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Sébastien

General - CONCACAF Nations League

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OK, I've looked up the worst case scenario for us. This is what it looks like.

-Canada lose by 5
-Haiti v Cuba - tie (or a non-blowout win for one of them)
-Curacao, Jamaica, and Martinique draw or win (or a non-blowout loss for Curacao and/or Jamaica)
-Bermuda beats Dominican Republic or Dominican Republic wins by 3
-St. Kitts wins
-Nicaragua wins by 4, Belize by 6, Montserrat by 8

If all of that happens (or if Canada loses by more than 5 you can knock a goal off the win margins for the other teams) we finish in 12th.

Correction: I see now from @Olympique_de_Marseille's thread that if we lose by more, specifically 8 goals or more, then El Salvador can also pass us and still have Jamaica stay ahead of us, given the right scoreline. So 13th is the worst case scenario.

Happy scenario. If we draw, or of course win, we are in the top 6, guaranteed.

Edited by Kent

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Basically 14 Teams battling for 10 Spots at the Gold Cup 2019, with of course League A & League B on the line 

Scenarios and Games of each  (Predictions) 

Round 4 

Monserrat VS Cayman Islands | Monserrat Win - 9pts total 

St Kitts and Nevis VS Suriname | St Kitts Win - 9pts total  

Martinique ?? VS Guadalupe ?? | Martinique Win - 12pts total 

Nicaragua ?? VS Barbados ??  | Nicaragua Win - 9pts

Dominican Republic ?? VS Bermuda ?? | DR Win - 9pts

↪️ Bermuda ends with 6pts

Curacao ?? VS Antigua and Barbuda ??  | Curaçao Win - 12 pts 

Canada ?? VS French Guiana ?? | Canada Win -  12 points 

↪️ FG ends with 6pts

Belize ?? vs Guyana ?? | Draw 

↪️ BZE ends with 7pts and GU ends with 5pts -> Both eliminated 

50/50 (Either can win) 

Haiti ?? (9pts) vs Cuba ?? (9pts)

Jamaica ?? (9pts) vs El Salvador ?? (6pts) ___________________________________

Haven’t even mentioned Goal Differencial!! How important it will be 

 

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On 11/23/2018 at 7:02 AM, rob.notenboom said:

Possibly announcing Vancouver as the March CNL game location?

 

 

I mean, for my convenience this would be nice, but I'm a little surprised they'd be coming back to Vancouver so soon after the World Cup fiasco.  I guess weather dictates it's one of the few viable venues and Victoria (much as I'd like to see these types of games pushed in to the CPL markets) might be that extra step too far to get the players from Europe to (from both a cost and flight perspective).

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40 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I mean, for my convenience this would be nice, but I'm a little surprised they'd be coming back to Vancouver so soon after the World Cup fiasco.  I guess weather dictates it's one of the few viable venues and Victoria (much as I'd like to see these types of games pushed in to the CPL markets) might be that extra step too far to get the players from Europe to (from both a cost and flight perspective).

What was the world cup fiasco? Thought vancouver presented itself pretty well? 

BMO is re sodding which could have played a part in the decisioon. 

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The CONCACAF Disciplinary Committee has ruled that Barbados fielded ineligible players in their first 2 CNLQ matches against Guyana and El Salvador.

It seems like it wouldn't be CONCACAF without some kind of ineligible player drama. ? *sigh* (Malouda and the 2017 Gold Cup)

Wikipedia cites that Barbados had not completed a request with FIFA to change the association of 2 former England youth internationals, Hallam Hope and Krystian Pearce.

El Salvador had won 3-0 anyway, but the Guyana match that was originally a draw is now a 3-0 victory for them. With 6 points and a goal differential of +10, Guyana really puts themselves into GC consideration (and maybe even a League A spot) with their final match at home to Belize.

Edited by jtpc

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On 11/21/2018 at 11:15 PM, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Some good stories in the press on Montserrat.  They're pursuing a guy on the books of Manchester United who has two brothers on the books with Arsenal.  The latter two are England youth internationals.

 

The older brother at Man Utd is actually the lesser of the 3.

Chris was one of the top Arsenal youth prospects but decided to try a different route signing a 5 year contract with Benfica. 

Joe the youngest at 19 already has 12 Arsenal caps. 

If all 3 decided to declare for Montserrat it would make for a really interesting experiment.

 

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Interesting to see that according to Wikipedia, 5 other matches next month have also changed their dates. Even though we're playing on March 24th, our match will be on the final day of qualifying, like it was when it was originally scheduled for the 26th. Could be advantageous in terms of knowing exactly what we'll need re: goal differential, if finishing qualifying in a specific position in the top 6 matters.

