CPL new teams speculation

[Xavier]

On 7/20/2017 at 9:33 AM, Initial B said:

So how many cities are we looking at right now?

Certain: Hamilton, Winnipeg

Almost Certain: Halifax

Likely: ?

Rumored: Burnaby, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, London, K-W, Mississauga, Vaughan, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Moncton, St John's  

Anything missing?

Fraser Valley

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

From what I have seen in declining order of seriousness where 2018 or 2019 is concerned:

In for sure: Hamilton, Winnipeg

In pending pop-up deals being finalized: Halifax, Saskatchewan

Mainstream media article of solid interest & active contacts with PDL fan group: K/W

Credible mainstream journalist mention, Rob Friend & Facebook activity: Fraser Valley

Some level of ongoing contact with USSF D2 teams: Edmonton, Ottawa

Recent mainstream media mentions: Moncton, St John's

Weaker indications this year by CPL figures of possible activity: Victoria, Calgary, Quebec City (?)

Active fan group activity acknowledged by PB, but with no sign of an investor yet: Mississauga

Duane Rollins: Toronto x3, Trois Rivieres

Anthony Totera: Markham, London

 

Edited July 22, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[Copes]

On 7/20/2017 at 11:33 AM, m-g-williams said:

Not to nitpick, but those economic/employment stats are seriously out-of-date. Oil production in the province has been declining for some time now, and the slump in oil prices has really hit the province hard, driven up unemployment and resulted in much bleaker budgets than in the past. I was lucky enough to live there for a few years just before the peak, but going back now and talking to people back on the island, it's a whole different story.

I seriously hope that Beirne has some sort of corporate deal/sponsorship in the works for travel, because that would 100% change my outlook on this. If he's that confident, I'm just hoping and praying that this turns out to be the case.

Also, when citing ethnic origin . . . you forgot to include the appropriate breakdown of townies, baymen and skeets.

I don't post here nearly often enough, but I just want to echo what m-g-williams sad. I'm a Nova Scotian who has been living in St. John's for the past 10 years, and I think m-g-williams is almost entirely right. St. John's would be a big, big risk as an early team in the league. However, I am a bit more confident about their potential once the league is established. I think that if CPL grows, St. John's would become a natural fit as an expansion team.

In regards to the Ice Caps, I have a very close friend who worked within the organization. From my understanding, the primary cause of the teams leaving was travel - but not because the team had to fly off the island or because other teams had to fly here. The travel challenges were in relation to calling up hockey players from the AHL team to the NHL team. Because of how terrible weather is in NL in the winter time, it became a real nightmare for Winnipeg and Montreal to try to coordinate callups. Players had long flights to and from the island, but also the risk of planes being grounded or players unable to return home after they were called up became really difficult. Serious headache when you consider how many games the NHL plays and how frequently the callups were. Ultimately, both teams wanted to have their farm team closer to home. 

Attendance in NL honestly wouldn't be a problem, I will put money on that now. The provincial Challenge Cup finals at KGV each year draw a CPL crowd. St. John's has a population 217.000 within the census metropolitan area. Outside of that though, you have the soccer-obsessed Burin Penninsula which has 20,000 people, as well as the wider Avalon which has another 50,000. I guarantee you there are soccer fans in Burin who will drive in for games. I really think you're looking at a market of about 300,000, and its a market that already fills KGV for local amateur soccer competitions. 

In closing, I think a CPL team in St. John's becomes increasingly likely after year 3, and is inevitable if the league proves viable. However, it is not going to happen at launch.

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

On 2017/07/22 at 1:28 PM, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

From what I have seen in declining order of seriousness where 2018 or 2019 is concerned:

In for sure: Hamilton, Winnipeg

In pending pop-up deals being finalized: Halifax, Saskatchewan

Mainstream media article of solid interest & active contacts with PDL fan group: K/W

Credible mainstream journalist mention, Rob Friend & Facebook activity: Fraser Valley

Some level of ongoing contact with USSF D2 teams: Edmonton, Ottawa

Recent mainstream media mentions: Moncton, St John's

Weaker indications this year by CPL figures of possible activity: Victoria, Calgary, Quebec City (?)

