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Gold Cup 2019


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My hope for a while now was that we are better than our FIFA ranking within CONCACAF indicates. The rankings have us 8th in CONCACAF. It seems low, but when we look at what happened, all we can go off of is feeling rather than results. Martinique aren't FIFA ranked, so that game is thrown out the window. Mexico is ranked ahead of us, and beat us. They clearly still belong ahead of us and that was expected (realistically we are trying to pass the teams in the 3-7 range). We beat Cuba, but that was also expected. They are 23rd in CONCACAF according to current FIFA rankings. Then we lost to Haiti, who is ranked 11th.

So based on our wins and losses (ignoring margin of victory and that kind of stuff) if anything we are ranked too high. No doubt Curacao will pass us in the next rankings, and maybe Haiti too? Since the new system they don't have the ranking calculator anymore so I don't know.

The Nations League will be our next chance to show if we are better than our ranking, but we've got Cuba again and the US. Those teams aren't in that 3rd to 7th range I'd like to see us against. That's why I kind of wanted us to play Costa Rica rather than Haiti.

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3 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

They didn't look very good in the times I watched during the second half but hey, they didn't blow their lead and choke.

While that's true, that's in big part because Curacao's finishing was mostly woeful, which I don't really give any credit to the US for. 

I think the US was actually much more careless in volume, but we more than made up for it by making two mistakes of a far higher "quality".

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9 minutes ago, Macksam said:

Is this their best line up? I mean, I see Pulisic but I don’t follow their national team too closely.

Other than a couple of guys out with injury I'd say it was....John Brooks, Tyler Adams and then maybe Altidore up front would be the guys for sure would be in the lineup...Yedlin might slide in somewhere too as he's hurt also....I think Weah is better than Arriola and would probably be out there if he didnt prefer playing in the U-20 World Cup

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10 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

I think the US was actually much more careless in volume, but we more than made up for it by making two mistakes of a far higher "quality".

And blew a two goal lead in a game where, even after the cock up first goal, we still were in the drivers seat but then proceeded to self destruct.  

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59 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

And blew a two goal lead in a game where, even after the cock up first goal, we still were in the drivers seat but then proceeded to self destruct.  

Oh, I'm painfully aware of that. And all that in a game where we had twice as many chances, twice as much possession and won twice as many duels as our opponents. Despite our superiority, we found a way to lose.

My point though is that we have two games upcoming against the US and still from what I am seeing at the moment they are not looking impressive - and against opposition which is less formidable than Canada faced in their two losses at this tourney, so despite our self-inflicted wounds, I'm not shaking in my boots about our chances against them and I don't think our players should be either. They haven't played a team as good as or as in-form as Haiti yet in this tourney. They just got out-shot and out-possessed by Curacao at home, mustering only 2 shots on goal in total (one more than they managed against Jamaica at home prior to the Gold Cup). If they played like that against Haiti, there probably would have been no need for a Haitian comeback for the Haitians to win. As lifeless as Jamaica was today with their gift-wrapped PK to get the win, I put them as slight favourites to beat the US again. I think we should be cautiously optimistic about our chances against the US because the mistakes we made are more individual & correctable whereas the US team just seems lifeless under Berhalter and their whole playing system under him seems to be off, so there is much more to correct.

The caution of course is that Canada actually has to learn and correct their mistakes or the coach needs to make changes to the line-up correcting his own mistakes in the process. We'll see what Herdman is made of but I fully expect the players will be chomping at the bit to make amends and prevent something like this happening again and if we are to break our long streak of not winning games against big teams in our region, the US strike me as a pretty good candidate at the moment. Despite the gaffes against Haiti we ought not to be thinking that we can't get a result against the present US team even in the US. Quite frankly, if Herdman cannot get at least one win against the US in the nations league, then the CSA should seriously think about replacing him before WCQ. At some point he has to prove he can beat the top teams in the region and I'd rather not find out that he can't in WCQ.

If the US drastically improves in the next two games, then maybe I'll change my mind about our chances and expectations, but the US fanbase is very pessimistic about their team at the moment and with good reason.

