CPL/L1C - Division II - Pro/Rel discussion

[Unnamed Trialist]

11 hours ago, CPLinsider said:

It would have to depend on how many teams you would like to promote/relegate every season.

Hypothetically speaking, if a CPL 2 were to get off the ground next year, I think you wouldn't see any pro/rel until at least 2024/25, and only 1 team moving each way until the CPL can get to 12+ teams.

So you are effectively saying that with a closed 2-tier pro-releg model, you'd have up to 24 teams that could handle CPL D1 and could survive in CPL D2? Because as soon as you do that, you have to consider that possibility: you don't kill off Forge forever if they unexpectedly drop to D2, and you do not overextend Thunder Bay if they miraculously find themselves in the D1.

Probably you'd have to create a unified business model, and introduce what you see in England, where the teams dropping have partial continuity in tv revenue so that relegation is not so brusque, obliging you to remake the entire roster.

I personally think the way they are investing, they are not at all prepared for the risk involved of relegating. And many lower tier owners will not be entirely ready to handle the cost increases involved in promoting. All I can imagine is that if a D1 team falters, another in the D2 will be ready to step up and apply for the spot, the standard North American model.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[brianjc]

And do we really have 24 markets to create a closed 2 tier league?  After you leave the big cities, there is not really at lot of room for growth.  And can smaller to medium sized markets withstand the costs of coast to coast travel?

[SthMelbRed]

28 minutes ago, brianjc said:

And do we really have 24 markets to create a closed 2 tier league?  After you leave the big cities, there is not really at lot of room for growth.  And can smaller to medium sized markets withstand the costs of coast to coast travel?

Quit making sense. You'll trigger the fantasist weirdos who truly believe that Bella Coola FC will one day rise from the 4th division to challenge TFC for the CanPL title and Royal Flin Flon SC will have a magical cup run, beating Cavalry, Atletico Ottawa, and the Whitecaps en route to becoming the first 6th tier side to appear in a Voyageurs' Cup final.

[Watchmen]

19 hours ago, CPLinsider said:

It would have to depend on how many teams you would like to promote/relegate every season.

Hypothetically speaking, if a CPL 2 were to get off the ground next year, I think you wouldn't see any pro/rel until at least 2024/25, and only 1 team moving each way until the CPL can get to 12+ teams.

There are 8 teams in the CPL. There's is a 0% chance a CPL 2 gets off the ground next year. None.

[Watchmen]

22 hours ago, brianjc said:

But how many teams would be in each tier, if this were to be the case?

There are currently complaints about seeing the same team too often in a 7/8 team set up, even though the complaints are of the "we understand why this is the case, we just can't wait to get more teams involved." So I would think the absolute minimum number of teams you could have in each division is 10 each, 20 overall. I do not think this is a sustainable number.

[Stanley]

On 1/23/2021 at 11:49 AM, CPLinsider said:

Pro/rel is going to be very difficult as well, as not all teams have their own grounds,....
 

I think it's more of most of those listed don't have their own grounds.

[Aird25]

6 hours ago, brianjc said:

And do we really have 24 markets to create a closed 2 tier league?  After you leave the big cities, there is not really at lot of room for growth.  And can smaller to medium sized markets withstand the costs of coast to coast travel?

The money needed for a CPL club isn’t that large. We can still expand. We need to stop projecting interest based on cities that have MLS, MLB, NBA, NHL, CFL etc. to places that have none of those

[Bison44]

Money needed may not be that big, but if they have to start from scratch, with no stadium it will be a tall order.  How many of the smaller markets have decent places to play??  If there were a nice grounds in saskatoon ready to go, I'm sure the ownership group would already have a team in there.  Winnipeg has a team in good part because there is a stadium there, that was begging for another team to move in and to help fill it up all summer.  

[SthMelbRed]

6 hours ago, Aird25 said:

The money needed for a CPL club isn’t that large. We can still expand. We need to stop projecting interest based on cities that have MLS, MLB, NBA, NHL, CFL etc. to places that have none of those

How about we not worry about places that necessarily have teams in other pro leagues and just look at places that have the first hope in hell of drawing enough paying fans to be financially viable. You might find that there's only about 4-8 remaining markets which have an outside chance of surviving in a fully pro league. There's a reason why most reasonable people don't seriously look past a single national league with no more than 12-16 teams.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

13 hours ago, Watchmen said:

There are 8 teams in the CPL. There's is a 0% chance a CPL 2 gets off the ground next year. None.