Active fan group activity acknowledged by PB, but with no sign of an investor yet: Mississauga

Duane Rollins: Toronto x3, Trois Rivieres

Anthony Totera: Markham, London

 

These posts when taken with following mainstream media media story are worth noting as they appear to confirm Calgary Foothills involvement:

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/soccer/calgarys-foothills-fc-developing-into-premier-soccer-franchise

Think Paul Beirne's ten are:

Halifax, Quebec City, Ottawa Fury, Hamilton, K-W United, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, Calgary Foothills, FC Edmonton and Fraser Valley

with Quebec City being the most speculative.

 

Edited July 24, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[shamrock]

I don't think either Edmonton nor Ottawa Fury will be starting teams in the CPL. You can't blame them for fence sitting about the new league. Let's just first see where this is going and if it's viable, before jumping ship. If the conditions are right in a couple of seasons, they'll reconsider for sure. 

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

Ottawa isn't completely inconceivable at launch given they have already league hopped once but Edmonton seems very unlikely as their owner holds a lot of Class B shares in the league through being in at the beginning and that is supposed to be an advantage where cashing in on expansion fees is concerned. Was reading recently that the USSF is demanding a list of participating teams for 2018 from the USL and the NASL as soon as the end of next month probably to avoid a repeat of last year's soap opera, so if any changes are happening on that we should be hearing about it quite soon. My guess is that the league launches in 2019 or possibly even 2020 as the pop-up or modular stadium angle takes more time to put together than just the construction angle. It's worth noting that even Halifax isn't a sure thing yet from that standpoint.

http://midfieldpress.com/2017/07/21/nasl-nisa-usl-expansion-news-rumors-tracker-july-2017-edition/

Midfield Press understands that the NASL and USL need to report which clubs will be playing in their leagues for 2018 to the United States Soccer Federation by the end of August.  Therefore it is likely any teams to start play in 2018 will be announced by the end of the Summer.

Edited July 24, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[mpg_29]

In a way it might be good to base the economic model on the sub-million population cities...as they are going to be the majority of the league. Whether it will work is another thing.

Edited July 24, 2017 by mpg_29

[ironcub14]

Will quickly say that there has been far more debate and discussion about whether the Fury will join CPL or not than there ever was about whether the Fury would join USL or not

[mpg_29]

If true...have to think this might kill NASL and ultimately lead Edmonton FC to jump to CPL..

[ReedOnTheGrand]

16 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

If true...have to think this might kill NASL and ultimately lead Edmonton FC to jump to CPL..

With SF failing and your best team pulling out, likely. 

[mpg_29]

12 minutes ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

With SF failing and your best team pulling out, likely. 

Yeah...have to think if either Miami FC or NY Cosmos leave it will leave that league in rough shape...

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

On top of what you guys are saying... If I remember right the NASL needs 12 teams next year to retain their Div 2 status. Right now they are at 8, with two expansion sides starting next year. If the league loses Div 2 status it will very likely fold. I can't see any of the teams sticking around to play Div 3, especially Miami with the possible MLS side coming. 

[grasshopper1917]

18 minutes ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

On top of what you guys are saying... If I remember right the NASL needs 12 teams next year to retain their Div 2 status. Right now they are at 8, with two expansion sides starting next year. If the league loses Div 2 status it will very likely fold. I can't see any of the teams sticking around to play Div 3, especially Miami with the possible MLS side coming. 

Not really sure if it matters what status is stuck on the league - Div2 Div3 Div475 ect ..... I think the problem is/was 2 fold. 1) They wanted to try and compete with MLS and this was a total failure. 2) Now they want to be division 2 but their cost structures are too high for any of the clubs to make any money. 

On the other hand many USL clubs are running on a shoestring budget. From what I understand it takes a very tight budget to make money in minor league professional soccer in the USA (in most markets). USL for the most part is working towards that - NASL has a long way to go and I think will just collapse before they get there. You can call USL 'DIV X' and NASL 'DIV Y' the reality is most people just see both leagues as minor leagues below MLS. People who watch more closely tend to acknowledge that NASL for the most part has a higher quality on field product. I don't think an artificial label would change any of that.  

[ChrisinOrleans]

Alright, my first time posting as a Voyageur...

