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The Road to Qatar.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Trois Reds said:

I will stay out of commenting on the rest of this post, but there are studies that already show Covid causes permanent heart damage, brain damage to some people, and potential permanent lung issues.  That includes people without symptoms. The economy is tied to our health, and if you're sick, you're not contributing to the economy. If you're dead, you definitely aren't. Sure, as you wrote in an earlier post here, a few people died a few years early, big deal (a little callous IMO, but I digress). But 97% of people survive. Now you have thousands of people under 40 who will be burdening our health system, because they caught Covid in 2020, for the next 30 to 50 years. And, because they have health issues, they won't be working as much, putting a strain on our economy. Never mind the people over 40 who would have been fine for decades suddenly developing decades-long health problems.

Sweden, for one, stayed open and their economy still tanked. I'd rather a bad economy for a year because Canada tried to keep it's people safe than reopening now and deal with decades of health costs which impact our economy.

What I am about to say is off topic, but I am going to say it and get back to the soccer talk:

The global economy was already at the end of it's cycle before Covid-19. We now have an "everything" bubble and it is popping. Covid-19 was just the pin. Something else would have been the pin if it were not for the virus. 

I am not an economist nor do I have a crystal ball, so take this with a grain of salt, but there will be no "bad for a year" scenario. We are experiencing/about to experience a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis. This is primarily the consequence of bad economic and monetary policy.

The response to Covid-19 from Canada (and other countries) was compassionate and the right thing to do in one sense, but the economic damage will be far reaching for many years, if not decades.

It was akin to a car rolling down a hill, headed off of cliff and the driver slams the gas instead of the brake. 

Ever wonder where all this money is coming from for these relief programs? It is being created/borrowed into existence. This is disastrous for anyone with a basic understanding of economics.

Why is this disastrous? Because it destroys the purchasing power. This hurts the people. Without people there is no economy. 

I realize there is no economy with sick people or dead people, but I would argue the destruction of purchasing power (a destruction of the currency) is far worse. It makes everything harder to manage for every industry, including the health industry that prevents us from getting sick or dying.   

The loss of purchasing power is the biggest threat we are facing right now. 

You see, we provide value to one another by working and providing each other goods and services. The value is accounted for using currency.

But when you flood the system with non-productive cheap currency, the value of each unit in circulation decreases. You can't buy the same things with your hard earned dollars. Your purchasing power collapses. You see this all over the developing world.

This is coming to the industrialized nations, including Canada, and eventually the world reserve currency (US dollar) will be the last man standing and that too will fail. That is the path we are on, the only question is how many currencies will be destroyed along the way and whether the USD will be destroyed before it loses it's world reserve status. Whether the USD loses it's reserve status is not an "if" but a "when".

Anyways, that is my long, long, long rambling way of saying that worrying about the economic strain from the virus itself is missing the forest from the trees.

It's like worrying about a drug addict's caffeine addiction, or worrying about your knee pain while being kidnapped.

Those things are problems and will make the situation worse, but they are relatively insignificant. 

Final thing, I should clarify that it's not all doom and gloom. I don't think we are headed for the end of the world here, but we are headed for some wild and turbulent times! There will be great opportunity in the next several years for those who play their cards right!

Cheers

Edited by Obinna

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15 minutes ago, Obinna said:

What I am about to say is off topic, but I am going to say it and get back to the soccer talk:

The global economy was already at the end of it's cycle before Covid-19. We now have an "everything" bubble and it is popping. Covid-19 was just the pin. Something else would have been the pin if it were not for the virus. 

I am not an economist nor do I have a crystal ball, so take this with a grain of salt, but there will be no "bad for a year" scenario. We are experiencing/about to experience a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis. This is primarily the consequence of bad economic and monetary policy.

The response to Covid-19 from Canada (and other countries) was compassionate and the right thing to do in one sense, but the economic damage will be far reaching for many years, if not decades.

It was akin to a car rolling down a hill, headed off of cliff and the driver slams the gas instead of the brake. 

Ever wonder where all this money is coming from for these relief programs? It is being created/borrowed into existence. This is disastrous for anyone with a basic understanding of economics.

Why is this disastrous? Because it destroys the purchasing power. This hurts the people. Without people there is no economy. 

I realize there is no economy with sick people or dead people, but I would argue the destruction of purchasing power (a destruction of the currency) is far worse. It makes everything harder to manage for every industry, including the health industry.   

