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lazlo_80

CPL new teams speculation

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4 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

You have had semi-pro soccer in the past for what it's worth.

http://www.sudburymuseums.ca/index.cfm?app=w_vmuseum&lang=en&currID=1679

It's worth about as much as your constant comparisons of CPL to CSL: not one bit.

 

 

That being said, thanks for the link to the museum. There's lots of interesting stuff on there. Not particularly relevant given literally everything has changed since the 60s & 70s, but interesting history nonetheless.

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Anyone remember when the teams for this season were announced last year? Just curious where the point is where we shouldn't expect anyone new for 2019

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Latest in Montreal from the dude who didn't buy the Alouettes:

It's a bit bizarre that Alex Bunbury would have contacted him so publicly on Twitter:

Just when it was looking like he was about to buy the Alouettes:

Would you do that if you already had other investors lined up and ready, willing and able to pull the trigger on expansion for 2020 or if you thought there was a risk that the recipient of said tweet would tell you to get lost?

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8 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Latest in Montreal from the dude who didn't buy the Alouettes:

It's a bit bizarre that Alex Bunbury would have contacted him so publicly on Twitter:

Just when it was looking like he was about to buy the Alouettes:

Would you do that if you already had other investors lined up and ready, willing and able to pull the trigger on expansion for 2020 or if you thought there was a risk that the recipient of said tweet would tell you to get lost?

It's not just bizarre.......I'd say it's discouraging in light of the noise about an imminent announcement. Hopefully he was just contacting him about a possible appearance on Dragon's Den rather than about investing in a CPL club. ;)

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9 minutes ago, Gian-Luca said:

It's not just bizarre.......I'd say it's discouraging in light of the noise about an imminent announcement. Hopefully he was just contacting him about a possible appearance on Dragon's Den rather than about investing in a CPL club. ;)

Kinda reminds me of when Dasovic contacted an English player that was from Edmonton, England through Twitter, about playing for the Canadian U23s lol

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3 hours ago, Rintaran said:

Placing Sudbury in Western Ontario is hilarious. Also I don't think its happening.

Well it certainly isn't in Eastern Ontario! ;)

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3 hours ago, lazlo_80 said:

Anyone remember when the teams for this season were announced last year? Just curious where the point is where we shouldn't expect anyone new for 2019

June/July should realistically be the latest an expansion club is added for the following season for a proper launch IMHO.

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3 hours ago, Gian-Luca said:

It's not just bizarre.......I'd say it's discouraging in light of the noise about an imminent announcement. Hopefully he was just contacting him about a possible appearance on Dragon's Den rather than about investing in a CPL club. ;)

Bunbury's so full of hot air at this point that I expect to see him floating into the sunset with a giant RE/MAX logo painted on his side.

REMAX-Balloon.png

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6 hours ago, lazlo_80 said:

Anyone remember when the teams for this season were announced last year? Just curious where the point is where we shouldn't expect anyone new for 2019

The most important thing is that all the due diligence is done before any announcement. The league has been good at that so far I think.  So, if I was the league and had teams to announce I might hold off until July 1, Canada day, end of Spring Season, or maybe a few days prior. Try to maximize the impact ...

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Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, CanSuffer said:

The most important thing is that all the due diligence is done before any announcement. The league has been good at that so far I think.  So, if I was the league and had teams to announce I might hold off until July 1, Canada day, end of Spring Season, or maybe a few days prior. Try to maximize the impact ...

That's what the NHL used to do... end of season

Edited by Ansem

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6 minutes ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

I will be ecstatic if we have a 10 team league in 2026. Some points of comparison.

NHL started (1917) with 4 teams, had 6 in season 7.
MLS started (1996) with 12 teams, had 10 in season 7.
CFL started (1958) with 9 teams, had 9 in season 7 (I didn't realize how stable CFL has been in terms of the teams in the league. It has had the same 9 teams from it's first season in 1958 until now with just a few blips where Ottawa didn't have a team, Montreal didn't have a team, or a handful of American cities had a team.)
MLB started (1901, which I gather is the first season with the American League) with 16 teams, had 16 in season 7.
NFL started (1920) with 14 teams, had 22 in season 7 (back down to 12 teams in season 8 )
NBA started (1946) with 11 teams, had 10 in season 7.