Since this is about speculation, one of the things that I'd like to add to the discussion are the revenue numbers in Francophone media. Of the cities mentioned, several are below 500k in terms of population, and some have high unemployment rates and crashing slowing economies. However, in French-Canadian markets (or markets where Francophones constitute a major presence), there are some interesting stats regarding media penetration and competition. I posted this to Twitter about three weeks ago.

These markets all have their own local Radio-Canada affiliate in French (except Kingston, which uses Ottawa's), a population of over 150k and with the exception of Saguenay and St. John's, very strong economies. For example, the current unemployment rate in Québec and Lévis is 5%, lower than the provincial and national average. It also have 8 - 10 major company headquarters in the city. That would make it the biggest and most important market in CanPL to date, if it accepts. 

The main bonus though would be the media revenue. Radio-Canada has almost no competition for sports coverage, as Québecor (owners of TVA) make you pay separately for TVA Sports, and RDS (French TSN) is not standard on all packages, and does not cover the Impact at all. However, all French speakers, whether online, via TV or through their car's radio antenna, get Radio-Canada. From a major network perspective as well, Radio-Canada is one of the most watched networks in French markets, with much deeper market penetration than the CBC in English. 

Currently, the CanPL has no penetration in French (literally, they haven't even bothered to translate the site... bèn voyons) and Francophones and french-speakers compose 30% of the country, with a population of around 10-million coast to coast. That's the size of Sweden! This is a market that lacks major sports coverage (TVA Sports shows high school sports, and Ultimate Frisbee as actual, legitimate sporting shows) and is ripe for the entry of some anchor teams in French markets.  

If Regina is a serious option for the CanPL; I'd like to formally start blustering about three teams in the Québec marketplace; in Québec and Lévis (Stade Telus), Laval and the Rive-Nord (Collège Montmorency) and Gatineau (Parc Ernest-Gaboury - current home of FC Gatineau). Moncton is already here, so I'll skip Stade de Moncton.  

Each of those cities currently has a PLSQ team, an academy structure, and a stadium, and very little media competition.  

 

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

1 hour ago, grasshopper1917 said:

Not really sure if it matters what status is stuck on the league - Div2 Div3 Div475 ect ..... I think the problem is/was 2 fold. 1) They wanted to try and compete with MLS and this was a total failure. 2) Now they want to be division 2 but their cost structures are too high for any of the clubs to make any money. 

On the other hand many USL clubs are running on a shoestring budget. From what I understand it takes a very tight budget to make money in minor league professional soccer in the USA (in most markets). USL for the most part is working towards that - NASL has a long way to go and I think will just collapse before they get there. You can call USL 'DIV X' and NASL 'DIV Y' the reality is most people just see both leagues as minor leagues below MLS. People who watch more closely tend to acknowledge that NASL for the most part has a higher quality on field product. I don't think an artificial label would change any of that.  

I think it matters more to the management then the fans. There was plenty of talk around the Division label in the offseason. It was my understanding that it was really important to the owners to get the label or they would back out and move to the USL. 

Edited July 31, 2017 by BenFisk'sBiggestFan

[DannyFromToronto23]

King George V Park would be a good venue 

 

[Symp_Res]

4 hours ago, ChrisinOrleans said:

Alright, my first time posting as a Voyageur...

Since this is about speculation, one of the things that I'd like to add to the discussion are the revenue numbers in Francophone media. Of the cities mentioned, several are below 500k in terms of population, and some have high unemployment rates and crashing slowing economies. However, in French-Canadian markets (or markets where Francophones constitute a major presence), there are some interesting stats regarding media penetration and competition. I posted this to Twitter about three weeks ago.

These markets all have their own local Radio-Canada affiliate in French (except Kingston, which uses Ottawa's), a population of over 150k and with the exception of Saguenay and St. John's, very strong economies. For example, the current unemployment rate in Québec and Lévis is 5%, lower than the provincial and national average. It also have 8 - 10 major company headquarters in the city. That would make it the biggest and most important market in CanPL to date, if it accepts. 

The main bonus though would be the media revenue. Radio-Canada has almost no competition for sports coverage, as Québecor (owners of TVA) make you pay separately for TVA Sports, and RDS (French TSN) is not standard on all packages, and does not cover the Impact at all. However, all French speakers, whether online, via TV or through their car's radio antenna, get Radio-Canada. From a major network perspective as well, Radio-Canada is one of the most watched networks in French markets, with much deeper market penetration than the CBC in English. 

