Jump to content
lazlo_80

CPL new teams speculation

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

In a league that charged a million or so to be a part of, they will need to justify a $9M expansion fee one year later.

You seem fixated on the $9M price tag. I’m curious about your rationale/method for valuation of a new club, other than “it was only $1M last year”.

Based on my back-of-the-envelope assumptions, I would be much more concerned if the fee was anything under $3M. 

Edited by IAmPappy
Valuation, not validating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, narduch said:

I would take Ozzie's posts with a huge grain of salt. 

He continuously rails against the imaginary boogeyman on this site. 

Most people here were hoping that the Fury would make the jump to CPL. 

Most of those that posted either wanted them in CPL or to fold. There was very little middle ground. 
As for Ozzie’s posts I enjoy reading a different perspective on things. I may not  agree with his points on certain matters but that doesn’t mean his other posts are off base. Too many folks have one opinion mainly based on group think and won’t see another angle. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IAmPappy said:

You seem fixated on the $9M price tag. I’m curious about your rationale/method for valuation of a new club, other than “it was only $1M last year”.

Based on my back-of-the-envelope assumptions, I would be much more concerned if the fee was anything under $3M. 

The expansion fee number isn’t my number it’s the CPL’s. And that was what the expansion fee was to start in the new league last year. 
It has stopped expansion into at least one market. Maybe a strong second season would justify that $9M expansion fee. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Ottawafan said:

The expansion fee number isn’t my number it’s the CPL’s. And that was what the expansion fee was to start in the new league last year. 
It has stopped expansion into at least one market. Maybe a strong second season would justify that $9M expansion fee. 

I think you missed my point.

The expansion fee number isn’t the CPL’s either. It’s a number from a source in Quebec Soccer that claims familiarity. My point is that none of us on this board know the specifics to judge true valuation. For all we know, $9M (if that’s the number) could be a bargain for a 1/8th share of CSB. It’s all about the valuation of CSB. MediaPro is apparently investing $200M in Canadian soccer (i.e. CSB) over 10 years. That alone, excluding gate, merch, parking, and concessions, could value a new club at $9M.

My opinion (and it’s as good and as bad as everyone else’s) is that the real issue is facilities. The $9M is just background noise for an investor looking at the 2026 opportunity. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, IAmPappy said:

I think you missed my point.

The expansion fee number isn’t the CPL’s either. It’s a number from a source in Quebec Soccer that claims familiarity. My point is that none of us on this board know the specifics to judge true valuation. For all we know, $9M (if that’s the number) could be a bargain for a 1/8th share of CSB. It’s all about the valuation of CSB. MediaPro is apparently investing $200M in Canadian soccer (i.e. CSB) over 10 years. That alone, excluding gate, merch, parking, and concessions, could value a new club at $9M.

My opinion (and it’s as good and as bad as everyone else’s) is that the real issue is facilities. The $9M is just background noise for an investor looking at the 2026 opportunity. 

I’ve never seen or heard anything about a report from Quebec Soccer so I can’t comment on what was said. 
What do you mean the real issue is facilities?  Are you talking Ottawa or other locations?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ottawafan said:

I’ve never seen or heard anything about a report from Quebec Soccer so I can’t comment on what was said. 
What do you mean the real issue is facilities?  Are you talking Ottawa or other locations?

Ottawa and every other prospective location. The perfect situation for any club would be to own/control a modern, intimate, ~10k-seat soccer-specific stadium, centrally located, with plenty of parking and public transit, and to own the parking and concession revenue, along with gate and merch. 

No location will satisfy all those factors, but an investor will need to align several of those factors before committing. My impression is that this has been the primary challenge in lower mainland BC, Southern Ontario, Montreal, Quebec, and even Ottawa. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

Most of those that posted either wanted them in CPL or to fold. There was very little middle ground
As for Ozzie’s posts I enjoy reading a different perspective on things. I may not  agree with his points on certain matters but that doesn’t mean his other posts are off base. Too many folks have one opinion mainly based on group think and won’t see another angle. 

