Jayden Nelson

[Bertuzzi44]

3 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

...

Also, let's be real- Rosenborg is a step down from TFC, playing time be damned. Rosenborg has a terrible record in Europe, they haven't won their league in 4 seasons, the quality of his weekly competition will be weaker. It's just crazy to me that a huge club like TFC could take their second best prospect, someone the MLS acknowledged as a top 25 prospect in the league, and not find a club better than a club in Norway. Not a single club in Turkey, Belgium, Championship, Portugal, La Liga 2, Scotland, Greece, hell- even Sweden was interested in Jayden Nelson?...

Is it, though? I think Rosenborg could give TFC a good game.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Bertuzzi44

[El Hombre]

Rob Friend - Molde - Transferred to Eredivisie at 25 years old
Olivier Occean - Lillestrom - Transferred to German 3. Liga at 28 years old.
Sam Adekugbe - Valerenga - Transferred to Turkish League at 25 years old.
Tosaint Ricketts - Sandnes Ulf - Transferred to Turkish second division at 26 years old.
Patrice Bernier - Tromso - Transferred to German 2nd division at 27 years old.

Norway definitely could be a step into Europe for Nelson if he goes.  Only downside for me is it becomes more difficult to watch him play on a weekly basis.

[kacbru]

Football club rankings are always subjective, but for the sake of curiosity I looked it up...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/ 

180: Rosenberg

377: TFC

[Floortom]

Not sure why people are so upset about this. Rosenborg would be a perfectly acceptable club situation for Nelson. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Floortom

[Dominic94]

Looks like he will be signing for them, it’s disappointing and a drop from a player who looked like he belonged in MLS. But wait, 1 step backwards… 2 steps forwards ?

[Obinna]

4 minutes ago, Dominic94 said:

Looks like he will be signing for them, it’s disappointing and a drop from a player who looked like he belonged in MLS. But wait, 1 step backwards… 2 steps forwards ?

That's up to Nelson, but that aside yes. Very much a step back to take 2 forward. I like the move more I think of it. Toronto has a winning pedigree, but if we believe Nelson has tier one potential we should be happy for him to move on so that he can get there. How many players have Toronto exported to tier one environments? That's not a criticsm of TFC, just the reality. Now, how many players have Rosenberg exported to tier one environments? I bet it's a lot more than Toronto over the same time span. Point is, he can set himself up for such a career path with this move. He'll still compete for trophies and maybe play in Europa Conference League, and he'll likely be a 90 minute player, something he likely was not going to reliably get in Toronto. With the great season he had last year, I think now is the perfect timing for him to move on, with Rosenberg perhaps the perfect fit. Their TM value is around 16 million Euros, which is low level MLS or Liga MX, but Nelson alone is worth 4M, so I expect him to be a big signing for them and I expect him to play a ton of minutes. Again, it's down to Nelson and how hard he works, how well he plays and adjusts, etc.

[jordan]

19 minutes ago, Dominic94 said:

Looks like he will be signing for them, it’s disappointing and a drop from a player who looked like he belonged in MLS. But wait, 1 step backwards… 2 steps forwards ?

The way you talk about TFC all the time and then write step backwards when your dream of him leaving comes true. Lol

[Dominic94]

13 minutes ago, jordan said:

The way you talk about TFC all the time and then write step backwards when your dream of him leaving comes true. Lol

I see you’re having a bad morning. It’s ok, it might get better, might not. 

[Dominic94]

19 minutes ago, Obinna said:

That's up to Nelson, but that aside yes. Very much a step back to take 2 forward. I like the move more I think of it. Toronto has a winning pedigree, but if we believe Nelson has tier one potential we should be happy for him to move on so that he can get there. How many players have Toronto exported to tier one environments? That's not a criticsm of TFC, just the reality. Now, how many players have Rosenberg exported to tier one environments? I bet it's a lot more than Toronto over the same time span. Point is, he can set himself up for such a career path with this move. He'll still compete for trophies and maybe play in Europa Conference League, and he'll likely be a 90 minute player, something he likely was not going to reliably get in Toronto. With the great season he had last year, I think now is the perfect timing for him to move on, with Rosenberg perhaps the perfect fit. Their TM value is around 16 million Euros, which is low level MLS or Liga MX, but Nelson alone is worth 4M, so I expect him to be a big signing for them and I expect him to play a ton of minutes. Again, it's down to Nelson and how hard he works, how well he plays and adjusts, etc.

