CPL new teams speculation

[narduch]

6 hours ago, JamboAl said:

USL franchises may have no real value, but the one thing the USL has that the CPL does not have yet is critical mass - at least in the USL Championship.  One team disappearing and there may be another one or two coming in to replace them.  Although I definitely prefer the CPL for Ottawa, I would not dismiss the USL as a perfectly fine business model.  

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

[JamboAl]

4 hours ago, narduch said:

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

I agree that the USL is a dead end if you are ambitious.  But OSEG’s ambitions may not extend beyond having 17 guaranteed home dates to occupy the stadium without losing a boat load of money.  They likely have a bunch of sunk costs and until those obligations are extinguished, they don’t see the CPL as an option.  In their minds, it’s up to CPL to prove they are worthy of having a team in Ottawa when they have first mover rights.  Is it arrogant: yeah, kind of.  But I get it.

[dnina10]

I really hope CONCACAF and FIFA step in again with regards to Ottawa Fury playing in the USL. They have absolutely no reason to still be playing in the US system. So far, I think we can agree that the CPL has been, for the most part, a considerable success. We are even now seeing players being called up from CPL clubs for the Canadian national team. What benefit does the Fury have playing in the USL at this point? The adjustment to the CPL in many aspects would not be too difficult for them. They would still be guaranteed 15 home games a year (3 less than they are currently getting, this includes the Voyageurs Cup).

[dyslexic nam]

5 hours ago, narduch said:

Another poster here was trying to make the point that once MLS stops expanding, USL franchise values would sky rocket. So Ottawa should stay in USL. 

My argument is that USL franchises have little value. The franchise fees don't translate into franchise value. 

There is also talk of Fresno throwing in the keys as well in the USL Championship. 

 

That is my take on it.  The value of some USL franchises right now is based on the idea that they can springboard into MLS and then have something of real value.  Once MLS reaches some reasonable maximum number, that potential is basically dead, and teams (and league) will be valued solely on the business model of continued existence as America's D2 and MLS's reserve league. 

For context:

NFL has 32 teams.

NBA has 30 teams.

MLB has 30 teams.

NHL has 31 teams.

That seems like a really consistent maximum number of teams that mainly US leagues can hit and sustain.  As of this year, MLS has 24 teams.  That would suggest that they have room to siphon off another 6-8 USL clubs at most before hitting their ceiling - and this doesn't factor in soccer's reduced popularity (which could lower the ceiling). 

Flogging a deceased equine at this point, but it is hard to picture how this could be a better prospect than participation in Canada's D1 league.

[narduch]

This is slightly off topic, but I wonder in hindsight if MLS regrets giving franchises to Montreal and Vancouver. 

I do think it's the sunk costs that are keeping Ottawa in USL. But as I stated before, the longer they stay out of CPL the harder it will be to join. 

[Bison44]

2 hours ago, narduch said:

This is slightly off topic, but I wonder in hindsight if MLS regrets giving franchises to Montreal and Vancouver. 

I do think it's the sunk costs that are keeping Ottawa in USL. But as I stated before, the longer they stay out of CPL the harder it will be to join. 

Why would they regret it? Cross border problems were there as soon as you let TFC in so poaching another 2 big markets was a no brainer.  Specifically Van and Impact are fairly successful stable clubs.  Vancouver is in the top half and Impact are lower but not bottom with attendance.  Both have had some marquee players over the years that brought prestige to the league.  

[CDNFootballer]

If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

[fil]

 

 

[Scottie]

5 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

Can we get a parrot analysis on that please?

[JamboAl]

10 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

If its sunk costs then Fury will likely be in USL another 7 years as they apparently are paying their expansion fee over a 10 year span.

Attendance for them dropped another 4.1% this year with them averaging 4555 (from 2018's 4752 per game), and down 16% from 2017 when they drew 5427 per game in their first year in USL. Announced attendance figures of course.

Here's a screen shot of the Fury's final regular season game of 2019, announced attendance 5539 :

 

It was raining and 2/3 of the crowd was in the concourse under cover (not seen in the screenshot).  I recall it coming down pretty good until halftime.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

The relevance of most of this to new teams for CanPL? Some people on here still seem to have a pathetic CanPL vs MLS/USL mentality rather than wanting the totality of Canadian pro soccer to succeed. Last night showed what thirteen seasons of MLS in Canada have done for the quality of the national team. Hopefully CanPL will get through its current rough patch, figure out what it needs to adjust and go from strength to strength in the years ahead with many new strong expansion franchises/clubs emerging so that the totality of Canadian soccer will continue to improve.

Edited October 16, 2019 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Bison44]

Relevance is that Ottawa could easily be an 8th CPL team.  Relevance is that part of Ottawas reasoning of staying in the USL was that USL was better for them.  How can this not be at least partially framed as a CPL vs USL debate??  Most of us want the Fury in CPL and think the CPL will be just as important to the quality of the national team in the future as MLS.  So why wouldnt we want nitpickers to give the same scrutiny to USL attendance/health that they do to CPL??  

And how is the CPL going through a "rough patch"??  They are finishing up a successful season, going to have a exciting finale with Calgary/Hamilton, they have had Can champ and CONCACAF success and we are seeing CDN players bloosom and get to the CMNT already.  .  

[Rintaran]

On 10/10/2019 at 2:32 PM, Kent said:

So it looks like you think your premise proves itself. If they had another team, you add that team to what they currently have, and that makes a bigger number.