I dont think anyone started off wanting the Fury to fold.  Lots of animosity got built up before CPL played a game and it only got ramped up by the sanctioning baloney that followed.  But once it was a choice of joining CPL or not being allowed to continue with USL....where was the middle ground that people could have chosen??   By that point alot of people were of the opinion that they did it to themselves and if they chose to fold so be it.  

As for perspective and group think, sometimes most people think one way because its the most logical way to look at it.  Complaining about group think or accusing people of acting like sheep doesnt actually make your opinions or point of view any more valid.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

By that point alot of people were of the opinion that they did it to themselves and if they chose to fold so be it.  

 Thanks for pointing that out. Instead of listening to the concerns of Fury and letting them provide a place for 15 Canadians to play soccer, many here took pleasure in the demise of the team because they didn’t want to join CPL. Which brings me back to my point about a previous poster; it’s my way or the highway. Not sure how this helps the development of the game. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

In a league that charged a million or so to be a part of, they will need to justify a $9M expansion fee one year later. 

The original fee was "pre-mediaPro deal". Anyone can see how MediaPro impacted the league's business and solidified its viability. You'd have to be unbelievably blind to not see that. Of course the fee will be higher.

9 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

See anyone joining this year?

Stadium are mostly the issue

9 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

Anyone at this point on track for 2021?

Safe to say we'll get expansions in Quebec (Quebec City) and Ontario (KW) sounds promising.

9 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

. I don’t feel the need to tear down others who are willing to put their time and money on the line to advance the game.

Most people understood why the Fury wanted to wait but they F'UP in the way they handled their decision publicly, throwing whoever they could under the bus. This is where (Outside of Ottawa it seems) the sympathy for OSEG vanished. They came across as incompetent, liars and petty. 

Have they handled their decision better, the Canadian soccer community would have been supportive of waiting it out longer.

9 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

But your mentality of our way or the highway is what is wrong with soccer in Canada. 

Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is also what's wrong with Soccer Canada.

How many Hex participation or World Cup participations do we have to show for under the status quo?

Change is uncomfortable for some but it was needed.

Edited by Ansem

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Ansem said:

The original fee was "pre-mediaPro deal". Anyone can see how MediaPro impacted the league's business and solidified its viability. You'd have to be unbelievably blind to not see that. Of course the fee will be higher.

Stadium are mostly the issue

Safe to say we'll get expansions in Quebec (Quebec City) and Ontario (KW) sounds promising.

Most people understood why the Fury wanted to hurt but they F'UP in the way they handled their decision publicly, throwing whoever they could under the bus. This is where (Outside of Ottawa it seems) the sympathy for OSEG vanished. They came across as incompetent, liars and petty. 

Have they handled their decision better, the Canadian soccer community would have been supportive of waiting it out longer.

Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is also what's wrong with Soccer Canada.

How many Hex participation or World Cup participations do we have to show for under the status quo?

Change is uncomfortable for some but it was needed.

You had one individual, the head of CONCACAF trying to muscle the Fury into the league. Once he threatened to sanction anyone who was helping the Fury,  he got his way. Not sure this qualifies as changing the status quo but he will make the CPL fans happy. It’s a shame the leaders of the game in Canada had only their best interests at heart. There was no need to try and strong arm the situation but he did out of ego and got his way. And it was all to force one team into the league that they would have most likely moved into next year. The butthurtedness was strong amongst the CPL fans on this matter. 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ottawafan said:

You had one individual, the head of CONCACAF trying to muscle the Fury into the league. Once he threatened to sanction anyone who was helping the Fury,  he got his way. Not sure this qualifies as changing the status quo but he will make the CPL fans happy. It’s a shame the leaders of the game in Canada had only their best interests at heart. There was no need to try and strong arm the situation but he did out of ego and got his way. And it was all to force one team into the league that they would have most likely moved into next year. The butthurtedness was strong amongst the CPL fans on this matter. 
 