Currently, the CanPL has no penetration in French (literally, they haven't even bothered to translate the site... bèn voyons) and Francophones and french-speakers compose 30% of the country, with a population of around 10-million coast to coast. That's the size of Sweden! This is a market that lacks major sports coverage (TVA Sports shows high school sports, and Ultimate Frisbee as actual, legitimate sporting shows) and is ripe for the entry of some anchor teams in French markets.  

If Regina is a serious option for the CanPL; I'd like to formally start blustering about three teams in the Québec marketplace; in Québec and Lévis (Stade Telus), Laval and the Rive-Nord (Collège Montmorency) and Gatineau (Parc Ernest-Gaboury - current home of FC Gatineau). Moncton is already here, so I'll skip Stade de Moncton.  

Each of those cities currently has a PLSQ team, an academy structure, and a stadium, and very little media competition.  

 

I really like this...the more the merrier!

Besides, us Saskatchewanians need more teams to hate...there's only so much hate we can throw to Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton (and Toronto too...just because!!).

Welcome!!

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

10 hours ago, ReedOnTheGrand said:

With SF failing and your best team pulling out, likely. 

I suspect the 2018 launch scenario probably revolves around an NASL death spiral prompted by this. Things seem to be much more upbeat about the prospect of Miami MLS expansion happening now, so one way or another FC Miami's days are probably numbered at this point. On the flip side the NASL have two expansion franchises announced for next year and one alleged to be about to, so they might be able to survive an SF departure while Miami keeps going for another year in a Minnesota United sort of way. Jacksonville was league owned initally this year and they could easily do the same in SF to try to right the ship.

[ted]

On 7/19/2017 at 9:00 PM, Complete Homer said:

Unless I misheard that particular part, there certainly seems at least the occassional implication that Victoria[PDL] is involved somehow

Sorry to go so far back but I missed this earlier.

Yes, you misheard. The Highlanders front office has no interest in CanPL, and no ability to even consider CanPL as an option currently. The only way the Highlanders get involved is if someone with "deep pockets" buys the team.

[BenFisk'sBiggestFan]

18 hours ago, ChrisinOrleans said:

Alright, my first time posting as a Voyageur...

Since this is about speculation, one of the things that I'd like to add to the discussion are the revenue numbers in Francophone media. Of the cities mentioned, several are below 500k in terms of population, and some have high unemployment rates and crashing slowing economies. However, in French-Canadian markets (or markets where Francophones constitute a major presence), there are some interesting stats regarding media penetration and competition. I posted this to Twitter about three weeks ago.

These markets all have their own local Radio-Canada affiliate in French (except Kingston, which uses Ottawa's), a population of over 150k and with the exception of Saguenay and St. John's, very strong economies. For example, the current unemployment rate in Québec and Lévis is 5%, lower than the provincial and national average. It also have 8 - 10 major company headquarters in the city. That would make it the biggest and most important market in CanPL to date, if it accepts. 

The main bonus though would be the media revenue. Radio-Canada has almost no competition for sports coverage, as Québecor (owners of TVA) make you pay separately for TVA Sports, and RDS (French TSN) is not standard on all packages, and does not cover the Impact at all. However, all French speakers, whether online, via TV or through their car's radio antenna, get Radio-Canada. From a major network perspective as well, Radio-Canada is one of the most watched networks in French markets, with much deeper market penetration than the CBC in English. 

Currently, the CanPL has no penetration in French (literally, they haven't even bothered to translate the site... bèn voyons) and Francophones and french-speakers compose 30% of the country, with a population of around 10-million coast to coast. That's the size of Sweden! This is a market that lacks major sports coverage (TVA Sports shows high school sports, and Ultimate Frisbee as actual, legitimate sporting shows) and is ripe for the entry of some anchor teams in French markets.  

If Regina is a serious option for the CanPL; I'd like to formally start blustering about three teams in the Québec marketplace; in Québec and Lévis (Stade Telus), Laval and the Rive-Nord (Collège Montmorency) and Gatineau (Parc Ernest-Gaboury - current home of FC Gatineau). Moncton is already here, so I'll skip Stade de Moncton.  

Each of those cities currently has a PLSQ team, an academy structure, and a stadium, and very little media competition.  

 

Welcome to the Voyageurs Forums!

