CPL new teams speculation

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

17 hours ago, Obinna said:

....These D3 teams would face a monumental trip from Winnipeg to Calgary, or Cape Breton to Gatineau. It's not realistic given the budgets they'd have....

...and that the players would have regular jobs and would be in relationships so hence would have limited leisure time available in which to participate in this level of soccer. Anything more than 1 hour happening regularly each way to away games starts to be a major issue with the players in that sort of context. There already are provincial leagues in BC (PCSL), Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba so it's not at all clear why there is a need to form any new leagues. Answers for why there may be a perceived need to do this and not simply use promotion and relegation from and to the best local district amateur leagues can be directed to the Society for Becoming Apoplectic over Team Names such as Sporting Khalsa or Lethbridge Croatia.

[Ansem]

2 hours ago, Reign said:

Yeah 9M seems steep at this point. It also probably means we will never see Pro/Rel. 

You can still do pro/rel but there are ways to protect CPL clubs initial investments like it's being done elsewhere around the world

1st version

1. No "automatic" promotion or relegation
2. Have Pro/rel playoffs (could be bottom CPL vs. Top D2), depending on the result, nothing changes or they swap
3. CPL bottom team will beneficiate from the head start, if you lose to D2, you deserve relegation in my opinion

 

When D2 is at a better level on the pitch, finances and infrastructure, then you change your pro/rel formula

2nd version

1. Bottom CPL clubs enters a playoffs round with the D2 clubs.
2. Winner (perhaps "and" finalists) claim the CPL spot in play

 

When D2 clubs closed the gap enough

3rd version

1. Automatic relegation
2. D2 Promotion playoff

 

There needs to be a "progressive approach to "Pro/rel"

[Reign]

1 minute ago, Ansem said:

You can still do pro/rel but there are ways to protect CPL clubs initial investments like it's being done elsewhere around the world

1st version

1. No "automatic" promotion or relegation
2. Have Pro/rel playoffs (could be bottom CPL vs. Top D2), depending on the result, nothing changes or they swap
3. CPL bottom team will beneficiate from the head start, if you lose to D2, you deserve relegation in my opinion

 

When D2 is at a better level on the pitch, finances and infrastructure, then you change your pro/rel formula

2nd version

1. Bottom CPL clubs enters a playoffs round with the D2 clubs.
2. Winner (perhaps "and" finalists) claim the CPL spot in play

 

When D2 clubs closed the gap enough

3rd version

1. Automatic relegation
2. D2 Promotion playoff

 

There needs to be a "progressive approach to "Pro/rel"

Maybe I’m missing your point, but I don’t see where the initial investment is protected. Even if you aren’t automatically relegated and you get relegated do to playoff you don’t get your 9M back you paid to play in D1. Expansion fees generally climb as the league grows as well. Maybe the 14th team is asked for 20M. 

[Ansem]

1 minute ago, Reign said:

Maybe I’m missing your point, but I don’t see where the initial investment is protected. Even if you aren’t automatically relegated and you get relegated do to playoff you don’t get your 9M back you paid to play in D1. Expansion fees generally climb as the league grows as well. Maybe the 14th team is asked for 20M. 

All the investors were warned that pro/rel was coming. By starting a club, they know full well the risks. However they get a valuable head start which means that in my first version of pro/rel, it would be a daunting task for a Charlottetown club to knock Valour out of CPL.

[Reign]

1 minute ago, Ansem said:

All the investors were warned that pro/rel was coming. By starting a club, they know full well the risks. However they get a valuable head start which means that in my first version of pro/rel, it would be a daunting task for a Charlottetown club to knock Valour out of CPL.

Okay but do we know if the initial 7 teams paid anything close to 9M ? I doubt it. If they did then I guess investors are willing to take that risk. Otherwise I feel like it’s going to be harder to get new clubs when you are asking for a huge initial investment while they will also have less time to cement their self as a D1 team. 

[Ansem]

5 minutes ago, Reign said:

Okay but do we know if the initial 7 teams paid anything close to 9M ? I doubt it. If they did then I guess investors are willing to take that risk. Otherwise I feel like it’s going to be harder to get new clubs when you are asking for a huge initial investment while they will also have less time to cement their self as a D1 team. 

