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CPL new teams speculation

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I don't get the obsession with getting the MLS teams into CPL. 

As I see it, a league with 10 or 12 or even 14 teams with an average attendance at around 6 or 7 thousand remains compatible with the MLS teams averaging just over 20 thousand. It also enables an ownership group to seek a club in the catchment area of an MLS side without that being seen as direct competition.

That is better than wiping out the fan base and the scale of MLS in Canada, as I see it. Better to have both, apart from the fact that it is a way to hedge our bets, to not put all the eggs in one basket. 

I personally don't think this league will actually get to 14 teams, or to anything close to a national D2. Nor do I think we'll ever see promotion and relegation, though if they were smart they could use results to rank for the Voyageurs Cup, just to add an incentive for late season play. My ambitions are modest, but hey, a stable 12-team league plus 3 MLS teams, not bad.

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

What I am saying is that first, you'd have to have internal pressure in Concacaf. From powerful clubs and from associations/federations, pushing the regional federation to act. If they could make a strong argument for it, they'd have FIFA's backing. 

There is no evidence that would happen. What clubs right now could make an argument they are being discriminated by the 3 MLS teams in Canada? What national federation?

Reapplying for sanctioning triggers the federation to review the application. Up until CPL, it was virtually automatic but as the Fury learned, CONCACAF will seriously study applications to play in another Association league

3 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

In fact, having a WC shared by three federations goes in the opposite direction of what is being argued: how can you argue for a tendency towards national exclusivity when for the first time ever, FIFA has broken the pattern of one-federation exclusivity for WC hosting?

Sharing a WC, which was done in Asia before and national leagues are different matters. The whole point of "Champions Leagues" is having the champions/best teams of different countries facing off. Confederations are highly protective of that model as it's a main source of revenue for them. 

The fact that there's no "Super League" in any Confederations is proof of that. 

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2 hours ago, Ams1984 said:

When do you see this happening? I’m not sure how long is left in the present waiver... but when it expires (especially if it expires soon) I wonder if Concacaf might not just decide to extend it one final time to give the CPL more time to get its level up and to also simultaneously give the big 3 notice. 

I'm thinking post 2026 World Cup. Miki Turner said that he was told by people "in the know" how long was the waiver. Someone said "40 years" to which he answered "much shorter".

TFC has 13 years in the league while I believe Montreal and Vancouver are 8-9 years in. Even if we went with half of the 40 years, that brings TFC to 2027, that's why I always say "post 2026".

TFC will have to demonstrate how they fall under the exception. The clause that was used in their case was not having a top tier domestic league. They won't be able to argue that anymore.

What could happen is CONCACAF renewing their sanction but refusing the long term waiver, meaning that just like the Fury, CONCACAF would reevaluate the situation on a yearly basis. 

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1 hour ago, Blackdude said:

Ansem lives in their own world and hopes that it will happen one day. I don't think one can expect that to happen, but I'm pretty sure that option 1 is a possibility. We're talking about clubs that have been in MLS for 9+ years. It's not clear what long-standing means, but it could be argued that 9+ years in a 25 year old league is long-standing. So, sure it could be debated, but I doubt that they would do the same as long as MLS is that much better than CPL..

That will be interesting to see if that argument holds or not.

Fyi, I was told that lived in my own world when I said 

-There would be pro/rel when the CPL was style a project...I was right

-That CONCACAF would end Fury's sanctioning... I was right

I'm not always wrong you know. There's no fantasy in what I'm talking about

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23 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I don't get the obsession with getting the MLS teams into CPL

No obsession here. I'm very patient and I think everyone is waiting for the waiver to expire to see what happens.

Miki Turner even said how a denial of sanctioning would play out and that was ahead of the Fury exist...which was 100% the same as for the Fury... (sell franchise and restart) or (Relocation)

This is a post 2026 scenario. Like it or not, that waiver will expire

23 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

As I see it, a league with 10 or 12 or even 14 teams with an average attendance at around 6 or 7 thousand remains compatible with the MLS teams. It also enables an ownership group to seek a club in the catchment area of an MLS side without that being seen as direct competition.

That is better than wiping out the fan base and the scale of MLS in Canada, as I see it. Better to have both, apart from the fact that it is a way to hedge our bets, to not put all the eggs in one basket. 