Curacao's match has been moved to the day before ours. Jamaica is also playing on the 23rd. The Haiti/Cuba match is the same day as ours, March 24th.

Edited by jtpc

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Posted (edited)

Draw to be held March 27 for pots.

Rankings within leagues to be done as per CONCACAF Nov 2018 rankings according to the following report:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2019/03/06/concacaf-nations-league-draw-be-held-later-month

edit - CONCACAF's article:
https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/2019-concacaf-nations-league-draw-to-take-place-march-27

Edited by ardsa

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So if the countries who end up qualifying for League A are put into pots based on the November 2018 CONCACAF rankings, where you finish in the top 6 to qualify for League A then doesn't matter.

If the pots were based on the top 6 in qualifying as of today, I guess they would look like this. November 2018 CONCACAF ranking in brackets: 

Pot 1 - Mexico (1), USA (2), Costa Rica (3), Honduras (4)
Pot 2 - Panama (5), Jamaica (6), Canada (7), Haiti (10)
Pot 3 - Trinidad and Tobago (11), Martinique (12), Cuba (13), Curaçao (15)

Seems a bit odd (crazy?) that the country that might win qualifying could be in the weakest pot as the lowest seed, but hey, this is CONCACAF. ?

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Posted (edited)

So right now...

League A

Pot 1: Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras 

Pot 2: Panama, Jamaica, Canada, Haiti

Pot 3: Trinidad & Tabago, Martinique, Cuba, Curaçao 

Edit: @jtpc beat me to it.

Edited by BuzzAndSting

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Posted (edited)

So Guatemala gets a free pass into League C after being suspended?

Edit: meant League C (changed)

Edited by Raven

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5 minutes ago, Raven1555362272 said:

So Guatemala gets a free pass into Group C after being suspended?

They go into League C, which is the lowest of the three leagues. They'll get to play the likes of Bonaire, Sint Maarten and US Virgin Islands.

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1 hour ago, RS said:

They go into League C, which is the lowest of the three leagues. They'll get to play the likes of Bonaire, Sint Maarten and US Virgin Islands.

I’m guessing the lack of competition would hamper their WCQs performance, even if a second round of the nations league takes place

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15 hours ago, canta15 said:

I’m guessing the lack of competition would hamper their WCQs performance, even if a second round of the nations league takes place

But it will give them a lot of opportunity to test out guys outside of their normal pool to see if they have any diamonds in the rough.  Especially younger players.

Granted, I'd still rather be us in our position.

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Disappointing for whoever is drawn into Guatemala's group. A true League C team is now going to miss out on a promotion opportunity.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, jtpc said:

Disappointing for whoever is drawn into Guatemala's group. A true League C team is now going to miss out on a promotion opportunity.

It is disappointing, but i’d rather Guatamala be placed in League C than be rewarded for their poor decisions

Edited by canta15

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On 3/6/2019 at 7:52 PM, jtpc said:

So if the countries who end up qualifying for League A are put into pots based on the November 2018 CONCACAF rankings, where you finish in the top 6 to qualify for League A then doesn't matter.

If the pots were based on the top 6 in qualifying as of today, I guess they would look like this. November 2018 CONCACAF ranking in brackets: 

Pot 1 - Mexico (1), USA (2), Costa Rica (3), Honduras (4)
Pot 2 - Panama (5), Jamaica (6), Canada (7), Haiti (10)
Pot 3 - Trinidad and Tobago (11), Martinique (12), Cuba (13), Curaçao (15)

Seems a bit odd (crazy?) that the country that might win qualifying could be in the weakest pot as the lowest seed, but hey, this is CONCACAF. ?

I think it's consistent with the World Cup. Seedings and pots are based on ranking there, not qualifying performance. Same with the Euro Cup as well. It's based on their UEFA coefficients, not based on qualifying performance.

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On 3/6/2019 at 7:52 PM, jtpc said:

So if the countries who end up qualifying for League A are put into pots based on the November 2018 CONCACAF rankings, where you finish in the top 6 to qualify for League A then doesn't matter.

If the pots were based on the top 6 in qualifying as of today, I guess they would look like this. November 2018 CONCACAF ranking in brackets: 

Pot 1 - Mexico (1), USA (2), Costa Rica (3), Honduras (4)
Pot 2 - Panama (5), Jamaica (6), Canada (7), Haiti (10)
Pot 3 - Trinidad and Tobago (11), Martinique (12), Cuba (13), Curaçao (15)

Based on these rankings. My mock draw  (dont judge me) has Canada in group 2.

Group 1: Honduras, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago

Group 2: Costa Rica, Canada, Curaçao 

Group 3: USA, Jamaica, Cuba

Group 4: Mexico, Panama, Martinique 

This would be a favourable/ideal draw for us to win the group. 

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