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General - CONCACAF Nations League

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6 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

Is anyone surprised with how bad Nicaragua has been lately. Obviously they’re not world beaters but you’d think they’d wouldn’t be getting smashed by Suriname.

That was a suspicious scoreline...

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The one good thing about this is finishing 2nd in every group means something. I believe 2nd in group A is auto qual to the Gold Cup

Good on Bermuda and thank you again.

Edited by apbsmith

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8 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

Is anyone surprised with how bad Nicaragua has been lately. Obviously they’re not world beaters but you’d think they’d wouldn’t be getting smashed by Suriname.

It's interesting because if I have the lineup right, Suriname is playing with a largely domestic squad. I would expect these results with an overseas team full of guys on lower league Dutch teams.

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El Salvador begins a stretch of 3 straight Nations League games on the road, so maybe they will have a draw or a loss somewhere between tomorrow's match in the Dominican Republic and the end of the October window. In Nations League qualifying, if it wasn't for El Salvador scoring on the last kick of the match, Montserrat would have earned a draw with them at home. Montserrat plays El Salvador at home on October 12th.

I still can't believe Bermuda won 2-0 in Panama last night. It's nice to know that Panama has basically been pulled back to where we are points-wise. If we could ever win our group, whether that might come from a home win against the US and a draw away, or 2 draws with the US but a higher goal differential, the potential could be there to really rack up the points. We know El Salvador won't have any post-group stage matches since they're in Group B. As long as Mexico does their job twice against Panama, Panama wouldn't have any post-group stage matches either. Win your group in League A, and it seems like you're guaranteed 2 more matches, a semi and either the final or the 3rd place match. Let's go CanMNT! 😃

 

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2 hours ago, jtpc said:

El Salvador begins a stretch of 3 straight Nations League games on the road, so maybe they will have a draw or a loss somewhere between tomorrow's match in the Dominican Republic and the end of the October window. In Nations League qualifying, if it wasn't for El Salvador scoring on the last kick of the match, Montserrat would have earned a draw with them at home. Montserrat plays El Salvador at home on October 12th.

I still can't believe Bermuda won 2-0 in Panama last night. It's nice to know that Panama has basically been pulled back to where we are points-wise. If we could ever win our group, whether that might come from a home win against the US and a draw away, or 2 draws with the US but a higher goal differential, the potential could be there to really rack up the points. We know El Salvador won't have any post-group stage matches since they're in Group B. As long as Mexico does their job twice against Panama, Panama wouldn't have any post-group stage matches either. Win your group in League A, and it seems like you're guaranteed 2 more matches, a semi and either the final or the 3rd place match. Let's go CanMNT! 😃

 

Tom Marshall of ESPN has been indicating Mexico will field an experimental side in the Nations League.  Hopefully not as experimental as the youth team that laid down for Honduras 3 years ago, costing us a place in the hex.

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15 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

If we beat Cuba, and El Salvador beats Dominican Rep, at the end of this window the rankings will be:

6) El Salvador 1352

7) Canada 1321

8 ) Panama 1315

Where does Curaçao factor in? Weren't they nipping at our heels? 

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7 minutes ago, king1010 said:

Where does Curaçao factor in? Weren't they nipping at our heels? 

I believe after their win against Haiti they are also at 1321 (give or take a point, because rounding).

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Current Rankings as Per a Big Soccer thread:

MEX 1608 (+4)
USA 1544 (-4)
CRC 1442 (-3)
JAM 1431 (+6)
HON 1352 (+2)
SLV 1347 (+5)
--
CUR 1321 (+12) [+2]
CAN 1317 (+5)
PAN 1316 (-15) [-2]
HAI 1276 (-12)
TRI 1226
ATG 1130 (-6)

Another win against Cuba tomorrow is worth 5 points for us. 

A Haiti win drops Curacao 13 points and gains Haiti 13 points.

A Curacao win gives Curacao another 11 points and drops Haiti 11 points.

El Salvador should gain another few points beating Dom. Rep and Honduras should lose a few after losing a friendly to Chile tomorrow.

Bottom line, after this window, we will still be 30 points out of a Hex spot.

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I have a bad feeling that Curacao is going to sneak into 6th.  They've convinced 4 more young Dutch players to join the cause this window including Leandro Bacuna's younger brother Juninho Bacuna of Huddersfield, and former Dutch youth international Nigel Robertha of Levski Sofia.  They looked strong against Haiti and they have opportunities against Panama (friendly) and Costa Rica next month.   

