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54 minutes ago, ted said:
  1. The United States of America has a population and economy 10x bigger than ours so absolute number comparisons are not that concerning to me. The percentage drop year one to year two does, and when we see the year two numbers for CanPL we can compare.
  2. Never said they were invincible and those sort of absolute statements are not appropriate nor welcome. I'm having a civil discussion to find out what factors would lead to being pessimistic today. Today I am reasonably optimistic with nagging worries. Tomorrow the whole thing could collapse.

     

I do think the absolute numbers are relevant, because with the USA having 10x the population and 10x the money, it should be 10x easier for them to build a League that can last, and they were incredibly close to failing.

Apologies for putting words in your mouth. It sounded to me like you were asking why would people think it might fail, implying that you think it can’t fail.

I guess to answer your question about warning signals, and none of these mean they are behind where I think the League should be at this point. Attendance is low enough that a decrease could put teams in a tough spot, OneSoccer and CPL still feel like things that if you mention them to a stranger on the street they will not know anything of it, onesoccer subscription numbers are not known which suggests the numbers aren’t high enough to brag about and now they are being given to SSH presumably to pump up viewership.

I don’t know if I have a pessimistic, optimistic, or realistic view of CPL. There is still a LOT to be seen. I can imagine it folding in 3 or 4 years and I can imagine it growing to a three (yes, three) tier pyramid with promotion and relegation with 16 teams in the top tier and dozens in the third tier (8 to 16 in D2). I can also imagine everything in between those scenarios. I am just excited as hell to watch it unfold.

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8 minutes ago, Kent said:

OneSoccer and CPL still feel like things that if you mention them to a stranger on the street they will not know anything of it, onesoccer subscription numbers are not known which suggests the numbers aren’t high enough to brag about and now they are being given to SSH presumably to pump up viewership.

DAZN also gives content away free to pump up subscribers and viewers. They just went over 8 million subscribers worldwide in 9 markets. Very high profile events like boxing I think helps drive this.

We actually do not know what the deal is between OneSoccer  and the clubs when it comes to giving away "free" subscriptions. Perhaps clubs get more from OneSoccer, or some incentive, if they can deliver more season ticket holders as potential viewers. 

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1 hour ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

CPL and CSB have been able to accomplish a few things that suggest sustainability:

1. Net profit does not seem to be entirely or even substantially gate driven.

2. Leveraging the high level amateur game to provide a very watchable product at $750k without having to repatriate that many players from abroad.

3. Finding a few local billionaire investors and high end sponsors.

I was young during the CSL, but is there really any comparison?

From what I've seen, no.   The league seems much better capitalized, I went to a lot of the Intrepid games and the team seemed to be run on a shoestring (not sure how the other teams were run), obviously with the  media explosion since then , the media coverage is better, information is more available, i find everything I've seen with the CanPL so far to be very professional in comparison.

Edited by MM3/MM2/MM

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31 minutes ago, MM3/MM2/MM said:

From what I've seen, no.   The league seems much better capitalized, I went to a lot of the Intrepid games and the team seemed to be run on a shoestring (not sure the other teams were run), obviously with the  media explosion since then , the media coverage is better, information is more available, i find everything I've seen with the CanPL so far to be very professional in comparison.

As an old Hamilton Steeler fan, I fully agree with this post.

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11 hours ago, Lofty said:

In 2019, USL Championship average attendance was 4,476 and median attendance was 4,118, indicating that the average was skewed upwards by a few outliers at the top.

https://soccerstadiumdigest.com/2019-usl-championship-attendance/

CPL average attendance was 4,279 so CPL attendance is already equivalent to USL.

In the long term, I'd like to see the CPL average at least 10,000 which should still allow teams with a 7-8k average to be competitive, so let's call it 7-15k. I think that should open up a lot of potential markets.

USL Championship also had its number taken down by the MLS II reserve teams that drew pretty badly, of which 4 of them averaged under a 1,000. MLS reserve teams held down eight of the bottom nine spots in attendance. If you take out the MLS reserve teams the rest of the league averaged 5,332 a game.  https://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?p=10517

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1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

SALARY CAP

It's official, in the press conference Gil Marin said "tenemos un salary cap muy estricto que es de 750mil dólares canadienses brutos..." 

That's 750 thousand before taxes. 

I find it low. 

That's almost what TFC averages per player. So not unreasonable for a salary cap for the maximum salary per player.

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4 hours ago, Cblake said:

USL Championship also had its number taken down by the MLS II reserve teams that drew pretty badly, of which 4 of them averaged under a 1,000. MLS reserve teams held down eight of the bottom nine spots in attendance. If you take out the MLS reserve teams the rest of the league averaged 5,332 a game.  https://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?p=10517

Best to look at just the league to league numbers overall, when you start cherry picking it becomes irrelevant - those MLS II teams are USL franchises after all just like the minor league USL affiliates and the Independants.