Important thing is that he plays, so I like that. I also like that TFC seems to be finally committing to a direction for both its youth and first team. I’m happy they aren’t holding him, killing his value and not playing him. I do hope they get a sell on. 

[Obinna]

3 minutes ago, Dominic94 said:

Important thing is that he plays, so I like that. I also like that TFC seems to be finally committing to a direction for both its youth and first team. I’m happy they aren’t holding him, killing his value and not playing him. I do hope they get a sell on. 

Then maybe you are not disappointed in that case? What was it that initially gave you disappointment? Perhaps it was because you were expecting a move like Anderlecht, who he trained with in the winter? Specifically on that, he'd be joining a bigger club than Rosenberg, and a better league than Norway, but his chances of playing wouldn't necessarily be better than at Toronto as they are also a strong club. At the same time, they are struggling to reclaim giant status, much like Basel and Rosenberg. Possibly they have struggled the most of the 3, so maybe Rosenberg is the better option. I think so anyway.

[Dominic94]

20 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Then maybe you are not disappointed in that case? What was it that initially gave you disappointment? Perhaps it was because you were expecting a move like Anderlecht, who he trained with in the winter? Specifically on that, he'd be joining a bigger club than Rosenberg, and a better league than Norway, but his chances of playing wouldn't necessarily be better than at Toronto as they are also a strong club. At the same time, they are struggling to reclaim giant status, much like Basel and Rosenberg. Possibly they have struggled the most of the 3, so maybe Rosenberg is the better option. I think so anyway.

I was hoping for a bigger club and better move, but he does need to play, and in a spot where he can be coached. I will say Bradley helped him, I saw lots of progress.

[Wasp]

Let's be honest - the earlier you can get to Europe as a young player, the better. This would be a great move for Nelson and I hope it goes through. Would it be better if a bigger club came knocking? Sure. But ultimately, what matters most is getting yourself to Europe as soon as possible if you have any kind of ambitions beyond the MLS.

[InglewoodJack]

15 hours ago, Bertuzzi44 said:

Is it, though? I think Rosenborg could give TFC a good game.

I mean, is the weekly competition in Norway better than MLS? I'm not sure. If we're worried about playing time, are there zero MLS teams interested in giving Nelson playing time, so much that he has to go to Norway? I'd be surprised. Players have transferred to better leagues from MLS- the same Sam Adekugbe who was mentioned here was first transferred to Brighton IIRC (Championship), Kone went to the Championship as well, Mihailovic to D1 Netherlands, etc.

I'll be the first to admit that I have euro bias and want all of our guys playing in Europe ASAP, but Norway isn't a strong league. The idea that this club can regain its dominant form and that will benefit Nelson doesn't make much sense to me- the hope is that he moves on to bigger and better things within 2 or so seasons, and this team isn't going to go from being ~mid to dominant in that time. This isn't Rosenborg circa 2016, and for a player who we hope spends a cup of coffee there before moving on, the club shouldn't be seen as such.

My main concern with this is that TFC seemed so intent on keeping him until that godfather offer comes their way, and the fact that they've decided that this is the best move they're gonna get for him seems bizarre to me. Hope if it goes through I'm proven wrong.

[jordan]

 

[Obinna]

2 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

The idea that this club can regain its dominant form and that will benefit Nelson doesn't make much sense to me- the hope is that he moves on to bigger and better things within 2 or so seasons, and this team isn't going to go from being ~mid to dominant in that time. This isn't Rosenborg circa 2016, and for a player who we hope spends a cup of coffee there before moving on, the club shouldn't be seen as such.

It depends on what you mean by dominant, I guess. I mean, they finished 3rd last year, 5th before that, and 4th the year before that. These are upper half finishes, nothing mid table about it. Of course, it's unrealistic to expect an "Invinsibles" type of campaign, where they run the table without losing, but I don't think it's unrealistic for them to win the league this season.

Nelson has the opportunity to play in a competitive environment where the team is chasing the title, isn't that a good thing? I don't get why you can't see how such an environment would benefit Nelson.

Here is how I see it - the scenario is basically the same at Toronto (should be fighting for silverware), but the difference is that the domestic level is lower, but his chances of playing is higher - as are his chances of getting scooped up by a better European team. Don't forget about Conference League, where he could have a direct audition against a potential suitor. 

