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The Road to Qatar.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I think travel is pretty wide open and normal in Europe. The problem is coming back if you have a quarantine. For instance Chelsea have the FA Cup final and a few days later they play Bayern in Germany I believe. Then a few days later either of those teams play in Portugal 

Just yesterday the UK announced that anyone returning from the Spanish Islands must quarantine for 2 weeks.

For all we know Canada could draw a country with a major outbreak.

We have players scattered all over the world. They could face quarantine either going to or coming back from WCQ.

In my opinion this announcement may turn out to be a temporary solution. I think in the end qualifying will have to be a bubble tournament.

Edited by narduch

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2 minutes ago, narduch said:

Just yesterday the UK announced that anyone returning from the Spanish Islands must quarantine for 2 weeks.

For all we know Canada could draw a country with a major outbreak.

Anyone from the UK returning from the Spanish Islands should definitely be put in quarantine lol... this should be a permanent rule. Either that or detox 

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1 minute ago, SpursFlu said:

Anyone from the UK returning from the Spanish Islands should definitely be put in quarantine lol... this should be a permanent rule. Either that or detox 

Lol.

The point I'm trying to make is that the situation is fluid.

I don't have an issue with planning for games in October or November. But we need to be aware of the fact that there is a very high probability it is canceled 

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5 minutes ago, narduch said:

Just yesterday the UK announced that anyone returning from the Spanish Islands must quarantine for 2 weeks.

And people are uuuuuuupset.

But more relevant to football, it will be interesting to see how the European competitions go next week, if we continue to see flair ups various places. 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Razcal said:

Stating COVID-19 has the same mortality rate as the seasonal flu is flat out false. Spreading false information does not help anyone anywhere.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

 

That being said, I think that this qualifying opportunity is better than the one that we would have been facing since El Salvador was gaming the system.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf

"The infection fatality rate (IFR), the probability of dying for a person who is infected, is one of the most critical and most contested features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic".

"Early data from China, adopted also by the World Health Organization (WHO), focused on a crude case fatality rate (CFR) of 3.4%; CFR is the ratio of COVID-19 deaths divided by the number of documented cases, i.e. patients with symptoms who were tested and found to be PCRpositive for the virus"

"Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.40%".

 

Basically, the mortality rate was believed to be around 3-4% because they did not account for asymptomatic cases, but when they did they found the rate to be 0.4-0.02%, which is similar to the seasonal flu (as far as I know).

 

Note the Stanford Study comes from a collection of preprints and peer-reviewed serology studies from all over the world. The Columbia university study cited in national geographic is a single study in NYC that is NOT based on peer-review:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141689v1

"This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice".

 

I don't think you should be in a rush to tell me I am spreading false information. Clearly there is evidence to suggest the mortality rate for Covid-19 is extremely low. 

 

Edited by Obinna

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, narduch said:

Lol.

The point I'm trying to make is that the situation is fluid.

I don't have an issue with planning for games in October or November. But we need to be aware of the fact that there is a very high probability it is canceled 

I really dont think it's as fluid anymore. It is a bit and it's to be monitored. But honestly for a lot of people its turning to a bitof Cest la Vie at this point. People have digested the campaign of fear but now the facts and reality have played out. I think October November will be interesting months but clearly things are getting back to normal. The situation you've cited is an example of officials putting something in to place just to satisfy the letters to the editor crowd but it's all window dressing really

Edited by SpursFlu

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Returning to the topic at hand, Taylor Twellman posted this a couple of hours ago. Not much more than what we already know, but it's something. The only thing left to know now is what the preliminary rounds will look like

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1 minute ago, dnina10 said:

Returning to the topic at hand, Taylor Twellman posted this a couple of hours ago. Not much more than what we already know, but it's something. The only thing left to know now is what the preliminary rounds will look like

Well played. Let's get it going

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19 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I really dont think it's as fluid anymore. It is a bit and it's to be monitored. But honestly for a lot of people its turning to a bitof Cest la Vie at this point. People have digested the campaign of fear but now the facts and reality have played out. I think October November will be interesting months but clearly things are getting back to normal. The situation you've cited is an example of officials putting something in to place just to satisfy the letters to the editor crowd but it's all window dressing really

We're getting different information. Here I was thinking that numerous regions/countries/cities around the world were going back into lock-down after renewed outbreaks. 

