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CPL new teams speculation

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Posted (edited)

I've been doing some thinking about how to implement a regional 2nd division in CPL and the problem I come across is that I don't think there are enough teams out west to do it. They can't even get a regional 3 division off the ground in BC or Alberta, they have to join USL2. Ontario and Quebec seem to have the majority of the I'm wondering if the plan is to build the footprint of soccer clubs out west (say 7 teams) in a 16-club CPL. The remaining teams will be in Ontario and parts east. I could see a second division solely comprised of eastern teams. If they institute pro-rel, only the eastern teams would be considered for relegation because if a western team was relegated, that would be a death sentence due to the loss of media revenue and ballooning travel costs. This asymmetrical format would have to continue until they get enough western teams to make it's own regional Div2, which might take 2 decades.

Edited by Initial B

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40 minutes ago, Initial B said:

I've been doing some thinking about how to implement a regional 2nd division in CPL and the problem I come across is that I don't think there are enough teams out west to do it. They can't even get a regional 3 division off the ground in BC or Alberta, they have to join USL2. Ontario and Quebec seem to have the majority of the I'm wondering if the plan is to build the footprint of soccer clubs out west (say 7 teams) in a 16-club CPL. The remaining teams will be in Ontario and parts east. I could see a second division solely comprised of eastern teams. If they institute pro-rel, only the eastern teams would be considered for relegation because if a western team was relegated, that would be a death sentence due to the loss of media revenue and ballooning travel costs. This asymmetrical format would have to continue until they get enough western teams to make it's own regional Div2, which might take 2 decades.

Pretty sure D2 is expected to be national

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19 hours ago, Initial B said:

I've been doing some thinking about how to implement a regional 2nd division in CPL and the problem I come across is that I don't think there are enough teams out west to do it. They can't even get a regional 3 division off the ground in BC or Alberta, they have to join USL2. Ontario and Quebec seem to have the majority of the I'm wondering if the plan is to build the footprint of soccer clubs out west (say 7 teams) in a 16-club CPL. The remaining teams will be in Ontario and parts east. I could see a second division solely comprised of eastern teams. If they institute pro-rel, only the eastern teams would be considered for relegation because if a western team was relegated, that would be a death sentence due to the loss of media revenue and ballooning travel costs. This asymmetrical format would have to continue until they get enough western teams to make it's own regional Div2, which might take 2 decades.

I understand all the concerns you raised, but you can't have pro/rel where some teams are immune to relegation because of geography. That wouldn't work. Although I am half expecting for Forge, Valour, and FC Edmonton to be immune from relegation if pro/rel ever does become a reality.

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I haven’t been following too closely, but I’m curious where things stand on new clubs? Which three-ish markets are front runners for the near-term, say 2020-2021? I’ve heard Laval, SK, and QC. What about in the mid-term, say 2021-2023? I’ve heard Moncton, Ottawa, GTA, and GVA. Is that about right?

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1 hour ago, IAmPappy said:

I haven’t been following too closely, but I’m curious where things stand on new clubs? Which three-ish markets are front runners for the near-term, say 2020-2021? I’ve heard Laval, SK, and QC. What about in the mid-term, say 2021-2023? I’ve heard Moncton, Ottawa, GTA, and GVA. Is that about right?

For 2020 I'd lean towards Laval and Greater Vancouver expansion clubs joining bringing the league to 9 teams.

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1 hour ago, CDNFootballer said:

For 2020 I'd lean towards Laval and Greater Vancouver expansion clubs joining bringing the league to 9 teams.

Thanks. So, this seems like a no brainer to me: The Roughriders could easily replica the Winnipeg and Hamilton models and put a team in Regina. What am I missing?

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Posted (edited)

Ottawa , Quebec City , Moncton and  Regina all have Stadiums ready to go. Those cities should be the focus ! 

C4CC885A-7575-46B6-8D50-B691D2EF058B.jpeg

B2D4B480-03BB-4D1F-86D2-34E4B2E0C24B.jpeg

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Edited by SpecialK

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Those are only ready to go, if the owners are willing to rent at a reasonable price and either install unmarked fielturf or natural grass as is the case in Ottawa and Moncton.

It's not acceptable to have permanent CFL markings visible during a CanPL game, so Regina and Quebec City are problematic as things stand right now. There are solutions like paint and tiles but that might not be so easy to do when the season overlaps with the CFL and U-sports.

