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29 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Yea, except we haven’t beat a team better than French Guiana.  I think Jamaica deserves some more respect I think they’re the 4th best team right now based off results and they have Leon Bailey on board.... 

and Bobby Reid, Daniel Johnson, Ravel Morrison.....

Our time is now to make a real statement in Concacaf, but other countries are getting stronger as well. 

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Cubans arriving in their hotel rooms  

El Salvador didnt get their FIFA points by magic.  They played friendlies and won games, including beating us in 2017, OZ's last match. They played 3 friendlies in 2018, and 4 friendlies this yea

(take long sigh, puts arm gently around shoulder of the new forum member) Son, you must not be from around these parts, amirite?

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Curacao temporarily moves ahead of us by 1 point, 1323 to 1322. What a shame Costa Rica didn't win as that would have taken Curacao down to 1310.

After our match with the US on Tuesday, we will either have 1339 (W), 1327 (D), or 1314 (L).

Assuming either Curacao (5 points with 1 match left) or Costa Rica (2 points with 2 matches left) win Group D, the maximum number of points either one can get is 8. We don't know how November will unfold, but that could be the lowest of all the group winners. If it is, it would rank the Group D winner 4th and it would put them in a semi-final with the 1st place group winner.

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Current rankings.  Curacao just leap frogged us.

MEX 1606
USA 1548

JAM 1438
CRC 1435
HON 1368
SLV 1331
--

CUR 1323

CAN 1322
PAN 1316
HAI 1281
TRI 1216

If El Salvador beats St. Lucia as expected, they will gain another 5 points = 1336

A tie against USA gets us 5 points = 1327.  As we know, a win gets us 17 points and moves us into 6th place = 1339. 

The only other possible monkey wrench is if Panama gets a result against Mexico.  A tie would be 6 points = 1322

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Maybe should start scheduling some damn friendlies instead of relying on other nations to drop points. Maybe be proactive for once.

Its insane that beating a minnow nets the same points as drawing the 20th ranked. But that's the game and so far Canada Soccer has done nothing to go on offense and win the 6th spot.

Edited by SirBobsaget
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26 minutes ago, jtpc said:

Curacao temporarily moves ahead of us by 1 point, 1323 to 1322. What a shame Costa Rica didn't win as that would have taken Curacao down to 1310.

 

When I did the formula I got Curacao up 1.724 pts (= 2 pts)  so tied with us at 1322. I'm using "I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions" in the formula and not "I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions".  Isn't this a group phase match?

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11 minutes ago, CanSuffer said:

When I did the formula I got Curacao up 1.724 pts (= 2 pts)  so tied with us at 1322. I'm using "I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions" in the formula and not "I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions".  Isn't this a group phase match?

It is I=25 because the games are also Gold Cup qualifiers.

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I agree format shite and I agree shite we've had 3 games in the last 6 months (Martinique, FG, T&T's 'closed door friendly'), all wins but counted for 0 Fifa points for us. 

All those games, including T&T friendly happened before the new format, so I can't hate on the CSA, especially cause we were top 6 in the now defunct CONCACAF rankings. 

Is what it is at this point, and I'm actually okay with only 1 game this window with so many points available vs the USA. I want more friendlies just like everyone else but this window, I am totally fine with the 1 game.

Once we get a result tomorrow, JH & the CSA will 100% crunch the #'s, maybe hire a Fifa point speacilist and we will start scheduling the appropriate friendlies. I'll believe it when it actually happens, but that's what I'm going with.

First things first, tomorrow is massive and that's the most important thing right now! 

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6 hours ago, Aird25 said:

This format is utter shite

So skimming through the Costa Rica-Curacao game, the pitch was poor but so was most every player.  (Keylor Navas's throws being CRs best offensive weapon says a lot), so one of those teams being well above us and one overtaking us in the qualification process would seem to make your point. 

That said, we lost to Haiti, who even with their improvement are not miles ahead of these teams I would say.  The format will reward us a quite a bit if we can show we have actually improved and beat the States at home.  It will not punish us that much if we lose away. 

 

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13 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

Current rankings.  Curacao just leap frogged us.

