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CANADA vs Jamaica Pre Game 20th July 2017

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9 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Again, I think you are ignoring that the bookies (and perhaps only them fully), know who is betting, and from where. From general patterns in recent history in soccer, in previous games bet on involving soccer, and in relation to this tournament and this match And that when international betting is relatively low, national (fan or not) betting comes into play in a bigger way, skewing the odds. This is so in lesser leagues as well, so that lesser league teams see huge leaps when into Champions, for example. The only clear exceptions are those betting in leagues in the world known to be highly  reliable in terms of winning by betting on favorites (btw, MLS is one of the least reliable in this category).

First point, then, is that Canadian betting is historically, statistically, way higher than Jamaican betting, way above any proportional population link, and high for our population in world terms. And that Canada is one of the highest overall gambling nations in total amount and in total betting losses. I don't have the stats right off on soccer betting specifically, but all our interest indicator stats in soccer are high for our population and higher than our base of teams or famous players or national team success (merchandising purchases, WC match attendance, etc).

If they set Canada too high, they will lose their asses (relatively, since this is not a big numbers match) since they know that if Canada is a slight underdog, Canadian betters will jump in early and take it, as obviously this is a close match, there is no clear favourite to be worked. Also, if they set Canada as an underdog, they will be forced very quickly to reverse the odds and turn us into a favourite very quickly, or risk exposing themselves in excess. 

Other betters on this game might be betting on the overall tournament, Americans, mostly (and Mexicans, but only for population most obviously), who are including all quarter finals for example, in bets including their national team. But they are going to go either way, and since the spread is small, they are not going to do anything different than habitual betting on games not skewed by national or fan interest.

You're not wrong... in general.

I agree with you that Canadians do gamble a lot relative to population size but I highly doubt that's reflected in single game sports betting simply because it's not legal here. Provincial books only take parlays and only on big time leagues and events, I doubt that ProLine here in Ontario is taking bets on the Gold Cup. In terms of illegal betting online I don't know of any books that publish stats on where money comes from so if you have any please post as I'd be very interested. 

And back to the topic of smart or big money there's virtually no chance of that in this game. We don't know if there was any pre-open offer to the smarts but I know that my book had the odds Sunday night into Monday morning so it's unlikely. And we know there's no big money from the public as the line hasn't changed since it opened. There may be a big public push but I doubt it.

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7 hours ago, shermanator said:

People really need to get away from the mindset that CONCACAF is screwing Canadian soccer. "....""................

The reality of playing in CONCACAF is that Canada needs to get results in hostile atmospheres and hostile weather conditions to have any chance of success, and that's not going to change.

 

Yes,   case in point, the refereeing.  The game in Edmonton in 2004 was the best example where the system screwed canada.  But, AT MOST, it screwed canada in that result in that game. There were plenty of other occasions in that cycle to advance.  I remember one game versus CRC in Vancouver (later in that cycle) where we got some very favourable referreeing.  We were still in it as far as advancing to the hex, but we still lost that crucial game because canada ultimately didn't play well enough in that game and the rest of that cycle to advance.

And thats what its about, having the talent and playing well. I know its a cliche, but its worth repeating.   Yes, there is a lot things in concacaf that make you raise your eyebrows, but if you play well, you will succeed in spite of all that.  Simple as that. 

Gott admit though, those eye brow raising decsions and occurances in Concacaf still makes for good fodder and discussions :)   Keeps the forum interesting and active :) 

Edited by Free kick

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11 minutes ago, Blackjack15 said:

I think the biggest question right now is: who do you take out in place for Larin?

I really think Larin comes off the bench around the 60th minute mark for Cavallini.  Go with the essentially the same starting 11 as the game vs. FG, except (maybe) Adekugbe in place of MDJ ... for me, that's the toughest call: Adekugbe or MDJ at LB.  I would go with MDJ, but I could really see Adekugbe being a better fit vs. Jamaica given he has a bit more pace.

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4 minutes ago, Addona said:

I really think Larin comes off the bench around the 60th minute mark for Cavallini.  Go with the essentially the same starting 11 as the game vs. FG, except (maybe) Adekugbe in place of MDJ ... for me, that's the toughest call: Adekugbe or MDJ at LB.  I would go with MDJ, but I could really see Adekugbe being a better fit vs. Jamaica given he has a bit more pace.