By the same logic they would have been better off adding random men's league teams to the league. Or heck, random U12 teams to the league. Because they have 7 teams but if they brought in Sudbury U12 Boys into the league they would have 8. OMG WHY DIDN'T THEY THINK OF THIS!!!!

I know from first-hand experience, the Sudbury U12 Boys team (teams actually, we have quite a few in local leagues at that age bracket) outdraws TFCII, especially when they do the big year-end matches at James Jerome. That said, most of those in attendance for the Sudbury U12 Boys aren't really watching the match, but hey, they're still there!

[Ansem]

For the naysayers who dont understand how complex getting the stadium part truly is...

No joke...this is unbelievably hard and the parrots saying that "CPL owners should just build downtown" don't understand the complexity of municipal politics and urban planning.

No serious city gives up downtown prime land away without MASSIVE add-ons by the sport team, meaning you have to throw lots of extras to make it an offer they can't refuse.

Has nothing to do with CPL going through a rough patch or investors reconsidering. The silly things some people say...

[narduch]

3 minutes ago, Ansem said:

For the naysayers who dont understand how complex getting the stadium part truly is...

No joke...this is unbelievably hard and the parrots saying that "CPL owners should just build downtown" don't understand the complexity of municipal politics and urban planning.

No serious city gives up downtown prime land away without MASSIVE add-ons by the sport team, meaning you have to throw lots of extras to make it an offer they can't refuse.

Has nothing to do with CPL going through a rough patch or investors reconsidering. The silly things some people say...

Just look at the joke that is NYCFC

[CDNFootballer]

8 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

 Last night showed what thirteen seasons of MLS in Canada have done for the quality of the national team. Hopefully CanPL will get through its current rough patch, figure out what it needs to adjust and go from strength to strength in the years ahead with many new strong expansion franchises/clubs emerging so that the totality of Canadian soccer will continue to improve.

Many Americans complaining after last night that there were too many MLS players on their NT.

Rough patch? I know your a glass half empty guy but is that how you seriously see our D1 league after its largely successful launch and first season?

[m-g-williams]

9 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Some people on here still seem to have a pathetic CanPL vs MLS/USL mentality rather than wanting the totality of Canadian pro soccer to succeed.

If you honestly do want the totality of Canadian pro soccer to succeed, you sure have a weird damn way of showing it. 

[Watchmen]

4 hours ago, Ansem said:

For the naysayers who dont understand how complex getting the stadium part truly is...

No joke...this is unbelievably hard and the parrots saying that "CPL owners should just build downtown" don't understand the complexity of municipal politics and urban planning.

No serious city gives up downtown prime land away without MASSIVE add-ons by the sport team, meaning you have to throw lots of extras to make it an offer they can't refuse.

Has nothing to do with CPL going through a rough patch or investors reconsidering. The silly things some people say...

All true.  But CPL optimists also talked non-stop about the "wave of pop-up stadiums" that would just be springing up all across the country to accommodate the CPL.  None of it's easy.

[Ansem]

1 hour ago, Watchmen said:

All true.  But CPL optimists also talked non-stop about the "wave of pop-up stadiums" that would just be springing up all across the country to accommodate the CPL.  None of it's easy.

True because you need land and not many cities would be as generous as Halifax to provide/lease public land in such a prime location.

Even if an ownership acquires land, the city might not have zoned it for that purpose.

That's why it's dragging for expansion. It's hard to navigate this issue.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

13 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Many Americans complaining after last night that there were too many MLS players on their NT.

And what's that supposed to prove? They have ten times our population. For every player like Alphonso Davies that we have at a club like Bayern Munich they could reasonably expect to have ten players of similar calibre at a similar sort of level over in Europe. If they did, there would be very few MLS players in their starting XI.

Edit: {interesting graphic from Reddit on the background of national team players, which helps explain why it doesn't work like that}

13 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Rough patch? I know your a glass half empty guy but is that how you seriously see our D1 league after its largely successful launch and first season?

What's your point? I am not a paid shill, so if I see the last six weeks of the season becoming stale with fans drifting away because nothing much is at stake due to the two team playoff format, I am going to post about what is actually happening. Hopefully they make the adjustments needed to avoid that ever happening again.

Beyond that we have two D1's active in Canada and the flagship for our sport in media interest terms is MLS, which means it is our top domestic league de facto in much the same way the NHL is for hockey, the NBA is for basketball and MLB is for baseball. The best thing that could happen next season is for people to drop the whole CanPL vs MLS/USL mentality and accept there is a place for both.

 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Ozzie_the_parrot

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/sports/local-sports/cpl-commissioner-clanachan-elated-with-inaugural-season-364136/

...Clanachan is a proponent of expansion but wouldn't confirm if more teams would be added for 2020.

"We have a number of pots on the stove that are on different levels of boil," he said.

"I need to make sure I don't rush them in. I don't want them to fall. We're getting some tremendous interest."

[Big_M]

gosh now he has stepped it up to say mls is our top domestic league

[narduch]

Just now, Big_M said:

gosh now he has stepped it up to say mls is our top domestic league

He calls it MLS/USL.

Like we need to bow to our American overlords.

[Aird25]

I seriously think we need to implement a down vote option. 

[Big_M]

6 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

 

Beyond that we have two D1's active in Canada and the flagship for our sport in media interest terms is MLS, which means it is our top domestic league de facto in much the same way the NHL is for hockey, the NBA is for basketball and MLB is for baseball. The best thing that could happen next season is for people to drop the whole CanPL vs MLS/USL mentality and accept there is a place for both.

 

gotta quote this before he can change it..but he wont anyway