Unofficial CPL fan survey

[JerryUnderscore]

I'm not trying to be negative about the CPL.  I'm very excited for what it will look like when it arrives.

I guess my concern is that I don't want people to have unrealistic expectations of what it will be and then become disenfranchised with the league because it didn't live up to what they were hoping for.  Some people may switch their allegiance from MLS to CPL, but we're not going to see a mass exodus.  We're not going to see 20,000 seat stadiums packed out in the first few years.  We're probably not going to have a 12 team league within the first five years.

What we're going to have is a small 6-8 team league to start that is playing mostly in 6,000-10,000 seat stadiums and getting decent (albeit not packed) crowds.  The quality of the league will probably be somewhere slightly higher than USL/NASL, but still significantly below MLS.  But the game day experience will be fun, the games themselves will be enjoyable and slowly over time, as more Canadians get into watching professional soccer, the league will grow.

[dyslexic nam]

3 hours ago, JerryUnderscore said:

I'm not trying to be negative about the CPL.  I'm very excited for what it will look like when it arrives.

I guess my concern is that I don't want people to have unrealistic expectations of what it will be and then become disenfranchised with the league because it didn't live up to what they were hoping for.  Some people may switch their allegiance from MLS to CPL, but we're not going to see a mass exodus.  We're not going to see 20,000 seat stadiums packed out in the first few years.  We're probably not going to have a 12 team league within the first five years.

What we're going to have is a small 6-8 team league to start that is playing mostly in 6,000-10,000 seat stadiums and getting decent (albeit not packed) crowds.  The quality of the league will probably be somewhere slightly higher than USL/NASL, but still significantly below MLS.  But the game day experience will be fun, the games themselves will be enjoyable and slowly over time, as more Canadians get into watching professional soccer, the league will grow.

Ironically, what you described is pretty much what I think everyone on here is expecting, so the chance of immediate disenfranchisement due to unreasonable expectations seems quite low.  I also don't think that the picture you portrayed excludes the idea of people switching allegiances.  Look, if people want to watch the best footy they can, they don't tune in to MLS.  It has come leaps and bounds since the beginning, but it is still a far cry from the top leagues.  Want to watch the best of the best?  Tune in to La Liga, EPL, Serie A or Bundesliga.  If you consistently watch MLS, it is precisely because you are interested in some degree of local soccer.  And insofar as that is true, there is no reason why Canadian fans wouldn't migrate to a Canadian league populated with Canadian teams fielding Canadian players. It may not be top footy - but neither is MLS.

[ironcub14]

Hey guys, just catching up after a week away from the desktop computer. Wanted to make some quick points on the last two pages on this thread.

1) Regarding the survey, agreed with the general sentiment that the respondents to this survey are biased, in that they obviously have an interest in CPL if they voluntarily chose to take a CPL survey that they came across the internet.

2) However, nobody has alluded to what I thought was by far the most interesting result out of Homer's survey, and a variable that is less subject to bias than any other question in his survey: the city where people responded from. Homer and the rest of us did a pretty good job of distributing this survey on all social media platforms, even on supporter forums for Montreal and Vancouver.

Assuming that we've done a pretty good job of reaching as much Canadian soccer fans across Canada, we can make a decent assumption that the respondent location is a fairly un-skewed variable from Homer's survey. I believe Toronto was the highest answer on that survey, at 16% if I remember correctly, and reflective of its share of Canada's population. Based on this alone, I honestly believe Toronto makes a pretty good case for a CPL entry. Paul Beirne and Scott Mitchell can do fancier econometric projections on attendance if they like, but I'm already fairly confident on this metric alone.

3) My final point specifically about Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, to address some of the points raised in this thread, would be that very few people are going to actually 100% drop supporting their MLS team to exclusively support a CPL team. I don't know a single person in Toronto that would do that.

I do know dozens of people who would be willing to support both TFC and a CPL Toronto team at the same time, and then go from there. Some people, though not all obviously, in the TFC SGs are buzzing about this, about the launch of CPL. You may not see it much publicly, but it's most definitely happening beneath the surface. You can probably understand why so.

[ironcub14]

One last point to add, I totally understand that CPL will be driven by a general CFL and NHL-following general sport fan types, mainstream-like, in the non-MLS cities. And that in MLS cities, if CPL were to arrive, it would be far more driven by MLS supporter types and Canadian soccer fans that enjoy following CanMNT and CanWNT.