I personally don't think this league will actually get to 14 teams, or to anything close to a national D2. Nor do I think we'll ever see promotion and relegation, though if they were smart they could use results to rank for the Voyageurs Cup, just to add an incentive for late season play.

We'll have to wait and see. If they are able to stay in MLS for a longer period of time or forever than that will be FIFA'S decision and we'll all have to live with that. 

Such scenario would definately see CPL pull the trigger and enter the cities in my opinion.

They could 

A) 1 CPL club per cities

B)fractionig the cities by allowing multiple clubs (instead of a Toronto CPL --> Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, MTL West Island, Downtown Montreal etc...) smaller scope but clubs that could promote to Premier League eventually 

Edited by Ansem

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21 minutes ago, Ansem said:

I'm thinking post 2026 World Cup. Miki Turner said that he was told by people "in the know" how long was the waiver. Someone said "40 years" to which he answered "much shorter".

TFC has 13 years in the league while I believe Montreal and Vancouver are 8-9 years in. Even if we went with half of the 40 years, that brings TFC to 2027, that's why I always say "post 2026".

TFC will have to demonstrate how they fall under the exception. The clause that was used in their case was not having a top tier domestic league. They won't be able to argue that anymore.

What could happen is CONCACAF renewing their sanction but refusing the long term waiver, meaning that just like the Fury, CONCACAF would reevaluate the situation on a yearly basis. 

I’d actually really like to see this happen, but only so long as it didn’t jeopardize the continued existence of those three clubs. 

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54 minutes ago, Ams1984 said:

I’d actually really like to see this happen, but only so long as it didn’t jeopardize the continued existence of those three clubs. 

The problem is that it's highly unlikely that they would be allow to retain their IP unless they have it as an out clause.

They'd lose their name and brand normally but the ownership could quickly relaunch under a new brand and name. It's pretty much the same employees and infrastructure at the end of the day.

Take TFC who paid $10M to buy into MLS. They are now worth $245M as of today. By 2030 they could be worth 30 times that...so they'd be fine.

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2 minutes ago, Ansem said:

The problem is that it's highly unlikely that they would be allow to retain their IP unless they have it as an out clause.

They'd lose their name and brand normally but the ownership could quickly relaunch under a new brand and name. It's pretty much the same employees and infrastructure at the end of the day.

Take TFC who paid $10M to buy into MLS. They are now worth $245M as of today. By 2030 they could be worth 30 times that...so they'd be fine.

I’ve seen some crazy things posted here but what ...? A team in a league losing money is going to be worth over 7 billion in 10 years?  😂😂

 

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6 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

I’ve seen some crazy things posted here but what ...? A team in a league losing money is going to be worth over 7 billion in 10 years?  😂😂

 

30 times their initial investment...I'm not that bad in math 😂

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19 minutes ago, Ansem said:

The problem is that it's highly unlikely that they would be allow to retain their IP unless they have it as an out clause.

They'd lose their name and brand normally but the ownership could quickly relaunch under a new brand and name. It's pretty much the same employees and infrastructure at the end of the day.

Take TFC who paid $10M to buy into MLS. They are now worth $245M as of today. By 2030 they could be worth 30 times that...so they'd be fine.

Well, if it ever does happen, let’s hope that they can work out a deal with MLS to keep their IP... 

The Whitecaps and MTL existed as brands before they entered MLS. I wonder if that’d have any bearing. 

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7 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I cannot envision any scenario where a similar argument as seen now in UEFA, of breaking rules of fair play, could be applied in Concacaf. In fact, having a WC shared by three federations goes in the opposite direction of what is being argued: how can you argue for a tendency towards national exclusivity when for the first time ever, FIFA has broken the pattern of one-federation exclusivity for WC hosting?

7 hours ago, Ansem said:

Once the waiver is up our 3 clubs will have to demonstrate how they meet the exceptions.

it's actually CONCACAF ruling that's setting the precedent here with how they treated the Fury when they stated that they don't recognize exceptional clause on the Fury which they didn't appeal to CAS. That precedent strengthens CONCACAF & FIFA.

Will CONCACAF enforce Article 73? I believe they will. They aren't simply going to extend the waiver, clubs MUST apply for sanction and has to be signed on by FIFA. 

