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@ted, for me the biggest thing that makes me not jump to the conclusion that CPL will live forever is the fact that MLS was a 10 team league that averaged over 17,000 attendance in year 1. That is 4x the level CPL had in year 1. By year 5, after the curiosity faded a bit MLS was averaging under 14,000 and a year later they were shedding teams and the league almost folded. So why exactly should CPL be invincible?

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And on the topic of JDG, the weirdest thing is that when he came to Ottawa as a player he was talking about the rumoured new League as a reason he came back to Canada to play. I guess it didn’t fit whatever he had imagined and he couldn’t get past that.

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

@ted, for me the biggest thing that makes me not jump to the conclusion that CPL will live forever is the fact that MLS was a 10 team league that averaged over 17,000 attendance in year 1. That is 4x the level CPL had in year 1. By year 5, after the curiosity faded a bit MLS was averaging under 14,000 and a year later they were shedding teams and the league almost folded. So why exactly should CPL be invincible?

The question should be was does the CPL aspire to be in the long run from a stadium, attendance, salary, revenue etc stand point?Answering those questions will help decide how they move going forward. If you aspire to be a CFL type league where you have 15-20K plus a game in the stands, 16 + teams in my eyes are not realistic, but to do that you are going to be faced with having to get stadiums built which will be no easy task. In the cases of Calgary and Edmonton, if they think they can draw more ie the at least the 15-20K and the league is taking off, moves to McMahon and Commonwealth could be in the cards.

If you are ok with it being a USL type league with 5-10K a game with a few outliers on both ends then a bigger league would work and in many ways would be needed to cut down on travel as revenue could potentially be less from a couple standpoints. It would be interesting to see how corporate Canada would react to it. There is great potential for both paths as they offer you different things.

And yes MLS did actually fold before Lamar Hunt convinced the group to continue. At that point in time I believe the league had three partners, AEG, Lamar Hunt and Bob Kraft. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/04/12/mls-folded-for-a-few-days-in-2001-and-somehow-kept-it-a-secret-until-now/

Edited by Cblake

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People need to bear in mind that a lot of the announced attendance numbers in both the USL and CanPL are inflated for PR reasons. For the league to be sustainable and undergo growth in team numbers over the next decade or so there can't be too much red ink happening on an average paid attendance of 3000 (bear in mind FCE, Y9 and Pacific were probably well below that last season on average paid attendance). An expense item that needs 800 spectators per game to cover (and that's probably on the optimistic side) is very significant in that sort of context and if conferences could help to halve that for many/most teams it is definitely worth doing.

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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3 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

People need to bear in mind that announced attendance numbers in both the USL and CanPL are inflated for PR reasons. For the league to be sustainable and undergo growth in team numbers over the next decade or so there can't be too much red ink happening on an average paid attendance of 3000 (bear in mind FCE, Y9 and Pacific were probably well below that last season on average paid attendance). An expense item that needs 800 spectators per game to cover (and that's probably on the optimistic side) is very significant in that sort of context and if conferences could help to halve that for many/most teams it is definitely worth doing.

No, they don't need to bear it in mind. 

Your obsession with announced attendance versus paid attendance is such wasted energy. You'll never know what actual paid attendance is because you'll never have access to that information but you continually make claims and assumptions based on only the crowd shots from game broadcasts, it's pathetic. 

As you've stated, the announced attendance numbers in the USL, CPL and even major leagues like the NHL and NBA, are inflated so when comparing attendance from team to team in the same league it's perfectly appropriate to take the announced attendance as a metric of success. Perhaps it's not the most accurate metric but because it's the only one the general public and most media have access to, it's acceptable. 

Your need to continually try to guess the discrepancy in paid versus actual is old, tired and annoying. Look how much time and effort you've wasted with post after post after post. I'm excited for the upcoming season but seeing you drone on about this for month after month dampens my enthusiasm.

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57 minutes ago, The Real Marc said:

If he’s so wrong it shouldn’t affect your enthusiasm.

Thanks for the tip.

58 minutes ago, The Real Marc said:

That other leagues inflate attendance doesn’t negate the financial margins the Can PL is living on. 

You've missed the point, there's no way to know the financial margins the CPL is living on so continually speculating based on broadcast screencaps while adding the usual negative spin is unproductive, unwelcome and pointless.

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Regarding scale of attendance, any league should be able to handle a fairly large discrepancy between teams. Most leagues in fact do, where the biggest drawing clubs have 5 or 6 times more fans in the stadium than the more modest (in the top European leagues, the spread is about 15 to 80 thousand, mostly because frequently very modest sides promote).