12 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

My main concern with this is that TFC seemed so intent on keeping him until that godfather offer comes their way, and the fact that they've decided that this is the best move they're gonna get for him seems bizarre to me. Hope if it goes through I'm proven wrong.

I don't think it benefits Nelson for TFC to wait until the maximum offer comes around. Imagine of Montreal did that with Kone or Johnston? Toronto doesn't need to nickel and dime to squeeze the maximum profit from the situation. They are better off selling Nelson to Norway for a modest fee and then doing the same to Rutty. Get these guys out the door so the pipeline doesn't stagnate. They'll make a lot more money that way too, ironically. I prefer this to waiting too long and risking the players transfer value.

[Stryker911]

At first I wasn't thrillled with the level. However, I went through their transfer departures for the last decade and almost every year they sold 2 players in their early to mid 20s to a top 7 league. Rosenborg will be much more motivated to develop and sell him than TFC would be.

[InglewoodJack]

33 minutes ago, Obinna said:

It depends on what you mean by dominant, I guess. I mean, they finished 3rd last year, 5th before that, and 4th the year before that. These are upper half finishes, nothing mid table about it. Of course, it's unrealistic to expect an "Invinsibles" type of campaign, where they run the table without losing, but I don't think it's unrealistic for them to win the league this season.

Nelson has the opportunity to play in a competitive environment where the team is chasing the title, isn't that a good thing? I don't get why you can't see how such an environment would benefit Nelson.

Here is how I see it - the scenario is basically the same at Toronto (should be fighting for silverware), but the difference is that the domestic level is lower, but his chances of playing is higher - as are his chances of getting scooped up by a better European team. Don't forget about Conference League, where he could have a direct audition against a potential suitor. 

I don't think it benefits Nelson for TFC to wait until the maximum offer comes around. Imagine of Montreal did that with Kone or Johnston? Toronto doesn't need to nickel and dime to squeeze the maximum profit from the situation. They are better off selling Nelson to Norway for a modest fee and then doing the same to Rutty. Get these guys out the door so the pipeline doesn't stagnate. They'll make a lot more money that way too, ironically. I prefer this to waiting too long and risking the players transfer value.

Insofar as Norway is concerned, dominant means you win the league every year. Europa for them doesn't move me much, because they typically either lose their qualification game, or go oh-for in the group stage. That doesn't do much for Nelson's development if he's seeing the pitch in a 3-0 loss against some mid tier european team. Champions League would probably yield similar results, but at least there's the chance to audition for an elite team, like you said.

In terms of playing time, this is what I don't get- he started 25 of his 31 games last year, he averaged 64 minutes per game at his regular position, and I don't believe TFC has signed anyone who threatens those minutes significantly. I'd agree if this was JMR, but Nelson is a week in week out starter for a team chasing silverware and that counts a number of fancy imported players among their ranks.

I'd also agree about not waiting for the perfect offer if that wasn't what Toronto had been doing the last year or two, while other clubs were very interested. The Anderlecht links were very hot, but TFC wanted to wait. Now the offer is Norway, and it's the one you take? It's like if Montreal turned down Watford, Norwich, Sheffield last year, kept Kone another year, and then sold him to Malmo. It's like, fine, decent club and all, but you held out this long all so you can send him to what isn't even the best club that has approached you?

I am sympathetic to getting our players as far away from Toronto as possible, and Norway does provide a step to bigger things, but it's just so surprising to me that after all we've heard about him and how Toronto values him that there's not a single better club out there who wants him than Rosenborg.

[Unnamed Trialist]

Geez, had to read two pages to discover it is just a rumour and there is no offer detailed. No price indicated. 

At least wait to see what they are willing to pay before judging it a good move or not from a TFC perspective.

[dyslexic nam]

16 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

Insofar as Norway is concerned, dominant means you win the league every year. Europa for them doesn't move me much, because they typically either lose their qualification game, or go oh-for in the group stage. That doesn't do much for Nelson's development if he's seeing the pitch in a 3-0 loss against some mid tier european team. Champions League would probably yield similar results, but at least there's the chance to audition for an elite team, like you said.