MEX 1606
USA 1548

JAM 1438
CRC 1435
HON 1368
SLV 1331
--

CUR 1323

CAN 1322
PAN 1316
HAI 1281
TRI 1216

If El Salvador beats St. Lucia as expected, they will gain another 5 points = 1336

A tie against USA gets us 5 points = 1327.  As we know, a win gets us 17 points and moves us into 6th place = 1339. 

The only other possible monkey wrench is if Panama gets a result against Mexico.  A tie would be 6 points = 1322

What happens if Canada would lose? How many points would we drop?

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13 hours ago, SirBobsaget said:

Maybe should start scheduling some damn friendlies instead of relying on other nations to drop points. Maybe be proactive for once.

Its insane that beating a minnow nets the same points as drawing the 20th ranked. But that's the game and so far Canada Soccer has done nothing to go on offense and win the 6th spot.

 

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You have to think to yourself? Does the Canmnt and staff want them to be in the top 6 for the hex in world cup qualifying or do they think that they would have a better chance qualifying through the 7 and higher mini tournament format. It is hard to be believe this that they have a better chance qualifying through the mini tournament but maybe they are just doing the bare minimum to win mandatory matches and qualify for the nations league and nations league finals but not gain a lot of fifa points by not playing friendlies which would might have a big enough impact to put them in the top 6. Probably not true but just a little conspiracy theory.

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Lets be clear on what results we need to make the Hexagonal.

For the sake of argument, assuming we win tomorrow (+17), and tie away in November (+5), we will have 1344 points.

If El Salvador beats Dom. Rep (+6) and Montserrat (+4) in November, they will have 1346 points.

In the March and June 2020 FIFA windows, El Salvador is likely to play four games in total.  If we assume all four are huge wins against good teams, that will likely give them 4 points per game at most, so by the close of the June window they might have up to 1362 points. 

If we play Honduras in the June 2020 Nations League Semi Final and beat them, that would be approximately 12 points for a total of 1356 points.  Not enough to catch El Salvador.

If we play and win two March 2020 friendlies against halfway decent teams, we might gain 6 points.  This, coupled with a big win against Honduras in June, would get us 1362 points.  Same as El Salvador.

In Conclusion (basically what we already knew):

- Anything less than a win and a tie against USA eliminates us from the Hex.

- At a minimum, we need to make the final of the Nations League to make the Hex.

- We need to play and win one friendly in November and two friendlies in March to make the Hex.

- Even if everything goes our way, this thing will be extremely close.

Edited by BrennanFan
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35 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

Lets be clear on what results we need to make the Hexagonal.

For the sake of argument, assuming we win tomorrow (+17), and tie away in November (+5), we will have 1344 points.

If El Salvador beats Dom. Rep (+6) and Montserrat (+4) in November, they will have 1346 points.

In the March and June 2020 FIFA windows, El Salvador is likely to play four games in total.  If we assume all four are huge wins against good teams, that will likely give them 4 points per game at most, so by the close of the June window they might have up to 1362 points. 

If we play Honduras in the June 2020 Nations League Semi Final and beat them, that would be approximately 12 points for a total of 1356 points.  Not enough to catch El Salvador.

If we play and win two March 2020 friendlies against halfway decent teams, we might gain 6 points.  This, coupled with a big win against Honduras in June, would get us 1362 points.  Same as El Salvador.

In Conclusion (basically what we already knew):

- Anything less than a win and a tie against USA eliminates us from the Hex.

- At a minimum, we need to make the final of the Nations League to make the Hex.

- We need to play and win one friendly in November and two friendlies in March to make the Hex.

- Even if everything goes our way, this thing will be extremely close.

Good summary

as I said a few pages back - even if we  win tomorrow - El Salvador Is still big favourites to make the Hex over us.

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If everything goes according to expectations but we all know that s*** happens.  Let’s get out and support the boys tomorrow and let the chips fall where they may.  Nothing is carved in Stone that if we tie tomorrow we are done.  We could head down to Orlando and win that game, and El Salvador is more than capable of dropping a winnable game. Allez Les Rouge!!

