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General - CONCACAF Nations League

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4 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

We should expect El Salvador to win both of their remaining 2 games, both are home games.  They should close this window with 1346 points.

If we win tomorrow, we will have 1356 points.  We'd be in total control of that last spot.

If we tie, we will have 1343 points.  We would need to pick up points in friendlies and win at least one game in the Nations League Finals in June, either the semi final or 3rd place game should be enough.

If we lose, we will have 1331 points.  A 15 point gap essentially eliminates us.  El Salvador would have to lose one of their games this week to keep us in contention.  If they lose one and we lose, we would be close to even on points, and friendlies in March and June will decide it.

Do you know how many points we'd get for beating Honduras or Costa Rica?

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6 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

Do you know how many points we'd get for beating Honduras or Costa Rica?

In the Nations League Semi or 3rd place?  It is the same importance coefficient as these group stage games, x25.  Depending on where everyone ends up points wise for June, I'd expect approximately 12-15 points against CR, and 7-10 against Honduras. 

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I'm expecting El Salvador to win their final 2 matches. That would give them 1346 points.

If we draw tomorrow, we would have 1344. Considering that El Salvador has no semi-final, final, or 3rd place match because they're in League B, I like that we'd be in the driver's seat (if we advance beyond the group stage) to pick up some more points at a high multiplier.

If Mexico gets the job done tomorrow over Panama, and if we get a result against the US, it could basically be a 2-way race for 6th between us and El Salvador.

Edited by jtpc

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4 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

Also, if we lose tomorrow by a 1 goal margin, the US will still have to beat Cuba by 2 goals to surpass our differential and win the group. 

So there's that.

Wish the game was actually in Cuba. 

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If Costa Rica does qualify, they’ll probably qualify as the 4th place team and have to play Mexico in the semis. That leaves Honduras to face Canada/USA at a neutral site probably in the states. 

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42 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

In the Nations League Semi or 3rd place?  It is the same importance coefficient as these group stage games, x25.  Depending on where everyone ends up points wise for June, I'd expect approximately 12-15 points against CR, and 7-10 against Honduras. 

Are you sure about that? The formula seems set up so that if you play a team with the same point ranking and win it is worth .5 times the match importance . So higher ranked teams are worth more than 12.5. Honduras should be up there too.

Edited by Redpunkfiddle

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For everyone assuming Panama will lose tomorrow, Panama is really good at home. For example, in the last hex they were undefeated at home including a 0-0 draw with Mexico.

So this means two things. Number 1, we can’t rule out the possibility that Panama gets a draw or even a win tomorrow and gains some points. Number 2, if we win tomorrow we have a good chance of being the top ranked team in the semi finals, and even with a draw we could still be number 1.

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5 minutes ago, Kent said:

For everyone assuming Panama will lose tomorrow, Panama is really good at home. For example, in the last hex they were undefeated at home including a 0-0 draw with Mexico.

So this means two things. Number 1, we can’t rule out the possibility that Panama gets a draw or even a win tomorrow and gains some points. Number 2, if we win tomorrow we have a good chance of being the top ranked team in the semi finals, and even with a draw we could still be number 1.

Panama also lost to Bermuda at home. Panama needs a win, that's why I would be shocked if they pull the 3 points.

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5 hours ago, Redpunkfiddle said:

Are you sure about that? The formula seems set up so that if you play a team with the same point ranking and win it is worth .5 times the match importance . So higher ranked teams are worth more than 12.5. Honduras should be up there too.

Curacao would have got 15.17 if they beat Costa Rica last night.  So if we can face them in the semi-finals, of course slightly depending on what happens and has happened, we probably would get slightly less because the points difference will be a little bit smaller.  If we played Honduras right now I believe the points would be around 13.25 for a win - as you say 12.5 for a equal ranked team.

7 hours ago, jtpc said:

If we draw tomorrow, we would have 1344. Considering that El Salvador has no semi-final, final, or 3rd place match because they're in League B, I like that we'd be in the driver's seat (if we advance beyond the group stage) to pick up some more points at a high multiplier.

Put it this way, 4 wins in 4 friendlies in March and June against hypothetical equal opponents would yield El Salvador 20 points (4x5) - tough but not impossible. (They could try and do stuff outside the windows as well, I suppose - 2.5 for a win). 

If we are about 10 points ahead after this window (ie we win vs the States, they win their two), we would need a win in 1 of the 2 games in June or a have a couple equal ranked friendly wins in March to be safe.   

If the window ends with us about 3 points behind El Salvador (ie we draw with the States and they win out) we probably need good friendlies in March and a least one win in June.

If we lose and they win out we are about 15 points behind and almost for sure in the same friendlies-only situation they are in.  We would have to take some huge gambles against big ranked opponents in March and June. 

 

Curacao have essentially eliminated themselves - even if we lose, they end the window 18-odd points behind us with no Finals. 

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11 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

We should bet it all and have a home and home friendly with El Salvador in March.  Then it’s not random matches and some real points on the line.  

I agree.  I've been thinking this is the best strategy.  Takes all the guesswork out of it.  Depending on how things shake out in a few days, El Salvador may be interested.

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1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I agree.  I've been thinking this is the best strategy.  Takes all the guesswork out of it.  Depending on how things shake out in a few days, El Salvador may be interested.

I really like that. If we can't get the better of El Salvador in a home and away, I can stomach not getting to the Hex. 

If we do get the better of them and make the Hex, we've also gained more valuable experience in Central America, which we can never get too much of.

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El Salvador would only do this if we gave them a boat load of money and maybe if the game was there. They know they can't beat us. Them playing here we would basically be paying them off.  Maybe they would be interested if they hosted

Edited by SpursFlu

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3 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

El Salvador would only do this if we gave them a boat load of money and maybe if the game was there. They know they can't beat us. Them playing here we would basically be paying them off.  Maybe they would be interested if they hosted

More likely played in the US. Promoters regularly pay them good appearance fees to play in LA, Houston and Washington DC.  They draw very well in those cities.

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16 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

More likely played in the US. Promoters regularly pay them good appearance fees to play in LA, Houston and Washington DC.  They draw very well in those cities.

Where they can have the home field advantage? No thanks.

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I feel like El Salvador would never agree to this, even with home field. Their best bet would be to play against teams overrated by the Fifa rankings i.e. UAE (if they don't pull out again) or China.

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9 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

I feel like El Salvador would never agree to this, even with home field. Their best bet would be to play against teams overrated by the Fifa rankings i.e. UAE (if they don't pull out again) or China.

I think it depends on how the results go this window. If we win tonight and they have a gap to make up, the best way would be to play us. They could win points and take points away from us at the same time. The proverbial 6-point swing, if you will...

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12 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

I feel like El Salvador would never agree to this, even with home field. Their best bet would be to play against teams overrated by the Fifa rankings i.e. UAE (if they don't pull out again) or China.

Beware China.. they're starting to nationalize Brazilians. Let the farce begin

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18 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

I feel like El Salvador would never agree to this, even with home field. Their best bet would be to play against teams overrated by the Fifa rankings i.e. UAE (if they don't pull out again) or China.

I think this would be my preferred option as well.  A home and away against ES might work out, but you are also one banana peel away from screwing yourself up.  

If we need points in these windows I would want CSA number crunchers really navigating a path forward that’s maximizes our chance of getting the points we need via opponent selection.   

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1 minute ago, SpursFlu said:

Beware China.. they're starting to nationalize Brazilians. Let the farce begin

I don't have a problem with it. Russia does it. It would be great if the CPL was quality enough that we could one day do the same. I guess this is a debate for a different time though. 

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