CPL new teams speculation

[toontownman]

I'm down. Especially if the camera pans up for the team reveal and the person says .. "Sorry were you expecting someone else?"

[ted]

15 hours ago, Lofty said:

So, with the advent of CPL, I see MLS franchises in Canada as a net negative for Canadian football. 

The CanPL only needs one or two more successful seasons and the MLS teams will get the full "Fury" treatment so don't worry about it.

[DrummingInMySleep]

12 minutes ago, ted said:

The CanPL only needs one or two more successful seasons and the MLS teams will get the full "Fury" treatment so don't worry about it.

A few more as in 3-4? Try a few more decades. 
That said, it’s hard not to see at least 2/3 come home eventually. 

[T_Bison]

27 minutes ago, DrummingInMySleep said:

A few more as in 3-4? Try a few more decades. 
That said, it’s hard not to see at least 2/3 come home eventually. 

I think you're right but they won't get the Fury treatment - I think they are at a high enough level above the CPL and have existed in that league a lot longer than the CPL has been in existence that they won't get forced. That being said, I agree that VWFC & IMFC's owners might look and think that they will make a lot more money if they sell their MLS franchise and start in the CPL. Especially if the transfers continue.

[Ansem]

49 minutes ago, DrummingInMySleep said:

A few more as in 3-4? Try a few more decades. 

According to sources, the waiver allowing the 3 MLS clubs to not have to renew their sanction in the US yearly is "Much shorter than 40 years"*

*(40 years was pitched on Twitter to Mikki Turner who said that he was told by sources to the league on how long it was...he replied that it was much shorter than 40 years...emphasis on much".

With TFC being in the league since 2007, we're already 13 years into the waiver assuming MLS didn't want the uncertainty of having to re-apply yearly to the CSA & CONCACAF (Makes sense due to the Single Entity structure).

So even if the waiver was 20 years, that beings us to 2027...even 25 years brings us to 2032.

That being said, when the waiver expires I believe that the CSA will do the same as for the Fury. They will file the sanctioning papers knowing that CONCACAF and/or FIFA will block it evoking article 73 saying that they don't see "Exceptional Clause" applying to the 3 clubs due to the existence of the CPL.*

Just imagine where that league will be Post 2026 World Cup.*

So that's why I always say, "Post 2026 World Cup" for getting those 3 cities in CPL. There's no point for CPL to actively seek clubs into those markets knowing that they will eventually get there one way or another. So focusing on occupying everywhere else through the different Tier is the way to go.

You grow the league to the point it makes sense for the 3 ownership to join it post 2026, which makes NO SENSE as of today. That explains CPL focusing on being stable and long term viability. The league will hit "2.0" when those 3 owners join, until then, the "1.0" era is where you stabilize, consolidate your viability and grow organically while fixing what doesn't work.

49 minutes ago, DrummingInMySleep said:

That said, it’s hard not to see at least 2/3 come home eventually. 

It would be all 3 but to clarify

1-The clubs would not be "transfer" or "forced" into CPL as their IP are owned by MLS. They would simply be "denied" the permission to play in MLS while being Canada-based

2-Options :

A) Move the franchises to US and keep operating them

B ) Sell their franchises to another Ownership (Over 10 times their initial entry fee + cashing all those expansion fees) & fold like the Fury

C) Sell their franchises to another Ownership & launch new clubs within their markets in CPL (most likely outcome)

3-Assuming they wouldn't forfeit the market to someone else,  they would launch new CPL clubs but wouldn't be called TFC, Impact or Whitecaps* unless they have some deal to keep the original names...which I doubt MLS would allow.

*Start speculating how those 3 should be named

Conclusion...CPL, CSA & CONCACAF/FIFA are just waiting for the waiver to expire.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Ansem

[Blackdude]

Waivers can be extended. Academies is the one thing that CPL teams don't necessarly have. And if we look at CPL signings, how many Canadian players were helped through MLS Academy? That's the one thing that I want to see from all CPL teams before forcing MLS teams to join. 

[Ansem]

31 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

Waivers can be extended.

Yes but there won't be valid grounds to do so next time they have to reapply.

 

31 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

Academies is the one thing that CPL teams don't necessarily have. And if we look at CPL signings, how many Canadian players were helped through MLS Academy? That's the one thing that I want to see from all CPL teams before forcing MLS teams to join. 

Looks like reserve squads are more likely than academies. Seems like they prefer to rely on the regional academies to supply them with talents. I was listening to a podcast where it was explained why CPL clubs choose not to launch academies (alienating existing academies who would view this as direct competition) and I recall another podcast highlighting the business analysis of the cost of running academies vs results/getting a return.