The loss of purchasing power is the biggest threat we are facing right now. 

You see, we provide value to one another by working and providing each other goods and services. The value is accounted for using currency.

But when you flood the system with non-productive cheap currency, the value of each unit in circulation decreases. You can't buy the same things with your hard earned dollars. Your purchasing power collapses. You see this all over the developing world.

This is coming to the industrialized nations, including Canada, and eventually the world reserve currency (US dollar) will be the last man standing and that too will fail. That is the path we are on, the only question is how many currencies will be destroyed along the way and whether the USD will be destroyed before it loses it's world reserve status. Whether the USD loses it's reserve status is not an "if" but a "when".

Anyways, that is my long, long, long rambling way of saying that worrying about the economic strain from the virus itself is missing the forest from the trees.

It's like worrying about a drug addict's caffeine addiction, or worrying about your knee pain while being kidnapped.

Those things are problems and will make the situation worse, but they are relatively insignificant. 

Final thing, I should clarify that it's not all doom and gloom. I don't think we are headed for the end of the world here, but we are headed for some wild and turbulent times! There will be great opportunity in the next several years for those who play their cards right!

Cheers

It won’t be this bad. 
 

but like you said...back to soccer. 

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Did 2 draws tonight just for fun to see who we ended up with in Group B. Both look like great options. 

Draw #1: Canada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Belize, Saint Lucia, Aruba

Draw #2: Canada, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, British Virgin Islands

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2 hours ago, Obinna said:

 

That is the path we are on, the only question is how many currencies will be destroyed along the way and whether the USD will be destroyed before it loses it's world reserve status. Whether the USD loses it's reserve status is not an "if" but a "when".

 

The USD will not lose its reserve currency status until there is something that can replace it.  There are only two realistic candidates.  The Euro and the RMB.  Whatever weaknesses the dollar has, the Euro has plenty more as was exposed by the Greek debt crisis and the PIIGS in 2011.  The only way the Euro replaces the dollar is if you have a pan-European government with taxing power and transfer payments between the North and the South (like Canada has between provinces).  That is not going to happen anytime soon. As for the RMB, you can't have a reserve currency if you dont have free flow of capital and no capital controls.  That is at least a generation off in China as the Communist Party knows full well that opening the border would result in a huge swooshing sound of money leaving that market to multiple safer havens in the rest of the world.  In recent years, the tide has been the other way with the border tightening and RMB internationalisation going in reverse.

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28 minutes ago, jtpc said:

Did 2 draws tonight just for fun to see who we ended up with in Group B. Both look like great options. 

Draw #1: Canada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Belize, Saint Lucia, Aruba

Draw #2: Canada, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, British Virgin Islands

Given the necessity of maintaining good relationships with clubs and limiting travel demands on our best players over (hopefully) 20 matches, we may need to count on an MLS/CPL-heavy squad to take care of much of this first round of qualifying. I don't think it's crazy to suggest a squad missing, say, David, Davies, Hoilett, Arfield, and Borjan, could still take care of business with these groups.

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On 7/27/2020 at 5:54 PM, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Define "screwed over".  It's akin to having a load of money mysteriously show up in your bank account and then you get a tap on the shoulder telling you that you have to give it back.  They've done nothing to deserve a direct place in the hex and were given a ridiculously undeserved advantage.  Now they're asked to actually earn it against the weakest possible opponent (Trinidad).  

They should have just done 

 

On 7/27/2020 at 5:28 PM, nfitz said:

Not sure why they didn't just go with 8 groups of 4 (or 5 of 4, and 3 of 5) (or 8 of 4, and with the bottom 6 doing a play in).

They should have just done 5 groups with 6 teams and 1 group with 5 teams and all the winners make the Hex and top 3 go to the World Cup and 4th goes to playoffs. Just like UEFA, and who cares if teams get blown out San Marino and Gibraltar play Germany or other heavyweights all the time in the qualification why should we be any different.

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I think they need to give this a go and try to start the qualifying in October but I wouldn't bet on it happening.  Looking at the other regions like Africa, Asia and South America (the first two have already started qualifying and South America has been pushed to start in October like us), I think the World Cup going ahead in 2022 is really questionable if qualifying doesn't start this autumn.  A few thoughts on the other regions (hint, Concacaf has the biggest issues):

Europe:  doesn't start until March 2021 so they have the most flexibility 

Asia: already well into the second round which they need to finish the third and fourth round.  They need all the dates left to finish unless they do like concacaf and use 2 extra dates in June 2021 and Jan 2022 which seems possible.