Initial 7 are unlikely to have paid that price which was pre-everything. (Mediapor, sponsors, CONCACAF league, etc...)

The $9M could be explained by the Mediapro deal and sponsorships that quite frankly must have exceeded even the league's expectation. The CONCACAF League spot is also very valuable and wasn't expected as well.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

10 minutes ago, Reign said:

Okay but do we know if the initial 7 teams paid anything close to 9M ? I doubt it. If they did then I guess investors are willing to take that risk. Otherwise I feel like it’s going to be harder to get new clubs when you are asking for a huge initial investment while they will also have less time to cement their self as a D1 team. 

5M was the number that was often mentioned for how much it cost to launch a franchise in the league's first season. This was often mistaken on here for an annual budget leading to all kinds of weird and wonderful predictions about player budgets, but there is known to have been a franchise fee running into the millions. The justification for the extra 4M at this point would be to compensate the original seven for taking a slice of league revenues and sponsorships over the next decade or so.

[Obinna]

@Ansem when you say D2, are you referring to L1O or PLSQ? I don't think any of these clubs will organically grow financially to the point where they can engage in CPL-level travel. 

[Ansem]

53 minutes ago, Obinna said:

@Ansem when you say D2, are you referring to L1O or PLSQ? I don't think any of these clubs will organically grow financially to the point where they can engage in CPL-level travel. 

By D2, I mean the league that CPL said they would launch post 2026, not D3...that's too big of a gap. There's a need for an in-between league

[Obinna]

5 minutes ago, Ansem said:

By D2, I mean the league that CPL said they would launch post 2026, not D3...that's too big of a gap. There's a need for an in-between league

Okay that makes sense, thanks!

[Ansem]

7 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Okay that makes sense, thanks!

No problem.

The more I watch CPL, the more I see the need for that D2 league. You get the sense that CPL as a whole have an idea of where they want to be quality-wise.

Looking at some incomplete rosters and internationals spots not yet filled, some guys that you can tell shouldn't be starters on some teams will get pushed to the bench, and the  bench guys will need somewhere to play that isn't D3 as they get push out over time. The Gold Cup, CCL & CL shows that there's international talent available in CONCACAF that aren't that expensive to acquire if you know where to look.

CPL allows 49% of roster to be foreigners and doesn't trap you at having 6 Canadians at all time. 3 can be sub out to add to the 5 foreigners potentially already on the pitch. Over time, that D2 will indeed be needed for Canadians that won't be able to stay on CPL rosters and in need of that league to prepare them for the Premier league.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

Alternatively, they are probably very much serious about being mainly about younger Canadian players and the launch season has shown there is no huge need to bring in lots of imports from clubs nobody has heard of to have a watchable level of soccer or to overspend on bringing back washed up has beens who got a few CMNT caps a few years back.

Edited July 4, 2019 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Unnamed Trialist]

On 7/3/2019 at 12:52 PM, Rintaran said:

Are we going stadium to downtown of the city they're in, or downtown of the nearest city people from the far end of the country know about? Asking because Pacific is only 2.5 km from downtown Langford. You have to go through either Saanich or View Royal and Esquimalt before finally reaching the city of Victoria and its downtown.  

 @ted Amalgamate already!

Thing about Westhills, it is at the extreme south west of the population core of Greater Victoria. I doubt there are 20,000 west and south-west of Westhills, while east and north-east you have most of the capital region: there are over 250,000 or more east and north-east of the stadium. That is hard, because with no real public transit, you are forcing people to commute to get there. And in Victoria, where many people are tired of commuting in and out, that is a problem. 

For Pacific, at first they tried to sell the idea that they would be a Van Isle team. That would have meant fans coming from up island, they even did promos as far north as Nanaimo. But I would like to see how many fans actually come down from north of the Malahat (for those who don't know, the highway running north, often congested, as its curvy and narrow in sections). 