16 minute mark

https://northernstartingeleven.com/premier-podcast-s01e14-riding-high/

To which it was pointed out that our 3 MLS teams haven't been very successful there. That's why they prefer partnering with existing academies instead of competing against them this early in their existence and focus available funds in making their teams viable while developing talents to get a return. (buy low/sell high)*

*Joel Waterman

Might change in the future but I understand the short to medium term logic behind it. I understand your point that MLS Academies has helped CPL getting talent but at the core, this is a business and those academies haven't help those clubs nearly enough in comparison to the cost of running those academies (Davies would be a huge exception to that).

MLS, in my opinion, has an "identity crisis". CPL 1.0 clearly wants to be a selling league focused on developing talents, so are academies really that vital when there are existing academies with whom they can partner with? Good question

Edited January 29, 2020 by Ansem

[narduch]

MLS academies seem more like a marketing tool than a way to develop players. 

[Ansem]

8 minutes ago, narduch said:

MLS academies seem more like a marketing tool than a way to develop players. 

I added the link to the podcast.

He's referring to the Whitecaps academy as "Western Canada colonies" so good point there

[toontownman]

I think post 2026 will be an interesting time. 

Unless the league is close enough to offering the same type of standard and money as MLS I think its ultimately detrimental to force the MLS clubs in. As mentioned above, the academies, the wages, the quality and level of play, coaches and players they get to play against and train with is a huge benefit. We have the best of both worlds currently. 

If anything the MLS could fob the teams off but they wont because they wont want the CPL competition and they like the big markets and appearance of the league being big. It would legitimize the CPL if it happened. Obviously at the present time the Canadian MLS teams would be a shell of themselves due to the salary caps and difference in money between the leagues. 

I'd be surprised if the situation isnt seriously looked at post world cup hosting though. If the league has grown considerably maybe some conversations will happen. 

Honestly we are talking a decade or two though imo. 

[narduch]

18 minutes ago, Ansem said:

I added the link to the podcast.

He's referring to the Whitecaps academy as "Western Canada colonies" so good point there

Its not just that.

Its for the façade of running an 'authentic' football club the way they do in Europe.

Sign a few Academy players each year. Who cares if they pan out. Your hardcore fanbase eats that shit up with no questions asked.

[Bison44]

2 minutes ago, narduch said:

Its not just that.

Its for the façade of running an 'authentic' football club the way they do in Europe.

Sign a few Academy players each year. Who cares if they pan out. Your hardcore fanbase eats that **** up with no questions asked.

I think its more than lip service.  These guys know that if you have local supporters groups, the local associations, youth groups etc on your side then marketing the club is way easier.  And if (for example) TFC can get a Henry, Morgan, Fraser, Okello and now and again a shooting star like Nelsen (cross your fingers) it might not make the most sense investment wise, but they'll get some of their money back with sales.  Which is something you'll never do if you are drafting 22 year old college kids or signing journymen every year to fill up the roster.  

[narduch]

The funny thing is TFC"s biggest ever sale was a college draft pick.

Edited January 29, 2020 by narduch

[nfitz]

18 minutes ago, narduch said:

The funny thing is TFC"s biggest ever sale was a college draft pick.

I think that TFC's biggest ever sale was more than that. Wasn't it the Bloody Big Deal?

[narduch]

8 minutes ago, nfitz said:

I think that TFC's biggest ever sale was more than that. Wasn't it the Bloody Big Deal?

Wasn't that essentially a trade?

Edit: went to go look up the news articles on that. Theyclaim TFC was getting back a 'significant' amount of money. Which sounds like TFC using its mouthepieces to save some face.

Edited January 29, 2020 by narduch

[nfitz]

Ironically, Altidore seems to have performed better post-trade than mummy's boy!

[Ansem]

12 minutes ago, toontownman said:

Unless the league is close enough to offering the same type of standard and money as MLS I think its ultimately detrimental to force the MLS clubs in. As mentioned above, the academies, the wages, the quality and level of play, coaches and players they get to play against and train with is a huge benefit. We have the best of both worlds currently. 