Was quite happy this year that the first year CPL had a near equivalent average to the 10 year old USL and it will only go up from here for Canada's D1 league, just as it did for MLS from their early years.

Edited by CDNFootballer

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3 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Was quite happy this year that the first year CPL had a near equivalent average to the 10 year old USL and it will only go up from here for Canada's D1 league, just as it did for MLS from their early years.

Um, what early MLS years are you talking about exactly? Attendance in MLS went down in years 2, 3, 4, and 5. It wasn’t until year 16 that MLS attendance surpassed its year 1 level.

If attendance in CPL increases this season, that will be an accomplishment that MLS did not achieve.

For fun I looked up other notable leagues. Original NASL also declined in year 2. USL (its 2011 incarnation) and the more recent NASL both increased attendance numbers in year 2. I couldn’t find numbers for the original CSL.

Source: All numbers from Wikipedia, no screenshots of crowds were examined.

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6 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Best to look at just the league to league numbers overall, when you start cherry picking it becomes irrelevant - those MLS II teams are USL franchises after all just like the minor league USL affiliates and the Independants.

Was quite happy this year that the first year CPL had a near equivalent average to the 10 year old USL and it will only go up from here for Canada's D1 league, just as it did for MLS from their early years.

Even the USL itself publishes two attendance numbers, independents and MLS owned. 

 f6brg6d7bvp11.png

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24 minutes ago, Cblake said:

Even the USL itself publishes two attendance numbers, independents and MLS owned. 

The USL has a vested interest in trying to make its attendance numbers look as good as possible!

Regardless, even if you fudge the numbers by eliminating the bottom 8 teams (!!) but retain all the outliers at the top, USL is STILL not that far ahead of CPL.

So I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make. My original post was simply to point out that, with an average of 4,476, or even 5,332, it is exceedingly misleading to call USL a 5k-10k league, as in the post to which I replied. Particularly when you consider, and there is no way to fudge this, that only 12 USL-C teams averaged over 5,000! It really doesn't matter whether you call that 12/30 or 12/22, because either way it leaves around half of the teams under 5k!

Edit: Looking at the numbers again, I'd call USL a 1-10k league, which excludes a few outliers at either end. Or, if you exclude the bottom 8 teams (!!), a 2k-10k league.

Edited by Lofty

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17 hours ago, PaulV said:

Just as the USL average is skewed upwards by a few really successful franchises, it is also skewed downwards by the reserve teams.

When the average is higher than the median, the outliers skew the numbers upwards.

When the average is lower than the median, the outliers skew the numbers downwards.

In the USL attendance numbers for 2019, the average is higher than the median. Therefore the outliers skew the numbers upwards.

Edited by Lofty

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The MLS reserve roster minimum must be well above the CPL average salary. That makes it super risky for CPL teams to take even young MLS players on loan. We need to raise the cap soon to be remotely competitive 

Edited by Aird25

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strongly doubt cpl teams are paying the whole salary when a player is loaned from mls..smith and telfer at 70k us last year..no way teams paid all of that..with a cap of 750k that would be over 10% of it

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On 2/10/2020 at 8:00 AM, grande said:

I have heard a third-hand rumour that the schedule will be coming out this week.

Accurate? Who knows... but my fingers are crossed.

You can uncross your fingers now. 😁

In fairness, I don't really expect the schedule to be released many months in advance. The EFL schedule is typically released mid-Jun for an early Aug start and you then have to wait a further 2-4 weeks for it to be finalized by Sky choosing which matches it wants moved for TV. But of course the EFL has a much shorter close season so it would be hard for them to do it 3 months in advance.

All things considered, I'd be fine with a target of 1st March each year for releasing the schedule, but then COMMIT to it!

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57 minutes ago, Lofty said:

You can uncross your fingers now. 😁

In fairness, I don't really expect the schedule to be released many months in advance. The EFL schedule is typically released mid-Jun for an early Aug start and you then have to wait a further 2-4 weeks for it to be finalized by Sky choosing which matches it wants moved for TV. But of course the EFL has a much shorter close season so it would be hard for them to do it 3 months in advance.

All things considered, I'd be fine with a target of 1st March each year for releasing the schedule, but then COMMIT to it!

In Spain they don't even release a whole schedule, ever. They just announce the fixture sequence, and then the actual times and dates are often only confirmed less than a month in advance. So you effectively can't plan in advance. 

In the past this was because they federation was useless. 

Now they say it is to design what they are offering to national and international tv audiences, so that they pick the matches that might interest more in Spain or in Asia (eg Espanyol has a big following because of Wu Lei) as the season progresses. This actually does make sense, they are fiddling with the algorithms constantly, but I realise it is not what we are used to in North America, dates and times for an entire season.

