchmark date that enough has already taken place successfully that things will be fine. Fingers crossed right guys

Eventually that will be true.  But not this calendar year.

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2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

People aren't really scared anymore and as more and more things start to happen it will be tough for people to shut things down. They are getting creative. But ultimately I think Oct 1 seems to be a benchmark date that enough has already taken place successfully that things will be fine. Fingers crossed right guys

Yea if everyone turns off their American media outlets ...but that can

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Posted (edited)

I think I read that uefa has/is/will/maybe put in a rule that if a team is willing to come play you and your government won't allow the team to enter without quarantine you forfeit. Spurs fans were complaining cuz they have europa qualifiers coming up but I like the rule. It might force teams to play both legs away or arrange an alternate location. Same thing could happen here 

Edited by SpursFlu

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4 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I think I read that uefa has/is/will/maybe put in a rule that if a team is willing to come play you and your government won't allow the team to enter without quarantine you forfeit. Spurs fans were complaining cuz they have europa qualifiers coming up but I like the rule. It might force teams to play both legs away or arrange an alternate location. Same thing could happen here 

If my public health officials say no to a team entering the country due to Covid concerns, then no football confederation or FA is going to make me let them in.  Forfeit it is!  And that includes Canada.

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6 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

If my public health officials say no to a team entering the country due to Covid concerns, then no football confederation or FA is going to make me let them in.  Forfeit it is!  And that includes Canada.

Yah exactly because conversely a public health official let the other team in to their country.

Its gonna start to look real strange when a team travels to country and plays normally in front of a crowd and the return leg can't be played or without fans. Just saying 

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On 8/25/2020 at 10:11 AM, Floortom said:

Outside of Wells (clearly their best player by far), would Bermuda be hurt that much? Most of their players are domestic.

Wells wants to play us! http://www.royalgazette.com/soccer/article/20200828/best-is-yet-to-come-says-wells

-----------------------------

Trinidad (obviously) want qualifiers postponed:

https://www.guardian.co.tt/sports/look-loy-wants-concacaf-qualifiers-postponed-6.2.1191894.9204434df3

An El Salvador player is talking about how he doubts CONCACAF's current protocols:

https://us.as.com/us/2020/08/23/futbol/1598216007_391401.html

The pressure is mounting on CONCACAF...

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21 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah exactly because conversely a public health official let the other team in to their country.

Its gonna start to look real strange when a team travels to country and plays normally in front of a crowd and the return leg can't be played or without fans. Just saying 

I think this is where UEFA has mandated no crowds period.  This actually could work in our favour (I’m looking at you Honduras).

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

I think this is where UEFA has mandated no crowds period.  This actually could work in our favour (I’m looking at you Honduras).

so a team will play in front of packed house on Saturday and no fans on Thursday. I guess the point is to keep the shocking spectical of fans in stands off our TV screens. An even stranger concept

For instance I watched the Jeff Horn Tim Tszyu fight from Australia yesterday and I was caught off guard to see like 10k people crammed together enjoying the fight. Very surprising 

Edited by SpursFlu

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

so a team will play in front of packed house on Saturday and no fans on Thursday. I guess the point is to keep the shocking spectical of fans in stands off our TV screens. An even stranger concept

For instance I watched the Jeff Horn Tim Tszyu fight from Australia yesterday and I was caught off guard to see like 10k people crammed together enjoying the fight. Very surprising 

This is what is happening with the UEFA Nations League and the club competitions.  

I’ve also watched 30,000 crammed into Super Rugby in New Zealand.  That is perfectly fine as it is a domestic competition and they had a good grasp of the situation.  But no way the NZ government allows a foreign team onto its soil without significant assurances.  I’m perfectly fine with our government doing the same.  

Edited by JamboAl

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Germany just announced no fans until at least end of October and no large gatherings until 2021.

Canada just extended travel restrictions until end of September.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

This is what is happening with the UEFA Nations League and the club competitions.  

I’ve also watched 30,000 crammed into Super Rugby in New Zealand.  That is perfectly fine as it is a domestic competition and they had a good grasp of the situation.  But no way the NZ government allows a foreign team onto its soil without significant assurances.  I’m perfectly fine with our government doing the same.  

Yah most leagues seem to be coming back Oct 1. Some already have. Was surprised to see a pretty big crowd for that Lille game  I think England have fans back for a few games this weekend as a trial

Yah its crazy how few deaths there have been in Australia. But to their credit im not sure I've ever met a fat Aussie. Good for them

Edited by SpursFlu

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17 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Yah most leagues seem to be coming back Oct 1. Some already have. Was surprised to see a pretty big crowd for that Lille game  I think England have fans back for a few games this weekend as a trial

Yah its crazy how few deaths there have been in Australia. But to their credit im not sure I've ever met a fat Aussie. Good for them

This is probably why the US mortality rate was so high.

I too was surprised by the Lille crowd, in a good way. Once they demonstrate success with limited crowds it won’t be long until other clubs and leagues do the same. 

Nice to see things returning back to normal. Good for the bottom line of clubs. Good for the game.

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17 minutes ago, Obinna said:

This is probably why the US mortality rate was so high.

I too was surprised by the Lille crowd, in a good way. Once they demonstrate success with limited crowds it won’t be long until other clubs and leagues do the same. 

Nice to see things returning back to normal. Good for the bottom line of clubs. Good for the game.

Cultural gatherings are very important to a community. Sport, music, art, dance, food, religious, family etc etc. Very essential 

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5 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

so a team will play in front of packed house on Saturday and no fans on Thursday. I guess the point is to keep the shocking spectical of fans in stands off our TV screens. An even stranger concept

For instance I watched the Jeff Horn Tim Tszyu fight from Australia yesterday and I was caught off guard to see like 10k people crammed together enjoying the fight. Very surprising 

The fight was held in north Queensland. Queensland has had very few cases for several months and has its border closed to anyone from out of state. They allow limited crowds for events.

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49 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

The fight was held in north Queensland. Queensland has had very few cases for several months and has its border closed to anyone from out of state. They allow limited crowds for events.

Cool.. side not for boxing fans. Tim Tszyu fantastic talent. Totally reminded me of his father. One to watch

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