Africa:  first round completed but have alot of flexibility as aren't currently using the March 2022 dates and possibly could add Jan 2022 dates if needed.  Cant add June 2021 as that conflicts with the Africa Cup of Nations.

South America: Needs all the dates including the extra ones in Jan 2022 and cant use the June 2021 extra dates as conflicts with the Copa America.  Would need to move away from a single table format to probably two groups of 5 with top two going through and the two third place playing off for the intercontinental playoffs.  But that would mean FIFA sanctioning teams qualifying with only playing 8 matches which probably could work.

Concacaf:  Needs all the dates left for qualifying.  Would likely need the Octagon turned into some sort of single leg rather than two legs against each side which probably would mean the use of a neutral venue as while they are doing that at the initial stage now I cant see them being able to do it in the Octagon as countries would complain massively as there would alot of bias plus you have to play 7 matches which means some would get 4 home matches and others 3.

And all the above is predicated that qualifying could start in March 2021 without a hitch if it cant go ahead this autumn.  I suspect that its highly unlikely there will be a vaccine then at least in wide distribution and the nothern hemisphere will be coming out of winter we are sure to see another wave.  So unless the world's tolerance to Covid and the related deaths increases dramatically (which is possible), it will be challenged to even start it then.  My expectation is that leading up to the end of the year, the calls for moving the World Cup to 2023 will intensify as I doubt qualifying will go on around the world in the autumn without a hitch.

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9 hours ago, An Observer said:

I think they need to give this a go and try to start the qualifying in October but I wouldn't bet on it happening.  Looking at the other regions like Africa, Asia and South America (the first two have already started qualifying and South America has been pushed to start in October like us), I think the World Cup going ahead in 2022 is really questionable if qualifying doesn't start this autumn.  A few thoughts on the other regions (hint, Concacaf has the biggest issues):

Europe:  doesn't start until March 2021 so they have the most flexibility 

Asia: already well into the second round which they need to finish the third and fourth round.  They need all the dates left to finish unless they do like concacaf and use 2 extra dates in June 2021 and Jan 2022 which seems possible.

Africa:  first round completed but have alot of flexibility as aren't currently using the March 2022 dates and possibly could add Jan 2022 dates if needed.  Cant add June 2021 as that conflicts with the Africa Cup of Nations.

South America: Needs all the dates including the extra ones in Jan 2022 and cant use the June 2021 extra dates as conflicts with the Copa America.  Would need to move away from a single table format to probably two groups of 5 with top two going through and the two third place playing off for the intercontinental playoffs.  But that would mean FIFA sanctioning teams qualifying with only playing 8 matches which probably could work.

Concacaf:  Needs all the dates left for qualifying.  Would likely need the Octagon turned into some sort of single leg rather than two legs against each side which probably would mean the use of a neutral venue as while they are doing that at the initial stage now I cant see them being able to do it in the Octagon as countries would complain massively as there would alot of bias plus you have to play 7 matches which means some would get 4 home matches and others 3.

And all the above is predicated that qualifying could start in March 2021 without a hitch if it cant go ahead this autumn.  I suspect that its highly unlikely there will be a vaccine then at least in wide distribution and the nothern hemisphere will be coming out of winter we are sure to see another wave.  So unless the world's tolerance to Covid and the related deaths increases dramatically (which is possible), it will be challenged to even start it then.  My expectation is that leading up to the end of the year, the calls for moving the World Cup to 2023 will intensify as I doubt qualifying will go on around the world in the autumn without a hitch.

Only problem with Africa is that they postponed African Cup of Nations to 2022 actually but every other confederation I can get behind their start dates

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16 hours ago, Free kick said:

A couple of points, first of all you indicated:

 Sure, as you wrote in an earlier post here, a few people died a few years early, big deal (a little callous IMO, ) 

But i never said such a thing.  You must be thinking of someone else’s post.   Also, i dont recall anyone exactly saying that.  I only commented once on this topic in this whole thread and that the post you cited
 

For the rest,   I can respect your opinion.  For what its worth mine is little bit different.  Will expand later..