Best you save your energy for cheering the next Ottawa club than nostalgia over OSEG.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

 Thanks for pointing that out. Instead of listening to the concerns of Fury and letting them provide a place for 15 Canadians to play soccer, many here took pleasure in the demise of the team because they didn’t want to join CPL. Which brings me back to my point about a previous poster; it’s my way or the highway. Not sure how this helps the development of the game. 

I dont get it, there was no other option, Fifa says no USL, OSEG says no to CPL......what other option was there?  They knew the fall before that they were going to have to switch leagues.  They probably could have gotten in on the ground floor still, the low fee at that time and they said no.  And by that time the story was already out that Deguz was telling people not to sign with CPL.  I cant feel sorry for them later on, what did they think was going to happen? It was telling to me that they would rather risk shutting down completely than take a chance with CPL.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always felt that CONCACAF tightening up the sanctioning of cross-border leagues had WAAAAAY more to do with trying to kill something before it breeds.  Tying to head off a forseeable threat, a bigger threat, elsewhere in the region.  Still feel that way. 

For CONCACAF, CPL was a convienent answer to closing out the USL venture in Canada which, inconviently, wasn't utilized by the one party most effected.  

Feels harsh now, Ottawa closing up shop, but I also feel this is going to very quickly be a very big net benefit to all of Canadian soccerdom.

Ever the optimist

ZenCheeta

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

I dont get it, there was no other option, Fifa says no USL, OSEG says no to CPL......what other option was there? 

They could have easily been grandfathered into USL and let be. It's not like they were going to be trying to poach Quebec City and other markets into the USL, they were the only team in the league and there was not going to be any others, the same way that Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are in MLS and there are not going to be any others. If the CPL is going to expand at the rate that they keep claiming then it would be obvious over the next five years that the Fury would be better off in the CPL and nature would take its course. Instead Ottawa has neither league and there are Canadians like Carl Haworth that are playing in the US instead of at home.

People are fixated on OSEG saying no but at the moment, every other business person in Canada has said 'no'. They talk big on expansion but have nothing to show for it. The proverbial "30 days" drags on forever.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's interesting rehashing what did or could have happened in Ottawa; I have had waves of pro-OSEG, anti-CPL and anti-OSEG, pro-CPL opinions myself.  But what's done is done and I'm had it with the blame game.  Let's move on and HOPE that the CPL will have a team in Ottawa sooner rather than later.  I'm gonna fill my summer attending CEBL basketball locally (and Euro 2020).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cheeta said:

I always felt that CONCACAF tightening up the sanctioning of cross-border leagues had WAAAAAY more to do with trying to kill something before it breeds.  Tying to head off a forseeable threat, a bigger threat, elsewhere in the region.  Still feel that way.

It could not have bred because CONCACAF could have refused any future requests by Canadian teams for sanction in USL while leaving alone the exisiting ONE. In much the same way they are leaving alone the American MLS franchises currently based in Canadian cities.

You may count me as one CPL fan who is disgusted with the way this was handled.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

9 hours ago, PaulV said:

They could have easily been grandfathered into USL and let be. It's not like they were going to be trying to poach Quebec City and other markets into the USL, they were the only team in the league and there was not going to be any others, the same way that Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are in MLS and there are not going to be any others. If the CPL is going to expand at the rate that they keep claiming then it would be obvious over the next five years that the Fury would be better off in the CPL and nature would take its course. Instead Ottawa has neither league and there are Canadians like Carl Haworth that are playing in the US instead of at home.

There is a difference between teams that have been in a significantly larger league (by budget/spending) for over a decade and a team that had literally just switched leagues two years ago. The Fury had no real long standing ties to USL and there is no real way you can justify saying that they deserved to be grandfathered in. It's also not about the potential for USL to poach other markets, it's about the fact that the team in Canada's capital should be in Canada's national league ffs. 