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The problem El Salvador has is that they're no good. If they play games against anyone decent that would earn them points, they'll lose. If they play terrible teams, it's almost worthless. I think they ll lose to DR, especially if DR can convince Mariano to play. I'm more worried about Curacao at this point. They'll probable at least the Costa Rica at home. And unlike El Salvadore, if they book friendlies in early 2020 they could actually win

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13 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

The problem El Salvador has is that they're no good. If they play games against anyone decent that would earn them points, they'll lose. If they play terrible teams, it's almost worthless. I think they ll lose to DR, especially if DR can convince Mariano to play. I'm more worried about Curacao at this point. They'll probable at least the Costa Rica at home. And unlike El Salvadore, if they book friendlies in early 2020 they could actually win

El Salvador has beaten Guatemala, Jamaica, Haiti and Curacao this year (hard to believe, I know).  They are at home both CNL games in November. 

Agree that Curacao is the favourite to win their home game against Costa Rica in November and collect 15 big points.  That would make them group winners as well.  With a friendly win they could be at 1341 points. 

Wouldn't it be interesting if we played Curacao for all the marbles in the Nations League Semi Finals.

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1 hour ago, SkuseisLoose said:

You gotta feel for turks and caicos islands who are playing pointless matches for nations league as they can't gain a single point in the fifa rankings due to who's in their group and won't be promoted because guadeloupe **** the bed during qualifying.

Not really, FIFA rankings mean basically nothing to them aside from pride; it's not like they had even the remotest chance of reaching top six in CONCACAF. These matches actually mean quite a lot for a nation that has played the overwhelming majority of its competitive matches in preliminary playoffs, especially since these matches actually present the possibility of promotion and a much more tangible route to the Gold Cup.

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18 minutes ago, Zem said:

Not really, FIFA rankings mean basically nothing to them aside from pride; it's not like they had even the remotest chance of reaching top six in CONCACAF. These matches actually mean quite a lot for a nation that has played the overwhelming majority of its competitive matches in preliminary playoffs, especially since these matches actually present the possibility of promotion and a much more tangible route to the Gold Cup.

Yah obviously they weren’t getting the hex but I bet they’d like to have a better than 200 ranking. I also thought they’d be one of the teams to go up after a win and draw in qualifying but they got drawn against Guadeloupe who should really have gotten league B who were also the only other team who qualified to league c with 4 points.

Edited by SkuseisLoose
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St V&G just beat Suriname 1-0 after a quickly taken free kick that caught the defence asleep.  

It is a lot of fun watching these countries duke it out.  It may not be the sort of thing that draws in a ton of subscribers, but the CNL coverage really adds a lot of extra value to OneSoccer IMO.  

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6 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

Lets be clear on what results we need to make the Hexagonal.

For the sake of argument, assuming we win tomorrow (+17), and tie away in November (+5), we will have 1344 points.

If El Salvador beats Dom. Rep (+6) and Montserrat (+4) in November, they will have 1346 points.

In the March and June 2020 FIFA windows, El Salvador is likely to play four games in total.  If we assume all four are huge wins against good teams, that will likely give them 4 points per game at most, so by the close of the June window they might have up to 1362 points. 

If we play Honduras in the June 2020 Nations League Semi Final and beat them, that would be approximately 12 points for a total of 1356 points.  Not enough to catch El Salvador.

If we play and win two March 2020 friendlies against halfway decent teams, we might gain 6 points.  This, coupled with a big win against Honduras in June, would get us 1362 points.  Same as El Salvador.

In Conclusion (basically what we already knew):

- Anything less than a win and a tie against USA eliminates us from the Hex.

- At a minimum, we need to make the final of the Nations League to make the Hex.

- We need to play and win one friendly in November and two friendlies in March to make the Hex.

- Even if everything goes our way, this thing will be extremely close.

If we play Honduras and beat them in the semi final, they would lose points also. They can't take points from Martinique either. Is there a chance we catch Honduras (friendlies aside)?

Also, anyone know the tie-breaker if teams are tied for FIFA points (ridiculous, but possible nonetheless)?

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