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1 hour ago, BrennanFan said:

Current Rankings as Per a Big Soccer thread:

MEX 1608 (+4)
USA 1544 (-4)
CRC 1442 (-3)
JAM 1431 (+6)
HON 1352 (+2)
SLV 1347 (+5)
--
CUR 1321 (+12) [+2]
CAN 1317 (+5)
PAN 1316 (-15) [-2]
HAI 1276 (-12)
TRI 1226
ATG 1130 (-6)

Another win against Cuba tomorrow is worth 5 points for us. 

A Haiti win drops Curacao 13 points and gains Haiti 13 points.

A Curacao win gives Curacao another 11 points and drops Haiti 11 points.

El Salvador should gain another few points beating Dom. Rep and Honduras should lose a few after losing a friendly to Chile tomorrow.

Bottom line, after this window, we will still be 30 points out of a Hex spot.

Where are you getting the point spread from everything I see shows if

Haiti wins they will get 8.01 which will take them from 1280.80 to 1288.81

and if Curacao wins they will get 6.99 points taking them from 1316.20 to 1323.19. 

If Canada wins we will go from 1314.99 to 1317.93 as we would get 2.94 points for the win

im getting my info from the live fifa rankings that updates daily.

El Salvador if they beat the Dominican Republic they will go from 1344.95 to 1348.27 as they will get 3.32 points for the win .

Edited by Daryn27

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1 minute ago, Daryn27 said:

Where are you getting the point spread from everything I see shows if

Haiti wins they will get 8.01 which will take them from 1280.80 to 1288.81

and if Curacao wins they will get 6.99 points taking them from 1316.20 to 1323.19. 

If Canada wins we will go from 1314.99 to 1317.93 as we would get 2.94 points for the win

im getting my info from the live fifa rankings that updates daily.

FIFA Rankings has the wrong coefficients. It's 25 and not 15. 

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2 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

Where are you getting the point spread from everything I see shows if

Haiti wins they will get 8.01 which will take them from 1280.80 to 1288.81

and if Curacao wins they will get 6.99 points taking them from 1316.20 to 1323.19. 

If Canada wins we will go from 1314.99 to 1317.93 as we would get 2.94 points for the win

im getting my info from the live fifa rankings that updates daily.

The importance coefficient for these matches changed so last minute many sites have not updated it yet. 

The above is based on x15 importance coefficient.  Now it's x25. 

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2 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

FIFA Rankings has the wrong coefficients. It's 25 and not 15. 

Yes I just saw that at the top of the page sounds good thanks.

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Telfer has scored his first goal for T&T currently 2-2 vs Martinique.  He looks like he's going to be a star for them, which is good for CPL I guess.

Very little passion from T&T, I mean I know they're laid back but after the first goal you would think they had scored a 7-0 in a friendly.

Obviously I hope we go all out for the Hex but I really won't be bothered if we don't make it.  I think we'll run through the rest of CONCACAF and then give us Jamaica or Honduras in a 2 leg tie.  What more can you ask for?  I don't think we could realistically finish 3rd in the Hex.

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11 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Telfer has scored his first goal for T&T currently 2-2 vs Martinique.  He looks like he's going to be a star for them, which is good for CPL I guess.

Very little passion from T&T, I mean I know they're laid back but after the first goal you would think they had scored a 7-0 in a friendly.

Obviously I hope we go all out for the Hex but I really won't be bothered if we don't make it.  I think we'll run through the rest of CONCACAF and then give us Jamaica or Honduras in a 2 leg tie.  What more can you ask for?  I don't think we could realistically finish 3rd in the Hex.

The only thing is we’d be playing for half a spot. If Concacaf is drawn against South America i want no part of that. If Concacaf is drawn against Oceania, well then now missing the hex doesnt seem so bad. 

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If we are talking ease of qualification, it's 6 and 1, half-dozen the other.

If we can't get past Haiti, T&T, and/or possibly Panama/Curacao in a two-legged tie, then we don't deserve to be in the world cup. I am comfortable with the margin of error considering our quality.

So going that route, I would at least expect to face Honduras/Jamaica in another two-legged tie. Arguably tougher, perhaps slightly, but I think any team coming from this route will have momentum on their side.

Perhaps we should be careful what we wish for. I think the most dangerous thing would be to finish fourth in the Hex, which is right about where we should be on paper, right?

I absolutely do not want that scenario. It will be very difficult psychologically to miss out on automatic qualification and have to play against the team from the lower route, who will undoubtedly have a chip on their shoulder, not to mention the experience gained from going through that high pressure gauntlet of two-legged ties.

Now, do I want to be in the Hex? Yes of course! I want to play Mexico and USA and Costa Rica and I think we can take points off all these teams. I think we are good enough to qualify the old fashioned way. 

But it could go very wrong in the Hex. I worry about finishing fourth. Points dropped here, points dropped there, it could go sideways in a hurry. Look at the USA last cycle...they lost 4-0 to Costa Rica early and were playing catch up the rest of the way.

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