The marketing and the business aspects and everything else would have to reflect the fact that CPL would appeal to different type of a fanbase in MLS cities vs. non-MLS cities. I have to remind myself of this often as well.

And the fact that a CPL Toronto team would have to unite TFC supporters, Voyageurs AND mainstream Canadian soccer fans into following a team that will be playing at a lower level than TFC is precisely why I will always make the case for a downtown Toronto team in CPL first, and then consider teams in the suburbs or the boroughs later on. The stadium has to be really easily accessible, and downtown TO is more accessible for all those within the GTA than any other location in the GTA.

[JerryUnderscore]

4 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Ironically, what you described is pretty much what I think everyone on here is expecting, so the chance of immediate disenfranchisement due to unreasonable expectations seems quite low.  I also don't think that the picture you portrayed excludes the idea of people switching allegiances.  Look, if people want to watch the best footy they can, they don't tune in to MLS.  It has come leaps and bounds since the beginning, but it is still a far cry from the top leagues.  Want to watch the best of the best?  Tune in to La Liga, EPL, Serie A or Bundesliga.  If you consistently watch MLS, it is precisely because you are interested in some degree of local soccer.  And insofar as that is true, there is no reason why Canadian fans wouldn't migrate to a Canadian league populated with Canadian teams fielding Canadian players. It may not be top footy - but neither is MLS.

Upon re-reading this thread, it appears everything I'm reacting against has come from dsqpr.  He said the following in three separate posts:

 

"I think that is a fantastic result for CPL. Hell, the league doesn't even exist yet and MLS has been around for 20 years and current MLS fans plan to support both equally?! What will happen to that number once CPL actually exists?! A football fan pretty much never supports two teams in the same market; MLS is going to be dropped like a hot potato!"

"I was obviously exaggerating with my 'hot potato' comment but I was serious about the demise of MLS in Canada. If CPL manages to get off to a good start then I think it will get steadily stronger and there will be a steady bleed of fans from MLS to CPL -- to the point where MLS in those Canadian markets is no longer profitable. At which point the MLS franchise will be sold."

"Yeah, that is a projected minimum 16% drain from MLS to CPL long before CPL has even kicked a ball. Those numbers are only going to get better for CPL."

 

These are the kinds of comments I find to be unrealistic.  CPL won't overtake MLS, at least not anytime soon.  If there are others like dsqpr, then they might be disappointed with what CPL looks like at first.

[Complete Homer]

And to put the idea to rest that people are being completely unreasonable about MLS v CPL quality, only 2 people in the survey said they expected CPL to surpass MLS, 0.003% of the current sample

[ironcub14]

I do think that over time, let's say 2-5 years, there will be a small but growing number of fans that may decide to drop their support of their MLS club completely, if there was a competing CPL club in town. I did exaggerate above, I do know a couple of people in Toronto who already have done so or are planning to do so lolz.

However, I think that number will be small, and much more importantly, I don't think that the Big 3 MLS clubs moving out of their cities would do Canadian soccer any good at all both in the short or the long-term, nor do I think that they will ever plan to do so, whether because of CPL or not.

[Complete Homer]

The poll closes at midnight! Last chance!

[Initial B]

Thanks! I filled it out.

[Complete Homer]

The results:

http://www.northernstartingeleven.com/what-the-fans-want-results-of-the-unofficial-cpl-fan-survey/

There's a lot of subgroups I could have spent time talking about. If you have any groups you are curious about, let me know

[matty]

1 hour ago, Complete Homer said:

The results:

http://www.northernstartingeleven.com/what-the-fans-want-results-of-the-unofficial-cpl-fan-survey/

There's a lot of subgroups I could have spent time talking about. If you have any groups you are curious about, let me know

weird q: why under "What platform would you prefer to watch games, if possible?" did you not include "highlights or condensed games on a services like Snapchat or Instagram"? While I wouldn't call it a proper viewing platform, a lot of organisations do very well thanks to those. I'm kind of curious to see how that option would do especially with the U40 crowd.

Find "If you are currently an MLS fan, how would a CPL team in your market affect your fandom?" interesting. I think back to Manning's comments about Toronto having a second team and find it concerning that so few people here would fully jump ship. Also to the 26.21% that would support both equally: HOW?