Halifax have shown that popups can be successfully installed and used for pro soccer so the lack of a suitable existing stadium isn't necessarily a problem if a municipality is willing to provide suitable land.

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In addition to stadiums potential markets also have to have well vetted ownership groups with sound business plans for their clubs, etc.

Stadium alone is not enough, a sound group that checks all the boxes re vetting but plans a 6K popup may end up the better expansion candidate in the end.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, IAmPappy said:

I haven’t been following too closely, but I’m curious where things stand on new clubs? Which three-ish markets are front runners for the near-term, say 2020-2021? I’ve heard Laval, SK, and QC. What about in the mid-term, say 2021-2023? I’ve heard Moncton, Ottawa, GTA, and GVA. Is that about right?

Durham Region has been floated as a possibility in blogs and podcasts complete with a named lead investor and preferred stadium location, which adds credibility.

Suspect the experience with York 9 might cool things a bit on large metro suburban markets such as Durham, Laval and Fraser valley unless more fans start showing up in terms of actual as opposed to announced attendance and Quebec City might become the top expansion target in Quebec for that reason. It's now getting equal billing with Laval from Alex Bunbury.

There are groups known to have been potentially interested in St John's and Kitchener/Waterloo, and Saint John also got mentioned on blogs and podcasts after Moosehead became a league sponsor.

In total the league has claimed to be in contact with 22 groups and 18 markets, but some of those were probably highly preliminary. Kelowna, Windsor, London, Niagara, Mississauga and Barrie were also mentioned by Paul Beirne in a podcast earlier this year along with the possibility of regional intensification on franchise numbers to boost local rivalries in southern Ontario and Lower Mainland BC. Sherbrooke gets mentioned sometimes as the third possible Quebec market.

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Durham Region has been floated as a possibility in blogs and podcasts complete with a named lead investor and preferred stadium location, which adds credibility.

Suspect the experience with York 9 might cool things a bit on large metro suburban markets such as Durham, Laval and Fraser valley unless more fans start showing up in terms of actual as opposed to announced attendance and Quebec City might become the top expansion target in Quebec for that reason. It's now getting equal billing with Laval from Alex Bunbury.

There are groups known to have been potentially interested in St John's and Kitchener/Waterloo, and Saint John also got mentioned on blogs and podcasts after Moosehead became a league sponsor.

In total the league has claimed to be in contact with 22 groups and 18 markets, but some of those were probably highly preliminary. Kelowna, Windsor, London, Niagara, Mississauga and Barrie were also mentioned by Paul Beirne in a podcast earlier this year along with the possibility of regional intensification on franchise numbers to boost local rivalries in southern Ontario and Lower Mainland BC. Sherbrooke gets mentioned sometimes as the third possible Quebec market.

With all that in mind, I decided to show the various markets and groups the CPL has been in contact with broken up into various "regions"

Eastern Canada

St-John's, NFLD

HFX Wanderers

New Brunswick (St-John or Moncton)

Quebec City

Sherbrooke

Montreal/Laval

Gatineau

Ottawa

Eastern Ontario

Durham Region (Ajax, Oshawa, Pickering)

York 9

Mississauga

Brampton

Oakville

Toronto (Varsity or Lamport Stadium)

Barrie

Western Ontario

Forge FC(Hamilton)

Grand River(Kitchener-Waterloo)

London

Windsor

Niagara

Sudbury

Western Canada

Valour FC(Winnipeg)

Regina

Saskatoon

Cavalry FC(Calgary)

FC Edmonton

Kelowna

Lower Mainland BC(Surrey or Langley)

Vancouver (Richmond, Flight FC)

Pacific FC(Victoria)

 

Let me know if I have missed any places.

Edited by Impactsupporter
was not finished hit button too soon

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13 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Looks good. Think Gatineau and Sudbury are more online speculation than anything that has come from CanPL execs or any credible local source.

https://sudburycpl.wordpress.com/

 

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13 hours ago, Impactsupporter said:

With all that in mind, I decided to show the various markets and groups the CPL has been in contact with broken up into various "regions"

Eastern Canada

St-John's, NFLD

HFX Wanderers

New Brunswick (St-John or Moncton)

Quebec City

Sherbrooke

Montreal/Laval

Gatineau

Ottawa

Eastern Ontario

Durham Region (Ajax, Oshawa, Pickering)

York 9

Mississauga

Brampton

Oakville

Toronto (Varsity or Lamport Stadium)

Barrie

Western Ontario

Forge FC(Hamilton)

Grand River(Kitchener-Waterloo)

London

Windsor

Niagara

Sudbury

Western Canada

Valour FC(Winnipeg)

Regina

Saskatoon

Cavalry FC(Calgary)

FC Edmonton

Kelowna

Lower Mainland BC(Surrey or Langley)

Vancouver (Richmond, Flight FC)

Pacific FC(Victoria)

 

Let me know if I have missed any places.