Marcel de Jong is playing! Period. Man I really miss David Edgar

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Adekugbe should start at left back, he played well the last game, he is becoming the present and the future at his position, MDJ is the past there is no future with him there , Adekugbe has shown he is more or less ready to play, play him, let him get that big game experience in, MDJ days with national team are winding down so if it's a choice between the two you go with the younger player of the two.

Edited by 1996

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Ok... some objective proof

 

this calendar year Jamaica are 2-2-2, we are 3-3-0. So we haven't lost in 6 games this year, Jamaica have lost 2.

Goals for Jamaica - 5; Canada - 12

Goals Against Jamaica - 5; Canada - 7

The goal difference for us is +5, Jam is 0

If we include last year as well: Jam 2-1-7 in 2016; Canada 3-1-6. Nothing to brag about but still a better record. Combined and if you use points for the records we would have 22, Jam would have 15. And the goal difference would be heavily in out favour. There is definite proof or argument that we have been much better the last year and a half than Jamaica.

Ultimately who the favourites are is a subjective thing, and really that's decided by what people think. So to some extent if people bet on us they think we're the favourites which is worth something. the ELO rankings also show us as faves where as FIFA shows us not. We may have conceded two more than them in this tournament be we have scored 5 to their 3. So it evens out. They got a draw against mex we did against Costa Rica. I think it's pretty even!

 

can we all agree on let's ******* go Canada?

Edited by Brethers8
I'm stupid

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1 hour ago, Brethers8 said:

Ok... some objective proof

 

this calendar year Jamaica are 2-2-2, we are 3-3-0. So we haven't lost in 6 games this year, Jamaica have lost 2.

Goals for Jamaica - 5; Canada - 12

Goals Against Jamaica - 5; Canada - 7

Bu the goal difference for us is +5, Jam is 0

If we include last year as well: Jam 0-1-6 in 2016; Canada 1-0-3. Nothing o brag about but still a better record. Combined and if you have out points for the records we would have 15, Jam would have 9. And the goal difference would be heavily in out favour. There is definite proof or argument that we have been much better the last year and a half than Jamaica.

Ultimately who the favourites are is a subjective thing, and really that's decided by what people think. So to some extent if people bet on us they think we're the favourites which is worth something. the ELO rankings also show us as faves where as FIFA shows us not. We may have conceded two more than them in this tournament be we have scored 5 to their 3. So it evens out. They got a draw against mex we did against Costa Rica. I think it's pretty even!

 

can we all agree on let's ******* go Canada?

we're actually 3-1-6 in 2016. You were looking at our wiki page weren't you?

Edited by canta15

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10 minutes ago, canta15 said:

we're actually 3-1-6 in 2016. You were looking at our wiki page weren't you?

No it's what came up on google! It must have cut out the earlier results. Woopsie. All edited now thanks for the heads up

Edited by Brethers8

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8 hours ago, 1996 said:

Adekugbe should start at left back, he played well the last game, he is becoming the present and the future at his position, MDJ is the past there is no future with him there , Adekugbe has shown he is more or less ready to play, play him, let him get that big game experience in, MDJ days with national team are winding down so if it's a choice between the two you go with the younger player of the two.

Not saying that Adekugbe should or shouldn't start but possibly he looked a little better last game having MDJ playing in front of him.  A little extra defensive help.

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I like that most of the starting 11 is pretty much set.  only LB, CM and Striker are up for grabs.

Adekugbe vs DeJong.  DeJong is the better, safer option right now.  But Adekugbe needs the big game experience and he has played well enough to start. I'd go with Adekugbe.

Osorio vs Bernier is another decision. Osorio brings spark and energy and you can tell he wants to make a difference. Bernier hasn't had any stand out moments but he doesn't make mistakes and is a solid penalty taker.  Gotta go w Bernier to start and captain the side. This might be his last few games in a Canada shirt.

Larin vs Cavallini.  I don't think it would be good optics or good for team morale to have a guy walk onto the starting 11.  It's not like Cyle is doing well, has he really not scored in MLS since May? Cavallini to start.  Let's see what he can give us in a do or die game.

