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CPL new teams speculation

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1 hour ago, YEG Round Baller said:

We need to stop fixating on certain numbers, or certain cities, or certain rivalry possibilities. The ONLY thing that matters is financial stability. It is okay to only add one team every four years if that is what is necessary to create a stable, long-lasting, viable league. Take note of the CFL's 1990s United States Expansion project and then do the exact opposite.

It was just a fun question to stir up some debate. of course everyone wants the league to be stable, it's just interesting to get people's takes on how aggressive or not they think the league will be with adding new teams.

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1 hour ago, lazlo_80 said:

It was just a fun question to stir up some debate. of course everyone wants the league to be stable, it's just interesting to get people's takes on how aggressive or not they think the league will be with adding new teams.

I think they will be aggressive until about 12 teams, then start planning D2:

Phase 1: Quebec City (Dynamo de Quebec?), Ottawa & Saskatoon coming aboard, then a couple more in the GTA (probably off the bones of a couple of the bigger L1O teams) - eta: 2022

Phase 2: Merge PLSQ & L1O into Can2E (CanPL2 - East), start western league (Can2W) with T-Bay Chill, WSA, Foothills & all. - eta 2026

Phase 3: Start pro/rel with pulling the top 4 teams from Can2 into CanPL in the first year with west & east divisions. Bottom ranked in each division goes down to their respective areas while the winner comes up. eta: 2032

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32 minutes ago, T_Bison said:

I think they will be aggressive until about 12 teams, then start planning D2:

Phase 1: Quebec City (Dynamo de Quebec?), Ottawa & Saskatoon coming aboard, then a couple more in the GTA (probably off the bones of a couple of the bigger L1O teams) - eta: 2022

Phase 2: Merge PLSQ & L1O into Can2E (CanPL2 - East), start western league (Can2W) with T-Bay Chill, WSA, Foothills & all. - eta 2026

Phase 3: Start pro/rel with pulling the top 4 teams from Can2 into CanPL in the first year with west & east divisions. Bottom ranked in each division goes down to their respective areas while the winner comes up. eta: 2032

What happened to Laval?

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Alex Bunbury's last newspaper article interview seemed to emphasize Quebec City as being the main target city in Quebec.

All the way through most people on here have greatly underestimated how difficult it is to put a suitable investor and a viable stadium solution together in any particular market. Their ability to put some decent soccer teams together on a budget with mainly younger and less experienced Canadian players means the league should be in good shape. Being this far along with only one questionable looking market is a considerable achievement and should drive a slow but steady rate of future expansion.  

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3 hours ago, narduch said:

It would be nice to have an even number of teams though.

Reminds me of a joke. So as not to offend anyone, it will be about two martians, who apparently have a reputation for not being too bright, checking the lights on their car. It just so happens that the martian outside doing the checking is called Paddy. Martian inside the car: "Are de headlights workin' Paddy?". "Yes dey are". "Are de side lights workin' Paddy?". "Yes dey are." "Are de indicators workin' Paddy?". "Yes dey are. No dey aren't. Yes dey are...". 😊

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2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Alex Bunbury's last newspaper article interview seemed to emphasize Quebec City as being the main target city in Quebec.

All the way through most people on here have greatly underestimated how difficult it is to put a suitable investor and a viable stadium solution together in any particular market. Their ability to put some decent soccer teams together on a budget with mainly younger and less experienced Canadian players means the league should be in good shape. Being this far along with only one questionable looking market is a considerable achievement and should drive a slow but steady rate of future expansion.  

While you are correct in saying only one questionable looking market, I really think it's too early to say one way or another about York9 (I assume that's the one you meant). At the end of a couple of years then we can start to worry I think.

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What I tend to point out where York 9 is concerned is that lower budget coast-to-coast level pro soccer in Toronto usually finds a way to keep going season after season even when actual attendance at games is usually in three digits as was the case with the CSL and APSL era Blizzard and Rockets, and subsequently with the Lynx. There is usually somebody around who is willing to squander some of their wealth on a pro soccer team and doesn't view the team as an investment. Having said that, they clearly need to do something radically different to turn things around in terms of spectator interest. More of the same is likely to lead to the same outcome. 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, T_Bison said:

I think they will be aggressive until about 12 teams, then start planning D2:

Phase 1: Quebec City (Dynamo de Quebec?), Ottawa & Saskatoon coming aboard, then a couple more in the GTA (probably off the bones of a couple of the bigger L1O teams) - eta: 2022

Phase 2: Merge PLSQ & L1O into Can2E (CanPL2 - East), start western league (Can2W) with T-Bay Chill, WSA, Foothills & all. - eta 2026

Phase 3: Start pro/rel with pulling the top 4 teams from Can2 into CanPL in the first year with west & east divisions. Bottom ranked in each division goes down to their respective areas while the winner comes up. eta: 2032

I can agree with the spirit of your plan, but I foresee the following path:

  • The CanPL will be aggressive about expanding to 10 clubs before focusing on building the regional leagues as incubators for future potential CanPL clubs
  • There will be three Regional leagues instead of two, which would mirror the structure of Canadian Junior Hockey, with no inter-regional games.
  • the Regional leagues will be based around L1O, PLSQ, and a new Western Regional League incorporating eligible clubs from the PCSL and PDL.
  • As the regional clubs mature, the CanPL will invite those clubs that meet the Div 1 standards to join the national league, similar to what seems to be going on between MLS and USL in America.