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17 minutes ago, narduch said:

Still garbage with teams getting byes

All versions have byes in them.  We really won’t have a hard time coming out as one of the top 3 from the CONCACAF minnows setup whatever it is.  None of the teams outside the top 5 can really give us a run for our money I think.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Obinna said:

I don't think you should be in a rush to tell me I am spreading false information. Clearly there is evidence to suggest the mortality rate for Covid-19 is extremely low. 

Using numbers from China and making assumptions on numbers of asymptomatic infected. And still delivers higher numbers than Influenza. It really didn't provide a counter point at all.

 

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/25/E666

"The crude CFR in Canada was estimated at 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020. When we accounted for the survival interval, the adjusted CFR was 5.5% (CrI 4.9%–6.4%) (Figure 1B). However, when we considered the reporting rates of confirmed cases, we estimated a further adjusted CFR of 1.6% (CrI 0.7%–3.1%) on the same date by fitting a log-normal distribution to the simulated data points (Figure 1B). Our CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada: the US crude CFR was estimated at 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, and the adjusted CFR was 6.1% (CrI 5.4%–6.9%) (Figure 2B). For the range of reporting rates considered here, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.8% (CrI 0.8%–3.6%) on Apr. 20, 2020."

 

Quote

 

 

Edited by Razcal

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3 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

All versions have byes in them.  We really won’t have a hard time coming out as one of the top 3 from the CONCACAF minnows setup whatever it is.  None of the teams outside the top 5 can really give us a run for our money I think.

Sure byes can be expected, especially with odd team numbers and a wide level of teams.

However this format still sucks because thencut off for the bye is arbitrary.

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41 minutes ago, narduch said:

Still garbage with teams getting byes

I will ask them what you believe the format should have been

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Razcal said:

Using numbers from China and making assumptions on numbers of asymptomatic infected. And still delivers higher numbers than Influenza. It really didn't provide a counter point at all.

 

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/25/E666

"The crude CFR in Canada was estimated at 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020. When we accounted for the survival interval, the adjusted CFR was 5.5% (CrI 4.9%–6.4%) (Figure 1B). However, when we considered the reporting rates of confirmed cases, we estimated a further adjusted CFR of 1.6% (CrI 0.7%–3.1%) on the same date by fitting a log-normal distribution to the simulated data points (Figure 1B). Our CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada: the US crude CFR was estimated at 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, and the adjusted CFR was 6.1% (CrI 5.4%–6.9%) (Figure 2B). For the range of reporting rates considered here, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.8% (CrI 0.8%–3.6%) on Apr. 20, 2020."

 

 

You seem to have missed the point. You need to use IFA not CFR. 

Infection Fatality Rate is found to be 0.4% to 0.02%, which is similar to the seasonal flu.

Edited by Obinna

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21 minutes ago, narduch said:

Sure byes can be expected, especially with odd team numbers and a wide level of teams.

However this format still sucks because thencut off for the bye is arbitrary.

Yeah that is my complaint as well, but I don't see a better way in concacaf.

At least we have a solid chance at the final round. 

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2 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Isnt the flu .1%.  Wouldnt that be 2x to 4x a mortality rate than the flu, even using the lowest covid numbers you can find?  

I thought it was 0.04%, but a quick search shows a lot of articles citing 0.1%. One article says the seasonal flu is well below 0.1%. 

Even if we assume the seasonal flu to be 0.1%, covid-19 appears to have a fatality rate of 0.4% to 0.02%. So 4x higher on the high end and 5× lower on the low end. 

In other words, more or less the chance of you dying from covid-19 is the same as dying from the seasonal flu.

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I am not sure what folks are arguing re the flu.  Annual flu deaths in the US are estimated to be around 35,000.  The US death count due to COVID is 150,000 so far.  And I am using US numbers because large swathes of the population have ignored social distancing and masking policies so they approximate a "control" group with relatively weak interventions and public health restrictions.  Common sense says that makes COVID significantly more dangerous.  Whether it is due to the fatality rate or the transmission rate, the reality is that it has led to a substantially higher number of fatalities this year.  Throw in the emerging evidence of long term health impacts from COVID, and it seems silly to downplay the threat of COVID prior to the development of a vaccine.     

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