By way of a fact check with no further follow ups, it's not even clear that the people that were behind the D2 plan that was circulating pre-COVID are actually linked to CPL. The spin at the time was more that would be D2 clubs were taking the initiative and doing it for themselves:

https://lastwordonsports.com/soccer/2019/12/23/a-tier-two-canadian-soccer-league-could-be-born/

The part mentioned in the link above about an MLS angle may be out of date now because the focus in that context seems to have shifted over to using MLS Next and developing a MLS reserve league with a U-23 format rather than being involved with any Canada only league format:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MLS_Next

https://kennethrusso.com/2020/10/14/mls-to-create-new-reserve-league-starting-in-2021/

Edited January 25, 2021 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[narduch]

I like the Australian model for their 2nd Division. Its actually a Regional League and at the end they have a tournament for an overall Champion. Some of those Regional Leagues have Promotion/Relegation too.

I think that's the best model for Canada's 2nd tier.

I also don't think its a bad thing if CPL is only ever 10 or 12 teams. Some of the best soccer nations in the World have small 1st Divisions. Croatia for example is only a 10 team league.

[brianjc]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

I also don't think its a bad thing if CPL is only ever 10 or 12 teams. Some of the best soccer nations in the World have small 1st Divisions. Croatia for example is only a 10 team league.

Actually when the establishment of a Canadian national league for soccer was being studied by Duane Rockerbie (Univ of Lethbridge economics professor) he said such a league(which would become the CPL) could only support 10 to 12 teams.

Just a thought.

[SthMelbRed]

6 hours ago, brianjc said:

Actually when the establishment of a Canadian national league for soccer was being studied by Duane Rockerbie (Univ of Lethbridge economics professor) he said such a league(which would become the CPL) could only support 10 to 12 teams.

Just a thought.

My personal position hasn't shifted. I think 3 MLS teams, 12 CanPL teams, and a nationwide network of 4-6 high-level amateur/semi-pro regional leagues is the Canadian football sweet spot. Promotion and relegation would actually be a detriment to finding that ideal place.

[Club Linesman]

There will be no pro/rel in the CPL.  Full stop.  
And frankly if by some hell freezing over type situation it happened, it would be to the detriment of Canadian development because no owner would put out massive cash to buy/keep top developing talent with the threat of relegation and dropping down to a second tier that is seen by a couple hundred people at best. 
Better to have a strong first division that pushes the level of the Canadian player as high as possible and gives the owners some level of financial security.

[Ansem]

16 hours ago, Club Linesman said:

There will be no pro/rel in the CPL.  Full stop.  

That's your opinion despite the league saying otherwise as early as 2017

16 hours ago, Club Linesman said:

And frankly if by some hell freezing over type situation it happened

They've made their intentions clear way in advance - if it happens, it would just be part of the plan.

Unlike US soccer which is decentralized (competing leagues all over the places + single entity MLS) , pro/rel in Canada is possible if all the leagues fall under a single entity (CSB owning the "non-single entity" CPL, D2 and acquiring a reformatted D3).

16 hours ago, Club Linesman said:

it would be to the detriment of Canadian development because no owner would put out massive cash to buy/keep top developing talent with the threat of relegation and dropping down to a second tier that is seen by a couple hundred people at best. 

Yet, despite being told that the league would  introduce pro/rel - investors still want a club. What mattered here is that they knew in advance that's where the league wants to go - not being blind-sighted later which is why pro/rel in MLS is next to impossible.

Your "hundred people" comment is missing massive context:

1. Are L1O and PLSQ televised?
2. Are they professionally advertised?
3. How are their infrastructure?

A D2 would be launched with the intent to air the games and have national norms for stadiums while being marketed professionally - big difference

16 hours ago, Club Linesman said:

Better to have a strong first division that pushes the level of the Canadian player as high as possible and gives the owners some level of financial security.