Once the CanPL reaches 16 teams and there is sufficient pressure from the Regional leagues, they may start implementing Pro-Rel.  But more likely I expect they'll have an annual draft of Regional players to join CanPL clubs to replace CanPL players that were sold on to other leagues. CanPL clubs will have to pay transfer fees to the Regional clubs they draft the players from. The Regional leagues will morph into U-20 leagues, much like Canadian Junior Hockey is now, with graduating players moving up the ladder instead of clubs. Likewise, players from the development leagues like the OPDL and SAAC will be drafted into the Regional leagues, with payments being made to those smaller clubs as well.

So in about 20 years I could see CanPL being the top Canadian league, with L1O, PLSQ, and Western Canada Soccer League supporting it from below developing the U20-U17 players. And below that are the provincial elite player development leagues developing the U16-U13 players. And at the lowest level there would be the local elite programs for the U12-U8 players with festivals showcasing their talent.

Edited by Initial B

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1 hour ago, Initial B said:

Once the CanPL reaches 16 teams and there is sufficient pressure from the Regional leagues, they may start implementing Pro-Rel. 

So what you are implying here is that the CPL will only go to 16 teams.  I talked to my "coach on the Montreal South Shore" (name and city withheld by request) and he said the CPL should just get to 16 teams and that is it. ie a closed league,  I also suggested to him that there should be a Division A and Division B just like this article:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/05/17/leagues-promotion-relegation-solution-needs-unique-australia/

Like Down Under, Canada is unique so we need a creative solution.   FWIW the coach liked the idea of Division A and Division B.

https://www.ffa.com.au/news/australian-football-working-towards-national-second-division-2021

Of interest also, Australia's plan for National Second Division.

I have talked to other people re CPL and some think it could goto 24 teams maybe 12 in D1 and 12 in D2.

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On 6/26/2019 at 1:43 PM, narduch said:

My prediction is that we will never see promotion/relegation.

You’re probably right. I do hope they continue with the acquisition/creation of  L1O style leagues across the country. A series of regional second divisions would be cool. 

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I can't see pro/rel coming within the forseeable future. 99% of Canadian sports fans have no idea what that is. 60-70% of Canadian CASUAL soccer fans have little idea what that is. We will have to have an established, highly stable CPL alongside a fairly well-established and reasonably stable D2 for some years before even thinking of pro-rel.

"What? --Our City's-- soccer team has been kicked out of the league?" Can you imagine the education required for any local market's fanbase, especially the corporate ticket-holders, as well as the sponsors?

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40 minutes ago, YEG Round Baller said:

99% of Canadian sports fans have no idea what that is. 60-70% of Canadian CASUAL soccer fans have little idea what that is.

Since when have we become Americans? :rolleyes:

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54 minutes ago, YEG Round Baller said:

I can't see pro/rel coming within the forseeable future. 99% of Canadian sports fans have no idea what that is. 60-70% of Canadian CASUAL soccer fans have little idea what that is.

That’s not true at all.

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I'm not sure that pro-rel is necessary. It would be cool and it would bring us in line with most of the world, but from a player development perspective I think Canada could do fine without it. 

Players have already moved up from league one Ontario with expansion. As we expand into Quebec I think the PLSQ will play a role in providing players.

Future expansion into BC may or may not preceed a future BC league one, but either way we'll see players from that province move into CPL as the league grows.

Eventually, we'll see some players drop out of cpl into the regional levels. 

As long as there's player movement, it's all good, right?

The problem the American's have right now, as I see it, is the gulf in quality between MLS and the USL.

The teams in major league soccer have been adding quality so quickly that most players in usl cannot realistically expect MLS teams to scoop them up. Usl is getting better but MLS expansion teams won't look to usl like cpl team look to league one Ontario. 

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1 hour ago, YEG Round Baller said:

..."What? --Our City's-- soccer team has been kicked out of the league?" Can you imagine the education required for any local market's fanbase, especially the corporate ticket-holders, as well as the sponsors?

Think the bigger issue than that is that the owners are paying a franchise fee that runs into the millions to get in. Given how difficult it is to launch a franchise it will take a long time for this to ever become a significant issue, if ever, so for now it's probably mainly about marketing. 

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1 hour ago, Obinna said:

I'm not sure that pro-rel is necessary. It would be cool and it would bring us in line with most of the world, but from a player development perspective I think Canada could do fine without it. 

Players have already moved up from league one Ontario with expansion. As we expand into Quebec I think the PLSQ will play a role in providing players.

