CPL new teams speculation

[CanSuffer]

6 hours ago, lazlo_80 said:

Anyone remember when the teams for this season were announced last year? Just curious where the point is where we shouldn't expect anyone new for 2019

The most important thing is that all the due diligence is done before any announcement. The league has been good at that so far I think.  So, if I was the league and had teams to announce I might hold off until July 1, Canada day, end of Spring Season, or maybe a few days prior. Try to maximize the impact ...

[lazlo_80]

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

[Ansem]

27 minutes ago, CanSuffer said:

The most important thing is that all the due diligence is done before any announcement. The league has been good at that so far I think.  So, if I was the league and had teams to announce I might hold off until July 1, Canada day, end of Spring Season, or maybe a few days prior. Try to maximize the impact ...

That's what the NHL used to do... end of season

Edited June 4, 2019 by Ansem

[Kent]

6 minutes ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

I will be ecstatic if we have a 10 team league in 2026. Some points of comparison.

NHL started (1917) with 4 teams, had 6 in season 7.
MLS started (1996) with 12 teams, had 10 in season 7.
CFL started (1958) with 9 teams, had 9 in season 7 (I didn't realize how stable CFL has been in terms of the teams in the league. It has had the same 9 teams from it's first season in 1958 until now with just a few blips where Ottawa didn't have a team, Montreal didn't have a team, or a handful of American cities had a team.)
MLB started (1901, which I gather is the first season with the American League) with 16 teams, had 16 in season 7.
NFL started (1920) with 14 teams, had 22 in season 7 (back down to 12 teams in season 8 )
NBA started (1946) with 11 teams, had 10 in season 7.

So from the big 4 plus MLS plus CFL which I think we can all agree are the 6 most successful leagues in North American team sports, 2 leagues had fewer teams in season 7 than season 1, 2 leagues were the same size in season 7 as season 1, and 2 leagues were larger in season 7 than season 1. And of course I don't have to remind anyone here that the Canadian Soccer League made it through 6 seasons.

So yeah, if the CPL gets over the hump/7-year itch solidly larger than it is now, that would be fantastic! Bonus points if there are no teams that folded by then because with the exception of the CFL (and maybe MLB, I don't have time to check right now), all the leagues above had teams fold.

Fun fact: The NHL had it's own Clausura/Apertura style in it's first season. 14 game "first half" season and an 8 game "second half" season.

All of this info is from wikipedia, and yes, the "first" season for some of those leagues could be up for debate. This is at least a rough approximation of what it can be like for a league in it's early days.

[toontownman]

It depends how it takes off and how communities rally around it. It's early days and the hype train and excitement of something new hasn't worn off (hopefully it wont).

Regarding attendance for the casual viewer, It doesn't help the camera shots in lots of the stadiums don't show the fullest stands, ie Hamilton, Pacific? Calgary (although that is the stand they should be trying to fill first), Edmonton maybe? Maybe I am way off base with that statement too? I like the smaller stadium plans that have room to expand to meet demand. Its always better to look packed and have a great atmosphere. 

I do realistically think by 2026 there could be 12 teams at least. I'd agree I would be happy with 10 if they are all stable, drawing good crowds and the league quality has been consistent and growing. 

[Cheeta]

1 hour ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

No.

I believe thinking is going to evolve quite a bit as relates to Division 2.  There is going to be a national 2nd but I doubt it will be along the traditional promotion/relegation model a lot of people are wishing for.  I suspect the potential for promoting into the CPL will exist but A LOT of things will need to fall in place for that to happen and those conditions may not exist every season. 

Me?  I expect the CPL will plateau at about 12 teams sooner rather than later.  I also expect that there is going to be quite the quality gap between the have and have-nots of the CPL sooner rather than later as well.  Personally don't believe that's a bad thing either.  

[ted]

12 hours ago, lazlo_80 said:

Just curious, how many teams do people here believe will be in the CPL by the time we host the World Cup?