Even in parity leagues like MLS the spread is about 15 to 45 thousand, three times difference. That would suggest that CPL would not be out of balance if some teams were drawing 4000 and others 12, from 5k to 15k. That enables you to have a league in smaller and larger markets and helps avoid having to build larger stadiums.

Though it could mean one difficulty: the stronger clubs wanting to spend part of that extra income. How is that dealt with in CFL, for example? How do you allow extra gate be spent without falsifying a salary cap?

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On 2/13/2020 at 6:43 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

Where must that come from, was it partially left over from the NASL days?

Alright, I'll stop being a massive dick to you. 

To answer the question, I don't know. I'm not 100% sure but I recall an Edmonton based V back in the day saying the club had a somewhat decent TV audience IIRC. Can any Edmonton bro confirm?

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5 hours ago, Lofty said:

In 2019, USL Championship average attendance was 4,476 and median attendance was 4,118, indicating that the average was skewed upwards by a few outliers at the top.

https://soccerstadiumdigest.com/2019-usl-championship-attendance/

CPL average attendance was 4,279 so CPL attendance is already equivalent to USL.

In the long term, I'd like to see the CPL average at least 10,000 which should still allow teams with a 7-8k average to be competitive, so let's call it 7-15k. I think that should open up a lot of potential markets.

Just as the USL average is skewed upwards by a few really successful franchises, it is also skewed downwards by the reserve teams.

The average attendance for independent, non MLS-owned, USLC teams in 2019 was 5497.

Whether the CPL attendance is equivalent or not is neither here nor there as it appears that the league is divided into three teams that have solid attendance that is a good start to build upon, and the rest that range from middling but with an upper range that is encouraging, to obviously unsustainable and needing attention. It will be interesting to see what happens in Year 2.

Also worth pointing out that Ottawa and Edmonton have shown that you can't just expect attendance to automatically increase because the team has been around and established in the community. It's really hard work to increase attendance with any sport at this level. Montreal managed to accomplish it when they were in the USL and routinely attracting 10K+ but that's the second largest city in the country.

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34 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Regarding scale of attendance, any league should be able to handle a fairly large discrepancy between teams. Most leagues in fact do, where the biggest drawing clubs have 5 or 6 times more fans in the stadium than the more modest (in the top European leagues, the spread is about 15 to 80 thousand, mostly because frequently very modest sides promote).

Even in parity leagues like MLS the spread is about 15 to 45 thousand, three times difference. That would suggest that CPL would not be out of balance if some teams were drawing 4000 and others 12, from 5k to 15k. That enables you to have a league in smaller and larger markets and helps avoid having to build larger stadiums.

Though it could mean one difficulty: the stronger clubs wanting to spend part of that extra income. How is that dealt with in CFL, for example? How do you allow extra gate be spent without falsifying a salary cap?

My assumption would be on team facilities and staff but very good question

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12 hours ago, Kent said:

@ted...So why exactly should CPL be invincible?

  1. The United States of America has a population and economy 10x bigger than ours so absolute number comparisons are not that concerning to me. The percentage drop year one to year two does, and when we see the year two numbers for CanPL we can compare.
  2. Never said they were invincible and those sort of absolute statements are not appropriate nor welcome. I'm having a civil discussion to find out what factors would lead to being pessimistic today. Today I am reasonably optimistic with nagging worries. Tomorrow the whole thing could collapse.

     

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CPL and CSB have been able to accomplish a few things that suggest sustainability:

1. Net profit does not seem to be entirely or even substantially gate driven.

2. Leveraging the high level amateur game to provide a very watchable product at $750k without having to repatriate that many players from abroad.

3. Finding a few local billionaire investors and high end sponsors.

I was young during the CSL, but is there really any comparison?

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54 minutes ago, ted said:
  1. The United States of America has a population and economy 10x bigger than ours so absolute number comparisons are not that concerning to me. The percentage drop year one to year two does, and when we see the year two numbers for CanPL we can compare.
  2. Never said they were invincible and those sort of absolute statements are not appropriate nor welcome. I'm having a civil discussion to find out what factors would lead to being pessimistic today. Today I am reasonably optimistic with nagging worries. Tomorrow the whole thing could collapse.

     

I do think the absolute numbers are relevant, because with the USA having 10x the population and 10x the money, it should be 10x easier for them to build a League that can last, and they were incredibly close to failing.

Apologies for putting words in your mouth. It sounded to me like you were asking why would people think it might fail, implying that you think it can’t fail.

I guess to answer your question about warning signals, and none of these mean they are behind where I think the League should be at this point. Attendance is low enough that a decrease could put teams in a tough spot, OneSoccer and CPL still feel like things that if you mention them to a stranger on the street they will not know anything of it, onesoccer subscription numbers are not known which suggests the numbers aren’t high enough to brag about and now they are being given to SSH presumably to pump up viewership.