In terms of playing time, this is what I don't get- he started 25 of his 31 games last year, he averaged 64 minutes per game at his regular position, and I don't believe TFC has signed anyone who threatens those minutes significantly. I'd agree if this was JMR, but Nelson is a week in week out starter for a team chasing silverware and that counts a number of fancy imported players among their ranks.

I'd also agree about not waiting for the perfect offer if that wasn't what Toronto had been doing the last year or two, while other clubs were very interested. The Anderlecht links were very hot, but TFC wanted to wait. Now the offer is Norway, and it's the one you take? It's like if Montreal turned down Watford, Norwich, Sheffield last year, kept Kone another year, and then sold him to Malmo. It's like, fine, decent club and all, but you held out this long all so you can send him to what isn't even the best club that has approached you?

I am sympathetic to getting our players as far away from Toronto as possible, and Norway does provide a step to bigger things, but it's just so surprising to me that after all we've heard about him and how Toronto values him that there's not a single better club out there who wants him than Rosenborg.

I would be fine if he stayed at TFC, but “chasing silverware” seems extremely generous.  Buying players doesn’t change the fact that TFC finished second last despite having the league’s highest payroll.  And in fact that probably warrants some serious questions about the quality of the coaching at the club - a big consideration for young players.  Even when you factor in the need for players to familiarize themselves with the system you can’t ignore the fact that they lost their last 5 games of the season.  

Don’t get me wrong - I enjoy MLS, watch a lot of TFC, and really like seeing the CanCon in the field.  But I have no idea where anyone would get the idea that TFC are chasing silverware or represent a big step up from a respectable albeit somewhat unexciting European team.   

If the move happens and Nelson doesn’t light it up in Norway, we will know that he isn’t currently exceeding that level of play.  It will de facto be an acceptable level for him to play.   And if he does excel, he will attract the attention of teams with deeper pockets and more pedigree.  Either way, I don’t see how this can be viewed as a big step down - especially considering what TFC did last season.  

[toontownman]

This is a great move. I'm sure everyone wanted higher but he will grow exponentially through the experience of playing in Norway... provided he gets minutes. 😃

It's a big name team with plenty of history. A good stepping stone to show if he is capable of higher.

[InglewoodJack]

32 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I would be fine if he stayed at TFC, but “chasing silverware” seems extremely generous.  Buying players doesn’t change the fact that TFC finished second last despite having the league’s highest payroll.  And in fact that probably warrants some serious questions about the quality of the coaching at the club - a big consideration for young players.  Even when you factor in the need for players to familiarize themselves with the system you can’t ignore the fact that they lost their last 5 games of the season.  

Don’t get me wrong - I enjoy MLS, watch a lot of TFC, and really like seeing the CanCon in the field.  But I have no idea where anyone would get the idea that TFC are chasing silverware or represent a big step up from a respectable albeit somewhat unexciting European team.   

If the move happens and Nelson doesn’t light it up in Norway, we will know that he isn’t currently exceeding that level of play.  It will de facto be an acceptable level for him to play.   And if he does excel, he will attract the attention of teams with deeper pockets and more pedigree.  Either way, I don’t see how this can be viewed as a big step down - especially considering what TFC did last season.  

I was using @Obinna's words when I said that they're chasing Silverware, but also in MLS, you have 7 teams that make the postseason, in Norway you effectively have 3 (Europe). TFC is "going for it" because they have a very expensive roster with good players who did not come to North America to pick up a paycheck on a bad team, but even if they don't come close to a title, they will likely (at least as likely as Rosenborg is to make Europe) make the playoffs, and at that point, is playing a Europa game against a team who will wash you that much better than an extra game against say, NYRB or Philly? Again, he's playing every week for TFC, so the playing time is there.

If he sucks or is unstoppable in Norway, we'll easily tell where he belongs, but my concern is that he's in between those two extremities- then what happens? Players are transferred younger and younger, and I'm concerned that the market for a 22 year old Jayden Nelson in Norway from a top 5/elite team is only going to be so hot. I look at a player like Tajon, a player who is very good, but not a world beater, but still has high upside- we're hearing vague rumours about Serie A, if the right players are sold at the right time, then they'll be interested in him. If that's the situation that Nelson is in, but in a weaker league, what are going to be his options? Belgium at 22, then hopefully France or Spain or somewhere at 25? That wouldn't be the worst scenario, but there's a lot of what ifs int here, and I would've hoped that he gets sent to a league in which he's able to directly get that big transfer, instead of adding another step in there.

