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The Road to Qatar.

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4 hours ago, Ansem said:

If we win it, yes but the multiplier is lower as they are only friendlies

FIFA Multipliers

  • 05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
  • 10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
  • 15 – Nations League matches (group stage)
  • 25 – Nations League matches (play-offs and finals)
  • 25 – Confederations' final competitions qualifiers, FIFA World Cup qualifiers
  • 35 – Confederations' final competitions matches (before quarter-finals)
  • 40 – Confederations' final competitions matches (quarter-finals and later)
  • 50 – FIFA World Cup matches (before quarter-finals)
  • 60 – FIFA World Cup matches (quarter-finals and later)

Using the FIFA Multipliers above, I wonder how co-hosting the 2026 World Cup Final, and not having to qualify, will impact Canada's ranking? 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, SpecialK said:

So  25 points per window (2 games) we can get. Giddy up !!! - it’s going to be a lot of soccer very exciting!!! 

Our roster pool is going to be tested hard ! 

That's not correct.  It's far less.
 

I spent my exciting Wednesday night building a spreadsheet model with all of the ranking calculations and scenarios.  I'll try and put it in simple terms.  I used the July ranking preview from www.football-rankings.info

http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/07/fifa-ranking-july-2019-probable-ranking.html

 

For the rest of this year, putting it in the simplest terms possible for Canada starting on 1312 points:

- Wins against Cuba get us approximately 3 points each (-12 for a loss)
- Wins against the US approximately 11 points each.  (-4.5 for a loss)

- Friendly wins against teams ranked around 50 in the world get us approximately 6 points (-4 points for a loss)

- Friendly wins against teams ranked around 100 in the world get us approximately 4 points. (-6 points for a loss). 

Imagine where we'd be right now with another 10 to 15 friendly wins from the past few years against cupcakes 100-150 in the world.  IT ADDS UP!!  You don't have to beat good teams.  You just need to beat a lot of bad ones.

 

 

For El Salvador, if they win all 6 of their Nations league games against Montserrat, Dominican Republic, and St Lucia they'll go from 1341 points to 1358.  We really need Montserrat to beat them at least once (-12 points).  I think they're the only team in that group that can (Feels weird saying that!).

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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9 hours ago, Blackdude said:

Only 2 CONCACAF teams we can really schedule that would be interesting for FIFA points for the October and November windows: Panama and Curaçao. If CSA is serious about making the hex, they'd try to get those matchups going.

We REALLY need to get as many games as possible.

1) We need to play a couple of semi-minnows in mid-January. Camp Poutine 2020 has become a MUST. We can call CanPL/USL/MLS and possibly Nordic/Scottish based players.

2) If we don't make the CNL playoffs (by beating the USA this fall) we need friendlies in March 2020.

3) The rankings counted are the ones after June 2020. There is no Gold Cup or CNL games that window right? We need at least two friendlies once again.

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1 minute ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

We REALLY need to get as many games as possible.

1) We need to play a couple of semi-minnows in mid-January. Camp Poutine 2020 has become a MUST. We can call CanPL/USL/MLS and possibly Nordic/Scottish based players.

 2) If we don't make the CNL playoffs (by beating the USA this fall) we need friendlies in March 2020.

 3) The rankings counted are the ones after June 2020. There is no Gold Cup or CNL games that window right? We need at least two friendlies once again.

Drop Scottish. I still think that it will be hard and that we'll need a miracle like a crazy run in CNL to get there.

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Posted (edited)

It's disappointing to see that we would only receive around 11 points for a win against the US. Combine that with the 3 or so points that we would get from each match with Cuba, and that 28 point gap is going to be tough to make up.

My hope right now, in addition to lots of friendlies against comparable teams to us, is that CONCACAF is drawn with Oceania or Asia for the intercontinental playoff. The non-Hex side would be exciting if we knew it didn't eventually lead to a playoff with a South American country.

I can't believe that if today's rankings were to hold a year from now, El Salvador would have an automatic spot in the Hex. The one time I would feel pretty good about our chances in a home and away aggregate series with either El Salvador or Honduras, we may not get the chance because they could both have automatic spots in the Hex.

Edited by jtpc

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Posted (edited)

Cant wait for the intercontinental playoff to draw concacaf against south america. So we have to win 98 elimination rounds and then the 99th in san pedro sula and the 100th in peru or chile. 

If we do draw south america we gotta do everything we can to make the hex. 

Edited by king1010

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The other factor here is that we better hope that Mex and the U.S. don't falter in the Hex, or we really are f**ked.  They need to be in the top 3 ... the other 4 teams are at least beatable.

 

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14 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

When is the intercontinental draw? Like when will it happen?

Dont think fifa has announced that publicly yet. 