-signed someone who was born, raised, and continues to live in Ottawa (inside the greenbelt, not one of those not-really-Ottawa areas) who saw the writing on the wall when the Fury first switched to USL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Ottawafan said:

 Thanks for pointing that out. Instead of listening to the concerns of Fury and letting them provide a place for 15 Canadians to play soccer, many here took pleasure in the demise of the team because they didn’t want to join CPL. Which brings me back to my point about a previous poster; it’s my way or the highway. Not sure how this helps the development of the game. 

We are hopefully in the process of achieving exactly what some of us maintained was the best option if OSEG were unwilling to join CPL.  Yes, soccer has temporarily moved out of Ottawa.  And I am sure as a local fan, that sucks.  But if it clears the way for an Ottawa-based CPL team, we will have the best of both worlds: a pro footy team in Ottawa and a national league that benefits from the  participation of one of our larger urban centres.  Establishing a strong national league is the most important thing we can do for the long term growth of Canadian footy. 

And in that light, Ottawa's extended exclusion from CPL in no way served the long term interests of Canadian soccer.  Yes, their participation in USL provided an avenue for Canadian players to play pro, but as far as I know those guys are now in the process of finding new clubs to play at - including CPL clubs where they will help strengthen the league. 

IMO, the Fury closing shop can only be viewed as a net-negative if it represents a long term moratorium on pro soccer in the city.  If we are 4 or 5 years down the road, and there is still no pro footy in the city, the folding of Fury will have been a loss for Canadian footy.  But if, as CPL maintains, we see a new pro CPL club established in Ottawa in the next couple of years, it will be a net gain for Canadian soccer - a gain that could only have been otherwise achieved if OSEG had decided to join the league.  The other scenarios (no soccer forever or Fury continuing in USL) are both inferior options. And the people who were (and are) maintaining that are not some gleeful nihilists; they are simply advocating for the steps required to have the strongest national league possible.

Edited by dyslexic nam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Viruk42 said:

 

There is a difference between teams that have been in a significantly larger league (by budget/spending) for over a decade and a team that had literally just switched leagues two years ago. The Fury had no real long standing ties to USL and there is no real way you can justify saying that they deserved to be grandfathered in. It's also not about the potential for USL to poach other markets, it's about the fact that the team in Canada's capital should be in Canada's national league ffs. 

-signed someone who was born, raised, and continues to live in Ottawa (inside the greenbelt, not one of those not-really-Ottawa areas) who saw the writing on the wall when the Fury first switched to USL

I think there is also a common sense question about what is best for the long term growth of Canadian soccer.  As per my post above, I think it is better for an Ottawa-sized club to be in CPL rather than USL.  I won't rehash that.

But when it comes to the MLS clubs, we constantly see the positive results of having the big 3 in the league.  Those teams are providing developmental opportunities and a level of competition for national team calibre players that we won't see in CPL - at least for a while (and possibly never).  Thus, while desanctioning the Fury doesn't harm Canadian footy at the national level (and should ultimately strengthen it over the long term) the same cannot be said for the 3 MLS clubs.  Forcing them into CPL as it currently exists would directly result in lower competition for many of our Nats.  If CPL ever gets to the point where it is truly competitive with MLS in terms of quality and economics, I could see this issue being reconsidered, but that is a long way off. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

rium on pro soccer in the city.  If we are 4 or 5 years down the road, and there is still no pro footy in the city, the folding of Fury will have been a loss for Canadian footy.  But if, as CPL maintains, we see a new pro CPL club established in Ottawa in the next couple of years, it will be a net gain for Canadian soccer - a gain that could only have been otherwise achieved if OSEG had decided to join the league.  The other scenarios (no soccer forever or Fury continuing in USL) are both inferior options. And the people who were (and are) maintaining that are not some gleeful nihilists; they are simply advocating for the steps required to have the strongest national league possible.

lebowski-824.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...