The Road to Qatar.

[Razcal]

6 minutes ago, Bdog said:

So basically we’ll just have to beat minnows then get past Haiti (or a minnow if they choke) to get in the octagon? 

Yes, easiest path we've had.. like ever? hah

[Obinna]

22 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

If you think the numbers are significantly skewed by COVID positive car crash victims I don’t think we are using the same standards of evidence.  I am also suspect if a single US official’s views being deemed persuasive when they have clearly allowed politics to sway their views on COVID. 

I say car crash victims to be facetious. You don't need to build a straw man around car crashes now lol.

My point is not that numbers are inflated, although they are if they are being reported in that way. It is not her view by the way, Dr. Ngozi Ezike was just describing their methodology.

Either way, the take away here is that science suggests the the death rate is in line with the seasonal flu. 

Regardless, beating a dead horse here. Moving on to soccer....

Edited July 27, 2020 by Obinna

[Razcal]

Just now, Obinna said:

I say car crash victims to be facetious. You don't need to build a straw man around car crashes now lol.

My point is not that numbers are inflated, although they are if they are being reported in that way. The take away here is that science suggests the the death rate is in line with the seasonal flu. 

Regardless, beating a dead horse here. Moving on to soccer....

CDC says IFR (If that's what you want to go with) current estimates are around 0.65%, WHO says 1%, both significantly higher than the seasonal flu.

But yeah, moving on.

[baulderdash77]

6 minutes ago, Bdog said:

So basically we’ll just have to beat minnows then get past Haiti (or a minnow if they choke) to get in the octagon? 

Yes.  4 match day’s against minnows then a win and your in against Haiti.

I know some may feel the top 5 getting byes is unfair but the CONCACAF nations league still has to finish prior to the Gold Cup.

In fact considering the 2021 Gold Cup, WCQ, 2022 WC and 2021/22 Nations League, there are no meaningless windows in the next couple years.

Canada should rocket up into the top 50 FIFA teams easily by the end of this cycle finally.

[archer21]

As I’ve said earlier, this is the best format that’s been proposed IMO. I still find it unfortunate that we can’t just put everyone in round 1. Could easily have just had 8 groups of 4/5, group winners go to Octagonal. Or 6 groups on 6 (1 group of 5) with top team and best 2 2nd place teams going to Octagonal. Overall this is ok though.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

 

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Razcal said:

CDC says IFR (If that's what you want to go with) current estimates are around 0.65%, WHO says 1%, both significantly higher than the seasonal flu.

But yeah, moving on.

The Stanford study took into account studies from all around the world. I believe in Japan it was 0.02%, which is way lower than the seasonal flu. Maybe the American's have a crap health care system so maybe that's why their fatalities are higher lol

One thing for sure is that different countries have different situations and that's going to make it very difficult to plan something such as world cup qualifying. It is just a logistic nightmare and I don't know how it gets sorted. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Obinna

[dnina10]

To all of those saying that it'll be six easy matches for Canada (or anyone else for that matter) to get to the Octagonal, let's hold our horses. We don't even know who will even be in our group yet. We don't know who will top Group E either. Nothing is a given, so let's take it with a grain of salt. Yes, Canada should win their group and qualify for the second round. Yes they should qualify for the Octagonal. However, nothing is for certain yet

[Ansem]

So....How about them Starting XI vs. Haiti

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Ansem

[Alex]

Surinam and Guatemala could be problematic in the first round. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Alex

[VinceA]

I'm very interested in how Suriname does. If they get even like 50% of their dual national targets they immediately become one of the better teams in CONCACAF.

5 minutes ago, Alex said:

Surinam and Guatemala could be problematic in the first round. 

 

[xabuep2]

It remains to know the answer to certain questions:

1.When will the draw take place.

2. Against which teams the 2 home and 2 away games will be played .

3. For being a pentagonal, 5 FIFA dates must be played in October and November, not 4 dates as reported

[Alex]

7 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

It remains to know the answer to certain questions:

1.When will the draw take place.

2. Against which teams the 2 home and 2 away games will be played .

3. For being a pentagonal, 5 FIFA dates must be played in October and November, not 4 dates as reported

August 14 is the draw and the only teams playing this fall are the lower seeds, not the top 5 

[El Hombre]

15 minutes ago, Obinna said:

I say car crash victims to be facetious. You don't need to build a straw man around car crashes now lol.

My point is not that numbers are inflated, although they are if they are being reported in that way. It is not her view by the way, Dr. Ngozi Ezike was just describing their methodology.

Either way, the take away here is that science suggests the the death rate is in line with the seasonal flu. 

Regardless, beating a dead horse here. Moving on to soccer....