Even a draw against asia is tough. Last cycle australia was their rep as their 5th seed and knocked out honduras. 

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9 minutes ago, king1010 said:

Dont think fifa has announced that publicly yet. 

Even a draw against asia is tough. Last cycle australia was their rep as their 5th seed and knocked out honduras. 

We would be underdogs against Australia but at least we would give them a game. Against south America we could easily end up playing Chile, Uruguay or even Argentina, that would be such an absolute cruel joke, to be nothing more than lambs up for slaughter after all those gruelling concacaf play offs.

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Not enough people are calling BS here.

We finally have a team that could realistically make the Hex (which would in itself be an accomplishment and give us 10 quality games) and CONCACAF pulls this stunt with a Canadian at the helm? Montagliani is either corrupt or stupid.  

There is a big difference in hoping to qualify from a fair process even if it’s just a 10% chance vs. this joke of a format that gives us a 1-2% chance.

And then there’s the complete unfairness of using the FIFA rankings that are calculated based on results from games before the format is laid out... oh and that win against Martinique (who is actually in the Top 100)  won’t give you points, and those games you have to play against a Cuba team who somehow makes Nation League A but is ranked 175 in the world will get you at most 3 points each.

In the past we’d go on and on about the shady seedlings for the pre-Hex round... this is so many more times unjust!

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All true. But the CSA has to take some blame here as well. We were all calling for friendlies to be played in each Nations League qualifying window. Add one pre Gold Cup friendly, and that's 20 points.

Everyone else in Concacaf was playing friendlies. We sat idle. That's on the CSA.

Farce. 

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Posted (edited)

How much money the chairman of CONCACAF received from US?!

This is totally a US benificial move since the Yanks are feeling not confidence making to HEX anymore through old system. 

BTW, has FIFA approved this ******* new format?

Edited by lamptern

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Posted (edited)

I dont have a problem with them giving the top 6 a chance to play for the top 2 spots but then they have the next 2 In the Hex plus the top 2 in the rest of the qualifying play for the 1.5 spots; or better, they use the nation league to generate the 6 by having the 4 winners plus the second place finishers playoff to generate the next 2.  That is the fairest as that is not wholly relying on dubious rankings and was subject to play in where sides actually had to beat each other in a competition to qualify. 

Edited by An Observer

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Does the new format run the risk that certain border-line Hex countries may become content with the number of points they have and opt not to play any friendlies, or become extremely selective if they do? How attractive an opponent does this make Canada for friendlies?

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I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

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8 minutes ago, costarg said:

I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

Would you like to start in a process where you have a shot at 3.5 spots for the World Cup or would you like to start in a process where you have a shot at .5 spots?  The countries that benefit from this are the big ones (Mexico, US), as they no longer have to worry about upsets in the earlier rounds.  Maybe this allows them to play more money making friendlies against major countries as opposed to having to play a qualifier against Caribbean minnow #4.

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8 minutes ago, costarg said:

I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

Honestly, my main issue with the format is the retroactivity of it.  If the CSA knew this was coming, they would have had a very strong financial incentive to book friendlies over the last 2 years.  If we knew it was coming, maybe don't put out a B team against Mexico in the GC as those points would have been huge.  Etc.

This is like asking everyone in geography class for their scribbler and then telling them that 75% of their grade will be based on the notes they have taken.

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1 minute ago, costarg said:

I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

Let's put it this way: suppose you are the #6 team in the rankings.  Your chances of being eliminated *before* the HEX have dropped to 0. They would certainly not be 0 otherwise.  One might say, "but the #6 team has little chance of finishing top 3".  Sure, but that's not who they're competing against necessarily.  The difference in quality between #4, #5, and #6 is rather small.  What are the chances that #6 finishes ahead of #4 and #5?  I don't think it's crazy to say that it's 33%.  So, even if the #6 has a 0% chance of finishing top 3, they have a 33% chance of finishing in 4th.  At that point, they need to win 2 home-and-away tilts.  In the first, they would likely have a 50% chance of coming out on top.  In the second, maybe it's lower, say 40%.  That means #6 has roughly a 7% chance of qualifying for the WC.

What about the #7 ranked team?  There is essentially zero difference in quality between #6 and #7.  But, in the new system, there is no way that the #7 ranked team has a 7% chance of qualifying for the WC ...

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, costarg said:

I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

^ 1/116 =-0.8% chance which is a smaller chance than 3.25/6 = 54% it's simple math. And if you say teams 7-35 are all easy, we still have to win 2 more knockout rounds which puts us at 25% instead of 54% chance if you make the fake hex

it is completely our of our hands as they incorporated FIFA ranking from 3 years ago that no one knew mattered that much

Edited by canadafan101

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