[Complete Homer]

7 hours ago, matty said:

weird q: why under "What platform would you prefer to watch games, if possible?" did you not include "highlights or condensed games on a services like Snapchat or Instagram"? While I wouldn't call it a proper viewing platform, a lot of organisations do very well thanks to those. I'm kind of curious to see how that option would do especially with the U40 crowd.

Find "If you are currently an MLS fan, how would a CPL team in your market affect your fandom?" interesting. I think back to Manning's comments about Toronto having a second team and find it concerning that so few people here would fully jump ship. Also to the 26.21% that would support both equally: HOW?

I didn't include that, but it could be a q in a follow up

As for the other q... I have a bit of a different take. Your asking people if they'd support an imaginary team over something they've been watching  for a decade, a third saying they'd put their support with CPL and another quarter saying they would support both equally on day 1 of a CPL team moving in, that's a lot of support IMO. 

[Kent]

18 hours ago, matty said:

Also to the 26.21% that would support both equally: HOW?

Easy. I am not a season ticket holder for my MLS club. Today was my third TFC game that I attended. I have room to support another team at that level.

[matty]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

Easy. I am not a season ticket holder for my MLS club. Today was my third TFC game that I attended. I have room to support another team at that level.

Fair point but I've gotta a question: TFC and Toronto CPL are playing at the exact same time, which do you watch on TV?

[Bison44]

Whoever is playing more canadians.  

[Gopherbashi]

54 minutes ago, matty said:

Fair point but I've gotta a question: TFC and Toronto CPL are playing at the exact same time, which do you watch on TV?

Trick question.  CPL won't be on TV.

[matty]

1 hour ago, Gopherbashi said:

Trick question.  CPL won't be on TV.

this guy is king

[ironcub14]

12 hours ago, matty said:

Fair point but I've gotta a question: TFC and Toronto CPL are playing at the exact same time, which do you watch on TV?

Picture in picture, easy peasy.

[Kent]

13 hours ago, matty said:

Fair point but I've gotta a question: TFC and Toronto CPL are playing at the exact same time, which do you watch on TV?

Tough call, but I will watch both eventually. I would probably watch the CPL team live (on TV I mean) and record the TFC game and watch it right afterwards. But it's possible that would be reversed if I think people are more likely to be texting me spoilers for the TFC game.

[ironcub14]

On 2017-07-29 at 11:53 PM, Complete Homer said:

The results:

http://www.northernstartingeleven.com/what-the-fans-want-results-of-the-unofficial-cpl-fan-survey/

There's a lot of subgroups I could have spent time talking about. If you have any groups you are curious about, let me know

Loved the survey, and the reference to ANOVA lol. I'm re-studying some of the stats stuff I did back in school for work at the moment, and I'll be in touch if I think I can help in any way.

One quick thing about the TV/streaming question, and why Sportsnet would be such a boon for CPL: I think only a small subset of the population would ever prefer a CPL Live over TSN/Sportsnet.

When the game's on TSN/RSN, you can either watch it on cable yourself, watch it on cable if your parents have it at home (which explains the U20 crowd in your survey), or either use your own, or borrow your parents' or your friend's account and password for Rogers/Bell/cable provider/TSN GO/SN Now, and watch it on any of your streaming devices. I don't think many people actually know this, but if your parents or friends have cable, you can use their Rogers/Bell online pw and use it to stream anything from TSN or RSN's website/app.

With MLS or CPL Live, you get that league, and that's literally all you get.

[Complete Homer]

7 hours ago, ironcub14 said:

Loved the survey, and the reference to ANOVA lol. I'm re-studying some of the stats stuff I did back in school for work at the moment, and I'll be in touch if I think I can help in any way.

One quick thing about the TV/streaming question, and why Sportsnet would be such a boon for CPL: I think only a small subset of the population would ever prefer a CPL Live over TSN/Sportsnet.

When the game's on TSN/RSN, you can either watch it on cable yourself, watch it on cable if your parents have it at home (which explains the U20 crowd in your survey), or either use your own, or borrow your parents' or your friend's account and password for Rogers/Bell/cable provider/TSN GO/SN Now, and watch it on any of your streaming devices. I don't think many people actually know this, but if your parents or friends have cable, you can use their Rogers/Bell online pw and use it to stream anything from TSN or RSN's website/app.

With MLS or CPL Live, you get that league, and that's literally all you get.

True, and after thinking about it, I think I see why most people would prefer cable, I think I was just surprised that it was something so against the rhetoric these days