People aren't expecting full first and second division within 7 years are they?

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

[Ansem]

16 minutes ago, ted said:

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

We will see 16 clubs in the summer of 2026. The hype for soccer in Canada will only increase as the World Cup approaches. Investors and municipalities will want in on the hype. Visionaries got in the league early and are going through growing pains because they see the end game...2026 is circled in their calendars. 

Investors that are more reactionary will see the growing trend and get interested along the way and want to get in.

*I wouldn't be surprised if CFL Roughriders seeing the success & growing attendance of Hamilton and Winnipeg with Saskatoon being a success, convince them to have a club in Regina in their existing stadium.

As for D2, CPL will want to capitalize on the collective "high" of the World Cup to launch it in Spring 2027. With requirements for investment and infrastructure being lower than for CPL, more investors might be interested in a D2 club due to the lower initial investment and lower risk while having a shot at CPL through promotion.

Launching D2 before 2028-2029 is key to increase the new media deal that CPL will be seeking once it expires with MediaPro in 2029. I think the league will be national.

 

D3 will be like the CHL with a "Memorial Cup"

 

[Impactsupporter]

1 hour ago, ted said:

 I will say that in the summer of 2026 we will have 16 teams and be talking seriously about whether the league will choose to split up/down (pro/rel divisions) or East/West (conferences).

Sadly I think the league will choose conferences when that time comes.

maybe this is one way to do pro-rel once CPL hits 16 teams:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/05/17/leagues-promotion-relegation-solution-needs-unique-australia/

Or you might find this interesting as well:

https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/there-must-be-28-teams-before-a-league-relegation-says-pfa-chief

food for thought.

[lazlo_80]

interesting reactions to the question.

For what it's worth, i think 10-12 teams by 2026 would be great.

[lazlo_80]

7 hours ago, Ansem said:

We will see 16 clubs in the summer of 2026. The hype for soccer in Canada will only increase as the World Cup approaches. Investors and municipalities will want in on the hype. Visionaries got in the league early and are going through growing pains because they see the end game...2026 is circled in their calendars. 

Investors that are more reactionary will see the growing trend and get interested along the way and want to get in.

*I wouldn't be surprised if CFL Roughriders seeing the success & growing attendance of Hamilton and Winnipeg with Saskatoon being a success, convince them to have a club in Regina in their existing stadium.

As for D2, CPL will want to capitalize on the collective "high" of the World Cup to launch it in Spring 2027. With requirements for investment and infrastructure being lower than for CPL, more investors might be interested in a D2 club due to the lower initial investment and lower risk while having a shot at CPL through promotion.

Launching D2 before 2028-2029 is key to increase the new media deal that CPL will be seeking once it expires with MediaPro in 2029. I think the league will be national.

 

D3 will be like the CHL with a "Memorial Cup"

 

so you see 9 new teams in 7 years as well as a whole D2 two years later?

[Kent]

2 hours ago, Lofty said:

I think promotion/relegation is a solution to a problem that exists in Europe but not in Canada. And I don't see it ever existing in Canada.

...

The trouble with pro/rel is it could destroy relegated teams as it would be a steep drop.

We don't know how much the various sponsorship deals are worth for CPL, much less what they will be worth if/when it has grown enough to start a D2, but I would guess it would be relatively modest compared to the big leagues in Europe, which should mean a much more gentle drop off, rather than a steep drop off. When an EPL team is relegated, they lose some serious money (yes, they still get parachute payments for a bit). But a league that is more gate driven will lose much less revenue.

I actually think in order to have a 12+ team top division, we kind of need promotion and relegation. We don't have the number of big cities USA has where we can find that many that will always draw a big enough crowd. We need a D2 league to accept teams in their lean years and help them get some buzz back again via promotion. That's the kind of thing that could spice things up for teams that otherwise might sit at or near the bottom of the table for a few years in a row, and lose a lot of ticket sales as a result.