I know you're all moving on from this and I'm not sure where this all started and not really interested in going back through it all, but one thing you need to understand about this is the politicization of Covid "death rates".  Looking at the numbers directly attributed to Covid can be misleading due to where you are getting your numbers and what their message is.

The solution is to look at "excess death" (or "excess mortality") rates which compare how many people die around this time of year to the same in past years, regardless of cause.  In a "normal" year, it follows the same pattern however this year is different.  It is clear that Covid is having a significantly high impact on this where some countries are (or were prior to quarantine measures being taken) experiencing 25% to 50% more deaths per week than you would normally see at the same time any other year.  This is the Covid affect.

To compare it to the seasonal flu is inaccurate.  A particularly bad case of the seasonal flu doesn't account for a spike where twice as many people died in Ecuador in April than what is seen every other year.

This information is widely available.  I urge you to seek it out.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

22 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

It remains to know the answer to certain questions:

1.When will the draw take place.

2. Against which teams the 2 home and 2 away games will be played .

3. For being a pentagonal, 5 FIFA dates must be played in October and November, not 4 dates as reported

The October window was extended by a day.  The UEFA teams have already scheduled 3 games in October

[Shway]

This is basically the nations league qualifiers all over again. I'm not mad, as we should have no problem advancing. The only thing that I am worried about, is that we don't have the opportunity to schedule some games against tougher competition before the Ocho happens. 

[archer21]

30 minutes ago, Alex said:

August 14 is the draw and the only teams playing this fall are the lower seeds, not the top 5 

Where did you see that August 14 is the draw? That’s a date to keep an eye on, it’s a pretty important draw for us. We’ll be favourites no matter what but there are some groups that would be near automatic.

I’d imagine the top seed will get a home match against the 2nd seeded team in the group. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by archer21

[dyslexic nam]

14 minutes ago, Shway said:

This is basically the nations league qualifiers all over again. I'm not mad, as we should have no problem advancing. The only thing that I am worried about, is that we don't have the opportunity to schedule some games against tougher competition before the Ocho happens. 

I don’t want to sound like a total CONCACAF fanboy, but under the circumstances I don’t know how we could have done better.  4 fairly straightforward games to get back into the groove, to let Herdman continue his OJT, and to strategically bring in a few young hotshots who are willing to sign up.   Then we (likely) have Haiti, a higher quality opponent that we can’t take lightly and who will force us to elevate our game, but who we should realistically get by.  Win that and we would have an octagonal that gives us high quality games against the best in CONCACAF.  Even if we don’t make it out of that, we would have the biggest series of meaningful, challenging games in a long long time.  Personally, I friggin’ love the format.  

Edited July 27, 2020 by dyslexic nam

[MtlMario]

I can't understand how this qualifying news is not on Canada Soccer's site?

[Obinna]

I don't see where it says we will play the winner of the Haiti group. 

I am confident we can beat Haiti in 2 legs, but not super confident. 

I know I shouldn't be picky about the format flaws, considering the circumstances, but we can technically play 2 qualifying games and get eliminated? That is pretty lame...

[archer21]

1 minute ago, Obinna said:

I don't see where it says we will play the winner of the Haiti group. 

I am confident we can beat Haiti in 2 legs, but not super confident. 

I know I shouldn't be picky about the format flaws, considering the circumstances, but we can technically play 2 qualifying games and get eliminated? That is pretty lame...

Winner of group B (our group) plays winner of group E (Haiti’s group)

[SkuseisLoose]

Kinda worried about drawing Guatemala, especially if we have to play them away. Wouldn’t be the first time we struggled against a weaker team in Central America.

[Obinna]

3 minutes ago, archer21 said:

Winner of group B (our group) plays winner of group E (Haiti’s group)

Thanks!

This format makes sense to me. It's actually pretty decent. The fact they predetermine we play Haiti is still weird, but maybe I am just complaining because I am kinda afraid to play them lol

[archer21]

1 minute ago, SkuseisLoose said:

Kinda worried about drawing Guatemala, especially if we have to play them away. Wouldn’t be the first time we struggled against a weaker team in Central America.

Yeah it’s a bit worrying that 1 slip up could end our chances but I’d assume we’d play the 2nd best team in our group at home. And if it is in Central America, it’ll likely be with no fans.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, archer21 said:

Yeah it’s a bit worrying that 1 slip up could end our chances but I’d assume we’d play the 2nd best team in our group at home. And if it is in Central America, it’ll likely be with no fans.

With countries treating the virus differently, I could see us playing them away in a full stadium and us playing them in an empty BMO. 😔

Edited July 27, 2020 by Obinna