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harrycoyster

How would you rank Canada in regards to the other CONCACAF teams?

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We are currently ranked as the 15th best team in CONCACAF in the FIFA Rankings. I think we are clearly better than that, but it's hard to say where exactly.

I think I'd put us in the 6-9 range with T&T, Jamaica, Curacao (Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama,  Honduras, and the US being ahead).

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In a neutral site tournament?  Probably 8th behind Mexico/USA/Costa Rica/Trinidad/Jamaica/Panama/Honduras

In a home and home elimination tournament?  Still think we'd struggle with El Salvador (assuming they aren't on strike nor have nothing to play for) and Guatemala.  

So...somewhere from 8-10.

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8 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

Neutral venue tournament, we can beat everyone except Mexico.

We don't BEAT the US or Costa Rica 9 out of 10 times. Could Definitely tie but it would be a massive undertaking to win.

I think we are right after the Hex teams (minus Trinadad and Tobago) and Jamaica.

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Not trying to be an ass, but it is hard to take the idea of a top 6 place seriously when we haven't made the hex in decades.  We may be on a bit of an upswing in terms of player quality, but the most recent WCQ campaign shows that we are not overtaking our peer nations in the way that we need to if we ever want to consistently claim relevance in CONCACAF.  

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11 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Not trying to be an ass, but it is hard to take the idea of a top 6 place seriously when we haven't made the hex in decades.  We may be on a bit of an upswing in terms of player quality, but the most recent WCQ campaign shows that we are not overtaking our peer nations in the way that we need to if we ever want to consistently claim relevance in CONCACAF.  

Well, the last 2 WCQ, we miss the Hex by one point and we didn't have any luck in the draw (twice two top 6 teams in our group). We obviously miss oportunities to go to the Hex, but that's an other story...

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1 hour ago, Dr.Dre said:

Well, the last 2 WCQ, we miss the Hex by one point and we didn't have any luck in the draw (twice two top 6 teams in our group). We obviously miss oportunities to go to the Hex, but that's an other story...

Guatemala missed the two last Hex by a combined 1 point and nobody here has even mentioned them. I guess that since we don't make the Hex on a semi-consistent basis, and others do, we don't have an argument for top 6 (Gold Cup results definitely don't help the argument either).

The thing is T&T and Jamaica are so hot and cold that I don't think they deserve 6 either.

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1 hour ago, dsqpr said:

Me neither. But if you look at the points we are virtually tied with Jamaica for 6th. Those rankings pretty closely reflect my own opinion.

Curacao being 19th in CONCACAF is pretty laughable to be honest. Their starting 11 is only slightly worse than ours. They have 3 players starting in the Evedivise, 2 players in the EPL, and a player in the Portuguese top flight. Suriname, who is a spot in front of them, has no players playing outside the Caribbean, and got crushed in the Gold Cup entry play-off by Haiti. They are easily top 12. 

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1 minute ago, dsqpr said:

The algorithm is based on your results, not the perceived quality of your squad.

It looks like the algorithm takes past results into account a little too heavily. Curacao qualified for the Gold Cup out of Carribean Cup with a +15 goal differential. Suriname finished even of goal differential. Curacao is 6-1-1 and Suriname is 4-3-1 since 2015.

The teams were close in the early 2010s, but the recent influx of Dutch born players into the Curaco national team has made them way better.

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5 minutes ago, harrycoyster said:

Curacao being 19th in CONCACAF is pretty laughable to be honest. Their starting 11 is only slightly worse than ours. They have 3 players starting in the Evedivise, 2 players in the EPL, and a player in the Portuguese top flight. Suriname, who is a spot in front of them, has no players playing outside the Caribbean, and got crushed in the Gold Cup entry play-off by Haiti. They are easily top 12. 

They don't have 2 players in the EPL they have 1 listed with Everton but he's not even listed on the teams website. They have another who's with Aston Villa. They don't have a player in the Portuguese 1st division, they have a guy who's signed to Maritmo but is on loan to a second division team. They have 4 players listed with Dutch 1st division teams. They have a couple German 3rd division guys, a guy playing Poland, one in Slovakia, one in Denmark, one guy playing amateur football and a bunch from the Curacaoun league. A lot of the guys they have don't have a lot of appearances over the last 6-12 months. I don't want to jinx anything but I'll be disappointed with anything but a win.

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In my opinion, Canada is approaching minnow status on the international stage. I'd put us behind 9th in CONCACAF behind Mexico, US, Costa Rica, Honduas, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica and T&T.

Edited by shermanator

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On 2017-06-03 at 0:22 AM, dsqpr said:

The algorithm is based on your results, not the perceived quality of your squad.

If you want a higher ranking you have to earn it on the pitch.

The same could be said of FIFA rankings.