Just my opinion obviously. Makes me wonder what kind of studies/analysis has been done on the effectiveness of pro/rel.

[Cheeta]

I'm not trying to sound cynical, I actually do think there can be ways for promotion/relegation to work in Canada if a 2nd Division can achieve a critical mass.  But that's a bit of an ask especially since we're still working on a 1st Division achieving critical mass and with MLS established in our biggest three cities it doesn't help. 

I'm not worried about the CPL in either the short, medium, or long term.  I think they're going to be just fine.  Better than fine.  The smaller markets however, potential 2nd Div markets, you'll have a hard work convincing me they're viable beyond a semi-pro level.  Not with outside support and I don't see that coming anytime soon.    

I think it's more likely CPL will evolve into a league with dominant clubs and minnow clubs just out of practical necessity.  An echo of what we already see in Scotland and Portugal and Holland and any number of other federations where those top flight "minnows" are still too professional for the clubs they would otherwise have to compete with a division down.  That's not to say a 2nd Division Champion, if they meet a certain criteria couldn't challenge for promotion, I'm just suggesting in any given year a 2nd Division Champion may not meet the necessary criteria or even be ambitious enough to seek promotion.  

[youllneverwalkalone]

You can set standards for promotion beyond the table. I would create minimum stadium standards, minimum season ticket base, and minimum sponsorship revenue. If you have all those things you can get in a promotion playoff. Otherwise, no.

[ktf]

It is an interesting discussion in terms of how many teams will emerge. I do not expect a division 2 before 2026 simply because they will probably want the teams to all be firmly established before that time.

If the CPL is ultimately okay with 6k to 15k stadiums and fanbases being kind of the norm, then I think you want those teams to have a strong season ticket base that will stay in D2. For some teams like Halifax, starved for pro sports and seemingly having amazing sporting culture, they would probably be find beign relegated. Teams like Forge FC, York, PFC, etc, might see attendance cave if enough of a culture is not created before splitting.

As for the amount of teams by 2026, I would be incredibly disappointed with 12 or less. We have 7 teams that can hopefully all make it. There may be minor issues with a few teams so far, primarily stadium location, but I think all the markets have shown potential long term liability. This is not like the Canadian Baseball League, where it was clear after two weeks that half the teams were not sustainable for the year, let alone the future. I can see how, even looking at it pessimistically, there are an easy 5 teams to expect over the next 3-4 years let aone eight. A Saskatchewan team seems imminent, two years max. Regardless of all the confusion going on about it, given the need to have a Quebec team to make this a true Canadian league, there will be at least one team there in two years max. Pick your ideal location, whatever one it is there will be at least two more teams in Ontario in that time whether Ottawa finally joins or expansion. A team in the Lower Mainland or Fraser Valley in BC will also happen at some point over the next 8 years. That would bring the league to 12.

So I actually am hoping for there to be 14 to 16 by that time. 

[toontownman]

It's a good point regarding attendance/culture with pro/relegation. 

Relegation could quickly kill clubs if the culture and support of the sport in each community and the country isnt strong enough. Because the concept will be potentially new to most neutral sports fans it could go one of two ways. Might spark more curiosity and excitement but might also turn them off from supporting depenedingn on when and how its handled. 

Luckily these are problems we dont have to worry about for at least 10 years, Certainly time to really solidify this league in the country.

Again I think you would want a) enough teams to make it work and b) teams financially stable and with a fan base that will stick by and continue to support. Potentially maybe the second division is a development league for new franchises, until enough clubs are stable?

Glad it's not me that has to decide how to do it! Plus I derailed this thread enough. 

[The Real Marc]

 

5 minutes ago, toontownman said:

Relegation could quickly kill clubs if the culture and support of the sport in each community and the country isnt strong enough. Because the concept will be potentially new to most neutral sports fans it could go one of two ways. Might spark more curiosity and excitement but might also turn them off from supporting depenedingn on when and how its handled. 

