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CPL new teams speculation

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From what I remember Duane Rollins was pushing the K/W as the eighth team scenario around this time last year. Don't remember if he was also adding the Bob Young to bankroll it angle but that has appeared on here in the past.

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Think if there's an eighth club added for next year easiest would be Fraser Valley with an easy stadium setup available at the LEC where its ready to add 7k seating basically and has existing parking, etc already for the 5K arena already on the site. Plus, Pacific FC owners have all along said they're still interested and working on a CPL club in the Surrey/Langley area since before they had to move to the island for 2019.

We'll know in a few weeks for sure if an 8th club will be added or not for 2020.

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I strongly suspect it will be 7 and Duane Rollins was being used last week to lower expectations, but we'll see what happens. If year one has shown anything with the success of Halifax it is that stadium location can make a big difference. The LEC is less than ideal on that. If there was a way that the old Centennial Stadium location behind the Kitchener Rangers' arena could be prepared quickly for use then Kitchener might be a stronger contender:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/43°26'49.0"N+80°28'01.0"W/@43.4469444,-80.4691331,769m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d43.4469444!4d-80.4669444

but it didn't seem to figure in Barry Maclean's plans prior to the launch, so that may not be possible.

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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looks like usl league one team lansing ignite is folding but they will pump a bunch of mls reserve teams in there and the show will go on..or should we say the no-show with the average attendance of most reserve teams in the hundreds

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33 minutes ago, Big_M said:

looks like usl league one team lansing ignite is folding but they will pump a bunch of mls reserve teams in there and the show will go on..or should we say the no-show with the average attendance of most reserve teams in the hundreds

After only one season in USL One.

Which further proves my point that USL franchises have no real value.

USL is a dead end for Ottawa.

Edited by narduch

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USL franchises may have no real value, but the one thing the USL has that the CPL does not have yet is critical mass - at least in the USL Championship.  One team disappearing and there may be another one or two coming in to replace them.  Although I definitely prefer the CPL for Ottawa, I would not dismiss the USL as a perfectly fine business model.  

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1 hour ago, JamboAl said:

USL franchises may have no real value, but the one thing the USL has that the CPL does not have yet is critical mass - at least in the USL Championship.  One team disappearing and there may be another one or two coming in to replace them.  Although I definitely prefer the CPL for Ottawa, I would not dismiss the USL as a perfectly fine business model.  

And they have MLS behind them.  Cant overlook that.  As for a business model...we need Mr Parrot to take apart the USL the way he does the CPL and see if the model is any good.  They have added 30 teams in the last 4 years and absorbed another 4 NASL clubs.  You have to admire their agressiveness.  

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I'm going to be fascinated to see what happens with the USL when MLS eventually does stop expanding.  Because right now, I get the feeling the bigger teams in USL are just using it as a proving ground for MLS, and that MLS is more than happy to scoop them up at their leisure.  But once MLS is done (with whatever number that ends up at), I'll be interested to see how many owners really want to keep investing in USL.

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You take the top 4-5 USL off the top (bigger clubs bucking for MLS) and disregard the bottom 10 as reserve teams and failures...and what do you have??  A mixed bag of clubs ranging from 7000 down to 2300 attendance (announced for Mr parrot, take it as you will but lets at least compare apples with apples). Hmmmm, doesnt sound too diffferent than what we have in the CPL after one year.   But as someone said above, we dont have the numbers to absorb any failures.  So after rushing a few teams to make sure the league gets off the ground it wouldnt surprise me if Saskatoon, a second BC team and a PQ team are not going to be pressured in if its not ready.  Ottawa would bring something positive to the league ASAP, but thats a whole other kettle of fish.  

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6 hours ago, JamboAl said:

USL franchises may have no real value, but the one thing the USL has that the CPL does not have yet is critical mass - at least in the USL Championship.  One team disappearing and there may be another one or two coming in to replace them.  Although I definitely prefer the CPL for Ottawa, I would not dismiss the USL as a perfectly fine business model.  

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

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4 hours ago, narduch said:

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

I agree that the USL is a dead end if you are ambitious.  But OSEG’s ambitions may not extend beyond having 17 guaranteed home dates to occupy the stadium without losing a boat load of money.  They likely have a bunch of sunk costs and until those obligations are extinguished, they don’t see the CPL as an option.  In their minds, it’s up to CPL to prove they are worthy of having a team in Ottawa when they have first mover rights.  Is it arrogant: yeah, kind of.  But I get it.

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I really hope CONCACAF and FIFA step in again with regards to Ottawa Fury playing in the USL. They have absolutely no reason to still be playing in the US system. So far, I think we can agree that the CPL has been, for the most part, a considerable success. We are even now seeing players being called up from CPL clubs for the Canadian national team. What benefit does the Fury have playing in the USL at this point? The adjustment to the CPL in many aspects would not be too difficult for them. They would still be guaranteed 15 home games a year (3 less than they are currently getting, this includes the Voyageurs Cup).