[Obinna]

19 minutes ago, InglewoodJack said:

If he sucks or is unstoppable in Norway, we'll easily tell where he belongs, but my concern is that he's in between those two extremities- then what happens? Players are transferred younger and younger, and I'm concerned that the market for a 22 year old Jayden Nelson in Norway from a top 5/elite team is only going to be so hot. I look at a player like Tajon, a player who is very good, but not a world beater, but still has high upside- we're hearing vague rumours about Serie A, if the right players are sold at the right time, then they'll be interested in him. If that's the situation that Nelson is in, but in a weaker league, what are going to be his options? Belgium at 22, then hopefully France or Spain or somewhere at 25? That wouldn't be the worst scenario, but there's a lot of what ifs int here, and I would've hoped that he gets sent to a league in which he's able to directly get that big transfer, instead of adding another step in there.

I agree he is probably between these two extremes, but I am not concerned with this. He's 20 years old right now. If he can score a half dozen goals and grab a half dozen assists as a 21-year-old playing for a top side in Norway, that's pretty good for a debut season.

Let's look at the top young players from last season so that we can set proper expectations of Nelson (should the move happen):

Hugo Vetlesen - Wikipedia

22-year-old Norwegian who scored 16 goals from midfield and notched 7 assists for runners-up Bodo-Glimt. Earned his first international cap for Norway in 2022

David Datro Fofana - Wikipedia

20-year-old forward from Ivory Coast made his national team debut and earned 3 caps in 2022, off the back of scoring 15 goals for champions Molde. This was enough for Chelsea to buy him in the new year, where he's already made an EPL appearance. 

Casper Tengstedt - Wikipedia

22 year old Danish youth international scored a ridiculous 15 goals and 7 assists in 14 games in 2022 for Rosenberg and what appears to be a half-season of work with the 3rd place team. He was then sold to Benfica in the new year, where he's only played for the B team so far. 

Carlo Holse - Wikipedia

Another Danish youth international (and Rosenberg player) who provided 15 assists and 3 goals from right wing (potentially Nelson's spot). The 23-year-old previously played 27 games for FC Copenhagen and is now entering his fourth season in Norway.  

and finally for some North American flavour...

Sam Rogers (soccer) - Wikipedia

Ex-sounders youth product, born in 1999, just enjoyed a 6-goal season from centre back for Rosenberg. He earned his first cap for the USMNT this January versus Serbia in a 2-1 loss. 

 

So, there you have it. Considering Nelson has 4 Canada caps (and one goal) at age 20 for Canada, and 45 MLS matches under his belt, I think a 6 goal 6 assist season to start would be a good expectation for us to have, but probably won't be enough for a massive transfer to a club like Chelsea or Benfica. What this does show however that if he can play lights out, such clubs will come calling. 

[kacbru]

3 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

I'll be the first to admit that I have euro bias and want all of our guys playing in Europe ASAP, but Norway isn't a strong league. The idea that this club can regain its dominant form and that will benefit Nelson doesn't make much sense to me- the hope is that he moves on to bigger and better things within 2 or so seasons, and this team isn't going to go from being ~mid to dominant in that time. This isn't Rosenborg circa 2016, and for a player who we hope spends a cup of coffee there before moving on, the club shouldn't be seen as such.

This is a fair point in isolation.

But to have it in reference to TFC? This isn't TFC circa 2017.  It is a team that finished very near the bottom each of the last two seasons!

[narduch]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

in terms of playing time, this is what I don't get- he started 25 of his 31 games last year, he averaged 64 minutes per game at his regular position, and I don't believe TFC has signed anyone who threatens those minutes significantly. I'd agree if this was JMR, but Nelson is a week in week out starter for a team chasing silverware and t

Pretty sure he was not going to play much this year for TFC based on the direction the club is going.

[Bison44]

As per UT's point.  Is there any numbers being thrown around?  I dont know diddly do about Rosenberg, but if they are paying cash on the barrel, they must want him and plan to play him.  Which is a positive thing for Nelsens development, as norway isnt a league we should dismiss as below a fringe national team player.  Prob better to go to a situation like that than sit at some B side for a bigger club in a better league eh?  If he really has all this potential, go on a tear in Norway and then think about bigger moves.