While I think pro/rel will never happen (and don't necessarily want it, either) - what you've raised is a great question - would relegation doom clubs? Or would people show up regardless? I mean, it's not as if the club is going from the NHL to the AHL.  The CanPL, by it's nature, is more minor league.  If people in Québec City or Regina are willing to watch their team play against Victoria and Hamilton in division 1 they may just be willing to watch them play against London and Moncton in division two. Who knows!

[Initial B]

Someone up thread said that pro-rel works in europe because there was a problem to solve: too many teams. Canada has it's own problem to solve with Pro-Rel: too much space.

 

Personally, I think by 2026 they will have at least 12 teams, possibly as many as 16 teams. At the same time CanPL is growing, they will also be hard at work nurturing regional clubs towards being ready for a jump up to next-tier play. The 2026WC will be used by CanPL and CanSoc to promote national and regional pro soccer to the general public and watch how support rises or falls.

Come 2028, the media deal runs out and everything will be up for renegotiation. Depending on the value of the new media deal and the results from the cultivation of regional lower-tier clubs, that's the point where CanPL will take stock and figure out if Pro-Rel is viable. How they work it out would solve issues with clubs attempting to bridge the gap between National Div 1 and Regional Div 3, giving them a path forward.

[Ansem]

 

[dyslexic nam]

Very cool.

Also, love the announcing of an NDA.  Lol.

[Ansem]

 

[An Observer]

3 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Very cool.

Also, love the announcing of an NDA.  Lol.

Yeah. Usually the NDA requires you not to disclose there is an NDA

[Gopherbashi]

3 hours ago, Ansem said:

 

Beirne and Clanachan telling him to put a lid on it haha

[Ansem]

20 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

Beirne and Clanachan telling him to put a lid on it haha

I'm surprised it took them that long to get him in line. Bettman doesn't tolerate stuff like that hahaha...

But yeah, I'm sure the process is very professional and by the book but his use of social media wasn't and must have forced the league to intervene...started to look amateurish 

[Kent]

To expand on my point a bit about the lack of a gulf between the CPL and the hypothetical Canadian Deuxieme League, as someone pointed out, it's not dropping from NHL to AHL. It's more like dropping from USL to USL-Championship or whatever the new lower level USL league is called. The way things currently stand at least there is close to 0 national coverage of the league. Now that may change by the time the CPL grows enough to consider a 2nd division, but right now at least it would be a difference between a league that only gets local coverage, and a different league that also only gets local coverage. When you get relegated, it's not like all of a sudden you are no longer on Sportscentre, because you weren't there in the first place.

Also, anecdotally, I was a season ticket holder for TFC in 2011, 2012, and 2014. Part way through the 2012 season while sitting through another hopeless loss (2011 and 2012 were their two worst seasons ever I think) I found myself wishing they could have been relegated after their 2011 season so that they would have a chance of being competitive in a lower level league the following season. Going through back to back horrible seasons seems worse to me than going through a horrible season, being relegated and then having a middle of the table type of season. At least you get to see a few wins in person as a season ticket holder in the second season.

One more point. Someone alluded to the idea that to have pro/rel you have to have more than the number of D1 teams being D1 capable. So, let's say it's a 16 team D1, the idea being that not only do those 16 teams have to have D1 level of support, but also the top few D2 teams as well. My thinking is that with pro/rel you can have 16 D1 teams by committee. If there are 5 or whatever solid, ever-D1 teams in big markets, then you can have 15 or 20 or whatever teams that together try to make up the other 11 teams, at any given time. In some lean years of support and/or results (see previous paragraph), a team can drop down and be replaced by a similarly small market team that is coming off of a buzz-worthy D2 championship season.

We'll see what happens if/when we get there. I would love to be proven right, and probably even love to be proven wrong, because that will have meant that we actually have a solid CPL and tried a 2nd div league. Let's hope we get there some day.