So from the big 4 plus MLS plus CFL which I think we can all agree are the 6 most successful leagues in North American team sports, 2 leagues had fewer teams in season 7 than season 1, 2 leagues were the same size in season 7 as season 1, and 2 leagues were larger in season 7 than season 1. And of course I don't have to remind anyone here that the Canadian Soccer League made it through 6 seasons.

So yeah, if the CPL gets over the hump/7-year itch solidly larger than it is now, that would be fantastic! Bonus points if there are no teams that folded by then because with the exception of the CFL (and maybe MLB, I don't have time to check right now), all the leagues above had teams fold.

Fun fact: The NHL had it's own Clausura/Apertura style in it's first season. 14 game "first half" season and an 8 game "second half" season.

All of this info is from wikipedia, and yes, the "first" season for some of those leagues could be up for debate. This is at least a rough approximation of what it can be like for a league in it's early days.

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It depends how it takes off and how communities rally around it. It's early days and the hype train and excitement of something new hasn't worn off (hopefully it wont).

Regarding attendance for the casual viewer, It doesn't help the camera shots in lots of the stadiums don't show the fullest stands, ie Hamilton, Pacific? Calgary (although that is the stand they should be trying to fill first), Edmonton maybe? Maybe I am way off base with that statement too? I like the smaller stadium plans that have room to expand to meet demand. Its always better to look packed and have a great atmosphere. 

I do realistically think by 2026 there could be 12 teams at least. I'd agree I would be happy with 10 if they are all stable, drawing good crowds and the league quality has been consistent and growing. 

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1 hour ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

No.

I believe thinking is going to evolve quite a bit as relates to Division 2.  There is going to be a national 2nd but I doubt it will be along the traditional promotion/relegation model a lot of people are wishing for.  I suspect the potential for promoting into the CPL will exist but A LOT of things will need to fall in place for that to happen and those conditions may not exist every season. 

Me?  I expect the CPL will plateau at about 12 teams sooner rather than later.  I also expect that there is going to be quite the quality gap between the have and have-nots of the CPL sooner rather than later as well.  Personally don't believe that's a bad thing either.  

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12 hours ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

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16 minutes ago, ted said:

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

We will see 16 clubs in the summer of 2026. The hype for soccer in Canada will only increase as the World Cup approaches. Investors and municipalities will want in on the hype. Visionaries got in the league early and are going through growing pains because they see the end game...2026 is circled in their calendars. 

Investors that are more reactionary will see the growing trend and get interested along the way and want to get in.

*I wouldn't be surprised if CFL Roughriders seeing the success & growing attendance of Hamilton and Winnipeg with Saskatoon being a success, convince them to have a club in Regina in their existing stadium.

As for D2, CPL will want to capitalize on the collective "high" of the World Cup to launch it in Spring 2027. With requirements for investment and infrastructure being lower than for CPL, more investors might be interested in a D2 club due to the lower initial investment and lower risk while having a shot at CPL through promotion.

Launching D2 before 2028-2029 is key to increase the new media deal that CPL will be seeking once it expires with MediaPro in 2029. I think the league will be national.

 

D3 will be like the CHL with a "Memorial Cup"

 

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1 hour ago, ted said:

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

maybe this is one way to do pro-rel once CPL hits 16 teams:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/05/17/leagues-promotion-relegation-solution-needs-unique-australia/

Or you might find this interesting as well:

https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/there-must-be-28-teams-before-a-league-relegation-says-pfa-chief

food for thought.

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7 hours ago, Ansem said:

We will see 16 clubs in the summer of 2026. The hype for soccer in Canada will only increase as the World Cup approaches. Investors and municipalities will want in on the hype. Visionaries got in the league early and are going through growing pains because they see the end game...2026 is circled in their calendars. 

Investors that are more reactionary will see the growing trend and get interested along the way and want to get in.

*I wouldn't be surprised if CFL Roughriders seeing the success & growing attendance of Hamilton and Winnipeg with Saskatoon being a success, convince them to have a club in Regina in their existing stadium.

As for D2, CPL will want to capitalize on the collective "high" of the World Cup to launch it in Spring 2027. With requirements for investment and infrastructure being lower than for CPL, more investors might be interested in a D2 club due to the lower initial investment and lower risk while having a shot at CPL through promotion.

Launching D2 before 2028-2029 is key to increase the new media deal that CPL will be seeking once it expires with MediaPro in 2029. I think the league will be national.

 

D3 will be like the CHL with a "Memorial Cup"

 

so you see 9 new teams in 7 years as well as a whole D2 two years later?