I know it is terribly unfair to Pacific, and to the effort made, but a team at Royal Athletic in central Victoria, in the midst of older neighbourhoods, with proper additional stands, would right now be drawing 30-40% more fans, as I see it. 3000 at Westhills would be 4000 at RAP.

Edited July 4, 2019 by Unnamed Trialist

[Reign]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thing about Westhills, it is at the extreme south west of the population core of Greater Victoria. I doubt there are 20,000 west and south-west of Westhills, while east and north-east you have most of the capital region: there are over 250,000 or more east and north-east of the stadium. That is hard, because with no real public transit, you are forcing people to commute to get there. And in Victoria, where many people are tired of commuting in and out, that is a problem. 

For Pacific, at first they tried to sell the idea that they would be a Van Isle team. That would have meant fans coming from up island, they even did promos as far north as Nanaimo. But I would like to see how many fans actually come down from north of the Malahat (for those who don't know, the highway running north, often congested, as its curvy and narrow in sections). 

I know it is terribly unfair to Pacific, and to the effort made, but a team at Royal Athletic in central Victoria, in the midst of older neighbourhoods, with proper additional stands, would right now be drawing 30-40% more fans, as I see it. 3000 at Westhills would be 4000 at RAP.

Do you think two teams on the island is unrealistic ? 

[Cheeta]

6 hours ago, Ansem said:

Initial 7 are unlikely to have paid that price which was pre-everything. (Mediapor, sponsors, CONCACAF league, etc...)

The $9M could be explained by the Mediapro deal and sponsorships that quite frankly must have exceeded even the league's expectation. The CONCACAF League spot is also very valuable and wasn't expected as well.

The CPL lead up and launch has been more untidy than a Valour back-three but things have come together, and are continuing to come together it seems, rather well.  Better than rather well.  If the powers that be, who've commited themselves to expansion think the market will bare a $9M expansion fee (if this is true) then their track record so far indicates they might have an idea what they're talking about.   

Two thing; 

1st).  No inside knowledge but I believe the expansion franchises which will be announced this fall probably got in at a more bargain price.  Yes, I do suspect that there are as good as done deals out there already. 

2nd).  If the expansion fee is based on league sponsorship revenue then the number shouldn't exclude anyone who wasn't a reasonable candidate earlier this year.  The expansion fee could be deferred, simply paid from the teams stake in that revenue over X number of years.  And we have to keep in mind that this is a salary capped league who's original business model likely didn't include any league revenues.  Just because things have worked out better than expected doesn't change that. 

And it's Year 1.  More sponsorships will be coming on board next year and bring money along with them.

Sorry.  I have a Third thing.

3rd).  No Ottawa Fury in the CPL.  Ever.   

[CDNFootballer]

There's no way its a 9 million expansion fee for a CPL club, that's likely the expected costs for the club expansion fee plus the start up costs/year one budget to get a club up and running for the first season.

[ted]

1 hour ago, Reign said:

Do you think two teams on the island is unrealistic ? 

Yes (for the immediate future.)

There should be two teams on the Island in the D3 league they are building but Nanaimo is a long way off from being able to support a CanPL team.

[Stanley]

Can't wait for Nanaimo City FC United!

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

11 hours ago, Cheeta said:

...1st).  No inside knowledge but I believe the expansion franchises which will be announced this fall probably got in at a more bargain price.  Yes, I do suspect that there are as good as done deals out there already...

It is actually not clear that any expansion franchises will be announced this year, because the fall would be late in the day to be doing that in terms of building momentum on season ticket sales and corporate interest. For something to happen on a 6 month timeline there also needs to be a viable stadium plan in place and that's usually not easy to do. Saskatoon is the only city where we are seeing the sort of activity you would expect to see less than a year out from the first game. Having said that I would agree that the $9 million figure probably isn't as substantial as it sounds as the year one budget and start up costs are probably included and a large slice of it could simply wind up being a case of not receiving a share of CSB revenues for something like the first decade.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Rintaran]

15 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thing about Westhills, it is at the extreme south west of the population core of Greater Victoria. I doubt there are 20,000 west and south-west of Westhills, while east and north-east you have most of the capital region: there are over 250,000 or more east and north-east of the stadium. That is hard, because with no real public transit, you are forcing people to commute to get there. And in Victoria, where many people are tired of commuting in and out, that is a problem. 

