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Gian-Luca

2017 Gold Cup Opponents

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12 hours ago, Christian B. said:

Well I see your point but if the nil-nil result stands between FG and Honduras I believe that mathematically we could still finish last in our group and be eliminated. No?

Good point - I'd forgotten that was, at the time of typing, still mathematically possible. Although I believe maplebanana's math is correct that the most "likely" scenario for us to finish last is a 1-0 FG win over Costa Rica and then, with us entering the Honduras game knowing we just need a draw to win the group, somehow conspiring to lose 4-0. Even a 3-0 loss wouldn't do it in that scenario (although it would make our chance of a 3rd place qualification a lot more dicey).

Edited by Gian-Luca

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10 hours ago, Cheeta said:

Yeah, you can clobber FG for playing around with all this nonsense in the future, you know to set an example, but in the here and now of the tourney its hard to find a fair answer for all the innocent teams effected, ie Canada, Honduras & Costa Rica, 3rd place finisher in Group B, 3rd place finisher in Group C.

FYP, although it wasn't as substantial as I thought it would be. I was going to put in all the Caribbean nations that were eliminated against French Guiana + Malouda, but apparently he didn't actually play in Gold Cup qualifying. I've never followed the Caribbean cup before, but I went looking through the results, and apparently there is a giant qualifying, with 3 rounds, that determines the top 4 teams. Those 4 teams then play in the Caribbean Cup proper, and all 4 of those teams advance to the Gold Cup. Malouda played in the Caribbean Cup proper, not in qualifying, so I guess no teams were wronged in Gold Cup qualifying even if in fact he is an ineligible player. I guess Martinique could make the list though as an innocent team affected by this whole thing, because they lost to French Guiana + Malouda in the 3rd place game.

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In tournaments like this you need to get stronger from match to match.. we need to continue that and we'll be fine. If we fall asleep we could be home and deservedly so.

Edited by Keegan

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I think tonight we should be cheering for a Curacao win against El Salvador. That would leave El Salvador with 0 points with one game remaining, which means they can't get to 4 points and knock us out of a potential 3rd place spot, and it would leave Curacao with 3 points with their game against Mexico remaining, which of course would be difficult for them to get a result.

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Gavin Day tweeted 15 minutes ago that a decision on Malouda-gate is expected a few hours from now as the disciplinary committee are currently meeting to discuss.

The way the pundits were talking, I was expecting a decision within 30 minutes of the game concluding on Tuesday night. If they are taking a few hours to discuss and/or drafting really long reasons for their decision, it still suggests it will not be quite so open and shut.

Although perhaps I should not be expecting efficiency on this front given the organization involved.

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Interesting headline and article..... "forges ahead". 

Article released only 2 hours ago.  Still no official statement.

http://www.goldcup.org/en/article/honduras-forges-ahead-at-gold-cup

Beginning to think because of "the integrity of the tournament" lol, and no player eligibility protest 48 hours before the tourny, and Malouda not being removed from the roster. They will just leave everything the same, full "evaluation" after the tourny.  Only for Fifa to rule Malouda eligible for FG, haha.

Edited by apbsmith

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3 hours ago, Kent said:

I think tonight we should be cheering for a Curacao win against El Salvador. That would leave El Salvador with 0 points with one game remaining, which means they can't get to 4 points and knock us out of a potential 3rd place spot, and it would leave Curacao with 3 points with their game against Mexico remaining, which of course would be difficult for them to get a result.

Even a tie would be good, since then for ES to get to 4 pts, they would need to beat Jamaica, and I suspect Jamaica will lose tonight as well, leaving them with 3 pts in that scenario.

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2 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Still no ruling on Malouda?  Jesus.  Seems like the legal argument at least made them think about it.  

Maybe Vic is like: "we will rule on it after the Gold Cup, and then is like we have concluded it was wrong and we will look into how to reprimand French Guiana at a later date."

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2-0 final ES over Curacao. Both teams missed a boat load of chances. Curacao are basically done, ES moves to 3 points and an even goal differential with 3 scored, 3 conceded. They remain in 3rd place for now, at least until the outcome of Mexico vs. Jamaica.

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1 hour ago, Gian-Luca said:

Mexico 0, Jamaica 0. Both teams move on to 4 points and have a plus 2 goal differential. Mexico in first with more goals scored.

After two matches for each team, Canada leads the Gold Cup in goals scored - who'd have thunk it?

 

Are we all collectively dreaming?