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7 hours ago, Big_M said:

strongly doubt cpl teams are paying the whole salary when a player is loaned from mls..smith and telfer at 70k us last year..no way teams paid all of that..with a cap of 750k that would be over 10% of it

Don't care who pays it.  Don't think you could even dictate how A and B decide how they're going to spend their money on C.  But a loaned player's salary, in it's entirety, better bloody well count against their CPL team's salary cap.

Want no part of any scheme which can create a dependency on subsidized labour from an outside organizations.  Nope.  

That cap is too light in my opinon, by a stretch.  Think it might be a couple years yet before it gets into the 1M mark.   But it's going to need to, and the sooner the better.

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18 hours ago, Cblake said:

Even the USL itself publishes two attendance numbers, independents and MLS owned. 

 f6brg6d7bvp11.png

Ahhh No, that's not the USL report, that's from a guy on twitter, Mike Pendleton, a Rowdies fan (it even shows his twitter handle on the bottom if you look).

But USL does change the narrative when it suits them, like when their average attendance barely moved one year so they ignored that figure and started touting "total attendance" instead as they had grew by a few teams and of course the total went up.

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On 2/14/2020 at 8:05 PM, Kent said:

....I guess to answer your question about warning signals, and none of these mean they are behind where I think the League should be at this point. Attendance is low enough that a decrease could put teams in a tough spot, OneSoccer and CPL still feel like things that if you mention them to a stranger on the street they will not know anything of it, onesoccer subscription numbers are not known which suggests the numbers aren’t high enough to brag about and now they are being given to SSH presumably to pump up viewership....

The main thing is the salary cap has been kept sensibly low. They avoided the mistake of trying to outspend the independent USL teams and competing with MLS teams for fringe CMNT players like Tosaint Ricketts, so the financial bleeding involved probably isn't all that drastic for the investors given their wealth level.

Now that most games will be on weekends there is even scope for more of a downscale financially if it were ever needed. Hopefully not because it's important to stay genuinely fully professional if at all possible to keep the level of play up to the level that we saw in year one.

The biggest danger is having so many fantasists around that expect the league to be able to run before it learns to walk and think CanPL is in some huge competition with MLS. As long as the investors pay no attention to them and are only expecting to have significant upward growth post-2026 there is plenty of time for the league to get things right on and off the field of play. 

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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3 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

The biggest danger is having so many fantasists around that expect the league to be able to run before it learns to walk and think CanPL is in some huge competition with MLS. As long as the investors pay no attention to them and are only expecting to have significant upward growth post-2026 there is plenty of time for the league to get things right on and off the field of play. 

Most would agree with that. We're in CPL 1.0 era. I expect the league to go "2.0" as soon as the 2027 season riding the high of the World Cup

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The league isn’t even fully professional. If anyone watched the YouTube video that Camargo and Niko posted, Camargo was going out to job interviews. He was one of the best players in the league last year and has to work a part time job.  This should not be the case. If the league truly wants to develop talent, and sell players off we need these guys focus on football 100% during the season.

Lets speculate the starting 11 eats up 60% of the cap. The average starter would make around 40k. However if we bump the cap even too 1M. That number jumps to 55ish which makes it significantly easier to live as a full time pro. I hope the league tries to bump up the cap even slightly ASAP. It makes a big difference for the players and hardly any difference for multi millionaires. 

If we are looking at 2026 as the year this league should take off. Even bumping to cap to 1M would only cost the owners 1.5M from now till then. 

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1 hour ago, Reign said:

The league isn’t even fully professional. If anyone watched the YouTube video that Camargo and Niko posted, Camargo was going out to job interviews. He was one of the best players in the league last year and has to work a part time job.  This should not be the case. If the league truly wants to develop talent, and sell players off we need these guys focus on football 100% during the season.

Lets speculate the starting 11 eats up 60% of the cap. The average starter would make around 40k. However if we bump the cap even too 1M. That number jumps to 55ish which makes it significantly easier to live as a full time pro. I hope the league tries to bump up the cap even slightly ASAP. It makes a big difference for the players and hardly any difference for multi millionaires. 

If we are looking at 2026 as the year this league should take off. Even bumping to cap to 1M would only cost the owners 1.5M from now till then. 

Give it another year and they will probably look to increase the cap. If there's growth in revenue next season that should help the cap increase. 

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In a perfect world it would be nice if these guys could supplement their income through youth coaching if so inclined. Particularly mid 20s players who want to stick in the game. I've been wanting the cap to increase, but paying for coaching badges, running some clinics, and doing so local scouting of youth clubs would also be a good way to spend another $250k per year or so. For all I know this is already happening.

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