I can't think of any you've left out, but what is Flight FC in Vancouver?  I haven't seen that mentioned before.

NB:  St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador.  Saint John, New Brunswick

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https://www.ffa.com.au/sites/ffa/files/2019-05/Whole_of_Football_Plan.pdf

goto page 84 and the composition of the A-League.   One interesting area: Every major Australian center with a population over 500 000 has the  market size to host and A-League club  and no pro-rel between A-League and National Premier Leagues  (Yet Paul Beirne wanted Canadian centers with populations of 200 000 to host CPL a club.

 

Just a thought.

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Posted (edited)

The A League spends significantly more on players than CanPL does and would not be comfortable using 6,000 seat popups, so the smaller scale of operations means that we can more easily aspire to having a Morwell Falcons on board some day:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gippsland_Falcons_SC

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/when-the-falcons-took-flight-a-region-soared-with-them--but-crash-was-coming-20111201-1o9a0.html

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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22 minutes ago, Impactsupporter said:

https://www.ffa.com.au/sites/ffa/files/2019-05/Whole_of_Football_Plan.pdf

goto page 84 and the composition of the A-League.   One interesting area: Every major Australian center with a population over 500 000 has the  market size to host and A-League club  and no pro-rel between A-League and National Premier Leagues  (Yet Paul Beirne wanted Canadian centers with populations of 200 000 to host CPL a club.

 

Just a thought.

Perhaps the thinking is that a Canadian league may have more sponsorship money potential than an Australian league. While most people think of Australia as having a similar population to Canada, Canada's is actually about 50% higher than Australia (25 million to 37 million). Of course for that to pan out the CPL would need viewership of the league to go up in areas that don't have teams.

I can't draw any conclusions from this next data point, but I was curious how many more markets it would open up if Australia used the 200k benchmark instead of 500k.

Cities with more than 500k population: Australia - 6, Canada - 10
Cities with between 200k and 500k: Australia - 6, Canada - 10

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23 hours ago, Impactsupporter said:

Eastern Ontario

Durham Region (Ajax, Oshawa, Pickering)

York 9

Mississauga

Brampton

Oakville

Toronto (Varsity or Lamport Stadium)

Barrie

Western Ontario

Forge FC(Hamilton)

Grand River(Kitchener-Waterloo)

London

Windsor

Niagara

Sudbury

Placing Sudbury in Western Ontario is hilarious. Also I don't think its happening.

21 hours ago, Impactsupporter said:

I admit, I forgot about this site. I guess I should either update it or shut it down, eh?

There aren't very many who have stepped forward to be involved with this "group" (like 3, including myself and a guy in North Bay). There are zero credible rumours concerning a team in Northern Ontario.

The most likely owner, Dario Zulich, is currently tied up fighting to get his Kingsway Entertainment District through the LPAT system. Until that's resolved, he's unlikely to explore the idea of expanding his sports holdings beyond the Sudbury Wolves (hockey), Sudbury Five (pro basketball), and Sudbury Spartans (football). In some of the early proposals, there was talk of an outdoor stadium "potentially" being added to the KED, but it hasn't been brought up since the very early stages.

Additionally, although both indoor soccer domes are moving forward, the "public" one has downsized as a result of Ford's cutting their announced funding. Both are still slated to open sometime in "Fall 2019," but there's no word on any connections between the two facilities and pro or semi-pro ambitions.

Furthermore, the changed requirements in L1O, which will require an L1O Reserve squad to launch simultaneously, eliminates Sudbury (and all of Northern Ontario) from obtaining any presence in that league. The availability (or lack thereof) of the coach & referee training in the North has resulted in no club or group coming even close to the standards needed to launch an OPDL team in Sudbury, let alone L1O & L1O reserves.

Short of me personally winning the big prizes on both Lotto 649 and Lotto Max, I think we can count Sudbury out of the running for the near-to-medium-term. 

I'm still dreaming it could happen, but as for Pro or Semi-Pro Soccer in Sudbury, there's nothing but crickets and craters.

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