I think they are trying to penetrate Quebec. I seem to remember Paul Berne saying that having a Quebec team at launch or the year after was one of his biggest priorities. I know there has been a bit of buzz about some Quebec cities. But to be honest the league hasn't said anything even about non-Quesbec cities until they are ready. All the Media attention so far is just speculation other than the obvious. There very well could be a couple Quebec teams at launch, just like there could be a Calgary team at launch (there hasn't really been much talk about Calgary so far either).  

Is this the site you are talking about? http://fr.canpl.ca I know that many of the posts to this website have not been translated to french. But these posts are from soccer specific journalists that are writing for a specific market not official CPL news stories. 

I really hope that a couple years in there are at least 3 teams in Quebec. Quebec has some of the strongest soccer development in the country and I am sure that the CPL is doing their best to expand into Quebec.

 

Edited August 1, 2017 by BenFisk'sBiggestFan

[Ansem]

Since this is a "speculation" thread, here's my speculation:

of the 16 teams that's supposed to form the Canadian Premier League Division1, 3 spots are set aside for Toronto, Montreal Island and Metro Vancouver

I see Quebec City team being the catalyst to have investors wanting to own a CPL Montreal team. Those 2 cities rivalry transcends sports but Quebec City needs to be 1st

[BringBackTheBlizzard]

15 minutes ago, Ansem said:

...of the 16 teams that's supposed to form the Canadian Premier League Division1, 3 spots are set aside for Toronto, Montreal Island and Metro Vancouver...

That's not at all clear at this point on the three MLS markets and neither is the 16 teams forming a single "division 1" given all that's been stated as far as I am aware is that pro/rel isn't going to even be considered unless they have 16 teams. Another way of reading that statement is that it's the minimum number of teams needed for two divisions with pro/rel to be reasonably viable given 8 teams can easily play a 4 x 7 = 28 game format. Moving from 15 teams in one tier to 16 teams in two tiers is a lot easier to do in logistical terms than moving from 15 teams in one tier to having 16 teams in a top tier along with a completely new second tier beneath it.

Edited August 1, 2017 by BringBackTheBlizzard

[ChrisinOrleans]

20 minutes ago, BenFisk'sBiggestFan said:

Welcome to the Voyageurs Forums!

I think they are trying to penetrate Quebec. I seem to remember Paul Berne saying that having a Quebec team at launch or the year after was one of his biggest priorities. I know there has been a bit of buzz about some Quebec cities. But to be honest the league hasn't said anything even about non-Quesbec cities until they are ready. All the Media attention so far is just speculation other than the obvious. There very well could be a couple Quebec teams at launch, just like there could be a Calgary team at launch (there hasn't really been much talk about Calgary so far either).  

Is this the site you are talking about? http://fr.canpl.ca I know that many of the posts to this website have not been translated to french. But these posts are from soccer specific journalists that are writing for a specific market not official CPL news stories. 

I really hope that a couple years in there are at least 3 teams in Quebec. Quebec has some of the strongest soccer development in the country and I am sure that the CPL is doing their best to expand into Quebec.

 

That .fr link must be a new add-on! Thanks, I've bookmarked it. 

[Ansem]

2 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said:

That's not at all clear at this point on the three MLS markets and neither is the 16 teams forming a single division given all that's been stated as far as I am aware is that pro/rel isn't going to even be considered unless they have 16 teams. Another way of reading that statement is that it's the minimum number of teams needed for two divisions to be reasonably viable given 8 teams can easily play a 4 x 7 = 28 game format. Moving from 15 teams in one tier to 16 teams in two tiers is a lot easier to do in logistical terms than moving from 15 teams in one tier to having 16 teams in a top tier along with a completely new second tier beneath it.

I wasn't talking about pro/rel at all but the league vacating the 3 cities would be idiotic on epic proportions. Since I doubt the people involved are that dumb, my speculation is it happens down the road.

[C2SKI]

1 hour ago, ted said:

Sorry to go so far back but I missed this earlier.

Yes, you misheard. The Highlanders front office has no interest in CanPL, and no ability to even consider CanPL as an option currently. The only way the Highlanders get involved is if someone with "deep pockets" buys the team.

Yeah I don't think there's the financial backing to even consider it right now, but god do I hope they find it.