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Tough calls all around.  I def agree re Cav vs Larin, but I am less sure of the other two.  MDJ has had a pretty solid tournament, and while I also like Adekugbe so far, it is hard to justify using a must-win to provide tourney experience.  Having said that, nothing I have seen so far makes me worry about him.  And in the middle I like Bernier's steady, solid play - but Osorio was a spark plug when he subbed in last game.  Really, for the CM or LB positions, I think I am good with whatever OZ chooses. I do feel bit more strongly about the Larin/Cav thing - in part because Cav seems like he may need a bit of gentle handling to keep him effective for us, and in part because Larin has never blown me away in a CMNT jersey.

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Go with de Jong myself but I'm more inclined to attack Jamaica then I probably should be.  Hard to argue against bloodying Adekugbe in this sort of match but just don't think the lad is at that point yet where investing in his future potential trumps immediate needs.

If Bernier still has legs I'm leaning towards him if the alternative is Osario.  Have to accept that you will be committed to using a sub on him though.  That clouds my mind.  Not sure I want to carry that handicap into a knock out match against Jamaica.

Edited by Cheeta

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21 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

I like that most of the starting 11 is pretty much set.  only LB, CM and Striker are up for grabs.

Adekugbe vs DeJong.  DeJong is the better, safer option right now.  But Adekugbe needs the big game experience and he has played well enough to start. I'd go with Adekugbe.

Osorio vs Bernier is another decision. Osorio brings spark and energy and you can tell he wants to make a difference. Bernier hasn't had any stand out moments but he doesn't make mistakes and is a solid penalty taker.  Gotta go w Bernier to start and captain the side. This might be his last few games in a Canada shirt.

Larin vs Cavallini.  I don't think it would be good optics or good for team morale to have a guy walk onto the starting 11.  It's not like Cyle is doing well, has he really not scored in MLS since May? Cavallini to start.  Let's see what he can give us in a do or die game.

I agree on all 3 fronts, BUT the problem with starting Bernier and mentioning his penalty taking skills is that I doubt he'll make it to minute 90 if he starts ... this is one reason I was debating starting Oso or Teibert, and maybe subbing Bernier in if it's tied.

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Bernier starts.  Keeps the ball the best under up field pressure which I sense the Jamaicans may opt for in these climate controlled conditions and is capable of springing the attacking three with a key pass.  If you start Davies on the left, I think you need De Jong's savvy and communication behind him to help him pick up open attackers.  Piette has been great at supporting the fullbacks so he can help support the Caps vet.  An underrated aspect of Hoillet's play is that he's been pretty good at helping Petrasso on the defensive side of things.

Cavallini starts.  He'll bag his first goal in this match.  Jakovic and Vitoria in the central defence.

A winning mentality begins with the complete mindset of winning this in the 90 minutes, which we should do, so don't be overly concerned by the fear of who's on the field for penalties.  Let's roll!

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No one has mentioned it, but this must be feeling like a pretty special game for Junior.  Given that he has generally played very well for us, but still doesn't have a goal to show for it, I think things are lining up nicely for him to be a real difference maker on Thursday.  I could see him breaking out and getting a brace!

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8 minutes ago, Addona said:

No one has mentioned it, but this must be feeling like a pretty special game for Junior.  Given that he has generally played very well for us, but still doesn't have a goal to show for it, I think things are lining up nicely for him to be a real difference maker on Thursday.  I could see him breaking out and getting a brace!

also the fact that he could of represented Jamaica..

Edited by mpg_29

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3 hours ago, Addona said:

No one has mentioned it, but this must be feeling like a pretty special game for Junior.  Given that he has generally played very well for us, but still doesn't have a goal to show for it, I think things are lining up nicely for him to be a real difference maker on Thursday.  I could see him breaking out and getting a brace!

Junior is a provider, not a scorer. Going from memory I think he has averaged about a goal every 8 matches over his career. We should not be surprised he has not yet scored for us, missed penalties notwithstanding!

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On 7/17/2017 at 0:03 AM, DeRo_Is_King said:

Noticed this, too. Leave it to CONCASCRAP to sabotage Canada's run. Playing at 4:30 in Glendale will be no picnic because of the heat, something Jamaica is much better equipped to deal with. 7:30 was much more favourable. 

They'll probably have the roof on with air conditioning, will be nice compared to the other games.

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