Will the 3 clubs appeal it? Maybe.

Will CAS side with them? Unlikely if FIFA choose to interpret their rule to ensure that cross-border leagues are kept strictly to exceptional circumstances which is in their interest.

But the analysis of the ruling that I posted earlier on states that FIFA is free to interpret their own rules however they like and CAS is unlikely to do it for them hence Silva losing.

Silva interpreted the rule and FIFA opted to articulate their own interpretation which isn't just about FIFA. I remember this coming up on the Balsillie v. NHL where the judge stated the same. 

It comes down to what FIFA wants. Did they want to force Australia and MLS in pro/rel? No, most likely more trouble than it's worth with negligeable ramifications to the rest of their structure.

If FIFA choose to ensure that cross-border leagues doesn't happen, then they'll argue about their own interpretation of their own rule and they'll win. Is it in their interest to enforce the rule? I believe it is. What's preventing Super Leagues so far is mainly Article 73, applying it consistently makes sense

Just want to point out that WC 2002 was held in both South Korea and Japan, so there's previous precedent. The CAS ruling against Silva vs MLS regarding Pro-Rel stated that MLS is a closed league of clubs that paid for the privilege to join and FIFA did not appeal is another precedent. The recognition that the US and Australia are special cases is yet another. Law is built on previous precedents and I don't think FIFA is going to take on a case that will drain organization funds if it doesn't think it can win. They would probably argue that money spent on litigation would be better spent on helping poorer countries developing the beautiful game (or lining their own pockets). Heck, they might even consider forcing a move of the Canadian MLS clubs to be detrimental to the development of soccer in this country and fight against it.

Ansem, I understand your desire to have the MLS clubs join CanPL as a means of ensuring the new league's sustainability and your desire to not appear inferior to the two big CONCACAF Leagues. But I feel that the desire of MLSE is not to be confined to a smaller stage and they have the pockets to make it unpalatable for FIFA to go after them. CanPL is meant to develop Canadian talent, MLS wants to become a top 5 world league and appears to be offloading it's development of players (even those through it's academies) to USL (except for the really cheap owners). Cascadia clashes have over 40 years of history. You really think Whitecaps (or their supporters) want to give that up? TFC-Impact clashes are one of the most intense rivalries in the MLS Eastern Conference and I don't think MLS (and especially TSN) wants to lose that.

If FIFA invokes Article 73 expect a long, drawn out legal process where the only winners will be the lawyers.

Edited by Initial B

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Regarding FIFA and precedents, FIFA is based in Switzerland where they have civil law not common law. Our (Canadian ex-Quebec) understanding of legal matters may not hold for Swiss law. Please note, I have taken one course in business law so, to say the least, am no legal expert.

 

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Unfortunately I think the only way the 3 Cdn MLS teams leave MLS is if MLS kicks them out. But Saputo already left one league and helped create another league before, so who the f*&% knows what could happen

.

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1 hour ago, MtlMario said:

Unfortunately I think the only way the 3 Cdn MLS teams leave MLS is if MLS kicks them out. But Saputo already left one league and helped create another league before, so who the f*&% knows what could happen

The most reasonable scenario for the Canadian MLS clubs being pushed out of that league would come from potential franchise holders in the US. If major ownership groups with legit proposals were to come along and be told they could not have a franchise as none were available, they could propose, using FIFA regulations even and with US Soccer support, that certain franchises should be put up for sale.

American leagues with Canadian teams have, in the past, found it easy to pick on Canadian clubs, thinking of Expos (which still irks me terribly), and Grizzlies. It is also true this happens internally in the US, I know the situation in Seattle and the efforts to get an NBA team back in the city are considerable, usually involving picking on certain existing franchises (the Kings for example).

Faced with major buyout proposals, that could happen. But it would mean the end of those MLS teams, it is erroneous to think they'd transfer over into CPL. We would not get Whitecaps or Impact in CPL, a void would open up and a new ownership group would have to walk in. Those owners would have no obligation to use the windfall to bankroll a strong CPL club. Not even a scenario where one owner might make the move, as seen with Hunt in Ottawa, would be ensured.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Initial B said:

Ansem, I understand your desire to have the MLS clubs join CanPL as a means of ensuring the new league's sustainability and your desire to not appear inferior to the two big CONCACAF Leagues.

