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The math on qualification to League A & to the Gold Cup


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The math on qualification to League A (Top 6) and qualification to the Gold Cup (Top 10):

Have we qualified for the Gold Cup?

If we lose to French Guiana by a HUGE margin on matchday 4
-and Curaçao beat or draw  Antigua and Barbuda - Curaçao on 10 or 12 points
-Haiti vs Cuba doesn't end in a blowout for one team or the other (either both on 10 points or 9 points and good goal differential for one and 12 points and good goal differential for the other)
-Martinique draw or win vs Guadeloupe - Martinique on 10 or 12 points
-El Salvador beat Jamaica by many goals - both on 9 points good goal differential
-either Dominican Republic or Bermuda win their game (one team on 6 points, one team on 9 points)
-Saint Kitts and Nevis beat Suriname  by a good number of goals - Saint Kitts and Nevis on 9 points
-Nicaragua beat Barbados by a good number of goals - Nicaragua on 9 points
-Belize beat Guyana by a good number of goals - Belize on 9 points
-Montserrat beat the Cayman Islands by a good number of goals - Montserrat on 9 points

Curaçao
Haiti
Cuba
Martinique
El Salvador
Jamaica
Dominican Republic OR Bermuda (can't be both)
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Nicaragua
Belize
Montserrat
French Guiana
could all finish ahead of us.

Canada would be 13th (which I believe is the lowest we can finish now in theory).
This means we have NOT qualified for the Gold Cup as of right now.

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If we lose our final game against French Guiana, and stay on 9 points, can we still qualify for the Gold Cup?

If the loss were to be by a small margin, we could still be ahead of:
French Guiana
Montserrat
Dominican Republic OR Bermuda
Nicaragua
Belize
El Salvador (and possibly Jamaica)
Saint Kitts and Nevis
So yes, if fact, we will likely qualify for the Gold Cup, even with a loss to French Guiana.

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If we lose our final game against French Guiana, and stay on 9 points, can we still qualify for League A?
Also yes, although this is less likely but still very possible.

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Since no team is currently on 7 points, we qualify for League A and the Gold Cup with only a draw. We cannot finish worse than 6th place with a draw.

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@Blackdude do you want to check my logic on this one? 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_CONCACAF_Nations_League_qualifying

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I don't see anything wrong with that analysis. Though there'd have to be some very unlikely events to put us below 10th, even with a loss, given our goal differential. Though with a loss, 6th may be hard to get.

Our Tuesday game is literally the last game though. We may very well know our fate before kickoff. By Sunday most likely - only the Monday Aruba game effects us after that.

Well - here's to 4 months of waiting ...

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More or less this should be the situation going into our last game (going on home advantage and form in most cases and assuming 2-0 wins).

Any tied games would improve Canada's scenario.  Shows the importance of goal difference, especially if CONCACAF uses it for determining who is in Pot B.

 

Pos Country GP GD Pts Max Last Game
1 Curacao 4 23 12 12 vs. Antiqua barbados
2 Haiti 4 18 12 12 Cuba
3  Jamaica 4 13 12 12 vs El Slavador
4  Martinique 4 9 12 12 vs Guadaloupe
5  Canada 3 14 9    
6  Cuba 4 12 9 12 vs Haiti
7  Dominican Republic 4 9 9 9 Bermuda
8  Nicaragua 4 8 9 9 vs Barbados
9  Montserrat 4 4 9 9 vs Cayman islands
10  Suriname 4 6 7 7 Suriname
11  Belize 4 4 7 9 vs Guyana
12  Dominica 4 -2 7 7 Barbados
13  Bermuda 4 9 6 9 vs. Dominican Rep.
14  Saint Kitts and Nevis 4 9 6 9 vs Suriname
15  French Guiana 3 5 6    
16  El Salvador 4 3 6 9 Jamaica
17  Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Z) 4 -4 6 6 Bonaire
18  Turks and Caicos Islands (Z) 4 -16 6 6 British VI
19  Guyana 4 7 5 7 Belize
20  Saint Lucia 4 2 5 7 vs Aruba
21  Aruba 4 0 5 7 vs vs Saint Lucia
22  Barbados 4 -2 4 7 vs Dominica
23  Guadeloupe 4 -5 4 7 Martinique
24  Grenada (Z) 4 −9 4 6 vs Puerto Rica
25  Anguilla (Z) 4 -9 4 4 Us Virgin islands
26  Bonaire (Z) 4 −11 3 6 vs Saint Vincent &
      -11 3   vs British Virgin Islands
27  Antigua and Barbuda (Z) 4 -1 3 6 Curacao
28  Puerto Rico (Z) 4 −3 1 3 Grenada
29  Sint Maarten (Z) 4 −27 1 3 Saint martin
30  Saint Martin (Z) 4 −16 1 3 vs Sint Maarten
31  Cayman Islands (Z) 4 -9 1 4 Montserrat
32  Bahamas (Z) 4 -12 1 4 vs Dominica
33  British Virgin Islands (Z) 4 -11 0 6 Bonaire
      -11 0   Turks & Caicos
34  U.S. Virgin Islands (Z) 4 -18 0 3 Anguilla
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1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