On topic. Finished last in our Gold Cup group the last two Gold Cups, and the previous one to that only finished ahead of Guadeloupe. Haven't made the hex in 20 years. Saying top 6 is fantasy or dishonest. Saying top 8 is quite optimistic. I would say probably around 10th. Hoping I will be proved wrong at the Gold Cup!

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10 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

We've been the 9th or 10th best team for a while now.  We're better than the minnows but not as good as the better teams.  We have lots of potential but nothing to show for it.  On paper we may have the 4th or 5th best team but it hasn't shown in results.

Exactly, on paper we should be better but we didn't have the coaching and chemistry to make the team click. Hopefully this changes with Zambrano

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On 6/5/2017 at 7:30 AM, canta15 said:

Exactly, on paper we should be better but we didn't have the coaching and chemistry to make the team click. Hopefully this changes with Zambrano

Coaching, chemistry, and our complete lack of confidence playing in Central America.

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There are great, nearly unimpeachable stats for two big things in soccer: international rankings (ELO) and 'we did/didn't finish our chances' (expected goals). Post those, argument ended, move on.

 

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34 minutes ago, dsqpr said:

That is fine, but how big do you think the gap is between Honduras and us, at 4 and 8 respectively? We did split our recent WCQ matches with them (and using UEFA Champions League rules would have beaten them on away goals) and only finished 1 point behind them in the group (and they were greatly helped by Mexico's indifference after already qualifying).

In my mind we have:

1-3. All clearly a cut above. 

4-8. All pretty close, not much to choose between them, doesn't really matter who is 4 or 8 at any given moment.

9-?. All clearly a cut below and you would not fancy any of these teams to win home or away against any of the 4-8 teams.

And of course below that group we have the minnows.

1. I think Mexico right now is clearly the best team in CONCACAF. 

2-3. USA and Costa Rica are very close at two and three respectively, but it's so close that I would not fault someone for switching those around. At any rate, Mexico is clearly above both.

4-5. Honduras and Panama are a little like USA and Costa Rica: Both are close and you could swap their positions, but I put Honduras slightly ahead due to their home form, back-to-back WC participation, and Youth. Honduras have better young players than Panama do IMO. I think Honduras-Panama is quite a step lower than USA-Costa Rica, arguably larger than the gap from Mexico to USA-Costa Rica

6: T&T I think are just slightly above the next group, which is..

7-11: Jamaica, Canada, Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador: This is pretty subjective but I think all these teams are around the same level, all capable of taking points from one another, none clearly above the other. Jamaica has had more success than us in recent years, had that run last tournament, played in Copa America, etc. I put us in second of that group due to potential, because on paper we should be a top 6 team in CONCACAF. No question. Haiti I see as below us until they can show more regularly that they can compete, or they start to export more players to better leagues. Guatamala and El Salvador are pretty much the same for me, but I have El Salvador as 11th because I think their program is less stable. 

12: Curacao. Because well on paper they look really good, but they haven't proven it yet. With better depth they'd be in the group above without having to prove anything to be, just based on paper alone, but they simply have too many local players for me to give them that yet.

Edited by Obinna

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6 hours ago, Obinna said:

1. I think Mexico right now is clearly the best team in CONCACAF. 

2-3. USA and Costa Rica are very close at two and three respectively, but it's so close that I would not fault someone for switching those around. At any rate, Mexico is clearly above both.

4-5. Honduras and Panama are a little like USA and Costa Rica: Both are close and you could swap their positions, but I put Honduras slightly ahead due to their home form, back-to-back WC participation, and Youth. Honduras have better young players than Panama do IMO. I think Honduras-Panama is quite a step lower than USA-Costa Rica, arguably larger than the gap from Mexico to USA-Costa Rica

6: T&T I think are just slightly above the next group, which is..

7-11: Jamaica, Canada, Haiti, Guatemala, El Salvador: This is pretty subjective but I think all these teams are around the same level, all capable of taking points from one another, none clearly above the other. Jamaica has had more success than us in recent years, had that run last tournament, played in Copa America, etc. I put us in second of that group due to potential, because on paper we should be a top 6 team in CONCACAF. No question. Haiti I see as below us until they can show more regularly that they can compete, or they start to export more players to better leagues. Guatamala and El Salvador are pretty much the same for me, but I have El Salvador as 11th because I think their program is less stable. 

12: Curacao. Because well on paper they look really good, but they haven't proven it yet. With better depth they'd be in the group above without having to prove anything to be, just based on paper alone, but they simply have too many local players for me to give them that yet.

I'd agree with this, expect I think Panama is better than Honduras. That will almost certainly change after this cycle though, as Panama's core is very old and Honduras is a relatively young team. I'd also consider moving Jamaica up into the T&T bracket. They are a very up and down team, but the ups are way up (beating Chile last year for example). They are also probablybetter than T&T on paper.

Edited by harrycoyster

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