That almost sounded condescending.

You're misunderstanding me. I just want CPL to be able to reach it's full potential. It's really not about the 3 MLS teams joining CPL, it's more so about being "normal" like the overwhelming majority of the leagues out there and not be in a cross-border situation 

I've said it before, if Canadians we're domestic in MLS or Americans counted as foreigners on Canadian clubs, I honestly wouldn't care as much about those 3 staying in MLS but that's not the case is it.

It be nice for Canadian dollars be reinvested in a Canadian league who wants to grow the talent and the league here. That unfair roster rule is my biggest problem

13 hours ago, Initial B said:

But I feel that the desire of MLSE is not to be confined to a smaller stage and they have the pockets to make it unpalatable for FIFA to go after them

FIFA can make Brazil suspend it's own laws but they'd somehow be petrified of MLSE...Sure 😊

13 hours ago, Initial B said:

MLS wants to become a top 5 world league and appears to be offloading it's development of players (even those through it's academies) to USL (except for the really cheap owners).

A)They will NEVER be a top 5 world league

B)MLS should really embrace being a seller/developmental league as well which they aren't. So sure you can be blinded by the salaries and names they attract but that's not really helping Americans who have seen their minutes dropped sharply.

The snubbing of MLS by Europe is really about them claiming/trying to be a world top league by throwing cash around and doing it wrong. They see it and roll their eyes.

Big deal that TFC spends $20M on salaries, there's no way in hell the DPs see that kind of money in Europe. They might spend $20M but the team ain't playing like it. The league has to overpay for talent... really not that hard to understand... 

13 hours ago, Initial B said:

Cascadia clashes have over 40 years of history. You really think Whitecaps (or their supporters) want to give that up? TFC-Impact clashes are one of the most intense rivalries in the MLS Eastern Conference and I don't think MLS (and especially TSN) wants to lose that.

I'm more concerned about the good of Canadian soccer as a whole than the financial health of 3 billionaire ownership and their fans. What about the rest of the country being sick and tired of missing world cups?

I embraced MLS just as hard as anyone else. I used to watch EVERY games with Canadians clubs was a hardcore fan of MTL. But over the years, I just got tired of missing World Cup after World Cup, not even able to reach the HEX and youth teams underperforming. 

MLS was supposed to fix that but looking at the roster rules and guys like Laryea not starting regularly because Team America prefers to play more Yanks than Canadians even during the freaking Canadian Championship...I mean really? Look at ZBG being benched in MTL, Fraser not playing enough minutes, even Cornelius minutes were not where it should have been until injuries 

Nah man, you got me all wrong. I dont care about CPL being below Liga MX, and MLS. I would fully embrace CPL being a top 5 and be like Ligue 1 France which is a top 5 Euro league and it's strongest clubs can compete in CL but with a strong emphasis/track record at developing French players.

Ligue 1 might not be the strongest league but France have strong & DEEP team. For me it's really about that.

MLS is what it is, a show, entertainment and they do a great job but trying to be like the other big 4 leagues is a mistake and like you said they leave the developmental burden to USL???

morgan freeman good luck GIF

Edited by Ansem

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13 hours ago, Initial B said:

. Cascadia clashes have over 40 years of history. You really think Whitecaps (or their supporters) want to give that up?

As someone who attended those clashes 40 years ago and donated to the Cascadia Cup, I think that the Cascadia clashes have lost their shine over the years.

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6 minutes ago, Ansem said:

That almost sounded condescending.

You're misunderstanding me. I just want CPL to be able to reach it's full potential. It's really not about the 3 MLS teams joining CPL, it's more so about being "normal" like the overwhelming majority of the leagues out there and not be in a cross-border situation 

I've said it before, if Canadians we're domestic in MLS or Americans counted as foreigners on Canadian clubs, I honestly wouldn't care as much about those 3 staying in MLS but that's not the case.

Sure 😊

A)They will NEVER be a top 5 world league

B)MLS should really embrace being a seller/developmental league as well which they aren't. So sure you can be blinded by the salaries and names they attract but that's not really helping Americans who have seen their minutes dropped sharply.