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Well, as if I needed more motivation to hate Honduras:

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/07/14/concacaf-issues-florent-malouda-ruling-french-guiana-forfeit-gold-cup-game

It's simple for us now. We need a win or a draw to claim 2nd (FG need to get a result for us to get 1st). A loss and we can still go through in 3rd place with 4 pts, but we have to hope for a Panama win over Martinique and/or a Jamaica win over El Salvador so that at least one group B/C 3rd place team finishes with 3 pts.

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It's still not that easy unfortunately, there is still a lot of pressure because if I'm reading this correctly if Canada loses, we need Panama to beat Martinique and or  Jamaica to beat El Salvador , I can easily see both Jamaica and Panama not winning their games yikes .

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I find it totally irrational that the result of 3-0, which is merely symbolic, is made to count as actual goals scored. It is a ruling that defies basic legal sense, since it hurts third parties who are uninvolved and gives the winning team an unfair advantage over and above the win itself. 

That a Canadian heads the commission that made that ruling makes it even more distasteful. 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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30 minutes ago, 1996 said:

It's still not that easy unfortunately, there is still a lot of pressure because if I'm reading this correctly if Canada loses, we need Panama to beat Martinique and or  Jamaica to beat El Salvador , I can easily see both Jamaica and Panama not winning their games yikes .

Tiebreaker is Goal diff, then Goals scored, then drawing lots which makes for a lot of weird permutations. 

Basically though, we'd need to lose by 2 and have both those games end in draws to be in any trouble.

In the event of us losing by 1, an El Salvador win would actually put us through on goals scored ahead of Jamaica (unless Jamaica scored at least 3 and we didn't score any). Martinique winning a low scoring game would similarly see Panama out too. 

If Martinique and El Salvador both draw somehow and we lose by 2, then things would get interesting. Even then we would go through ahead of El Salvador unless they score at least 2 goals in the draw and we don't score any.

Obviously we just need to go out and take care of business. I think we're a better team and need to show it tonight. There's still a chance of us eliminating Honduras which would be the only fair way to end the group stage.

Hopefully the added pressure will help us get ready for the knockout stage. Interested to see what our lineup will be. I'm mostly worried about Arfield playing and picking up another yellow. Too bad we won't know the results of the other games until after we've played.

 

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By my calculations, losing by 1 essentially guarantees passage.  Losing by 2 gets tricky not only if both games end in a draw, but if Mart ties Panama and ES beats J by 1.

 

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Assuming Mexico, USA and Costa Rica win or tie their final match (which is worst case scenario for us and entirely likely)

 

If Canada lose 1-0 we are in unless

  1. Panama ties 2-2 or more AND

  2. Jamaica lose by exactly 1 goal (but 4-3 or more)

 

If Canada lose 2-0 there are plenty of scenarios in which we are eliminated

  1. Panama ties with any score / Panama lose by 1 (but 3-2 or more) AND

  2. Jamaica lose by exactly 1 goal / Jamaica lose by exactly 2 goals (but 4-2 or more) / Jamaica ties (2-2 or more)

 

If Canada lose 3-0 or more then we need one of the following to happen:

  1. Panama win OR

  2. Jamaica win

 

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2 hours ago, maplebanana said:

This fills me with a pretty diverse range of emotions.

  • Hatred for Honduras, just because.
  • Disgust with CONCACAF, for allowing it to happen in the context of what serves as our regional championship tournament.
  • Extreme disappointment that our representation at the head of CONCACAF has done nothing whatsoever to ensure that we get a fair shake (and that is all I am looking for - fairness, not special treatment).
  • Anger at French Guiana, both for flagrantly and knowingly violating the rules, and for providing a huge advantage to Honduras by doing so.
  • And sadness that this may still be in the back of my mind during a crucial 3 minute period this evening.

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After seeing results NOT go our way these past 2 days (i.e., Mexico not beating Jamaica and the US not winning by at least 2-3 goals over Mart.), I've changed my mind: we need to field a very strong line-up.  If Arfield / Vitoria picks up a yellow, and/or anyone can't go in the QF because of fatigue, then so be it.  I would go with this tonight:

Borjan

Petrasso - Jako - Vitoria - MDJ

Arfield - Piette - Bernier

Ricketts - Cav - Hoilett

That still means that MDJ, Bernier, Ricketts, and Cav are all rotating into the starting 11, so we still have some very fresh legs. Depending on the scoreline, subs could be:  Davies for Hoillett around minute 60, Teibert for Bernier, and AJH for Cav.

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