Future expansion into BC may or may not preceed a future BC league one, but either way we'll see players from that province move into CPL as the league grows.

Eventually, we'll see some players drop out of cpl into the regional levels. 

As long as there's player movement, it's all good, right?

The problem the American's have right now, as I see it, is the gulf in quality between MLS and the USL.

The teams in major league soccer have been adding quality so quickly that most players in usl cannot realistically expect MLS teams to scoop them up. Usl is getting better but MLS expansion teams won't look to usl like cpl team look to league one Ontario. 

I have my doubts it won't impact player development. Longer sample via MLS proves otherwise. At the very least, the L1O and other lower league clubs should be comped for players who moved to CPL.

Team wise, no pro/rel means any dead weight clubs can't be easily weeded from the CPL. Again looking at MLS, it appears there is always about 1/3 of the teams have owners who don't care much and/or the fans don't care much. I rather let pro/reg decide rather than seeing the bad optics of the league takeover of a club, one owner owns multiple teams, team relocated or team folded - all things that happen too often in the MLS and CFL (where it is commonly cited as one of the reasons it is a bush league). 

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Can be creative about pro/reg if pro/reg is important to CPL's ultimate goal, and I think it should be.  You don't even have to be especially creative, just look around and steal parts of the pro/reg systems you find in other nations that look like they'd work with our systems.  

I'm sure the formula would be complicated and pro/reg would still be the exception and not the rule for every season but the potential of playing your way into CPL (or out of CPL) at least creates a distinctive impression that CPL has the desire to be a merit based league.        

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Posted (edited)

Think the key would be that all CanPL clubs would still be branded as such because the lower tier to the competition wouldn't be completely cut off from the end of season championship playoffs, but would be left with something like a single longshot wild card type entrant. Promotion and relegation would then be about having more games against the top teams and much easier end of season playoffs access.

I seriously doubt that the traditional European approach could ever be made to work in Canada or could ever be agreed to by a group of investors who have had to pay some sort of franchise fee. The traditional European approach also really isn't working all that well in Europe because you tend to wind up with two or three perennially dominant clubs in most leagues with interest and enthusiasm slowly being strangled elsewhere, so it's not fully clear to me why so many people following CanPL appear to prefer it to the North American salary cap and draft approach.

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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Posted (edited)

The real problem of course is always franchise numbers.

We have a 7 team league right now.  I always have a hard time thinking past about 12-16 teams.

For Pro-Rel to work realistically we would need at least 20 teams (12/8 or 10/10).  I just don’t see 20 teams out there.

I can definitely see 3 maybe 4 regional D3 leagues and 12-14 D1 teams.  That would truly be amazing and without a doubt cause the kind of talent flow that would guarantee we stay as a World Cup team every cycle barring a 2018 style US collapse.

Isn’t that the big end goal here?

Edited by baulderdash77

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20 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

The real problem of course is always franchise numbers.

We have a 7 team league right now.  I always have a hard time thinking past about 12-16 teams.

For Pro-Rel to work realistically we would need at least 20 teams (12/8 or 10/10).  I just don’t see 20 teams out there.

I can definitely see 3 maybe 4 regional D3 leagues and 12-14 D1 teams.  That would truly be amazing and without a doubt cause the kind of talent flow that would guarantee we stay as a World Cup team every cycle barring a 2018 style US collapse.

Isn’t that the big end goal here?

Original 7 plus Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, Surrey, Moncton, St Johns, Laval, Oshawa/Pickering, Sask, Regina, London, Quebec City, Windsor? Oakville? 

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23 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

The real problem of course is always franchise numbers.

We have a 7 team league right now.  I always have a hard time thinking past about 12-16 teams.

For Pro-Rel to work realistically we would need at least 20 teams (12/8 or 10/10).  I just don’t see 20 teams out there.

I can definitely see 3 maybe 4 regional D3 leagues and 12-14 D1 teams.  That would truly be amazing and without a doubt cause the kind of talent flow that would guarantee we stay as a World Cup team every cycle barring a 2018 style US collapse.

Isn’t that the big end goal here?

I'd like to think that by the time we get to 12-16 teams, we may start to see some more viable options start to pop up. As has been seen with Halifax, if done right, a smaller city can certainly drum up the support. Obviously a lot of things have to be done right, and I think the supporters there had a lot to do with it, but I could see smaller cities in closer proximity to multiple clubs do well in the future, especially if travelling support is more common

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If 200k is the minimum market size 20 is doable eventually even with no further use of the outer suburbs of the three MLS markets, e.g Pacific, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Windsor, London, K/W, Niagara, Hamilton, York 9, Barrie, Ottawa, Quebec City, Sherbrooke, St John's, Moncton or Saint John, Halifax.

With further use of outer suburb type communities, if they can figure out how to make something like York 9 work, you can get to well over 20. Think Paul Beirne and David Clanachan are saying the right things in interviews on target markets, if they are really serious about it, but it's way off into the future, if ever.

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