I am back,  continuing:  regarding the studies pointing to heart, brain and lung damage.   Problem with this argument is that that is not the reason why the economy was shut down and confinement was imposed nor is it likely to be reason (for now) for a prolonged or future confinement.   The reason for the confinement (worth repeating) was to protect the health care system. In other words not overwhelm the health care workers.  It seems to have worked.   In ontario,  in the early days of the pandemic,  if you would go to the website, they would just tell you to stay home.  If it was an issue about permanent damage to lung, heart and brain, they wouldnt be telling people to say home.  In other words they (ie.; medical authorities) are likely to put all these studies into context and look at the bigger picture.  Also, we dont have context for these studies that you cited.

Point is, we dont know what the long term impact will be (if any) in 20-50 year for those under 40.   Much like we dont know about LT impact of other similar or differnt diseases. There are always going be new studies.   i will stop here because i am just not an authority on medicine.

but one thing i do know about is Economics.   If we accept that the costs of the pandemic to the economy far far exceeded the costs to the health care system.  Thats pretty easy to do,  there are 2-3 million people who lost their jobs (and incomes) and whose incomes needed to be supllemented by public deficit and/or debt financing.   And countless more in the future due to the ecomonic downturn.  Now your economic argument weakens when when you compare the fatality rates to those who lost income.  Money doesnt grow trees, it has to be repaid eventually.  Not to mention, the adverse impact to ecomomic growth and the health impacts (mental and physical) consequence of confinement.  

Everyone’s risk tolerance is different.  Some people drive racing cars for a living.  Climb mountains or go hiking in the rockies when there is possibility of avalance.  If you were quantify the risk, its level of acceptability would be different for all of us.  At the other end, there are people who go to the hospital when they get a headache.  Similar with the pandemic some people think that there has ot be zero active cases or they wont leave the house (thats not me) or  someone else might think its 10 thousand that they are comfortable with. 

my view,  i accepted the shut down and was expecting 3-4 months of it.  But we are now at the point when the number active cases approximates the fan turnout at a Toronto Lynx game in the days of the USL.  This is a number i am more comfortable with.  So i dont get why the majority of the economically devastating measures (such as travel and border restrictions) have to still exist.  Listening to your doctor is important, but its not THE ONLY person you should listen to.  how about your banker?  Economic devastation can be pretty bad and one year of this?  You will have worst problems to worry about and far more deaths resulting from it than CoVid 19.
 

 

You don't get why there are border restrictions, have you read the news from the US lately or do you not believe it or do you think it would be a good idea to let an infected country travel to Canada where we have done quite well comparitively in controlling the virus? 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Obinna said:

The loss of purchasing power is the biggest threat we are facing right now...But when you flood the system with non-productive cheap currency, the value of each unit in circulation decreases.

1) There is certainly huge inflation risk. This is very true.

2) There is also a risk of deflation associated with a dropping demand for many things. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/could-the-coronavirus-pandemic-lead-to-deflation

3) The externalities of any policy must be taken into account. In Canada, the quick and strong financial response, including CERB undoubtedly contributed to people staying home for longer and returning to work more slowly. This has helped slow the spread of the virus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality The "short term pain" strategy of most Canadian provinces in May/June when compared to US states that re-opened quickly has given us greater "long term gain" now, in an economy where workers can be more productive and safe.

4) Foreign capital won't flee Canada if we continue to show we are a literally healthy country.

 

--------------------------------------

In CONCACAF news, when this new format goes to **** because:
Thursday, October 8th: Pot #4 team vs Canada
Sunday, October 11th: Canada vs Pot #3 team

Saturday, November 14th: Pot #5 team vs Canada
Tuesday, November 17th: Canada vs Pot #2 team

can't happen with all the travel restrictions and self isolation rules, I predict that CONCACAF  will cut the Octo from 14 matches to 7 per team (a similar setup to the CONCACAF first round). This is the emergency contingency (the buffer) that allows for 7 more matchdays of leeway. Everybody plays everybody else one time (instead of twice) but perhaps the safest regions or the top 4 ranked teams will get 4 home matches and the bottom 4 ranked teams will get 3 home matches.

Edited by Olympique_de_Marseille

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Posted (edited)

There's a possibility that Trinidad may be suspended from FIFA for government interference.  This could eliminate them from WCQ.

http://www.insideworldfootball.com/2020/07/30/comment-world-cup-will-trinidad-left-playing-tobago/

It is important to note this FIFA rule on government interference is only ever applied to small countries or those with no power in the world.  