All valid points but here are my counter arguments

• Same type of standard: It's actually very frequent to see huge disparity between top clubs and bottom clubs in most leagues. I think there was a year where PSG spent close to half the league combined while they still routinely thrash everyone else. "Forced parity" isn't that much of thing elsewhere so unless the disparity is flagrantly shocking, I don't think CPL vs. MLS moves CONCACAF that much. CPL being a CONCACAF "Top 5" league would be sufficient. Pure parity isn't required in my opinion. The 3 would end up being the "Barca, AT & RM" of CPL or the "Saprissa & Herediano" of CONCACAF

 

• The benefits you're pointing out like would be more beneficial in reverse in the long run. Instead of being to the benefit of just 3 clubs and a handful of a few players, you're exposing hundreds of Canadian players to this quality & professionalism & standards of those ownership which, should push the rest of the clubs to do much better by learning from them. So the league & clubs as a whole improves even more. I think Wheeldon and Smyrniotis are excellent coaches, just as capable in my opinion

 

• Money: This is where I hope CPL do the right thing, which I think they will. Getting those 3 cities into CPL means you're pretty much set and viability would no longer be a question. However, you got to change the salary structure to allow them to be the clubs they want to be. Hypothetically, Champions League berth would be shifted/added, meaning they would built squads with CCL aspirations while being in a position to lock down CPL championship most of the time. Restricting their ability to compete in CCL would be wrong but I think that if we get there, the league will acknowledge that an relax the salary enough to make sense to them. 

Also, the 3 clubs could easily end up doing what's being done elsewhere... siphoning the best of CPL to build depth in their squads while adding good internationals and start their "best 6 out 11" in CPL while having no roster restriction in CONCACAF. You don't need to be spending "MLS money" to be competitive in CONCACAF and be Canada's Champion.

 

30 minutes ago, toontownman said:

If anything the MLS could fob the teams off but they wont because they wont want the CPL competition and they like the big markets and appearance of the league being big. It would legitimize the CPL if it happened. Obviously at the present time the Canadian MLS teams would be a shell of themselves due to the salary caps and difference in money between the leagues. 

At the core, it comes down to making money. Most would argue that there's opportunity for them to actually turn a "profit" in CPL due to lower operational costs and currency (which is massive).  Also, winning championships, building a legacy and being recurrent CCL participating maximizes the potential outcome in my opinion.

As for the exposure, it really matters if you're making the finals or winning MLS Cup. Outside of that, US fans barely cares about our 3 teams, let alone buy their merch. One would assume that they are more likely to sell more merch elsewhere in Canada via CPL than in the USA if they end up building legacies, signing exciting players and win trophies

[Bison44]

49 minutes ago, narduch said:

The funny thing is TFC"s biggest ever sale was a college draft pick.

Wasnt it rumored they got over a million for Henry??  Edu was a special player (and first round pick) back when there still were some real quality guys in NCAA.    If they can make a sale now and again, that pays a chunk of the academy.   CPL is already having some success selling on former Usports and L10 players.  

[narduch]

The Henry move was shady af. Who knows what happened.

People complain about CPL transparency but MLS really isn't much better.

[Raven]

................. 😴

[Stouffvillain]

20 minutes ago, Ansem said:

All valid points but here are my counter arguments

• Same type of standard: It's actually very frequent to see huge disparity between top clubs and bottom clubs in most leagues. I think there was a year where PSG spent close to half the league combined while they still routinely thrash everyone else. "Forced parity" isn't that much of thing elsewhere so unless the disparity is flagrantly shocking, I don't think CPL vs. MLS moves CONCACAF that much. CPL being a CONCACAF "Top 5" league would be sufficient. Pure parity isn't required in my opinion. The 3 would end up being the "Barca, AT & RM" of CPL or the "Saprissa & Herediano" of CONCACAF

 

• The benefits you're pointing out like would be more beneficial in reverse in the long run. Instead of being to the benefit of just 3 clubs and a handful of a few players, you're exposing hundreds of Canadian players to this quality & professionalism & standards of those ownership which, should push the rest of the clubs to do much better by learning from them. So the league & clubs as a whole improves even more. I think Wheeldon and Smyrniotis are excellent coaches, just as capable in my opinion

 

• Money: This is where I hope CPL do the right thing, which I think they will. Getting those 3 cities into CPL means you're pretty much set and viability would no longer be a question. However, you got to change the salary structure to allow them to be the clubs they want to be. Hypothetically, Champions League berth would be shifted/added, meaning they would built squads with CCL aspirations while being in a position to lock down CPL championship most of the time. Restricting their ability to compete in CCL would be wrong but I think that if we get there, the league will acknowledge that an relax the salary enough to make sense to them. 

Also, the 3 clubs could easily end up doing what's being done elsewhere... siphoning the best of CPL to build depth in their squads while adding good internationals and start their "best 6 out 11" in CPL while having no roster restriction in CONCACAF. You don't need to be spending "MLS money" to be competitive in CONCACAF and be Canada's Champion.