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1 hour ago, Ansem said:

We're not the only one with problems it seems

But the big difference is that Canada has not qualified for the World Cup since it’s one and only appearance in 1986 and when was the last time Canada qualified for the Hex? The US yes didn’t qualify for the last World Cup but had qualified for every World Cup since 1990 and got out of their group in a few World Cups as well . So yes they may be having some problems now but have had some ok success making most of those World Cups since 1990 and advancing out of their groups a few times too. Canada in the other hand has only the one Gold Cup success to show for , so Canada is just continuing  with its history of problems it has had for what seems forever , it has no history of any type of success since 1986 and that Gold Cup win. Moreover, the US with all its problems is still in the semis , Canada as usual is going home !

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18 minutes ago, SoccMan said:

But the big difference is that Canada has not qualified for the World Cup since it’s one and only appearance in 1986 and when was the last time Canada qualified for the Hex? The US yes didn’t qualify for the last World Cup but had qualified for every World Cup since 1990 and got out of their group in a few World Cups as well . So yes they may be having some problems now but have had some ok success making most of those World Cups since 1990 and advancing out of their groups a few times too. Canada in the other hand has only the one Gold Cup success to show for , so Canada is just continuing  with its history of problems it has had for what seems forever , it has no history of any type of success since 1986 and that Gold Cup win. Moreover, the US with all its problems is still in the semis , Canada as usual is going home !

I'm talking as of today not back when I was 4

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1 minute ago, Ansem said:

I'm talking as of today not back when I was 4

But Canada is just continuing with its long history of futility, while the US at least has had some decent success up to it’s failure of not qualifying to Russia . Canada is just being Canada when it comes to the men’s program from the youth national teams to the full national team. That’s why this latest debacle is so frustrating and deflating to many because it’s just a continuation of a long history of futility.

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1 hour ago, SoccMan said:

But Canada is just continuing with its long history of futility, while the US at least has had some decent success up to it’s failure of not qualifying to Russia . Canada is just being Canada when it comes to the men’s program from the youth national teams to the full national team. That’s why this latest debacle is so frustrating and deflating to many because it’s just a continuation of a long history of futility.

What do you want to do?

Let the past define who you are and let it dominate your future or overcome it while learning from past mistakes?

I'm more interested in how we fix this and which mistakes to avoid and which players we call and where they play than going back to the 80s or San Pedro Sula.

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1 hour ago, Ansem said:

What do you want to do?

Let the past define who you are and let it dominate your future or overcome it while learning from past mistakes?

I'm more interested in how we fix this and which mistakes to avoid and which players we call and where they play than going back to the 80s or San Pedro Sula.

Problem is that we’ve been making so many mistakes and rarely correcting them.  After our Gold Cup success in 2000, you would’ve thought that would’ve ignited fire in Canadian players but no, we rode off the tailcoats of success, got knocked out of WCQ and rinse and repeat, until Stephen Hart took over, we got massacred 8-1.  That also should’ve raised alarm bells in the CSA and throughout Canada that we are heading downwards, but nothing again happened.  The media didn’t care and the CSA pretended that it never happened.  So we’re back to square one again after the Gold Cup loss and the circle of mediocrity continues to haunt us.  Out of all thr managers Canada has had, can’t you see a pattern that the CSA is hiring the cheapest candidates and they must work with local staff.  Any other place around the world and fhe coach would want his own staff on board, so we’re stuck with mediocre candidates and status quo.  If you disturb the status quo, like Zambrano tried to do, well, you get thrown under bus and fired.

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11 hours ago, nolbertos said:

Problem is that we’ve been making so many mistakes and rarely correcting them.  After our Gold Cup success in 2000, you would’ve thought that would’ve ignited fire in Canadian players but no, we rode off the tailcoats of success, got knocked out of WCQ and rinse and repeat, until Stephen Hart took over, we got massacred 8-1.  That also should’ve raised alarm bells in the CSA and throughout Canada that we are heading downwards, but nothing again happened.  The media didn’t care and the CSA pretended that it never happened.  So we’re back to square one again after the Gold Cup loss and the circle of mediocrity continues to haunt us.

What I'm about to say has always been unpopular but there was a generational gap in the interest of soccer in this country.