If we finish top 2 in Nations League does it mean we're in Pot 2 (2nd group of 4) in the Gold Cup draw?  If so i think that would be important

Looking through the various Gold Cup announcements - there's no indication that is how it will work. But it's certainly a likely outcome.

They could also use the CONCACF ranking that they used for the Number 1 to 4 slots (which I assume they did to make sure the USA was in Pot 1, as they finished 5th in the Hex, so could have been pot 2).

I don't see the September CONCACAF ranking - it's November 1 now - which would also put us in Pot 2 https://www.concacaf.com/en/rankings/mens-national-team

 

22 minutes ago, MM3/MM2/MM said:

More or less this should be the situation going into our last game (going on home advantage and form in most cases and assuming 2-0 wins).

Any tied games would improve Canada's scenario.  Shows the importance of goal difference, especially if CONCACAF uses it for determining who is in Pot B.

That's an interesting simulation. Suggests we could likely still finish 5th or 6th in League A, with a loss. Heck, even a Canadian 5-0 defeat in March we would squeeze into 6th spot, as Dominican only has 5 away goals, and we have 9!

Though I wouldn't be surprised if based on recent performance, that St Kitts beats Suriname putting us in 6th before our match. I also wouldn't be surprised by a Cuba/Haiti draw putting us in 7th.

The final round of games are generally more balanced. There should be less blow-outs. I suppose Montserrat could blow out the Caymans - but we are already 12 points ahead of them on GD.
 

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9 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

If we finish top 2 in Nations League does it mean we're in Pot 2 (2nd group of 4) in the Gold Cup draw?  If so i think that would be important

Similar question: when the Nations league starts, how do they decide the 3 groups of 4 in League A?  Will there be a draw for that as well with 4 pots?  And, if so, does finishing in the top 3 in qualifying mean we're in pot 3?

 

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10 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

If we finish top 2 in Nations League does it mean we're in Pot 2 (2nd group of 4) in the Gold Cup draw?  If so i think that would be important

The pots would be determined based on the Concacaf Index, not placement in the qualifiers. The top four teams in the tournament have already been assigned to a group each based on their ranking, so if there's any seeding for the draw it would be based on rankings rather than placement in qualifying.

 

49 minutes ago, Addona said:

Similar question: when the Nations league starts, how do they decide the 3 groups of 4 in League A?  Will there be a draw for that as well with 4 pots?  And, if so, does finishing in the top 3 in qualifying mean we're in pot 3?

Every division in Nations League has four groups, so League A will be four groups of three. Seeding will be based on the Concacaf Index. So no, final placement in the qualifiers doesn't matter so long as we're somewhere in the top six.

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22 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

While I sometimes enjoy suspense, I would be fine with qualifying before we ever kick a ball on the final matchday.

I hate to break it to you, but it's incredibly unlikely that we qualify for League A without kicking a ball. That would require none of Bermuda, Saint Kitts, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, French Guiana, Belize, El Salvador, or Montserrat winning their final game. You'll probably have to settle for something more like, anything better than a 3-0 loss gets us in.

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49 minutes ago, Kent said:

I hate to break it to you, but it's incredibly unlikely that we qualify for League A without kicking a ball. That would require none of Bermuda, Saint Kitts, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, French Guiana, Belize, El Salvador, or Montserrat winning their final game. You'll probably have to settle for something more like, anything better than a 3-0 loss gets us in.

I will self medicate with rum and other legal substances to get me through.  

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  • 3 months later...