 

At the core, it comes down to making money. Most would argue that there's opportunity for them to actually turn a "profit" in CPL due to lower operational costs and currency (which is massive).  Also, winning championships, building a legacy and being recurrent CCL participating maximizes the potential outcome in my opinion.

As for the exposure, it really matters if you're making the finals or winning MLS Cup. Outside of that, US fans barely cares about our 3 teams, let alone buy their merch. One would assume that they are more likely to sell more merch elsewhere in Canada via CPL than in the USA if they end up building legacies, signing exciting players and win trophies

Letting them (the 3 MLS clubs) be who they are if they come in and bending the rules for them just so that they could hold their own in CCL would be a massive mistake.  CPL doesn't have the 100 year history and community ties that clubs overseas have to keep the other clubs viable with the table slanted so much in the others favour.  We've seen this before and it was called the NASL. 

Also you've started a league with restrictions on spending to then throw it away because you want these owners/markets would be a slap in the face to the people that built up the league from the ground floor.  You don't think Mr. Greenpark Homes wants to spend some money to get a Daniele De Rossi type of draw into Y9 matches?  He's got the money but is playing the game by the rules for the betterment of the league.

Finally having those three markets in the league may not do much for viability of the league.  A lot of soccer people here don't like to hear it but the CPL has a lot of the same difficulties to overcome that the CFL does.  Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are all in that league and are the teams that are consistently in the biggest financial danger because the markets don't see the league as a top professional league.  

[Viruk42]

And it's official - https://canpl.ca/article/canadian-premier-league-awards-1st-expansion-team-to-ottawa

[dnina10]

37 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

And it's official - https://canpl.ca/article/canadian-premier-league-awards-1st-expansion-team-to-ottawa

Yessssssssssssssss😄😄😄😄, finally

[toontownman]

51 minutes ago, Ansem said:

At the core, it comes down to making money

Exactly this and the CPL being strong enough to both attract more money sponsorship to allow flexibility for the three MLS clubs and the those clubs not losing out in moving. 

Your points on standard and benefits simply only stand if the league operates on a larger scale and changes as you suggest. If the MLS 3 were to join now they would be the Barca/Atletico/Real only in name. What we would see to comply with the league would be a bare bones version, likely cuts made to academies and restructuring. That might not be the be all end all either. 

It is a jump that could validate and cement the CPL's future but its a potentially risky one for all three clubs if they are able to survive in the MLS currently (also a question mark long term so as you say maybe long term a benefit).  

I do personally like the standard of players the MLS Canadians get to play against. 

Not sure in term of numbers and money how much the MLS makes of Canada through tv etc. but if the Canadian teams leave who is watching the MLS. I think it would quickly drop from TV here once deals run out.  I sure as hell don't watch it for its quality! I just can't see the MLS wanting it to happen while they make money. 

If it happens it will also be largely linked to fans being vocal about wanting it. The CPL has to grow to a point where fans see the bigger picture and even in the quality isn't as high fans see it as worthwhile supporting and attending. It will come with time. 

I certainly look forward to the day all three join CPL and hope it happens. I don't want to see if happening before 2026 though as I think it will just be too soon. 

[youllneverwalkalone]

53 minutes ago, toontownman said:

I think post 2026 will be an interesting time. 

Unless the league is close enough to offering the same type of standard and money as MLS I think its ultimately detrimental to force the MLS clubs in. As mentioned above, the academies, the wages, the quality and level of play, coaches and players they get to play against and train with is a huge benefit. We have the best of both worlds currently. 

If anything the MLS could fob the teams off but they wont because they wont want the CPL competition and they like the big markets and appearance of the league being big. It would legitimize the CPL if it happened. Obviously at the present time the Canadian MLS teams would be a shell of themselves due to the salary caps and difference in money between the leagues. 

I'd be surprised if the situation isnt seriously looked at post world cup hosting though. If the league has grown considerably maybe some conversations will happen. 

Honestly we are talking a decade or two though imo. 

I don't disagree with anything you say, and may be completely naive, but I think our aspirations need to be higher for CPL. I'm not sure MLS has as big a lead on us as some think. The year before TFC entered the league, they had a hard cap of $1.9m. Our big three markets, particularly Toronto, have contributed a lot to the rapid growth of the league. If we took them back, I think attendance would grow rapidly across the league, both at the ground and on TV. The CFL has a $5.2m cap and are apparently in awe of some of the CPL deals. At that salary level, you wouldn't notice much disparity in quality with MLS -which can be painful to watch at times for all their DPs and other curious spending.