I don’t know if I have a pessimistic, optimistic, or realistic view of CPL. There is still a LOT to be seen. I can imagine it folding in 3 or 4 years and I can imagine it growing to a three (yes, three) tier pyramid with promotion and relegation with 16 teams in the top tier and dozens in the third tier (8 to 16 in D2). I can also imagine everything in between those scenarios. I am just excited as hell to watch it unfold.

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8 minutes ago, Kent said:

OneSoccer and CPL still feel like things that if you mention them to a stranger on the street they will not know anything of it, onesoccer subscription numbers are not known which suggests the numbers aren’t high enough to brag about and now they are being given to SSH presumably to pump up viewership.

DAZN also gives content away free to pump up subscribers and viewers. They just went over 8 million subscribers worldwide in 9 markets. Very high profile events like boxing I think helps drive this.

We actually do not know what the deal is between OneSoccer  and the clubs when it comes to giving away "free" subscriptions. Perhaps clubs get more from OneSoccer, or some incentive, if they can deliver more season ticket holders as potential viewers. 

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1 hour ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

CPL and CSB have been able to accomplish a few things that suggest sustainability:

1. Net profit does not seem to be entirely or even substantially gate driven.

2. Leveraging the high level amateur game to provide a very watchable product at $750k without having to repatriate that many players from abroad.

3. Finding a few local billionaire investors and high end sponsors.

I was young during the CSL, but is there really any comparison?

From what I've seen, no.   The league seems much better capitalized, I went to a lot of the Intrepid games and the team seemed to be run on a shoestring (not sure how the other teams were run), obviously with the  media explosion since then , the media coverage is better, information is more available, i find everything I've seen with the CanPL so far to be very professional in comparison.

Edited by MM3/MM2/MM

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31 minutes ago, MM3/MM2/MM said:

From what I've seen, no.   The league seems much better capitalized, I went to a lot of the Intrepid games and the team seemed to be run on a shoestring (not sure the other teams were run), obviously with the  media explosion since then , the media coverage is better, information is more available, i find everything I've seen with the CanPL so far to be very professional in comparison.

As an old Hamilton Steeler fan, I fully agree with this post.

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11 hours ago, Lofty said:

In 2019, USL Championship average attendance was 4,476 and median attendance was 4,118, indicating that the average was skewed upwards by a few outliers at the top.

https://soccerstadiumdigest.com/2019-usl-championship-attendance/

CPL average attendance was 4,279 so CPL attendance is already equivalent to USL.

In the long term, I'd like to see the CPL average at least 10,000 which should still allow teams with a 7-8k average to be competitive, so let's call it 7-15k. I think that should open up a lot of potential markets.

USL Championship also had its number taken down by the MLS II reserve teams that drew pretty badly, of which 4 of them averaged under a 1,000. MLS reserve teams held down eight of the bottom nine spots in attendance. If you take out the MLS reserve teams the rest of the league averaged 5,332 a game.  https://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?p=10517

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1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

SALARY CAP

It's official, in the press conference Gil Marin said "tenemos un salary cap muy estricto que es de 750mil dólares canadienses brutos..." 

That's 750 thousand before taxes. 

I find it low. 

That's almost what TFC averages per player. So not unreasonable for a salary cap for the maximum salary per player.

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4 hours ago, Cblake said:

USL Championship also had its number taken down by the MLS II reserve teams that drew pretty badly, of which 4 of them averaged under a 1,000. MLS reserve teams held down eight of the bottom nine spots in attendance. If you take out the MLS reserve teams the rest of the league averaged 5,332 a game.  https://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?p=10517

Best to look at just the league to league numbers overall, when you start cherry picking it becomes irrelevant - those MLS II teams are USL franchises after all just like the minor league USL affiliates and the Independants.

Was quite happy this year that the first year CPL had a near equivalent average to the 10 year old USL and it will only go up from here for Canada's D1 league, just as it did for MLS from their early years.

Edited by CDNFootballer

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3 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Was quite happy this year that the first year CPL had a near equivalent average to the 10 year old USL and it will only go up from here for Canada's D1 league, just as it did for MLS from their early years.

Um, what early MLS years are you talking about exactly? Attendance in MLS went down in years 2, 3, 4, and 5. It wasn’t until year 16 that MLS attendance surpassed its year 1 level.

If attendance in CPL increases this season, that will be an accomplishment that MLS did not achieve.

For fun I looked up other notable leagues. Original NASL also declined in year 2. USL (its 2011 incarnation) and the more recent NASL both increased attendance numbers in year 2. I couldn’t find numbers for the original CSL.

Source: All numbers from Wikipedia, no screenshots of crowds were examined.

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