 

 

If this suspension happens then I presume Antigua would take their place as the last seeded team and potentially face El Salvador, although El Salvador will still find a way to complain.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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The first round dates in October and November have got to be semi-bubbled , possibly in Sarasota, tho those are a lot of clubs to host. No way they  can be home/away this year. The best thing to do is to bubble each group in a different place. I can only see bubbles happening in US, Canada, and maybe Mexico or Puerto Rico.  Good TV revenue to be had from the latino market. Things gotta be arranged pretty soon, bros! Hopefully, the clubs with our players do not play silly bugger, and the CSA be more professional in dealing with the clubs than they have in the past. 

We will see. 

 

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Yeah for CONCACAF qualifiers I would have the bubbles set up in Canada, USA and Puerto Rico but for the Canadian cities that I would use as bubbles:

BMO Field Toronto

BC Place Vancouver 

 

US cities as Bubbles

Houston, Texas (NRG Stadium)

Los Angeles, California (Rose Bowl)

 

Latin American Bubble for Central American and Caribbean teams

Puerto Rico

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I'm not sure there will be a point to create a "bubble" if they play in Vancouver in October. Maybe just create a policy that asks players to keep to themselves as much as possible and just go from there. 2 games in a week will leave little time for much else. I'm hoping "bubble" is a term we can retire soon

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On 7/31/2020 at 3:15 PM, JamboAl said:

As long as there is no special dispensation from the federal government, I don't know how a bubble works in Canada without a prior 14 day quarantine. 

It can work if you quarantine anyone leaving the bubble to remain in Canada, quarantine for 14 days afterwards. That's what the Blue Jays were proposing. What really hurt them, is they wanted to come and go from the bubble to the USA - with multiple trips to Florida.

2 games in a week, then 3 weeks later another 2 game in a week makes no sense. Might as well do 4 games in 2 weeks.

Soon? Many countries have rates that are so high, that they won't be able to travel freely into Canada for many months. I don't see how the Tokyo Olympics won't be a bubble - and that's a year away.

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3 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

In a clear attempt by CONCACAF to prove to El Salvador that the confederation isn't totally beholden to rigging it all for Canada, it would appear they have ordered their social media intern at gunpoint to troll us all on twitter. 

 

Yeah, the full game is now available on the YouTube channel as part of the CONCACAF rewind series. I was patiently waiting for some Canadian content and they give us this. I guess I can’t blame them. It’s not like we have a long list of triumphant games to choose from.

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4 hours ago, Obinna said:

Yeah, the full game is now available on the YouTube channel as part of the CONCACAF rewind series. I was patiently waiting for some Canadian content and they give us this. I guess I can’t blame them. It’s not like we have a long list of triumphant games to choose from.

They showed the 2000 Gold Cup final last week. 

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10 hours ago, Obinna said:

Yeah, the full game is now available on the YouTube channel as part of the CONCACAF rewind series. I was patiently waiting for some Canadian content and they give us this. I guess I can’t blame them. It’s not like we have a long list of triumphant games to choose from.

By the way, that canceled goal of Atiba at min 83 was it offside or not?

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On 7/31/2020 at 11:52 AM, beachesl said:

The first round dates in October and November have got to be semi-bubbled , possibly in Sarasota, tho those are a lot of clubs to host. No way they  can be home/away this year. The best thing to do is to bubble each group in a different place. I can only see bubbles happening in US, Canada, and maybe Mexico or Puerto Rico.  Good TV revenue to be had from the latino market. Things gotta be arranged pretty soon, bros! Hopefully, the clubs with our players do not play silly bugger, and the CSA be more professional in dealing with the clubs than they have in the past. 

We will see. 

 

You aren't getting bubbles with all of the international players coming in during that window.

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1 hour ago, Razcal said:

You aren't getting bubbles with all of the international players coming in during that window.

Yeah.  They wont be quarantining for 2 weeks in the place where the bubble is before the match; nor will their clubs want them to quarantine for 2 weeks when they get back.

The good thing is that from what I have read, we probably will get a vaccine in Q4 this year or Q1 next year (although no guarantees); but the bad news is that its unlikely that will be 100% effective or even readily available until Q4 2021 globally (with high risk people getting first priority such as those in nursing homes or front line health care workers in the early days and eventually be rolled out to others in some staged orderly fashion....although its not clear whether some countries such as the US and China wont horde it for themselves firs if one of their companies develops it first).  You might be able to see the Olympics getting an exception in mid summer next year for all the athletes, support personnel, officials, sponsors, etc and perhaps even the Euros but you wont see that this autumn or likely even next March for football players so they can fly around the globe for World Cup qualifying.

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