Kent Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 With the 2018 CCL campaign, CONCACAF announced a new seeding formula they are using called the CONCACAF Club Index. It's easy enough to calculate that a second-rate nerd like me can do it pretty easily. I'll try to update the current numbers as games happen (likely update the numbers the day after games) so we can track where the different slots are at. The way it works is that you get a point for a draw, 3 points for a win, 1 point for advancing for each round, 2 points for winning the final, and 4 points for participating, and the points are kept for 5 years. If the 4 points for participating seems odd I am speculating that it's because they will use the same index for seeding the CONCACAF league but won't include the participation points (or maybe only 1 participation point or something). Then potentially there can be promotion and relegation between the two tournaments, which means if Canada gets another spot if/when CPL starts up, it could start in the CONCACAF League and if/when results are good enough could potentially be promoted to CCL (and maybe earn a 3rd spot at some point). Below is the table provided by CONCACAF before the 2018 CCL, the updated table (by me), and my best guess for the CONCACAF League table (but it is hard to determine which slots certain teams were playing in, in past CCL campaigns). Before the 2018 CCL (a pretty chart because I took it from wikipedia) Pot Rank Slot 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 Total Team Pot 1 1 MEX3 11 29 32 23 15 110 América 2 MEX1 16 22 11 33 27 109 UANL 3 MEX2 27 10 16 20 30 103 Guadalajara 4 MEX4 35 29 9 18 10 101 Tijuana 5 USA3 16 11 13 16 20 76 New York Red Bulls 6 CAN1 10 10 23 8 22 73 Toronto FC 7 USA1 20 17 11 14 11 73 Seattle Sounders FC 8 USA2 22 13 9 13 14 71 FC Dallas Pot 2 9 USA4 11 16 20 16 8 71 Colorado Rapids 10 CRC1 16 19 12 10 8 65 Saprissa 11 CRC2 11 10 18 9 14 62 Herediano (wildcard) 12 HON1 9 11 15 10 11 56 Motagua 13 PAN1 4 15 4 10 20 53 Tauro 14 SLV1 4 8 4 7 9 32 Santa Tecla 15 CCC1 5 5 4 8 5 27 Cibao 16 SCL1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Olimpia After most recent results (an ugly chart cause I'm just pasting from my spreadsheet and I suck at pretty) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2018 Total MEX3 29 32 23 15 17 116 MEX1 22 11 33 27 12 105 MEX2 10 16 20 30 25 101 CAN1 10 23 8 22 21 84 USA3 11 13 16 20 17 77 MEX4 29 9 18 10 9 75 USA4 16 20 16 8 5 65 USA1 17 11 14 11 11 64 PAN1 15 4 10 20 8 57 CRC2 10 18 9 14 5 56 USA2 13 9 13 14 7 56 CRC1 19 12 10 8 5 54 HON1 11 15 10 11 5 52 SLV1 8 4 7 9 7 35 CCC1 5 4 8 5 4 26 SCL1 0 0 0 0 5 5 And before anyone asks, CCC1 is the spot for Caribbean teams, and SCL1 is for CONCACAF League champions. I am going to assume the SCL1 spot will be exempt from relegation, if/when they introduce pro/rel between tournaments.The year that is dropping off for Canada was a poor year, so we look likely to maintain or possibly improve on our score. 3 of the American teams have good years dropping off so they will have to do well to maintain their scores. CONCACAF League spots (my best estimate, but it is hard to determine which slots certain teams were playing in, in past CCL campaigns) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017 Total PAN2 7 8 10 8 12 45 SLV2 11 5 6 5 10 37 HON2 4 8 11 11 0 34 CRC3 8 23 0 0 0 31 CFU2 4 10 7 5 0 26 NCA1 5 6 4 6 3 24 CRC4 0 0 0 0 22 22 HON4 0 0 0 0 21 21 CFU3 4 4 5 4 3 20 PAN3 0 0 0 0 10 10 NCA2 0 0 0 0 8 8 PAN4 0 0 0 0 7 7 SLV3 0 0 0 0 7 7 BLZ1 0 0 0 4 0 4 HON3 0 0 0 0 0 0 CFU4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: In the CCL table the Caribbean spot is called CCC, but in the CONCACAF League table they are called CFU. I'm just copying the names from wikipedia. Maybe in the 2018 edition it will show that the names have been changed to CCC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 Updated my original post with last nights results. PAN1 (Tauro) broke the tie with CRC1 (Saprissa) and USA2 (Dallas) with their win over Dallas, coupled with Saprissa's loss to Club America. Tonight's matchups are SCL1 (Olimpia) vs USA3 (NYRB) SLV1 (Santa Tecla) vs USA1 (Seattle) CCC1 (Cibao) vs MEX2 (Guadalajara) USA3 can break it's tie with USA4, but that's it in terms of seeding changes possible with tonight's matches. Important match for USA1 though, since they are in the last spot for pot 1 of the draw, and only 1 point ahead of CRC2 and PAN1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 Updated my original post with last nights results. With Seattle's loss, USA1 is still only 1 point clear (of the new green line I've added to indicate the two pots that get drawn against each other). It will be interesting to see what happens if USA1 falls below that green line. Would the MLS Cup winners be in the lower seeded pot and the US Open Cup champions be in the top pot? Or would USSF get to decide that now the USA1 spot is given to the US Open Cup champs (as an example). I guess it's similar in UEFA (I think) where they use rankings for each individual club, so a team could finish higher in the league but be in a lower pot than the teams from their own league due to their coefficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 OK, I got excited and I did my best estimation for the CCI (CONCACAF Club Index) for the spots that were used in last years CONCACAF League and updated my original post. I assumed the same scoring system as what was outlined for the CCL, with the exception of not giving out any participation points. Note that Guatemala is excluded but once they are let back in to the CONCACAF party they do have some historical results that would garner them points. If the CCL was over today, and if there was pro/rel, and pro/rel was determined just by straight up points and excluded the CONCACAF League champions spot, 2 teams would move up and 2 would drop down. SLV1 and CCC1 would go down, and SLV2 and PAN2 would go up. Looking at that as a possibility (SLV2 leapfrogging SLV1) I have to assume that the national federations would be able to say they want their top prize winner to go into the highest seeded spot if they so desire. How messed up would it be if there was a case where two teams were in a Cup final, with the winner going to the CONCACAF League and the loser going to the CONCACAF Champions League. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rintaran Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Great job Kent. Please keep this up. If it pans out as you suspect, I may be able to use this to determine multipliers in order to better set the CL and CCL elo rating spots for NSXI. Only an opening round in, and I'm already very dissatisfied with using the average of the CAN/US sides. I knew I would be, but really didn't have much to use (that was easily accessible) in order to weigh them better. I look forward to seeing how this all pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Updated with last nights results. HON1, CRC2, and USA4 are all knocked out of the tournament, so their points are confirmed for the 2019 draw. It should be noted that CRC2 is actually a wildcard spot due to Guatemala being sanctioned by CONCACAF and unable to participate this year. So if Guatemala is back in action next year that CRC2 spot might be removed, even though it's almost in the top pot. Tonight the big game in regards to the index is Tauro vs Dallas. If Tauro can win they will ensure USA2 will be in the bottom half of the index, and they will at least temporarily jump over USA1 into the top half of the index. It would then be up to Seattle to get USA1 back into the top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rintaran Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Another interesting note from yesterday's matches: all 3 eliminated teams gained 5 points, and all 3 advancing teams managed 9. I wonder if that'll carry through, or if we can expect something a little crazier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Rintaran said: Another interesting note from yesterday's matches: all 3 eliminated teams gained 5 points, and all 3 advancing teams managed 9. I wonder if that'll carry through, or if we can expect something a little crazier. Still a bit of time left, but Chivas/Cibao look like they will buck that trend. Dallas/Tauro will match the 5/9 combo if the score holds for the last 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Updated OP with last nights results. PAN1 has moved into a tie with USA1 for the last Pot A spot. The 8th and 9th seeded teams were tied for this years draw but I didn't see anything stating how CONCACAF broke the tie, so I don't know who is actually occupying that 8th spot right now. USA1 has a chance to pull ahead if Seattle can get at least a draw tonight. Of course if Seattle only gets a draw they will be eliminated and won't be able to earn any more points, while Tauro can still win points for PAN1 in the next round, although it would be against a tough Club America side. The other spots playing tonight (SLV1, SCL1, USA3) are all firmly in either the top half or the bottom half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 Updated OP with last nights results. The first round is done. USA1 got some separation between them and PAN1 for the 8th and final pot A slot thanks to Seattle's 4-0 win over Santa Tecla. With 7 of the 8 remaining teams already in Pot A it looks like we are pretty much set for next year's draw. Tauro would need to upset America and have Chivas sweep aside Seattle to be able to get PAN1 in (and USA1 out of) the top 8. It should also be noted that Canada is within striking distance of passing the MEX4 spot, which doesn't actually matter at all but it would be a nice little feather in the cap if TFC can make up the 3 point gap over Tijuana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masster Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/2/2018 at 5:42 AM, Kent said: Updated OP with last nights results. The first round is done. USA1 got some separation between them and PAN1 for the 8th and final pot A slot thanks to Seattle's 4-0 win over Santa Tecla. With 7 of the 8 remaining teams already in Pot A it looks like we are pretty much set for next year's draw. Tauro would need to upset America and have Chivas sweep aside Seattle to be able to get PAN1 in (and USA1 out of) the top 8. It should also be noted that Canada is within striking