Exhibit A provides a glimpse... (right to left)

SN-HABITS-GENERATION.jpg

What's striking with this graph is the sharp decrease of interest in soccer (Double) by the Boomers which coincided with a sharp increase (double) of interest in Football and Baseball. When the boomers made for the majority of consumers, soccer was left behind into total indifference.  

The Gold Cup win was met with utter indifference and the subsequent Gold Cups + WCQ.

I'm considered to be a millennial and the first time I took a TRUE interest in following the national team was during the Brazil campaign which coincided with the Millennial entering that time where they have purchasing power and soccer interest was nearly doubled from the X and quadrupled the boomers while double the silent generation. Millennial and X had the internet / social media making it easier to get hooked to the sport by being able to follow it overseas.

You bet San Pedro Sula was devastating. I was absolutely CRUSHED as most believe we would have made the Hex and dreamed of Brazil. Guess what, I remember the outcry, outrage. The media covered it as this one was definitely not going to fly under the radar. It forced the CSA to somewhat change and we had Montagliani. I think that's about when they knew that operating without any accountability from soccer fans was over but at the same time, saw an opportunity to grow the interest in the sport in Canada, See graph below.

Further proof of that generational shift

image.jpg

I'm not saying that you're entirely wrong, but despite the CSA being flaw (very at some level), this isn't the same CSA anymore. I see the "willingness" to improve, perform and deliver results. The old CSA didn't care, they didn't have too and could just take their paychecks.

 

11 hours ago, nolbertos said:

Out of all thr managers Canada has had, can’t you see a pattern that the CSA is hiring the cheapest candidates and they must work with local staff.  Any other place around the world and fhe coach would want his own staff on board, so we’re stuck with mediocre candidates and status quo.  If you disturb the status quo, like Zambrano tried to do, well, you get thrown under bus and fired.

No, I don't like the manager hiring process that gave us Herdman but despite not liking it, people must take a breather and take 5 seconds to see the logic in their reasoning here.

Again, I don't like how this was done

1-There's a deadline here...it's 2026. You don't have the luxury of time to experiment. Whatever changes you want to bring to the national program, you have to get it right.

2-People forget that Zambrano hade no prior experience as a National coach. I don't doubt that his reforms might be the electrical shock that Canada needs, however, you don't have a track record of his proposals working elsewhere, nor a track record of him successfully guiding a national team to the promise land.  Like it, or hate it, Herdman had a track record with a better knowledge of the Canadian program. It came down to the devil you know. In Herdman, they had an idea of what they could expect while with Zambrano, they did not. 

3-Don't get me wrong, the best choice would have been an experienced manager with the track record of turning around a national program that has historically failed and doesn't have a domestic league to feed it's national team. Our context is somewhat unique and again like it or not, it was done on the women's side by Herdman. No, the man isn't a genius tactician, but he seems to know what he's doing in terms of bringing "structural changes" tailored to the Canadian reality, which, like it or not, you have to work with for the foreseeable future (provincial bodies etc...)

4-Bringing someone new, proposing drastic changes even if they are great ideas, has it shares of risks. The CSA seemingly wasn't willing to risk it with a 2026 deadline. If there was no World Cup in Canada, it's more doubtful Herdman gets the job but it is what it is.

5-We can't ignore that we have fundamentally a structural problem. Bringing Mourihno to coach the national team won't be effective if the program and pathway from youth level to senior level is all messed up. Fixing the structure increases the odds of getting a more steady flow of good players to chose from for the NT so as great players retires, another one is capable of taking over. Otherwise, we'll be riding this "golden" generation and once they leave, you're back to mediocrity... ask the Americans. Their golden guys have aged and retired and despite still being a good team, they lost that dominance aura.

Again, I don't support the hiring process but I make an effort to understand the logic behind it. That's why I think he got his long term contract. He will be mostly judged on his work as the National director in charge of fixing our structural problems which are many. I even think he'll survive a failed 2022 campaign as he hinted in press conference.

The goal seems to be to have a competitive squad for 2026 capable of winning at home and get us out of the group. If we can't do that with guys like Davies, David and Millar who will be in their prime, that would have meant that his plan to surround them with players capable of supporting them to that goal has been a failure. Guarantees he gets canned. Personally, a failed 2022 warrants him getting fire but I'm not convince it will be enough.

That's my toughts

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