If Canada loses tomorrow by let's say 13 goals and we are on 9 points (+1 goal dif)

AND Bermuda beats the DR tomorrow AND Nicaragua beats Barbados tomorrow AND El Salvador beats Jamaica tonight we will finish 11th right?

 

So basically if Jamaica wins or draws tonight we qualify for the Gold Cup right?

With a result for Jamaica, El Salvador cannot reach 9 points so we can finish no lower than 10th? Is my math correct here?

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

If Canada loses tomorrow by let's say 13 goals and we are on 9 points (+1 goal dif)

AND Bermuda beats the DR tomorrow AND Nicaragua beats Barbados tomorrow AND El Salvador beats Jamaica tonight we will finish 11th right?

 

So basically if Jamaica wins or draws tonight we qualify for the Gold Cup right?

With a result for Jamaica, El Salvador cannot reach 9 points so we can finish no lower than 10th? Is my math correct here?

 

 

If we lose tomorrow by 13 goals French Guiana would also jump ahead of us. Actually they  "just" need to beat us 5-0 at home to do that as they would be plus 10 and we would be plus 9 and both on 9 points.

If El Salvador were to win tonight, Jamaica at minimum would drop to +10 goal differential and stay on 9 points, which is what we are at. Meaning that we'd have to lose 5-0 to finish below Jamaica (as I believe we hold the tie-breaker for most road goals unless Jamaica loses 4-3 tonight - Jamaica currently has 6 road goals, we have 9). El Salvador would jump to 9 points but unless they pummel Jamaica, will be far behind on goal differential in comparison to us unless we also manage to get pummelled at home. I think its unlikely that we would finish 11th because El Salvador would be ahead of us, as there's no way we are losing 13-0 (unless the players secretly hate Herdman so much that they deliberately throw the game).

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3 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

If we lose tomorrow by 13 goals French Guiana would also jump ahead of us. Actually they  "just" need to beat us 5-0 at home to do that as they would be plus 10 and we would be plus 9 and both on 9 points.

D'Oh! I forgot about French Guiana being ahead of us with a my hypothetical crazy result!

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IF Haiti - Cuba is a draw (which it very wel could be), we only need a win to qualify as #1 (which would give us advantages for the drawing of both NL and the Gold Cup). 

If Haiti wins with a single goal, we need to win with at least 4 goals to top them. Three would tie, but then they'd have a goal scored over us (the tiebreaker in that case). After that it's the away goals scored, which have solidly over them because of the US Virgin Isles game.

If Cuba wins we need to win with at least the same goal difference (and goals scored). So 0-2 and 2-0 would get us there. 

Looking at it, qualifying as #2 or #1 is a very likely possibility. Of course, if we don't beat French Guiana all this can be thrown out of the window (but we'd still qualify though). 

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3 hours ago, shamrock said:

IF Haiti - Cuba is a draw (which it very wel could be), we only need a win to qualify as #1 (which would give us advantages for the drawing of both NL and the Gold Cup). 

It's cute that you are assuming there will be a draw for the Gold Cup. From Wikipedia "The groups and match schedule will be revealed on 10 April 2019 in Los Angeles, California, United States."

As per usual, looks like the groups will be decided, rather than drawn. As for nations league, I doubt it goes as granular as positioning (like we would have a better draw if we finish 1st rather than 2nd). I didn't hear the Vic interview that Alex is referring to, but based on Alex's words that could (and probably does) mean the tiers of Nations League will determine pots for qualifying.

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The standings on Wikipedia have Curacao as already qualifying for League A. Technically speaking that's a bit premature isn't it? Currently they are in 2nd place. If Cuba and Haiti draw they move down to 4th place. If we draw or win they move down to 5th place. If Bermuda win by 10, they move down to 6th place. Then if Nicaragua wins by 15, Curacao move down to 7th. Incredibly unlikely results are needed, but it seems to me they haven't technically qualified for Group A yet. Or am I missing something?

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4 hours ago, Kent said:

The standings on Wikipedia have Curacao as already qualifying for League A. Technically speaking that's a bit premature isn't it? 

You are correct. Curacao might still slip out of the top 6. But Wikipedia also looks correct when I check https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_CONCACAF_Nations_League_qualifying#Standings - is there another page that's wrong? I don't see any recent edits.

That's one of the problems with Wikipedia - anyone can edit it. Though it's also it's strength!

Edit - oh, I see. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_CONCACAF_Nations_League#League_A is wrong ... I'll fix.

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