distance of passing the MEX4 spot, which doesn't actually matter at all but it would be a nice little feather in the cap if TFC can make up the 3 point gap over Tijuana. Thanks for tracking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 OK. Sorry for not updating yesterday. I was busy, sick, and otherwise preoccupied with the CONCACAF Nations League draw/info. I've updated the last two nights of results. No changes in positioning except that CAN1 has now drawn level with MEX4. Note that MEX4 had 29 points in the first year of the 5 year period and CAN1 only had 10, so that means even if CAN1 doesn't pass MEX4 this year, there is a good chance it will next year after those points drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I wish the CCL draw was predetermined based on seeding (I think they do this in Copa Libertadores) Like, #1 team plays vs. #16. That would give the index a lot more meaning. I Right now all that matters is staying above the #8 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackdude Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Lennon said: I wish the CCL draw was predetermined based on seeding (I think they do this in Copa Libertadores) Like, #1 team plays vs. #16. That would give the index a lot more meaning. I Right now all that matters is staying above the #8 spot. I disagree mainly because in Copa Lib, teams play a group stage before they get their seeding. So, it's based on what the team actually did over 6 matches, not what multiple teams did over a 5 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 It also doesn’t make sense to do that for at least a few more years because the spot for the CONCACAF League champion is a new spot, so is artificially low due to a lack of results for every year before this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 A quick primer for tonight's games. It is possible that by the end of the night both CAN1 and USA3 will be ahead of MEX4. Currently USA3 is 3 points behind CAN1 and MEX4. NYRB is the USA3 team and Tijuana is the MEX4 team, so a win by NYRB would give them 3 points plus a point for advancing which would propel them ahead. CAN1 is obviously TFC so if they collect more points from their match tonight against Tigres than Tijuana does from their match with NYRB then CAN1 will pass MEX4. So tonight could be the end of the 4 Mexican teams holding the top 4 spots. Will it happen? Or will Mexico start to reassert their dominance with a couple of big wins to overturn their first leg losses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 So the scenarios I outlined yesterday happened. NYRB won their game giving them 3 points plus an additional point for moving on. TFC get a point for moving on, so since Tijuana didn't get any points, that moved CAN1 ahead of MEX4 as well. Not much can happen tonight in terms of movement. USA1 can surpass USA4 if Seattle gets a draw or better, or could draw even if they advance on the away goals rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Updated the original post with last nights results. We are down to the final 4, all of which are in the top 5 for club index. So as the tournament gets more exciting the changes in the index get less exciting The only thing that could really happen in this round is either USA3 (NYRB) or CAN1 (TFC) could pull ahead of the other, but they are both firmly in the top 8 so that doesn't actually matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 Updated with last night's massive win for TFC. Puts a bit of separation with USA3 and MEX4, but if NYRB pull off an away win tonight USA3 will be back level with CAN1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted April 5, 2018 Author Share Posted April 5, 2018 Updated OP with last night's win for Chivas over NYRB. With that result CAN1 and USA3 cannot catch MEX2 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 Updated OP with last night's results. Chivas (MEX2) vs TFC (CAN1) in the final. So pumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
to70 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 really appreciate your effort with this table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 Updated with TFC's loss to Chivas from last night. It widened the gap between the Canada spot and the 3rd Mexican spot. I also made it a bit clearer that the CONCACAF League table is my best guess, it could have errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obinna Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 I am glad someone is updating this. Great work! Question: who are US-1? MLS champs I assume? What about US-2? Supporter shield? Is USOC US-3? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kent Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Obinna said: I am glad someone is updating this. Great work! Question: who are US-1? MLS champs I assume? What about US-2? Supporter shield? Is USOC US-3? Thanks! USA1 = MLS Cup USA2 = Supporters Shield USA3 = was MLS Cup runner up, since 2014-15 CCL season it is the non-Supporters Shield conference winner in regular season USA4 = US Open Cup champs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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