If you want to be like MLS - yes, but it was never the intention of the league to be like them nor have the same business plan. They will obviously find a formula that works in the Canadian reality.

I speculate

• Division II launches right after 2026 World Cup - at the peak of the sport's popularity across the country (not just in the 3 main cities) which facilitates clubs launching with a decent base
• Pro/Rel won't be introduce until 2030. It would have to be built in the new TV Contract once the deal with MediaPro expires in 2029. Only CPL and L1O in under the current contract, it's at this stage the league would need to figure out formulas for clubs being promoted/relegated
• There are ways to make pro/rel harder - CPL clubs will have years in head start over D2 clubs. You're not forced to make it automatic, pro/rel playoffs are possible at first and phase in gradually automatic pro/rel when it makes sense.
• Looking at the US model, the gap between MLS and USL is quite obvious and increasing. I don't see this as a solution either as I don't think that CSB will abandon it's mission to develop Canadians even if the CPL becomes more "elite". Ultimately, you want a strong D2 and D3 as well - not an elite D1 and the rest being forgettable - Pro/Rel gives way more incentive to lower league clubs to get stronger chasing promotion which lifts the league as well
• CSB controlling all the top 3 tier means that it can find fiscal solutions to make Pro/Rel viable via proven means that exists in Canada and elsewhere in North America

 

1. Either a Luxury tax like MLB or a Soft Cap + Luxury Tax like NBA & CFL that could be redistributed as support payments to D3 clubs
2. Revenue Sharing like the NHL where the richest clubs share some of their revenues with other clubs but on a pyramidal scale, not just CPL
3. Bundling all football medias to increase the overall value of the next TV deal. I think many TV network are going to either regret or buy CanMNT games for the upcoming WCQ if we make it to the final round. The 2026 World Cup will raise the value of National team games. Combine them with all 3 tiers of Canadian Football and it might be interested. Don't think about today, think about AFTER 2026 when football will have reach the peak in popularity in Canada.

The potential is there - up to CSB to make it work if they are truly committed to this but you can't ignore that current and prospective investors joins the league knowing in advance that this is where it might lead.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Ansem

[youllneverwalkalone]

I guess I should stop posting in this thread because I'm not necessarily a proponent of pro/rel. I don't think we have the financial means for parachute payments. I do think we could still play the promotion/relegation playoff and then have restrictions around minimum standards for D1. (To keep those wretches in TBay out of the big leagues).

All that said, in my recent memory we have had the following PDL clubs out west:

Highlanders

Rovers

Abbotsford Rangers

Okanagan FC

Foothills

FC Manitoba

Thunder Bay

So all the arguments against a D2 ring a bit hollow. It's probably a matter of perspective. I just want a place for the 18-23s who can't make the CPL to play at home. Perhaps in partnership with USports. I don't care if they get paid much or ride a bus or play double headers. 

 

 

 

[Ansem]

4 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

I don't think we have the financial means for parachute payments.

I would ask how why are we incapable of making it work (we are this world's 10th economy) and virtually everywhere else they can make it work? I mean, Haiti has pro/rel - what am I missing?

No - It won't be Championship, Ligue 2 or Segunda Division but you have to start somewhere at some point and build it up to something that works on our scale just like everywhere else

This is the recurrent theme on this board and in the mind of Canadian sports fans - the unwillingness to build from scratch and go to the growing pains because our southern neighbour is the constant measuring stick. I'm more interested in how it plays out in Australia and Scandinavian nations than what the US or England is doing - we aren't on their scale so it will never be like them.

CPL is a very fiscal conservative league, hence why it's working and I don't see them go under. I have little reasons to doubt that CSB would be any different with a D2 & pro/Rel.

[youllneverwalkalone]

Welp, not much point in worrying about the pro/rel till you actually have the D2. Build that first and see how they do. 

But certainly don't give up before you start. Totally agree with that.

[Club Linesman]

Ansem you have given this a lot more thought than I, and I am aware about what the league’s public stance is on this.  You make very valid observations and my take on this is purely based on my own opinion and relatively minimal amount of dispensable cash.  In the end I want a really strong CPL that gives our players opportunities and that in the end is a strong enough league that it’s top players contribute to the CMNT.  If that happened and there was to be pro/rel fantastic.  