I don't think we should envy their model one bit

I'm more concerned about the good of Canadian soccer as a whole than the financial health of 3 billionaire ownership and their fans.

I embraced MLS just as hard as anyone else. I used to watch EVERY games with Canadians clubs was a hardcore fan of MTL. But over the years, I just got tired of missing World Cup after World Cup, not even able to reach the HEX and youth teams underperforming. 

MLS was supposed to fix that but looking at the roster rules and guys like Laryea not starting regularly because Team America prefers to play more Yanks than Canadians even during the freaking Canadian Championship...I mean really? Look at ZBG being benched in MTL, Fraser not playing enough minutes, even Cornelius minutes were not where it should have been until injuries 

Nah man, you got me all wrong. I dont care about CPL being below Liga MX, and MLS. I would fully embrace CPL being a top 5 and be like Ligue 1 France which is a top 5 Euro league and it's strongest clubs can compete in CL but with a strong emphasis/track record at developing French players.

Ligue 1 might not be the strongest league but France have strong & DEEP team. For me it's really about that.

MLS is what it is, a show, entertainment and they do a great job but trying to be like the other big 4 leagues is a mistake and like you said they leave the developmental burden to USL???

morgan freeman good luck GIF

TFC actually is just as Canadian as American, 10 Canadians and 10 Americans are currently among the 28 on the first team. The other 8 are international and two that count as domestics including one who is a Canadian resident. Richie was a revelation for the Reds last year with a breakout season after not getting much of an opportunity in Orlando. Liam has a great chance to show his stuff with Michael Bradley's injury. They also have on of the more exciting young Canadians in Jayden Nelson on the roster too. Maybe the one concession out of all this will be Americans no longer being counted as domestic players for the Canadian teams. The development of the CPL will go along way in making a rule change a lot more viable than it was when TFC joined MLS in 2007. TFC has a history of homegrown players toiling on the training ground for a year or two, only to be released and see out their playing days in the CSL, never to get another pro shot. That is the difference between then an now. 

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7 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Faced with major buyout proposals, that could happen. But it would mean the end of those MLS teams, it is erroneous to think they'd transfer over into CPL. We would not get Whitecaps or Impact in CPL, a void would open up and a new ownership group would have to walk in. Those owners would have no obligation to use the windfall to bankroll a strong CPL club. Not even a scenario where one owner might make the move, as seen with Hunt in Ottawa, would be ensured.

Never said they'd transfer in CPL, that can't happen. If they are denied a US sanction one day they a choice

A) keep the franchises and relocate 

B)Sell and relaunch in CPL

C)Sell and get out of football - the void you're talking about...would lead to other investors partnering to launch their own teams in those cities.

It really isn't about the 3 teams, it's more so about CONCACAF potentially not wanting cross-border leagues where there's no need for it.

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6 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Never said they'd transfer in CPL, that can't happen. If they are denied a US sanction one day they a choice

A) keep the franchises and relocate 

B)Sell and relaunch in CPL

C)Sell and get out of football - the void you're talking about...would lead to other investors partnering to launch their own teams in those cities.

It really isn't about the 3 teams, it's more so about CONCACAF potentially not wanting cross-border leagues where there's no need for it.

I am not really arguing, but was looking a few days ago at the all Caribbean league that lasted 3 years in the mid 90s. It would actually make sense, providing a higher level competition for the top clubs. Except for having national federations rather reticent to give up their powers. I would say that the way the new Concacaf club competitions are working in the Caribbean only partially compensate this.

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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3 minutes ago, Cblake said:

TFC actually is just as Canadian as American, 10 Canadians and 10 Americans are currently among the 28 on the first team. The other 8 are international and two that count as domestics including one who is a Canadian resident. Richie was a revelation for the Reds last year with a breakout season after not getting much of an opportunity in Orlando. Liam has a great chance to show his stuff with Michael Bradley's injury. They also have on of the more exciting young Canadians in Jayden Nelson on the roster too.

Not good enough if they aren't playing more. They are being wasted if they aren't playing more. No wonder we lack depth on the National team, like Floro and Zambrano said, the problem isn't talent, it's the lack of minutes at club level.