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I think promotion/relegation is a solution to a problem that exists in Europe but not in Canada. And I don't see it ever existing in Canada.

My vision is a National 16 team top division with a 30 match regular season.

Regional D2, probably 4 regions (BC, Prairies, East, Atlantic). 14-16 teams per division. No pro/rel because the D2 teams won't have the resources to compete in D1 (lower attendances and less revenue).

VCup will be single leg matches and everybody plays, but D1 teams get a bye.

The trouble with pro/rel is it could destroy relegated teams as it would be a steep drop.

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2 hours ago, Lofty said:

I think promotion/relegation is a solution to a problem that exists in Europe but not in Canada. And I don't see it ever existing in Canada.

...

The trouble with pro/rel is it could destroy relegated teams as it would be a steep drop.

We don't know how much the various sponsorship deals are worth for CPL, much less what they will be worth if/when it has grown enough to start a D2, but I would guess it would be relatively modest compared to the big leagues in Europe, which should mean a much more gentle drop off, rather than a steep drop off. When an EPL team is relegated, they lose some serious money (yes, they still get parachute payments for a bit). But a league that is more gate driven will lose much less revenue.

I actually think in order to have a 12+ team top division, we kind of need promotion and relegation. We don't have the number of big cities USA has where we can find that many that will always draw a big enough crowd. We need a D2 league to accept teams in their lean years and help them get some buzz back again via promotion. That's the kind of thing that could spice things up for teams that otherwise might sit at or near the bottom of the table for a few years in a row, and lose a lot of ticket sales as a result.

Just my opinion obviously. Makes me wonder what kind of studies/analysis has been done on the effectiveness of pro/rel.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Kent said:

We don't know how much the various sponsorship deals are worth for CPL, much less what they will be worth if/when it has grown enough to start a D2, but I would guess it would be relatively modest compared to the big leagues in Europe, which should mean a much more gentle drop off, rather than a steep drop off. When an EPL team is relegated, they lose some serious money (yes, they still get parachute payments for a bit). But a league that is more gate driven will lose much less revenue.

I actually think in order to have a 12+ team top division, we kind of need promotion and relegation. We don't have the number of big cities USA has where we can find that many that will always draw a big enough crowd. We need a D2 league to accept teams in their lean years and help them get some buzz back again via promotion. That's the kind of thing that could spice things up for teams that otherwise might sit at or near the bottom of the table for a few years in a row, and lose a lot of ticket sales as a result.

Just my opinion obviously. Makes me wonder what kind of studies/analysis has been done on the effectiveness of pro/rel.

All good discussion, we are both just speculating.

Relegated English teams are usually supported by a significant and dedicated fan base that D1 Canadian teams likely won't have (for a while, anyway). And EPL teams use up most of their extra revenue paying inflated player salaries, so that their expenses can be drastically cut when they are relegated, by getting rid of their over paid EPL players. I think that Canada D2 would need to be semi pro. The reason I see a steep drop is because I think the loss of prestige would mean a large drop in attendance -- and thus revenue. Not to mention league sponsorship, which I think will need to be mostly distributed at D1 in order to maintain as high a standard there as possible.

As much as I love the buzz of promotion, I don't see it turning a smaller market 2,500 D2 attendance into a regular 6,000 D1 attendance (or whatever the relative numbers are -- even in England, the average attendance typically drops by over half with each lower tier).

Interesting discussion.

Edited by Lofty

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I'm not trying to sound cynical, I actually do think there can be ways for promotion/relegation to work in Canada if a 2nd Division can achieve a critical mass.  But that's a bit of an ask especially since we're still working on a 1st Division achieving critical mass and with MLS established in our biggest three cities it doesn't help. 

I'm not worried about the CPL in either the short, medium, or long term.  I think they're going to be just fine.  Better than fine.  The smaller markets however, potential 2nd Div markets, you'll have a hard work convincing me they're viable beyond a semi-pro level.  Not with outside support and I don't see that coming anytime soon.    

I think it's more likely CPL will evolve into a league with dominant clubs and minnow clubs just out of practical necessity.  An echo of what we already see in Scotland and Portugal and Holland and any number of other federations where those top flight "minnows" are still too professional for the clubs they would otherwise have to compete with a division down.  That's not to say a 2nd Division Champion, if they meet a certain criteria couldn't challenge for promotion, I'm just suggesting in any given year a 2nd Division Champion may not meet the necessary criteria or even be ambitious enough to seek promotion.  

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