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34 minutes ago, Alex said:

The easiest draw goes to Belize.

Check out who Belize play:

Bahamas 

Montserrat

Puerto Rico

Guyana

they avoided played a pot A team because they got the extra B vs C team on that match day instead 

With 4 wins, which is doable with that draw, Belize will end up in the top 6.

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23 hours ago, Lou said:

The results of Nations League Qualifying will be compiled into an aggregate table, ranking the participating teams 1-34 based on points earned, goal difference and a series of additional tie breakers.

Don't think anyone has talked about this yet: With one table of 34 teams, each playing just four matches, there are going to be a lot of teams tied on total points at the end of qualifying. If the next tiebreaker is goal difference, there will be no reason to take it easy on the weakest teams. If you're up by 5 or 6 goals at half time against the likes of Monserrat or USVI, better not take your foot off the gas in the second half, as that could cost you on goal difference. This doesn't apply just at the top, but throughout the table as teams try to qualify for Leagues B and C. And I would think qualifying #1 in the table would put a team in a better position for the Gold Cup "draw" than qualifying #10. Or qualifying #1 would be better than qualifying #6 when it comes to seeding for League A. Even teams virtually assured of qualifying should try to fill the minnows' nets.

Could get ugly, but I don't know what the alternative is. Can't really throw out the results against the lowest-ranked X number of teams like they do in UEFA, when there's an unbalanced schedule.

 

/Treppy2/ 

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I alluded to that in one of my posts a few pages back. Now that the sched. is out i'd like to point out we're at a disadvantage in regards to tiebreak because we are on the road vs. our Pot D team while Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and Martinique are at home. On the flip side we benefit by having our Pot A game at home, which is probably the bigger advantage.

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Forgive me for not sharing everyone's excitement but this qualifying phase is bull$hit.  Just use the new ranking index to place teams in leagues and start in September with the real thing!  If you don't like your league then earn promotion.  I was looking forward to meaningful games against real opponents after two years on the sidelines but now we need to wait another year.  

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10 hours ago, Alex said:

I'll say +15 even 

That's an average of 3-4 goals per game, which is not unreasonable, because while we may struggle to break down at least one of those opponents, settling for a 1-0 grind, we'll likely blow another one out by 5 or 6 goals.

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1 hour ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Forgive me for not sharing everyone's excitement but this qualifying phase is bull$hit.  Just use the new ranking index to place teams in leagues and start in September with the real thing!  If you don't like your league then earn promotion.  I was looking forward to meaningful games against real opponents after two years on the sidelines but now we need to wait another year.  

A problem with that is that some teams would be denied the chance of even attempting to qualify for the Gold Cup.

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6 hours ago, Treppy2 said:

Don't think anyone has talked about this yet: With one table of 34 teams, each playing just four matches, there are going to be a lot of teams tied on total points at the end of qualifying. If the next tiebreaker is goal difference, there will be no reason to take it easy on the weakest teams. If you're up by 5 or 6 goals at half time against the likes of Monserrat or USVI, better not take your foot off the gas in the second half, as that could cost you on goal difference. This doesn't apply just at the top, but throughout the table as teams try to qualify for Leagues B and C. And I would think qualifying #1 in the table would put a team in a better position for the Gold Cup "draw" than qualifying #10. Or qualifying #1 would be better than qualifying #6 when it comes to seeding for League A. Even teams virtually assured of qualifying should try to fill the minnows' nets.

Could get ugly, but I don't know what the alternative is. Can't really throw out the results against the lowest-ranked X number of teams like they do in UEFA, when there's an unbalanced schedule.

 

/Treppy2/ 

Does anybody know mathematically the maximum number of teams that can get 4 wins? If we were to assume that they would all come from Pot A I think the max would be 4 (because the 8 teams all have a game against another Pot A team) which would safely get you in League A and the Gold Cup without worrying about tie breakers. However I am sure you could probably draw up a scenario where several more teams could run the table. I don’t know how many though. And yes, of course goals will be important, especially in the event of a draw. With the Pot A game happening last there isn’t any motivation to hold back against the Pot D teams.

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Yeah - and I don't consider them meaningless games.  Sure they are relatively minor, but it's not like we are giants of global footy.  We need to earn a spot.  And the games matter - they are official, cap-tying matches.  It may not be ideal from a CMNT perspective, but I get the rationale and am not really annoyed with it.

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13 minutes ago, Kent said:

A problem with that is that some teams would be denied the chance of even attempting to qualify for the Gold Cup.

OK that's a fair point.  To that I'd say they could've done the qualifying in the last 3 windows and the coming March window when those teams weren't doing anything anyway.