If I'm talking lack of minutes for talented Canadian kids on Canadians clubs, there's a problem here. I care more about a stronger, deeper and consistent national team than the entertainment of MLS fans.

TFC can be on  winning streak, so what??? We're on path to miss the HEX again, and potentially another world cup. 

3 minutes ago, Cblake said:

Maybe the one concession out of all this will be Americans no longer being counted as domestic players for the Canadian teams.

They'll never agree to it.

8 minutes ago, Cblake said:

The development of the CPL will go along way in making a rule change a lot more viable than it was when TFC joined MLS in 2007. TFC has a history of homegrown players toiling on the training ground for a year or two, only to be released and see out their playing days in the CSL, never to get another pro shot. That is the difference between then an now. 

How sure are you that the 3 teams are interested in a change of rule? By having BOTH Canadians and Americans as domestics, they get their cake and eat it to at the expense of young Canadians who could use the playing time.

That's why I'm against the whole "let's just leave them alone" crap.

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11 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Not good enough if they aren't playing more. They are being wasted if they aren't playing more. No wonder we lack depth on the National team, like Floro and Zambrano said, the problem isn't talent, it's the lack of minutes at club level.

If I'm talking lack of minutes for talented Canadian kids on Canadians clubs, there's a problem here. I care more about a stronger, deeper and consistent national team than the entertainment of MLS fans.

TFC can be on  winning streak, so what??? We're on path to miss the HEX again, and potentially another world cup. 

They'll never agree to it.

How sure are you that the 3 teams are interested in a change of rule? By having BOTH Canadians and Americans as domestics, they get their cake and eat it to at the expense of young Canadians who could use the playing time.

That's why I'm against the whole "let's just leave them alone" crap.

The whole MLS structure is absurd. It’s designed to produce American players, we’re guests in their league. 

College drafts are the primary vehicle for player acquisition in MLS (at least they have been, some clubs now have academies). Those drafts take a 22/3 yr old (who has already missed his most formative football years by playing at an amateur college level) and plop him on the bench of an MLS club while he ‘develops’ until he’s in his mid-late twenties! Naturally the vast majority of drafted players are American. 

The Canadian clubs in MLS just happen to be located in Canada. Like franchises from other American leagues, the location of the actual franchise has little to nothing to do with its roster composition. This is perhaps what I hate most about MLS. I love that most soccer clubs around the world have several locally produced players. 
 

Over the last few years, the Canadian MLS clubs have started to make some effort to produce their own players, but there is no incentive for them to do it, so it remains fairly ancillary. They could just as easily (and without having to do any development at all) field a bunch of American college players. TFC might have ‘as many Canadians as Americans’ but that in and of itself is ridiculous! Americans should be foreign players in our clubs, just as we are in theirs. 
 

 

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33 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Not good enough if they aren't playing more. They are being wasted if they aren't playing more. No wonder we lack depth on the National team, like Floro and Zambrano said, the problem isn't talent, it's the lack of minutes at club level.

If I'm talking lack of minutes for talented Canadian kids on Canadians clubs, there's a problem here. I care more about a stronger, deeper and consistent national team than the entertainment of MLS fans.

TFC can be on  winning streak, so what??? We're on path to miss the HEX again, and potentially another world cup. 

They'll never agree to it.

How sure are you that the 3 teams are interested in a change of rule? By having BOTH Canadians and Americans as domestics, they get their cake and eat it to at the expense of young Canadians who could use the playing time.

That's why I'm against the whole "let's just leave them alone" crap.

May it not be their choice to agree to it if CSA in hand with Victor CONCACAF push it on them , with the objective being Canadian opportunities?

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Someone really needs to start a separate thread on sanctioning and move the debate there. So this thread can be about CPL expansion again. 

I will say this though. TFC having so many Americans is a joke. And MLS is struggling at developing young domestic talent on both sides of the border. 

Also I doubt the CSA moves to force the MLS clubs to CPL. Hell they were allowing Fury to continue in USL. Fury pulled the plug on their own. 

Edited by narduch

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53 minutes ago, narduch said:

...Fury pulled the plug on their own. 

...and the FC Miami and Atletico Ottawa deals happened suspiciously quickly afterwards meaning they were probably effectively paid to go away. Not so easy to do that with the three MLS franchises.

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