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5 hours ago, narduch said:

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

That is my take on it.  The value of some USL franchises right now is based on the idea that they can springboard into MLS and then have something of real value.  Once MLS reaches some reasonable maximum number, that potential is basically dead, and teams (and league) will be valued solely on the business model of continued existence as America's D2 and MLS's reserve league. 

For context:

NFL has 32 teams.

NBA has 30 teams.

MLB has 30 teams.

NHL has 31 teams.

That seems like a really consistent maximum number of teams that mainly US leagues can hit and sustain.  As of this year, MLS has 24 teams.  That would suggest that they have room to siphon off another 6-8 USL clubs at most before hitting their ceiling - and this doesn't factor in soccer's reduced popularity (which could lower the ceiling). 

Flogging a deceased equine at this point, but it is hard to picture how this could be a better prospect than participation in Canada's D1 league.

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This is slightly off topic, but I wonder in hindsight if MLS regrets giving franchises to Montreal and Vancouver. 

I do think it's the sunk costs that are keeping Ottawa in USL. But as I stated before, the longer they stay out of CPL the harder it will be to join. 

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2 hours ago, narduch said:

This is slightly off topic, but I wonder in hindsight if MLS regrets giving franchises to Montreal and Vancouver. 

I do think it's the sunk costs that are keeping Ottawa in USL. But as I stated before, the longer they stay out of CPL the harder it will be to join. 

Why would they regret it? Cross border problems were there as soon as you let TFC in so poaching another 2 big markets was a no brainer.  Specifically Van and Impact are fairly successful stable clubs.  Vancouver is in the top half and Impact are lower but not bottom with attendance.  Both have had some marquee players over the years that brought prestige to the league.  

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If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

ottawa fury last game of 2019 5500 attendance.jpg

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5 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

ottawa fury last game of 2019 5500 attendance.jpg

Can we get a parrot analysis on that please?

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10 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

ottawa fury last game of 2019 5500 attendance.jpg

It was raining and 2/3 of the crowd was in the concourse under cover (not seen in the screenshot).  I recall it coming down pretty good until halftime.

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The relevance of most of this to new teams for CanPL? Some people on here still seem to have a pathetic CanPL vs MLS/USL mentality rather than wanting the totality of Canadian pro soccer to succeed. Last night showed what thirteen seasons of MLS in Canada have done for the quality of the national team. Hopefully CanPL will get through its current rough patch, figure out what it needs to adjust and go from strength to strength in the years ahead with many new strong expansion franchises/clubs emerging so that the totality of Canadian soccer will continue to improve.

Edited by Ozzie_the_parrot

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Relevance is that Ottawa could easily be an 8th CPL team.  Relevance is that part of Ottawas reasoning of staying in the USL was that USL was better for them.  How can this not be at least partially framed as a CPL vs USL debate??  Most of us want the Fury in CPL and think the CPL will be just as important to the quality of the national team in the future as MLS.  So why wouldnt we want nitpickers to give the same scrutiny to USL attendance/health that they do to CPL??  

And how is the CPL going through a "rough patch"??  They are finishing up a successful season, going to have a exciting finale with Calgary/Hamilton, they have had Can champ and CONCACAF success and we are seeing CDN players bloosom and get to the CMNT already.  .  

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On 10/10/2019 at 2:32 PM, Kent said:

So it looks like you think your premise proves itself. If they had another team, you add that team to what they currently have, and that makes a bigger number.

By the same logic they would have been better off adding random men's league teams to the league. Or heck, random U12 teams to the league. Because they have 7 teams but if they brought in Sudbury U12 Boys into the league they would have 8. OMG WHY DIDN'T THEY THINK OF THIS!!!!

I know from first-hand experience, the Sudbury U12 Boys team (teams actually, we have quite a few in local leagues at that age bracket) outdraws TFCII, especially when they do the big year-end matches at James Jerome. That said, most of those in attendance for the Sudbury U12 Boys aren't really watching the match, but hey, they're still there!

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For the naysayers who dont understand how complex getting the stadium part truly is...

No joke...this is unbelievably hard and the parrots saying that "CPL owners should just build downtown" don't understand the complexity of municipal politics and urban planning.

No serious city gives up downtown prime land away without MASSIVE add-ons by the sport team, meaning you have to throw lots of extras to make it an offer they can't refuse.

Has nothing to do with CPL going through a rough patch or investors reconsidering. The silly things some people say...

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3 minutes ago, Ansem said:

For the naysayers who dont understand how complex getting the stadium part truly is...

No joke...this is unbelievably hard and the parrots saying that "CPL owners should just build downtown" don't understand the complexity of municipal politics and urban planning.

No serious city gives up downtown prime land away without MASSIVE add-ons by the sport team, meaning you have to throw lots of extras to make it an offer they can't refuse.

Has nothing to do with CPL going through a rough patch or investors reconsidering. The silly things some people say...

Just look at the joke that is NYCFC

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