For Pacific, at first they tried to sell the idea that they would be a Van Isle team. That would have meant fans coming from up island, they even did promos as far north as Nanaimo. But I would like to see how many fans actually come down from north of the Malahat (for those who don't know, the highway running north, often congested, as its curvy and narrow in sections). 

I know it is terribly unfair to Pacific, and to the effort made, but a team at Royal Athletic in central Victoria, in the midst of older neighbourhoods, with proper additional stands, would right now be drawing 30-40% more fans, as I see it. 3000 at Westhills would be 4000 at RAP.

I agree, they would draw considerably better at a renovated Royal Athletic. Any sign the of the Harbourcats giving it up anytime soon?

14 hours ago, Reign said:

Do you think two teams on the island is unrealistic ? 

Absolutely unrealistic in the near-to-medium term for D1.

Much like Ted, I can see two D3 teams, one in Victoria & one in Nanaimo surviving fairly well alongside Pacific FC.

I could also see a D1 (Langford/Victoria), D2 (Nanaimo), and two D3s (Saanich & Langford), depending on how everything plays out, post World Cup 2026.

[ted]

2 hours ago, Rintaran said:

Any sign the of the Harbourcats giving it up anytime soon?

Nope, and even if they did, I doubt the City of Victoria would put anywhere near the same amount of money into it as Langford is putting into Westhills.

[Rintaran]

2 minutes ago, ted said:

Nope, and even if they did, I doubt the City of Victoria would put anywhere near the same amount of money into it as Langford is putting into Westhills.

This is what I expected. So long as the Harbourcats continue at Royal Athletic, there's a close to 0% chance of Pacific moving there. The Harbourcats are well attended, and have games almost every day through the summer.

[davey_twelve]

20 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

For Pacific, at first they tried to sell the idea that they would be a Van Isle team. That would have meant fans coming from up island, they even did promos as far north as Nanaimo. But I would like to see how many fans actually come down from north of the Malahat (for those who don't know, the highway running north, often congested, as its curvy and narrow in sections). 

Small sample size I know but the STH behind me come down from Nanaimo and they mentioned they wouldn't come if games were in Victoria proper.

[m-g-williams]

21 hours ago, Cheeta said:

The CPL lead up and launch has been more untidy than a Valour back-three but things have come together, and are continuing to come together it seems, rather well.  Better than rather well.  If the powers that be, who've commited themselves to expansion think the market will bare a $9M expansion fee (if this is true) then their track record so far indicates they might have an idea what they're talking about.   

Two thing; 

1st).  No inside knowledge but I believe the expansion franchises which will be announced this fall probably got in at a more bargain price.  Yes, I do suspect that there are as good as done deals out there already. 

2nd).  If the expansion fee is based on league sponsorship revenue then the number shouldn't exclude anyone who wasn't a reasonable candidate earlier this year.  The expansion fee could be deferred, simply paid from the teams stake in that revenue over X number of years.  And we have to keep in mind that this is a salary capped league who's original business model likely didn't include any league revenues.  Just because things have worked out better than expected doesn't change that. 

And it's Year 1.  More sponsorships will be coming on board next year and bring money along with them.

Sorry.  I have a Third thing.

3rd).  No Ottawa Fury in the CPL.  Ever.   

My only disagreement would be about Ottawa. I think that the management in the front office *cough* *cough* JDG *cough* and others within OSEG need to be sacked to get the relationship with CPL/CSA back on track, no question. But I don't think the team itself should be burned because of the idiotic decisions of the powers that be. 

Like it or not, the Fury are and will still be the best soccer game in town. We need them in on this . . . somehow. 

[Cheeta]

Don't get me wrong, absolutely agree, I don't doubt there is going to be a CPL team in Ottawa.  And quite rightly.  Has to be a primary target for this league it's just that l think CPL HQ is waiting for the Fury to die.  Simple as that.

Never know though.  Watch them be the 1st expansion franchise.