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39 minutes ago, Kent said:

Does anybody know mathematically the maximum number of teams that can get 4 wins? If we were to assume that they would all come from Pot A I think the max would be 4 (because the 8 teams all have a game against another Pot A team) which would safely get you in League A and the Gold Cup without worrying about tie breakers. However I am sure you could probably draw up a scenario where several more teams could run the table. I don’t know how many though.

For sure only 4 teams from Pot A can finish with 12 points for the reason you mention. And the 4 losing Pot A teams could also lose their match against the Pot B team. And provided those winning Pot B teams do not play each other they could also win 4 games. And all 8 of those winning teams play against Pot C, leaving one Pot C team that could also win all 4, with suitable Pot A and Pot B match ups. For a total of at least 9 (could actually be more). Yeah, not gonna happen!!

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58 minutes ago, Northvansteve said:

+20 

Nothing less is acceptable!

I'll call your 20 and raise to 25. Or 37.

Of course one could alternatively focus on the tangible objective, which is to qualify for League A, and just say that defines success rather than some arbitrarily chosen goal difference.

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23 hours ago, MtlMario said:

4 wins and a minimum +10 goal dif. is a must I would think against these teams.

Oh how soon we forget:

Oct. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 Puerto Rico
Nov. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 St. Kitts and Nevis
Jul. 7, 2013 Canada 0-1 Martinique
Sept. 8, 2013 Canada 0-0 Mauritania
Sept. 11, 2013 Canada 0-1 Mauritania
Jun. 11, 2015 Canada 2-0 Dominica
Sept. 8, 2015 Canada 1-1 Belize
Jun. 3, 2016 Canada 1-1 Azerbaijan
Jun. 7, 2016 Canada 2-1 Uzbekistan
Jun. 13, 2017 Canada 2-1 Curacao

 

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6 minutes ago, El Hombre said:

Oh how soon we forget:

Oct. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 Puerto Rico
Nov. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 St. Kitts and Nevis
Jul. 7, 2013 Canada 0-1 Martinique
Sept. 8, 2013 Canada 0-0 Mauritania
Sept. 11, 2013 Canada 0-1 Mauritania
Jun. 11, 2015 Canada 2-0 Dominica
Sept. 8, 2015 Canada 1-1 Belize
Jun. 3, 2016 Canada 1-1 Azerbaijan
Jun. 7, 2016 Canada 2-1 Uzbekistan
Jun. 13, 2017 Canada 2-1 Curacao

 

We shouldn't be looking to repeat history but to learn and improve from it.( I'm sure someone famous must of said something like this) :P.

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Playing against these teams won’t be a walkover (although they should be) considering are history against way lesser teams. Look at Belize in 2018 Wcqs and the 2 draws from 2014 Wcqs. This will be great practice for us. Especially the games away from home

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42 minutes ago, El Hombre said:

Oh how soon we forget:

Oct. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 Puerto Rico
Nov. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 St. Kitts and Nevis
Jul. 7, 2013 Canada 0-1 Martinique
Sept. 8, 2013 Canada 0-0 Mauritania
Sept. 11, 2013 Canada 0-1 Mauritania
Jun. 11, 2015 Canada 2-0 Dominica
Sept. 8, 2015 Canada 1-1 Belize
Jun. 3, 2016 Canada 1-1 Azerbaijan
Jun. 7, 2016 Canada 2-1 Uzbekistan
Jun. 13, 2017 Canada 2-1 Curacao

 

I agree with your point but I'm not sure the results against Azerbaijan and specially Uzbekistan have their places in your list. A 2-1 win at a neutral site against the Uzbeks is a solid result for our MNT.

Anyways, I think we should expect our MNT to qualify for League A but I'm not sure it's important to expect a certain amount of goals. 4 wins is the only thing that is important.

 

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1 hour ago, El Hombre said:

Oh how soon we forget:

Oct. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 Puerto Rico
Nov. 11, 2011 Canada 0-0 St. Kitts and Nevis
Jul. 7, 2013 Canada 0-1 Martinique
Sept. 8, 2013 Canada 0-0 Mauritania
Sept. 11, 2013 Canada 0-1 Mauritania
Jun. 11, 2015 Canada 2-0 Dominica
Sept. 8, 2015 Canada 1-1 Belize
Jun. 3, 2016 Canada 1-1 Azerbaijan
Jun. 7, 2016 Canada 2-1 Uzbekistan
Jun. 13, 2017 Canada 2-1 Curacao

 

A lot of these are good examples, however a few aren't really.

Here are the Elo rankings for the teams we are going to be playing, Canada is currently 77:

US Virgin Islands (215)
Dominica (189)
Saint Kitts and Nevis (148)
French Guiana (115)

Whereas, a few of the examples:

Martinique (99)
Azerbaijan (109)
Uzbekistan (61)

It could be argued that Martinique are pretty close to the caliber for French Guiana, and certainly ranked lower than Canada. But Uzbekistan definitely doesn't fit the list

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