[CPLinsider]

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't it a private group of investors looking to make this division 2 happen and unaffiliated with CSB? Wonder if their plan is on building it for a couple of years and then selling it to CSB... does anybody know whether Canada Soccer has sanctioned this league yet, might give some indication as to timeline

[Ansem]

27 minutes ago, CPLinsider said:

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't it a private group of investors looking to make this division 2 happen and unaffiliated with CSB? Wonder if their plan is on building it for a couple of years and then selling it to CSB... does anybody know whether Canada Soccer has sanctioned this league yet, might give some indication as to timeline

Those talks were very preliminary so I could see CSB not being hands on this early. There are investors wanting a pro club but viewing CPL as too high for them while others have clubs in BC but wanting to compete at a higher level than the projected BCL1. (I'm very much paraphrasing).

Whenever this league is ready to get the CSA sanction and/or in advanced planning phase - CSB as the owner is a must. Talking about it early is a positive whether CSB were involved or not. The plan is still 2026 for such league.

[Watchmen]

4 hours ago, Ansem said:

That's your opinion despite the league saying otherwise as early as 2017

They league also said they'd start with at least 8 teams, that the salary cap would be in the millions, and that players would be paid $50k a year minimum. None of that happened.  They also knew that a lot of soccer fans in this country would get reallllly excited about pro/rel. So it's also possible they told those fans, the ones they needed on board from the start, something they wanted to hear.

And it's not a lie. It's just that when investors are suddenly faced with the devaluation of their asset (and dropping down to D2 would be that), maybe they're not quite so keen to vote for that model. I agree that if it happens, it would be under the CSB umbrella. We wouldn't get a split pyramid like in the US. I'm just not convinced that they'll go through with pro/rel. 

[Watchmen]

4 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

I guess I should stop posting in this thread because I'm not necessarily a proponent of pro/rel. I don't think we have the financial means for parachute payments. I do think we could still play the promotion/relegation playoff and then have restrictions around minimum standards for D1. (To keep those wretches in TBay out of the big leagues).

All that said, in my recent memory we have had the following PDL clubs out west:

Highlanders

Rovers

Abbotsford Rangers

Okanagan FC

Foothills

FC Manitoba

Thunder Bay

So all the arguments against a D2 ring a bit hollow. It's probably a matter of perspective. I just want a place for the 18-23s who can't make the CPL to play at home. Perhaps in partnership with USports. I don't care if they get paid much or ride a bus or play double headers. 

But two of those have folded (Abbotsford and Okanagan), one was on hiatus before the pandemic (Highlanders), two are shifting to BCL1 (Rovers and Highlanders), and 3 are in cities with CPL teams already (Highlanders, Foothills, FC Manitoba). And PDL doesn't always pay their players. So using PDL as an example of D2 working doesn't hold up either. And the players very well might care about "not getting paid much".  At a certain point, if you've aged our of the League 1 options but can't crack a CPL roster, maybe you're simply not good enough. 

[Aird25]

The only thing that's changed for me is that they started charging a franchise fee. That makes pro/rel difficult

[Unnamed Trialist]

5 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

I guess I should stop posting in this thread because I'm not necessarily a proponent of pro/rel. I don't think we have the financial means for parachute payments. I do think we could still play the promotion/relegation playoff and then have restrictions around minimum standards for D1. (To keep those wretches in TBay out of the big leagues).

All that said, in my recent memory we have had the following PDL clubs out west:

Highlanders

Rovers

Abbotsford Rangers

Okanagan FC

Foothills

FC Manitoba

Thunder Bay

So all the arguments against a D2 ring a bit hollow. It's probably a matter of perspective. I just want a place for the 18-23s who can't make the CPL to play at home. Perhaps in partnership with USports. I don't care if they get paid much or ride a bus or play double headers. 

Unlike @WatchmenI do think it demonstrates that there are precedents, perhaps small stadiums, players, and the will to go for it in those markets. Perhaps not a lot of market, in the sense of gate revenue, but enough to cover your semi-pro costs.

I think you could also add Whitecaps u-23, regardless of whether they'd see fit to join a D2, they were at this level in the past.